Suffolk University and WHDH-TV New Hampshire Poll, Ron tied for 2d with 14% [Archive]

sailingaway

11-21-2011, 10:04 PM

In part:

With just seven weeks before voters head to the polls, Gingrich appears to have momentum – going from 4 percent in a similar poll two months ago, to 14 percent now – but is still far behind Romney.

It contradicts another poll -- released last week and conducted by New Hampshire Journal/Magellan Strategies -- that showed Gingrich and Romney in a dead heat in New Hampshire.

Suffolk’s statewide survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters was conducted Nov. 16-20 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

The race still remains volatile.

Nine percent of voters surveyed said they were undecided, and more than half said they were either somewhat or very likely to change their minds before the Jan. 10 primary.

http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/11/romney-maintains-lead-new-poll/WcRRRSkxl5RhvpCMpmRiuI/index.html

I wonder if it really contradicts the earlier poll or if Gingrich is already headed down?

pulp8721

11-21-2011, 10:11 PM

We're fluctuating between 12-15%, we need an explosion to lift this rocket to the moon!

Fermli

11-21-2011, 10:12 PM

I assume this is going on RCP since Suffolk polls have appeared on RCP in the past. Correct?

bluesc

11-21-2011, 10:14 PM

Not bad :)

Why Gingrich can't win? His weakness in early states, despite his surge. He's already done.

FSP-Rebel

11-21-2011, 10:14 PM

Paul get's 14% yalll

Agorism

11-21-2011, 10:15 PM

Why these always come out late at night lol.

Normally they at least wait until 12 eastern that way their poll can officially come out on the next day.

Agorism

11-21-2011, 10:15 PM

I hope we see some more Iowa polls soon (hopefully not Rasmussen though)

69360

11-21-2011, 10:18 PM

In part:

http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/11/romney-maintains-lead-new-poll/WcRRRSkxl5RhvpCMpmRiuI/index.html

I wonder if it really contradicts the earlier poll or if Gingrich is already headed down?

I'd need crosstabs to tell, no idea who and how they are polling.

I assume this is going on RCP since Suffolk polls have appeared on RCP in the past. Correct?

Not unless they release crosstabs and methodology. RCP requires that.

Agorism

11-21-2011, 10:18 PM

sailingaway

11-21-2011, 10:18 PM

This is a VERY interesting write up of it, including some dish on a new endorsement for Romney being tied with raising taxes.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/like-granite-romney-preserves-wide-lead-in-new-hampshire-20111121?mrefid=election2012

sailingaway

11-21-2011, 10:20 PM

I'd need crosstabs to tell, no idea who and how they are polling.

Not unless they release crosstabs and methodology. RCP requires that.

Ron is apparently where he was before (see my second link), but Gingrich is up in this poll. I meant Gingrich might have dropped since the one last week, but it is a different pollster, so I can only guess.

pauliticalfan

11-21-2011, 10:24 PM

Hell yeah, tied for second in New Hampshire. We're in the game folks. Donate to the Superbomb so we can get to New Hampshire!

69360

11-21-2011, 10:25 PM

You know Romney has almost half the vote in that state.

Basically whoever wins Iowa might have a chance at a boost to challenge him in that state, but beyond that Romney is going to win that state.

That's why we need Iowa.

It's proportional winning isn't everything. Say Romney gets 30%, which is my prediction as of now and Ron gets 20% which I also believe as of now. Ron could be leading Romney in delegates coming out of NH after a strong Iowa showing.

We are in very good shape here. We don't have to worry about winner take all until April.

Agorism

11-21-2011, 10:27 PM

It's proportional winning isn't everything. Say Romney gets 30%, which is my prediction as of now and Ron gets 20% which I also believe as of now. Ron could be leading Romney in delegates coming out of NH after a strong Iowa showing.

We are in very good shape here. We don't have to worry about winner take all until April.

Whoever wins Iowa will get at least a 10% boost though probably pushing them into first or second. So if we lose Iowa then another candidate could jump ahead of us and even ahead of Romney in NH possibly.

69360

11-21-2011, 10:28 PM

Ron is apparently where he was before (see my second link), but Gingrich is up in this poll. I meant Gingrich might have dropped since the one last week, but it is a different pollster, so I can only guess.

In the vernacular of MR HERMAN CAIN CEO, it could be apples and oranges. There is no way to compare these polls until we know who and how they polled. So I'll have to reserve judgement.

RDM

11-21-2011, 10:28 PM

I'd need crosstabs to tell, no idea who and how they are polling.

Not unless they release crosstabs and methodology. RCP requires that.

Link to crosstabs in pdf format http://www.suffolk.edu/research/50245.html

69360

11-21-2011, 10:31 PM

Whoever wins Iowa will get at least a 10% boost though probably pushing them into first or second. So if we lose Iowa then another candidate could jump ahead of us and even ahead of Romney in NH possibly.

There's really no losing Iowa in a proportional caucus with a 4 way tie for the lead and two soft candidates. It's not winner take all. If we get 20 some percent we have those delegates.

bluesc

11-21-2011, 10:37 PM

Link to crosstabs in pdf format http://www.suffolk.edu/research/50245.html

Thanks!

Ron does very well with liberals, and his 2nd choice numbers are good. NH may be close if Ron wins Iowa.

69360

11-21-2011, 10:39 PM

Link to crosstabs in pdf format http://www.suffolk.edu/research/50245.html

I'm looking it over now. Looks like an accurate poll with no skewing so far. If I find any funny business I'll post it.

unknown

11-21-2011, 10:39 PM

??? Can someone please explain why someone would vote for Romney?

sailingaway

11-21-2011, 10:41 PM

??? Can someone please explain why someone would vote for Romney?

No one can explain that.

shadowhooch

11-21-2011, 10:42 PM

??? Can someone please explain why someone would vote for Romney?

Yeah, why on earth is he so popular in NH? It's not MA or MI. And NH picked McCain last time around. Weird.

AlexAmore

11-21-2011, 10:43 PM

??? Can someone please explain why something would vote for Romney?

fixed.

Anyway if we include an Iowa win boost with an independent voter boost and all the young people with cell phones boost then I think we can do pretty well in NH. Independents are the biggest voting block in NH after all. We'll see.

realtonygoodwin

11-21-2011, 10:44 PM

??? Can someone please explain why someone would vote for Romney?

He polls well against Obama, does well in debates, and is a successful businessman.

RDM

11-21-2011, 10:44 PM

Yeah, why on earth is he so popular in NH? It's not MA or MI. And NH picked McCain last time around. Weird.

He's helped finance half of the politicians up there in elections. In turn those elected officials speak highly of him which influences the voters.

69360

11-21-2011, 10:46 PM

??? Can someone please explain why someone would vote for Romney?

He was a popular governor in MA and has name recognition in NH from it, southern NH shares the Boston media market.

Also he bribed every candidate in Nh for the last few years even in small local races with a $1000 campaign contribution.

parocks

11-21-2011, 10:49 PM

I'd need crosstabs to tell, no idea who and how they are polling.

Not unless they release crosstabs and methodology. RCP requires that.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/11/21/edit.final.new.hampshire.gop.statewide.marginals.n ov.20.2011.pdf

talked to a lot of old, not many young.

no crosstabs, but there is a bit of data there.

10% - 18-34
27% - 65+

69360

11-21-2011, 10:50 PM

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/11/21/edit.final.new.hampshire.gop.statewide.marginals.n ov.20.2011.pdf

talked to a lot of old, not many young.

no crosstabs, but there is a bit of data there.

10% - 18-34
27% - 65+

Somebody posted the crosstabs in this thread. It's a fairly decent sample of all ages.

I trust this poll and think it's accurate.

parocks

11-21-2011, 10:51 PM

He was a popular governor in MA and has name recognition in NH from it, southern NH shares the Boston media market.

Also he bribed every candidate in Nh for the last few years even in small local races with a $1000 campaign contribution.

Southern NH, which shares the Boston media market is most of NH.

There are a lot of people who live in New Hampshire and work in Boston / Mass. Rockingham county is largely Boston suburbs.

69360

11-21-2011, 10:54 PM

Southern NH, which shares the Boston media market is most of NH.

There are a lot of people who live in New Hampshire and work in Boston / Mass. Rockingham county is largely Boston suburbs.

Yep, I've spent some time there, I somewhat know the southern NH area. I've been to coos county/Berlin a few times too.

Esoteric

11-21-2011, 10:55 PM

We're fluctuating between 12-15%, we need an explosion to lift this rocket to the moon!

That explosion is called winning the Iowa Caucus.

69360

11-21-2011, 10:58 PM

That explosion is called winning the Iowa Caucus.

Plus we need the grinch to crash and burn pre-IA.

bluesc

11-21-2011, 11:00 PM

Plus we need the grinch to crash and burn pre-IA.

He will crash and burn if he comes below us in Iowa, which he will.

69360

11-21-2011, 11:07 PM

He will crash and burn if he comes below us in Iowa, which he will.

The grinch and the flaming remanants of Cain need to be finished before Iowa. Ron needs to be the only viable anti-romney going in. That would help immensely. If not even a 4 way split isn't bad.

bluesc

11-21-2011, 11:09 PM

The grinch and the flaming remanants of Cain need to be finished before Iowa. Ron needs to be the only viable anti-romney going in. That would help immensely. If not even a 4 way split isn't bad.

If Ron doesn't win Iowa, it will be Romney. We want a four-way split in the polls to go in under the radar and keep expectations high for them. Perry, Newt, Cain.. They all crash and burn when they lose to Ron in Iowa. We want to come OUT of Iowa as the anti-Romney.

rich34

11-21-2011, 11:12 PM

Paul get's 14% yalll

Yep, I've spent some time there, I somewhat know the southern NH area. I've been to coos county/Berlin a few times too.

He will crash and burn if he comes below us in Iowa, which he will.

Will any negative ads be used against gingrich before the caucus especially on family values which would be an easy target in Christian Iowa?

bluesc

11-21-2011, 11:12 PM

Will any negative ads be used against gingrich before the caucus especially on family values which would be an easy target in Christian Iowa?

No need. He is weak as hell.

speciallyblend

11-21-2011, 11:16 PM

That explosion is called winning the Iowa Caucus.

yes, do you know if indies and dems can switch and vote on election day? NH isn't a caucus right? It is primary vote. just wondered.

parocks

11-21-2011, 11:28 PM

Somebody posted the crosstabs in this thread. It's a fairly decent sample of all ages.

I trust this poll and think it's accurate.

there sure are a ton of crosstabs. they didn't talk to a lot of kids. the bloomberg poll we really liked talked to more kids. That would mean a couple points there.

I didn't see anything screwy with the poll. however many kids they talked to, that's their business, and if they tell us, I'm happy with it.

Agorism

11-21-2011, 11:31 PM

There's really no losing Iowa in a proportional caucus with a 4 way tie for the lead and two soft candidates. It's not winner take all. If we get 20 some percent we have those delegates.

It's about controlling the media going into NH though.

The winner will get a huge boost even if it's by 1%

parocks

11-21-2011, 11:32 PM

That explosion is called winning the Iowa Caucus.

right. We win the Iowa caucus, we damn well better get the press that huge upset victory deserves. That surge helps us in NH.
Then after NH?

I wouldn't just assume that these candidates will all drop out if they're below Paul either.

69360

11-21-2011, 11:39 PM

It's about controlling the media going into NH though.

The winner will get a huge boost even if it's by 1%

You can't control this media and I have no clue if they will even admit that these early races are now proportional.

right. We win the Iowa caucus, we damn well better get the press that huge upset victory deserves. That surge helps us in NH.
Then after NH?

I wouldn't just assume that these candidates will all drop out if they're below Paul either.

No they won't drop out if they still have a mouthpiece in the debate reality tv show. Why would they?

BUSHLIED

11-21-2011, 11:39 PM

If Ron doesn't win Iowa, it will be Romney. We want a four-way split in the polls to go in under the radar and keep expectations high for them. Perry, Newt, Cain.. They all crash and burn when they lose to Ron in Iowa. We want to come OUT of Iowa as the anti-Romney.

Yep, we need to come into NH as everyone gathers around Ron to TRY and defeat Romney in NH (although I would bet Romney still wins NH somehow)...

THis has probably been talked about before but I wonder if Bachmann endorses Paul if she does poorly in IA say fourth place or less prior to the NH primary...a win in IA plus an endorsement from Bachmann might be enough to give the anti-Romney label to Paul...she is the only one I could see giving an endorsement to Ron (and even then it might be unlikely because she'll go back to Congress and is in the House Intelligence Committee)...I doubt anyone is going to pick her a VP....you think?

69360

11-21-2011, 11:44 PM

Yep, we need to come into NH as everyone gathers around Ron to TRY and defeat Romney in NH (although I would bet Romney still wins NH somehow)...

THis has probably been talked about before but I wonder if Bachmann endorses Paul if she does poorly in IA say fourth place or less prior to the NH primary...a win in IA plus an endorsement from Bachmann might be enough to give the anti-Romney label to Paul...she is the only one I could see giving an endorsement to Ron (and even then it might be unlikely because she'll go back to Congress and is in the House Intelligence Committee)...I doubt anyone is going to pick her a VP....you think?

Bachamann isn't running for re-election afik. Her ego is pretty inflated and she's getting a platform to spout from with all these debates. I don't think she'll drop, but who knows.

Bachmann and Palin endorsement after a strong IA finish would help I think more than hurt.

akalucas

11-21-2011, 11:59 PM

There is something wrong with this poll which would make Ron pauls number smaller than it should be. The demographics concerning gender is not realistic. Of the total in 2008 57% males voted and 43% females voted. This poll polled 50% male and 50% female, so in reality there is a 14% spread between the two genders but this poll has a 0% spread which there is no precedent for. since Paul does better with males it is safe to say that he is doing about 3%-4% better than this poll says, which explains why the other poll done last week he did better with 16%. that poll had gender demos at 53% male and 47%, still higher in females than in 2008 but a much better poll gender demographics wise.

sailingaway

11-22-2011, 12:00 AM

NeoconTea

11-22-2011, 12:11 AM

3 man race here, but Gingrich doesn't have much of a shot in my opinion

http://gop2012polls.blogspot.com/2011/11/new-hampshire-primary-1118.html

sailingaway

11-22-2011, 12:40 AM

3 man race here, but Gingrich doesn't have much of a shot in my opinion

http://gop2012polls.blogspot.com/2011/11/new-hampshire-primary-1118.html

He won't last, in my opinion. Even Romney is better than Gingrich, and Romney is unacceptable. To conservatives, I mean.

Agorism

11-22-2011, 12:41 AM

I wanna see some new Iowa polling. Seems we rarely see Iowa polls.

sailingaway

11-22-2011, 12:42 AM

I wanna see some new Iowa polling. Seems we rarely see Iowa polls.

I don't, some junk poll will be next, we just got two good ones. Fox polls with Rasmussen's pollster, and Magellan is the GOP establishment pollster. I don't want theirs, for starters.

parocks

11-22-2011, 02:30 AM

You can't control this media and I have no clue if they will even admit that these early races are now proportional.

No they won't drop out if they still have a mouthpiece in the debate reality tv show. Why would they?

Wouldn't they just stay in to deny Paul delegates?

KingRobbStark

11-22-2011, 02:45 AM

This is great and further proves that the polls before this one is no fluke. Let's keep it up.

da32130

11-22-2011, 08:13 AM

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/edit.FINAL.New.Hampshire.GOP.Statewide.Marginals.N ov.20.2011.pdf

prior post in the AM
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?331833-Suffolk-University-and-WHDH-TV-New-Hampshire-Poll-Ron-tied-for-2d-with-14

RCP new hampshire:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html

trey4sports

11-22-2011, 08:14 AM

not bad.

specsaregood

11-22-2011, 08:20 AM

Wowzer, Johnson got less than Karger and Roemer. Time to hang it up GJ.

Butchie

11-22-2011, 08:33 AM

sailingaway

11-22-2011, 08:34 AM

There is already a long thread on this. I'll find it and merge them.

sailingaway

11-22-2011, 08:46 AM

I love how so many of them feel Romney would say something he believes in even tho he thinks it will be un-popular, makes me think we should not waste our time in NH, those people are completely insane and beyond all hope.

Waste our time? It is proportional delegates. Even if Romney wins, if we take second Ron gets delegates and (should get) good media positioning.