New Gallup Poll (11/13-11-17)

[NeoconTea]

http://gop2012polls.blogspot.com/2011/11/gop-national-update-1121.html

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150845/Romney-Gingrich-Top-Choices-GOP-Nomination.aspx

Gingrich 22
Romney 21
Cain 16
Paul 9
Perry 8
Bachmann 4
Frothy 1
Huntsman 1

Mod: CBS and CNN are both reporting the other Gallup poll, not of 'registered voters' which has Ron at 10%. Most pollsters don't go to registered/likely voters until close to the election because people can still register, and in Ron's case it cuts out first time voter support and switch voters. Even the higher number still cuts out those who don't consider themselves 'Republican' However, use the one you think most appropriate: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57328673-503544/gingrich-and-romney-top-gallup-poll/


Gingrich edged out Romney by one point among registered Republicans, 22 percent to 21 percent, within the poll's four percentage point margin of error.

And Romney topped Gingrich by one point among all Republicans, 20 percent to 19 percent.

Georgia businessman Herman Cain finished third in both categories, with 16 percent.

Texax Rep. Ron Paul was the only other candidate with double digit support. He received 10 percent among all Republicans and 9 percent among registered Republicans.

[Adam West]

What matters now are the early primary states. The voters will come around if the good Doctor does well there.

[NeoconTea]

Romney's the lowest he's been in a while, even if its just a few points off from his highest. I guess thats a good sign, but yeah national isnt THAT important.

[hazek]

National polls are irrelevant.

[NeoconTea]

So is your face

[BrooklynZoo]

As we can see, Cain is on his way down. All that needs to happen here is for Gingrich's policies and past to become better known to primary voters and his numbers will decline as well. Last man standing: Ron Paul.

[muh_roads]

National polls are irrelevant.

They were unfortunately very accurate in 2008.

EDIT: WTF is up with Gingrich...lol Is the media talking about him non-stop or something?

[MaxPower]

Gingrich?!?!? I... I'm at a loss.

[Justinfrom1776]

So is your face

Neg Rep for being a dick.. They are irrelevant, McCain wasn't polling well nationally either at this point in 2007.

[eleganz]

Newt's dirt has been being dug up for the past week or so, it will reflect in his numbers soon just like Cains' did.

[Justinfrom1776]

Newt's dirt has been being dug up for the past week or so, it will reflect in his numbers soon just like Cains' did.

^YUP,, It's important for us to remember that most folks aren't hardcore politicos like we are. We know Gingrich is a fraud and a skeezy lobbyist. It will take the masses a bit longer to figure it out/remember it, we're on our way! I think the most damning statement he's made in terms of Tea Party types was earlier in his campaign on Meet The Press where he referred to Paul Ryan's plan as "Right-Wing social engineering"

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

Newt's dirt has been being dug up for the past week or so, it will reflect in his numbers soon just like Cains' did.Especially if Fox News pundits keep bashing him like they have been! :D

[hazek]

They were unfortunately very accurate in 2008.

Local state polls yes, but national? Maybe a few weeks before super Tuesday..

[SchleckBros]

They were unfortunately very accurate in 2008.

EDIT: WTF is up with Gingrich...lol Is the media talking about him non-stop or something?

If national polls determined the election Giuliani would have won. The only polls that matter are the early states.

[LibertyEsq]

They were unfortunately very accurate in 2008.

EDIT: WTF is up with Gingrich...lol Is the media talking about him non-stop or something?

Uhm how can you determine that national polls were accurate in 2008? Voting is done by state, not nationally. Wasn't Rudy leading nationally when he got 5th or 6th in Iowa

[69360]

These numbers are just fine. As the grinch drops Ron might pick up in the national polls.

National polls really don't matter that much until before super Tuesday. Early state polls are what matter right now, they are more in tune with the candidates right now.

In the next few weeks I think we will see solid low double digit nation poll numbers. That's the way the trend is going.

[nyrgoal99]

When I do phone banking, there are people saying they will vote for Newt, however it is clear his support could change any second from talking to them.

[Original_Intent]

Paul is going to be THE anti-Romney at Iowa. It is unfortunate that the electorate is so uneducated, because by rights Ron should win on his merits, not by being the most attractive alternative to Romney. But I'll take a win, however it comes.

[brendan.orourke]

Is there a good article or commentary on this inexplicable rise of Newt? It really is baffling to me.

[EBounding]

What's important to remember is that Paul has 10% etched in stone nationally unlike all the other candidates. He's the only candidate with a real foundation of support to build upon.

[sailingaway]

I like CNN's write up better, it rounds Ron to 10% and Perry to 8% http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/21/poll-romney-gingrich-tied-for-top-spot/

[SchleckBros]

When I do phone banking, there are people saying they will vote for Newt, however it is clear his support could change any second from talking to them.

Same. Gingrich voters are really weak when you ask them. They'll say I don't know... just put me down for Gingrich or maybe Gingrich but I'm not really sure. All the Gingrich votes are reluctant it seems. It's like they're choosing him just because FoxNews tells them to.

[NeoconTea]

I like CNN's write up better, it rounds Ron to 10% and Perry to 8% http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/21/poll-romney-gingrich-tied-for-top-spot/
There's one with over 1000 GOP + GOP leaning independents
and then there's one with over 900 GOP + GOP leaning independents who are registered voters

The registered voters one is more important, which is why I posted that one.

[NeoconTea]

Same. Gingrich voters are really weak when you ask them. They'll say I don't know... just put me down for Gingrich or maybe Gingrich but I'm not really sure. All the Gingrich votes are reluctant it seems. It's like they're choosing him just because FoxNews tells them to.
Yes. Fox News has been hating on him really hard lately, so I doubt he'll keep up his momentum for long.

[FreeTraveler]

The election isn't tomorrow. Nine percent nationally isn't bad, considering that's up from 5 and 6 percent reports not long ago. Get the Grinch out there where people can kick the tires, and he'll follow Cain down the memory hole. It's trending our way.

[NeoconTea]

None of the 5 and 6 percenters were from fair, unbiased polls. He's been consistently in the 7-10% range for a while now.

[sailingaway]

There's one with over 1000 GOP + GOP leaning independents
and then there's one with over 900 GOP + GOP leaning independents who are registered voters

The registered voters one is more important, which is why I posted that one.

In Iowa you can register at the caucus. In later states there is plenty of time to register, so I'm not sure why the registered voter one, nationally, is more important.

[NeoconTea]

In Iowa you can register at the caucus. In later states there is plenty of time to register, so I'm not sure why the registered voter one, nationally, is more important.
Well, those who are registered to vote are more likely to vote, no?

[sailingaway]

It seems very odd that when TWO polls are posted and you knew of both and one puts Ron in double digits you don't post both.

CBS also seems to consider the one putting Ron at 10% to be the go to poll: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57328673-503544/gingrich-and-romney-top-gallup-poll/

and most polling companies only use registered voters closer to the event. It would be appropriate now in NH, but isn't for a national poll where most states still have time to register. It is self determinative in Ron's case because he has a lot of support from first time voters. So, while registered voters might be the more likely voters for other candidates, when it comes to measuring Ron's support, it doesn't work. Frankly, the whole 'lean Republican' rather than 'which primary will you vote in' bit doesn't work for Ron. I'm going to at least add the other poll to the OP.

[trey4sports]

why is anyone paying attention to NATIONAL polling? Did the nomination come down to Rudy Guiliani and Fred Thompson?

[JamesButabi]

Looks good to me! I will take 8-10% nationally all day for Ron at this point. I'm very encouraged with the answers I receive from the early states.

[Number19]

Looks good to me! I will take 8-10% nationally all day for Ron at this point. I'm very encouraged with the answers I receive from the early states.You can't forget, the Iowa and New Hampshire poll numbers are a direct result of the grass roots outreach combined with the advertising dollars poured into the campaign. Most of the rest of the nation only know RP from what they hear in the MSM. 10% nationally is very good at this point when factoring in those states where the campaign hasn't kicked in. Iowa and New Hampshire are the keys to everything that follows.

[JohnGalt23g]

They were unfortunately very accurate in 2008.

EDIT: WTF is up with Gingrich...lol Is the media talking about him non-stop or something?

At this point in the 2008 race, the national polls had Rudy Giuliani and Teh Fled as GOP front-runners. It wasn't until McCain won NH that he really started turning it around.

That said, I like the looks of this. We're in striking distance. What we need to do is win Iowa.

[Brett85]

Is there a good article or commentary on this inexplicable rise of Newt? It really is baffling to me.

It shouldn't be baffling. He's done great in the debates, and he's an amazing speaker.

[bluesc]

It shouldn't be baffling. He's done great in the debates, and he's an amazing speaker.

Then why didn't he surge months ago? It was because the media, and Cain himself, set it up so that Newt would be 2nd choice for Cain supporters. Yes, we know that you don't believe any of that and dismiss it as "conspiracy theories". Nobody moves up to first in national polls this early without the media putting you there.

He is just the final establishment hurdle before it's Ron vs Romney.

[bolidew]

Paul up 1 from last time (8%).

[PaulConventionWV]

Neg Rep for being a dick.. They are irrelevant, McCain wasn't polling well nationally either at this point in 2007.

I believe that was a joke.

[sailingaway]

It shouldn't be baffling. He's done great in the debates, and he's an amazing speaker.

and people aren't looking at his abysmal record

[PaulConventionWV]

why is anyone paying attention to NATIONAL polling? Did the nomination come down to Rudy Guiliani and Fred Thompson?

It's a measure of how well our ideas are resonating on a national level with the GOP. It's definitely relevant.

[kylejack]

What matters now are the early primary states. The voters will come around if the good Doctor does well there.
Yes, on this date in 2007 McCain had an RCP National average of 12.2%.

[bluesc]

It's a measure of how well our ideas are resonating on a national level with the GOP. It's definitely relevant.

Not relevant to Ron winning though.

[AggieforPaul]

In 08 Paul did alot better in Iowa and nh than he did in the later contests. Let's hope it's just because he didn't really have a path to the nomination then, and not that Iowa and nh are just way more libertarian friendly. Iowa is a great start but we need to win a bunch of other states too

[low preference guy]

National polls are relevant after Iowa and New Hampshire.

[TheViper]

Don't forget that this is showing that 18%-19% are undecided. That's more than enough to push Dr. Paul to the front with a nice margin.


The campaign needs to find a way to tap into that undecided collective. He already has his 8-10% on lock. I'm of the opinion that a lot of those undecided are people that want to vote Ron Paul but are just too afraid their vote would get wasted. Motivate them to believe their vote matters and he'll take the lead. Which in turn will grab a few converts who also feel the same way but have already chosen a secondary candidate.

[kylejack]

In 08 Paul did alot better in Iowa and nh than he did in the later contests. Let's hope it's just because he didn't really have a path to the nomination then, and not that Iowa and nh are just way more libertarian friendly. Iowa is a great start but we need to win a bunch of other states too
Paul only got 2 delegates from Iowa, of 21, and none from New Hampshire. Good states were Nevada, Alaska, North Dakota, and North Carolina.

[sailingaway]

In 08 Paul did alot better in Iowa and nh than he did in the later contests. Let's hope it's just because he didn't really have a path to the nomination then, and not that Iowa and nh are just way more libertarian friendly. Iowa is a great start but we need to win a bunch of other states too

after Florida McCain was deemed presumed nominee and in February the media incorrectly reported until March that Ron had pulled out.

[Carole]

Is there a good article or commentary on this inexplicable rise of Newt? It really is baffling to me.

Gingrich baffles them with BS. :D Great spin artist, even spins non-substance. He is a chameleon. :)

[GunnyFreedom]

I can't tell you how often I hear "I like him but he just can't win." Winning Iowa and placing very well in NH will break the meme and national polls will start shooting northward.

This actually puts us in a great position. People respond to movement in the polls more than they respond to placement in the polls. If we were polling high nationally BEFORE an Iowa win it would be 'meh, who cares.' But polling at 9% nationally and then we win Iowa and place well in NH, a great massive chunk of those people who always say "I like him but he just can't win" will start reflecting in Paul's polling numbers, and that movement will draw the attention of the fence sitters and give us our day in the sun.

So we are better off polling low nationally before Iowa, and then winning Iowa, capitalizing on that win with a great ground game in NH, and then ride the wave up to the top as the national polls start climbing in response.

If we had no chance of winning Iowa, we'd want to be really high in the national polling. But if we are going to win Iowa, we are better off being at 9-10% nationally so the movement in polling draws attention.

That's not just glass-is-half-full optimism, it's truth. So let's take advantage of our national polling by winning Iowa. ;)

[GunnyFreedom]

after Florida McCain was deemed presumed nominee and in February the media incorrectly reported until March that Ron had pulled out.

With the new RNC proportional delegates rule, the nominee will not be presumptive that early. Will have to be AFTER Super Tuesday before any nominee is presumptive.

[dude58677]

National Polls are irrelevant because the candidates have to win each state. They are NOT trying to win the most votes overall.

[69360]

With the new RNC proportional delegates rule, the nominee will not be presumptive that early. Will have to be AFTER Super Tuesday before any nominee is presumptive.

Yep it's a whole new ballgame now. All the caucus states between FL and super tuesday are now relevant and we are poised to do well in them.

[Eric21ND]

Don't forget that this is showing that 18%-19% are undecided. That's more than enough to push Dr. Paul to the front with a nice margin.


The campaign needs to find a way to tap into that undecided collective. He already has his 8-10% on lock. I'm of the opinion that a lot of those undecided are people that want to vote Ron Paul but are just too afraid their vote would get wasted. Motivate them to believe their vote matters and he'll take the lead. Which in turn will grab a few converts who also feel the same way but have already chosen a secondary candidate.
Undecideds will stand up and take notice when Ron Paul wins Iowa. Pour all your energy and donations that help facilitate a win there NOW!

[Esoteric]

Someone needs to graph "reliance on television media for news" vs. Ron Paul's polling numbers.

1st place (19%) among 18-29

2nd to Last (3%) among 65+

At least we are the future.

[GunnyFreedom]

Someone needs to graph "reliance on television media for news" vs. Ron Paul's polling numbers.

1st place (19%) among 18-29

2nd to Last (3%) among 25+

At least we are the future.

ding ding ding we have a winnah!

I bet if you could do a 1-5 "how much do you rely on television and radio for your news" and contrast that with RP polling results, the progression will be almost directly linear.