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View Full Version : Intrade Iowa Odds: Rom 35.9%, Paul 26.1%, Gingrich 18.6%,Cain11.5%,Bach6.0%,Perry3.8%,San3



da32130
11-17-2011, 09:08 AM
intrade:
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90932
polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

Let's keep phoning:
http://phone.ronpaul2012.com/v/index.php
trey4sports
11-17-2011, 09:10 AM
I'm surprised this Iowa bump hasn't affected his nomination odds.
iamse7en
11-17-2011, 09:15 AM
I'm beginning to believe that Iowa is possible. More and more polls are forced to confirm that Ron is a force to be reckoned with. I have a more conspiratorial view, so I'm pessimistic about how controlled and manipulated the system is. I'll tell you one thing: Ron has to win by a margin significant enough so they can't steal it.
da32130
11-17-2011, 09:19 AM
I'm surprised this Iowa bump hasn't affected his nomination odds.

It rose earlier from 2.5 to around 5 now (in line with the Iowa rise from 10%). We've also risen to third behind newt and romney.

You're right though that it hasn't risen together (it rose before the Iowa surge).

One offsetting factor is knocking Romney in Iowa helps Huntsman (allows him to compete in NH). It will be interesting to see how that plays out.
Carole
11-17-2011, 09:30 AM
^This
RonRules
11-17-2011, 09:31 AM
"One offsetting factor is knocking Romney in Iowa helps Huntsman (allows him to compete in NH). It will be interesting to see how that plays out."

I was thinking that Ron should team up early with Huntsman. That's the best way I know to oppose Romney. Huntsman is a Mormon and there's 8 million of them that vote in a block. Mormon won't vote for Paul, but will do so if Huntsman is the VP.

Huntsman was pretty compatible with Ron at the last SC debate.

What are Huntsman's negatives?
rp08orbust
11-17-2011, 09:32 AM
What are Huntsman's negatives?

He's been talking up war with Iran lately.
AuH20
11-17-2011, 09:33 AM
"One offsetting factor is knocking Romney in Iowa helps Huntsman (allows him to compete in NH). It will be interesting to see how that plays out."

I was thinking that Ron should team up early with Huntsman. That's the best way I know to oppose Romney. Huntsman is a Mormon and there's 8 million of them that vote in a block. Mormon won't vote for Paul, but will do so if Huntsman is the VP.

Huntsman was pretty compatible with Ron at the last SC debate.

What are Huntsman's negatives?

He served in the Obama Administration.
sailingaway
11-17-2011, 09:34 AM
:)
sailingaway
11-17-2011, 09:36 AM
"One offsetting factor is knocking Romney in Iowa helps Huntsman (allows him to compete in NH). It will be interesting to see how that plays out."

I was thinking that Ron should team up early with Huntsman. That's the best way I know to oppose Romney. Huntsman is a Mormon and there's 8 million of them that vote in a block. Mormon won't vote for Paul, but will do so if Huntsman is the VP.

Huntsman was pretty compatible with Ron at the last SC debate.

What are Huntsman's negatives?

Huntsman is for federal global warming regulations, as well as funded by banks, including Lady Rothschild. In fact, Romney had a fundraising scheduled for her place and then she endorsed Huntsman or something, I forget the exact details. He is definitely a banker boy, though.
chri5opher
11-17-2011, 09:36 AM
//
SilentBull
11-17-2011, 09:38 AM
I'm beginning to believe that Iowa is possible. More and more polls are forced to confirm that Ron is a force to be reckoned with. I have a more conspiratorial view, so I'm pessimistic about how controlled and manipulated the system is. I'll tell you one thing: Ron has to win by a margin significant enough so they can't steal it.

Yeah, whenever I start thinking that they control every single aspect, I remember that Rand got elected. If they were able to control everything, he wouldn't have won. That makes me optimistic.
JohnGalt23g
11-17-2011, 09:46 AM
I'm surprised this Iowa bump hasn't affected his nomination odds.

If he wins Iowa, those numbers will move. How much they move can be read as an indication of his campaign structure in other states.
Original_Intent
11-17-2011, 09:48 AM
"One offsetting factor is knocking Romney in Iowa helps Huntsman (allows him to compete in NH). It will be interesting to see how that plays out."

I was thinking that Ron should team up early with Huntsman. That's the best way I know to oppose Romney. Huntsman is a Mormon and there's 8 million of them that vote in a block. Mormon won't vote for Paul, but will do so if Huntsman is the VP.

Huntsman was pretty compatible with Ron at the last SC debate.

What are Huntsman's negatives?

Mormon's don't vote in a block. There are a LOT of Mormon Ron Paulers in Utah, Nevada, Idaho and California. I am a regular poster on the LDS Freedom Forum, and Paul has a lot more support there than Romney.

Don't get me wrong, Romney will take Utah, but it is really assinine to say Mormon's "vote as a block". Oh, and if Paul took Huntsman as his BP pick, I think it would turn off more Mormon Ron Paul supporters than it would gain new supporters.
PaulConventionWV
11-17-2011, 09:56 AM
"One offsetting factor is knocking Romney in Iowa helps Huntsman (allows him to compete in NH). It will be interesting to see how that plays out."

I was thinking that Ron should team up early with Huntsman. That's the best way I know to oppose Romney. Huntsman is a Mormon and there's 8 million of them that vote in a block. Mormon won't vote for Paul, but will do so if Huntsman is the VP.

Huntsman was pretty compatible with Ron at the last SC debate.

What are Huntsman's negatives?

Some mormons will and should vote for Paul.
sailingaway
11-17-2011, 10:05 AM
If he wins Iowa, those numbers will move. How much they move can be read as an indication of his campaign structure in other states.

Information in the market is the biggest factor. How much it moves will be indicative of how much the market can see through media roadblocks, or thinks Ron can win despite them.
brendan.orourke
11-17-2011, 10:06 AM
I'm beginning to believe that Iowa is possible. More and more polls are forced to confirm that Ron is a force to be reckoned with. I have a more conspiratorial view, so I'm pessimistic about how controlled and manipulated the system is. I'll tell you one thing: Ron has to win by a margin significant enough so they can't steal it.With the numbers we're seeing, and if we keep pushing, Iowa is probable!