Iowa Poll- Iowa State University/KCRG/Gazette poll- Cain 24.5%, Paul 20.4%, Gingrich 4.8%

[pulp8721]

some of the key findings of the poll:


• “Can’t Decide” (21.5 percent) was the most frequent second choice. Cain, Perry, Romney and Paul all had more than 10 percent support as respondents’ second choice.
• Most of the candidates have a small gender gap among supporters. Cain does much better among women than men as do Perry and Gingrich. Paul and Bachmann do better with men than with women.
• Cain has strong support across all income levels, particularly among those earning $100,000 a year or more. Among the least well off, Paul leads at around 41 percent. The wealthiest voters have the highest level of “undecideds.”
• There are sizable differences in the level of candidate support based on religious beliefs. Cain leads among three categories — Catholics, born-again Protestants and mainstream Protestants. Among those with no religious preference, Paul captured nearly 59 percent.
• Romney wins support across all educational levels. It rises with education level. Cain and Paul’s support is highest among those with either some college or a college degree.


Read more: http://globegazette.com/news/iowa/poll-gop-race-up-for-grabs-in-iowa/article_8ac2334c-10cc-11e1-bb14-001cc4c03286.html#ixzz1dwRs6vCV


Actual Poll: http://www.news.iastate.edu/news/2011/nov/ISUpoll

[Karsten]

Cain will fall in sexually conservative Iowa. 20%? The bloomberg poll was not a fluke! We are top tier! YEAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

[bluesc]

Holy shit, the surge is real! Wtf is up with Newt being so low though?

[PauliticsPolitics]

So it looks like we don't have to focus on poor, college-educated, agnostic males.
Surprise!

[rp08orbust]

But I was told just yesterday by pundits that Ron's ceiling is 19%. I guess now it's 20.4%.

[IterTemporis]

This is amazing..

[low preference guy]

But I was told just yesterday by pundits that Ron's ceiling is 19%. I guess now it's 20.4%.

of course. Ron's ceiling behaves like that cause he is in an elevator!

[kah13176]

This better be included in Iowa's RCP average. It's worth noting that we do well in polls that include independents. We do poorly in most national polls because the only include registered Republicans.

[Hospitaller]

Stolen from i cant remember

What do you call a ceiling that keeps rising?
An elevator

[tsai3904]

The poll was compiled through phone interviews conducted between Nov. 1 and 13, and surveyed 979 registered Republicans and 277 registered independents. Of those polled, 377 (30.0 percent) stated that they definitely or probably would attend the Republican caucus on Tuesday, Jan. 3.

I wonder what the numbers are for the 377 likely caucus goers.

[LibXist]

Is this poll legit?

[GunnyFreedom]

But I was told just yesterday by pundits that Ron's ceiling is 19%. I guess now it's 20.4%.

Can't be true, they just said he had a 20% ceiling.... ;)

[IterTemporis]

Looks like we have already raised our ceiling (:.

This should put Ron into 3rd on RCP. It will make Newt drop.

[Karsten]

This is incredible considering the blackout. It's ALL due to us. It's all organic. Hard work, sweat, and tears from the grassroots!

[Esoteric]

"Among those who report no religious preference, Paul is winning a majority at nearly 59 percent."

WIN.

[LibXist]

Not that I'm complaining but how is Newt almost tied for first in one poll, but only 5% in another. Is this a serious poll?

[anaconda]

Herman Cain Art Project still on top.

[TomtheTinker]

But is it legit?

[bluesc]

Vote this up on r/Libertarian for those damn skeptical libertarians. Top of the list http://www.reddit.com/r/Libertarian/new/

[Karsten]

Could you have imagined in 2004 convincing more than 20% of Republicans in ANY state to support a non-interventionist candidate? This is a revolution!

[Lord Xar]

Cain will fall in sexually conservative Iowa. 20%? The bloomberg poll was not a fluke! We are top tier! YEAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

If so, why not before now?

[Karsten]

But is it legit?
Of course it's legit. Iowa State University has done other polls that are considered legit.

[IterTemporis]

News of the sexual harassment claims was breaking as the poll was being conducted.


Cain does much better among women than men as do Perry and Gingrich.

..?

[Karsten]

If so, why not before now?
It takes time for polls to reflect reality both up and down. Paul is not done going up and Cain is not done going down.

[bluesc]

Vote this up on r/Libertarian for those damn skeptical libertarians. Top of the list http://www.reddit.com/r/Libertarian/new/

Don't ignore that ^^ A lot of donations rely on their enthusiasm.

[tsai3904]

Not that I'm complaining but how is Newt almost tied for first in one poll, but only 5% in another. Is this a serious poll?

The poll was conducted over two weeks (Nov 1-13). Gingrich's surge was fairly recent.

[bluesc]

The poll was conducted over two weeks (Nov 1-13). Gingrich's surge was fairly recent.

So this confirms what Ron was saying about their internals showing this for a while.

[NeoconTea]

Not that I'm complaining but how is Newt almost tied for first in one poll, but only 5% in another. Is this a serious poll?
The poll started on November 1st. A lot of the discrepancy can be Cain people switching over to Newt because some of it was before the real "Newt surge".

I think the weird thing is that Paul is 20% in one, 19% in another, and 11% in one, and 10% in another. For some reason I'm more likely to trust Iowa State and Selzer & Co. than Insider Advantage and The Polling Company.

[rp08orbust]

Don't polls usually come out mid-morning? What's with all these pro-Paul polls coming out in the middle of the night?

[parocks]

this is a pretty amazing poll.

[Karsten]

Not that I'm complaining but how is Newt almost tied for first in one poll, but only 5% in another. Is this a serious poll?
If this poll was conducted while the Cain charges were BREAKING, than it was before some of the Cain people switched to Newt.
It doesn't reflect the reality that Newt's a bit higher and Cain's a bit lower than these numbers might suggest.
But there's no reason to believe our numbers are not correct! We're more enthusiastic and we'll do well better in January than even these polls suggest!

[low preference guy]

Don't polls usually come out mid-morning? What's with all these pro-Paul polls coming out in the middle of the night?

I think they're published but everybody is sleeping at that time. Except our RP people like the OP who catch it immediately.

[pauladin]

lol did anybody else notice that huntsman got zero?

[Fermli]

The poll was conducted over two weeks (Nov 1-13). Gingrich's surge was fairly recent.

there's another Iowa poll conducted on Nov 3rd that has Gingrich at 12%. Even late October he was polling at around 9%.

[Eric21ND]

This was a poll of 1200 people? That's a huge sample size for one state like Iowa.

[parocks]

The poll started on November 1st. A lot of the discrepancy can be Cain people switching over to Newt because some of it was before the real "Newt surge".

I think the weird thing is that Paul is 20% in one, 19% in another, and 11% in one, and 10% in another. For some reason I'm more likely to trust Iowa State and Selzer & Co. than Insider Advantage and The Polling Company.

I looked at the numbers I could from Bloomberg and Insider Advantage. Part of the difference between Insider Advantage and Bloomberg was that Insider didn't talk to as many kids. I reconfigured the numbers to look at what the numbers would be if Insider Advantage talked to as many kids as Bloomberg. And Insider Advantage would be 14.1 percent.

[pauliticalfan]

Holy moly, 20.4%. Confirms the Bloomberg poll. Full steam ahead, hit the phones, donate, donate, donate. We have to keep it up!

[Badger Paul]

We must, must increase our support among Catholics to win this thing.

[parocks]

So it looks like we don't have to focus on poor, college-educated, agnostic males.
Surprise!

Who is "we". If "we" is GOTV, yes, that's exactly who we target.

[bluesc]

Holy moly, 20.4%. Confirms the Bloomberg poll. Full steam ahead, hit the phones, donate, donate, donate. We have to keep it up!

This confirms the need for an Iowa themed ticker on the campaign's site. We need to ride this momentum with fundraising to get ads back on the air. Critical time.

[parocks]

Don't polls usually come out mid-morning? What's with all these pro-Paul polls coming out in the middle of the night?

Are you planning on doing robopolling in some way for Iowa, like you did for Ames?

[Karsten]

there's another Iowa poll conducted on Nov 3rd that has Gingrich at 12%. Even late October he was polling at around 9%.
When someone's poll numbers are changing rapidly in a short amount of time, you'll have mixed results from poll to poll.

[pauliticalfan]

This confirms the need for an Iowa themed ticker on the campaign's site. We need to ride this momentum with fundraising to get ads back on the air. Critical time.

I agree completely. We need to funnel this momentum and enthusiasm into fundraising. Now is the time for action.

[Karsten]

This confirms the need for an Iowa themed ticker on the campaign's site. We need to ride this momentum with fundraising to get ads back on the air. Critical time.

They're not on the air now?
I thought Ron Paul was spending more on TV ads there than any candidate.

[bluesc]

They're not on the air now?
I thought Ron Paul was spending more on TV ads there than any candidate.

Perry took that trophy now. Ads are off the air because we aren't reaching the fundraising target. People need to concentrate on getting the campaign to put an Iowa ticker up.

[Karsten]

If ads aren't on the air how are we surging?

[bluesc]

If ads aren't on the air how are we surging?

Apparently we have been surging for a while now.

[Karsten]

Well forget money bombs and lets just have a good old fashioned fundraising drive for the rest of November!

[bluesc]

Well forget money bombs and lets just have a good old fashioned fundraising drive for the rest of November!

Ticker would go a long way in helping. I don't want a moneybomb, but a fundraising drive WITH a ticker till the end of November.

Request one here: http://www.ronpaul2012.com/contact-us/

[parocks]

This confirms the need for an Iowa themed ticker on the campaign's site. We need to ride this momentum with fundraising to get ads back on the air. Critical time.

I would argue that we aren't watching any particular surge. It's simply a gradual rise, and we're moving up in the polls as expected. When the media starts talking us up, and we get to 20% or more in the national polls, that's what a surge looks like. That what our bump looks like.

What could be happening is that they know that Newt, if they like Newt, will be torn to shreds before Iowa. Unless they pull him back now. Even so, he's up, fire away at Newt. Perry is "dead" Bachmann and Cain "dead". And we beat Newt head to head. But it's Newt who has the surge right now in November. Perhaps Paul will get a surge in December, when Newt is a bloody mess. And people say "Isn't Ron Paul also supposed to be a "smart" one". But what we're looking at is simply the natural result of our hard work, not any surge. I'm not saying I'm not pleased this work is helping. But a surge is bigger, this is just us working hard and not collapsing, and moving forward. We've been running ads in Iowa, right?

[bluesc]

I would argue that we aren't watching any particular surge. It's simply a gradual rise, and we're moving up in the polls as expected. When the media starts talking us up, and we get to 20% or more in the national polls, that's what a surge looks like. That what our bump looks like.

We've been running ads in Iowa, right?

The media is calling it a surge, the grassroots are energized by a "surge". It helps with enthusiasm. Yes, we've been airing ads, but not anymore. A report came out showing Perry spending a ton, but Ron not buying any ad time. They need money.

[Karsten]

"Surge" = interest and attention.
Stop worrying and love the term.

[Lord Xar]

The media is calling it a surge, the grassroots are energized by a "surge". It helps with enthusiasm. Yes, we've been airing ads, but not anymore. A report came out showing Perry spending a ton, but Ron not buying any ad time. They need money.

You are saying there are literally NO Ron Paul ads, or just not nearly as many as there were?

[PauliticsPolitics]

So it looks like we don't have to focus on poor, college-educated, agnostic males.
Surprise!


Who is "we". If "we" is GOTV, yes, that's exactly who we target.

I was joking... as that "demographic" is the stereotypical RP supporter:The unemployed tech-geeks spamming in the basement, etc.
Obviously, we keep pushing the message everywhere. I try to ignore such collectivist rhetoric, the liberty message is universal. The only collective categories I currently care about are the state-delineated demographics known as Iowa and New Hampshire. Regardless, I thought it was funny that this poll's trivia matched the Paulbot stereotype.

[z9000]

deleted

[bluesc]

You are saying there are literally NO Ron Paul ads, or just not nearly as many as there were?

The the areas that they watch (Des Moines, etc) there are NONE.


Republican presidential candidate and Texas Gov. Rick Perry and his Super PAC are continuing a media blitz at Des Moines’ top network TV stations, while other candidates and issue groups have gone off the airwaves....

The combined total for Perry’s campaign and Make Us Great Again puts pro-Perry spending past that of U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas). Paul had been leading all candidates in spending on KCCI and WHO, but has no ads scheduled to run this week.

Seriously guys, we need an Iowa ticker.

[Inkblots]

We must, must increase our support among Catholics to win this thing.

That should be easy; even though Ron isn't a Catholic, his positions are more in accord with Catholic teaching than any other candidate. He opposes torture in agreement with Catholic teaching that torture is an intrinsic evil. He opposed the aggressive war in Iraq which was an unjust war under Catholic Just War theory and was opposed by both the current Pope and his predecessor. He wants to leave all the 'culture war' issues to the states, in clear conformity with the principle of subsidiarity - that matters ought to be handled by the smallest, lowest or least centralized competent authority - which is a cornerstone of Catholic social teaching. He's across the board pro-life, opposing abortion, the death penalty, and aggressive war, in accordance with the teachings of Pope John Paul II in his encyclical, The Gospel of Life.

Seriously, getting Catholics like myself to back Paul should be easy if they take the Church's teachings at all seriously.

[MaxPower]

But I was told just yesterday by pundits that Ron's ceiling is 19%. I guess now it's 20.4%. The political class seems to have a much different understanding of the term "ceiling" from the rest of us; see the "debt ceiling" for another example.

[1836]

Is anyone else feeling lightheaded, dumbfounded at how this is all real?

I am amazed and truly in awe. I am just thinking of all those hours I have put in and many thousands of others and how it sometimes felt like we would never be in this position, it is just astounding.

My goodness, think about how Ron Paul must feel! A man who has tirelessly plodded forward for years in the cause of liberty. Now, his time has come.

Can you imagine?!

[realtonygoodwin]

InTrade has Ron at 20% to win Iowa...

[TheTexan]

Amount: $20.40
Transaction ID: 320525265
Transaction date/time: 2011-11-17 02:04:57

[turbobrain9]

I am cautiously optimistic about Ron "rise" in the polls in Iowa. Although, the tie for first in the Ames Straw Poll was a pretty significant early benchmark for Ron. Hopefully we can nudge the polls up to 25% prior to Christmas, going into the final week before the voting starts. I think the key for the campaign is to concentrate on the individual counties that are close. Ron needs to win the counties to get delegates. So even if Ron gets 25% overall, he still needs to win those counties...time to do some micro polling by the campaign find those counties and sure them up!

[bluesc]

InTrade has Ron at 20% to win Iowa...

Not bad.

[RP Supporter]

I was a little skeptical about seeing Gingrich so low. Some places I check are already dismissing it as an outlier because of that.:rolleyes: But if the poll was taken over two weeks, it makes sense. And it also means that if the poll had just been taken in the last week, we'd see Cain a bit lower and Gingrich a bit higher. Which means Paul might very well be in first place now.:D

There's no doubt the campaign is entering uncharted waters here. We're going to be slammed hard if this continues. But Paul won't be another flavor of the month. He's going to win this thing.

[bluesc]

I was a little skeptical about seeing Gingrich so low. Some places I check are already dismissing it as an outlier because of that.:rolleyes: But if the poll was taken over two weeks, it makes sense. And it also means that if the poll had just been taken in the last week, we'd see Cain a bit lower and Gingrich a bit higher. Which means Paul might very well be in first place now.:D

There's no doubt the campaign is entering uncharted waters here. We're going to be slammed hard if this continues. But Paul won't be another flavor of the month. He's going to win this thing.

Indeed! This is no outlier. Consider donating or helping with the phone from home program if you haven't already, both are critical :)!

[LawnWake]

"Among those who report no religious preference, Paul is winning a majority at nearly 59 percent."

WIN.

We had those in the bag anyway. We need christians way more than non-religious people.

[eduardo89]

But I was told just yesterday by pundits that Ron's ceiling is 19%. I guess now it's 20.4%.

MSM: margin of error! It must be an error in the poll!

[ventron]

MSM: margin of error! It must be an error in the poll!

Now it's the media saying the polls are rigged! Twilight Zone anyone? :P

[bluesc]

The last University of Iowa poll was up on RCP, hopefully they put this one up too. I want to see that average shoot up :)

[randomname]

top tier, bitchez

[Sunstruck-Eden]

"Cain and Paul’s support is highest among those with either some college or a college degree."

I'm sorry...how can you support this man if you have a college degree? Oh wait, because of the Department of Education college degrees are the new high school diplomas. Nevermind...

But still ridiculous.

[bluesc]

"Cain and Paul’s support is highest among those with either some college or a college degree."

I'm sorry...how can you support this man if you have a college degree? Oh wait, because of the Department of Eduion college degrees are the new high school diplomas. Nevermind...

But still ridiculous.

Look at the positives! Ron is a frontrunner, and is about to come under a shit storm of attack ads.

#Top tier

[eaglesfan48]

We are surging. Confirmed.

Its all about the early primary states right now & we are really surging in them. Keep up the hard work everyone. =)

[Sunstruck-Eden]

Look at the positives! Ron is a frontrunner, and is about to come under a shit storm of attack ads.

#Top tier

Oh no dude, I am definitely pumped! I've been waiting to shove Ron Paul's eventual surge in my socialist college advisor's face (I can because we're friends :p ). I just thought that was perplexing.

[XTreat]

I jut emailed the campaign asking for a ticker for the last 10 days of november

[JohnGalt1225]

It takes time for polls to reflect reality both up and down. Paul is not done going up and Cain is not done going down.
Right. This poll started on Nov. 1st, when Cain was still doing pretty well, and ended Nov 13. Cain's really just started full meltdown mode so I suspect polls going forward to show him going down, Newt getting some of that fleeing support, and us doing what we always do: slowly, but steadily climb upward.

[parocks]

The media is calling it a surge, the grassroots are energized by a "surge". It helps with enthusiasm. Yes, we've been airing ads, but not anymore. A report came out showing Perry spending a ton, but Ron not buying any ad time. They need money.

I'm not saying they shouldn't get money.

This is not a surge. We don't get surges. Therefore, this is something else. A natural result. Surges are artificially created and a result of media positivity. We haven't gotten the media positivity. We're getting the results of our hard work. If we win Iowa, the media, naturally, will treat it like the hugest story ever, because we would have won without the hype. And at that time, we get huge huge wall to wall coverage for at least a week. That week of huge coverage will include New Hampshire. That huge coverage could bring us the win in New Hampshire.

[bluesc]

I'm not saying they shouldn't get money.

This is not a surge. We don't get surges. Therefore, this is something else. A natural result. Surges are artificially created and a result of media positivity. We haven't gotten the media positivity. We're getting the results of our hard work. If we win Iowa, the media, naturally, will treat it like the hugest story ever, because we would have won without the hype. And at that time, we get huge huge wall to wall coverage for at least a week. That week of huge coverage will include New Hampshire. That huge coverage could bring us the win in New Hampshire.

It's a surge. That is what we are calling it. That is what the media is calling it. That is what the campaign is calling it. It builds enthusiasm, and there is no need to shit on it. I see a surge as a rapid rise in polls, and that is exactly what I saw happen.

[Karsten]

Well maybe it's good they moved Iowa up. This will be a win, and we need it as soon as possible.

[parocks]

Look at the positives! Ron is a frontrunner, and is about to come under a shit storm of attack ads.

#Top tier

No, actually, to attack Ron Paul at this point would still be shooting down. Because we're in 5th in the national polls.

We have not gotten the media attention which creates a surge, an inexplicable, and temporary spike in the polls. Going from 8 to 38 % in 2 weeks nationally, that's a surge. Those surges are all media created. All the candidates that have had those surges have fallen back.

We have yet to have a surge. We're simply steadily gaining support in Iowa and New Hampshire. Nothing to really get truly excited about. Keep working hard.

Now, if we win Iowa, without the media hype that Cain, Bachmann, Perry, Cain and Newt have gotten, with a constant level of hype for Romney, well that is absolutely,
certainly a massive massive story. And at that time, Jan 3,4 and lasting at least a week, we should be getting HUGE PRESS all over TV all over everywhere, and the surge we get from that huge press will lead to great results in New Hampshire. And then it gets interesting. At least that's a reasonable way it could go.

Right now, Newt is having a surge, Newt takes the hits, and Newt falls off by Jan 3. There's no one above 20%, and we use our powerful ground game to get the win in Iowa.

[bluesc]

No, actually, to attack Ron Paul at this point would still be shooting down. Because we're in 5th in the national polls.

We have not gotten the media attention which creates a surge, an inexplicable, and temporary spike in the polls. Going from 8 to 38 % in 2 weeks nationally, that's a surge. Those surges are all media created. All the candidates that have had those surges have fallen back.

We have yet to have a surge. We're simply steadily gaining support in Iowa and New Hampshire. Nothing to really get truly excited about. Keep working hard.

Now, if we win Iowa, without the media hype that Cain, Bachmann, Perry, Cain and Newt have gotten, with a constant level of hype for Romney, well that is absolutely,
certainly a massive massive story. And at that time, Jan 3,4 and lasting at least a week, we should be getting HUGE PRESS all over TV all over everywhere, and the surge we get from that huge press will lead to great results in New Hampshire. And then it gets interesting. At least that's a reasonable way it could go.

Right now, Newt is having a surge, Newt takes the hits, and Newt falls off by Jan 3. There's no one above 20%, and we use our powerful ground game to get the win in Iowa.

Stop trying to shit on enthusiasm. National polls mean absolutely nothing. Giuliani and Thompson were leading the national polls this time in '07, and Ron ended up winning more delegates than both of them put together.

[michaelkellenger]

Stop trying to shit on enthusiasm. National polls mean absolutely nothing. Giuliani and Thompson were leading the national polls this time in '07, and Ron ended up winning more delegates than both of them put together.

+ rep. You hit the nail on the head. Of course we want to do better in the national polls, but national polls mean nothing in presidential elections both primary and general.....we need to win states. We need to win Iowa and at least have a strong second in New Hampshire...if we do that...we will get the ball rolling. That's whats important.

[Karsten]

+ rep. You hit the nail on the head. Of course we want to do better in the national polls, but national polls mean nothing in presidential elections both primary and general.....we need to win states. We need to win Iowa and at least have a strong second in New Hampshire...if we do that...we will get the ball rolling. That's whats important.
We need to be like, and I don't mean philosophically, Kerry in 2004. He was nowhere in the national polls until his surprise win in Iowa and that made him win pretty much everything else [for nomination purposes].

[michaelkellenger]

some of the key findings of the poll:




Actual Poll: http://www.news.iastate.edu/news/2011/nov/ISUpoll

Hey guys, there is also an online poll at the bottom of the globalegaette link :)

[michaelkellenger]

We need to be like, and I don't mean philosophically, Kerry in 2004. He was nowhere in the national polls until his surprise win in Iowa and that made him win pretty much everything else [for nomination purposes].

Exactly. Iowa doesn't necessarily mean we will win it all, but it will make a huge difference...it always helps immensely in later states. We need it.

[Karsten]

And one good thing about the nomination in a re-election year: no competing other party. In 2008, Huckabee won Iowa but he couldn't compete with Obama's Iowa win in the media coverage.
This time, Ron Paul will not have that particular problem. :)

[michaelkellenger]

Wow that's a great point. Didn't even think of that, so true. Huckabee got attention, but nothing nearly he would have. If we win Iowa....they can't ignore it, and at the very least there is no competing party as you say. That is huge. Just like in 2004, Kerry had no competing party coverage.

Interesting crosstabs on the poll, RP leads among men, non-tea party members, least income individuals, college graduates and those with no religious preference.

[parocks]

Stop trying to shit on enthusiasm. National polls mean absolutely nothing. Giuliani and Thompson were leading the national polls this time in '07, and Ron ended up winning more delegates than both of them put together.

I'm not shitting on enthusiasm and I'm not saying that National polls mean anything.

I'm saying that this year at least, being the "front-runner" is not where you want to be.

Bachmann was frontrunner

Cain was frontrunner

Perry was frontrunner.

They were hyped by the media, their numbers went up, and then went down again.

When you're the frontrunner, they can shoot at you. Newt is the new frontrunner now, and we can shoot at him, and his numbers will fall.

When you're in fifth, they can't shoot at your, because that's shooting down, and that's bad.

We are just where we want to be in Iowa and NH. Our numbers are great there. We should be happy about those numbers.

But if it doesn't make us the frontrunner, it means that we don't get hit. And we don't want to get hit. Really, we don't.

It really would be better for us if we hit Newt.

Also, consider, we have good, positive forward momentum. I believe, though, that surges, in 2011 at least, are accompanied by media hype. If no media hype, no surge. Something similar like good positive forward momentum.

We get a win in Iowa, it's despite the media ignoring us. And right then, that's when we get our real surge, which is helped by the media.

That takes us to a great result in New Hampshire. And then it gets interesting.

[Karsten]

Interesting crosstabs on the poll, RP leads among men, non-tea party members, least income individuals, college graduates and those with no religious preference.

We're all individuals. I'm sure there are many Ron Paul supporters that fall under entirely different descriptions. The last thing we should do is go after "groups".

[Karsten]

Lol for the people who sleep at night and have no idea yet of this poll :p

[Karsten]

Goodnight everybody looks like we'll soon be living in a country with peace, freedom, and prosperity!

[ross11988]

Lol just woke up saw this and first words were "holy shit"

[parocks]

I was a little skeptical about seeing Gingrich so low. Some places I check are already dismissing it as an outlier because of that.:rolleyes: But if the poll was taken over two weeks, it makes sense. And it also means that if the poll had just been taken in the last week, we'd see Cain a bit lower and Gingrich a bit higher. Which means Paul might very well be in first place now.:D

There's no doubt the campaign is entering uncharted waters here. We're going to be slammed hard if this continues. But Paul won't be another flavor of the month. He's going to win this thing.

Why does everyone seem to be rooting for Ron Paul to be slammed hard? I would think that not being slammed hard is the better place to be.

The media knows that it can't brush off an Iowa win by Ron Paul. And Jan 4 is when we want the wall coverage that we deserve and the American public expects to start. That should carry us to very close a victory in NH.

[Karsten]

Why does everyone seem to be rooting for Ron Paul to be slammed hard? I would think that not being slammed hard is the better place to be.

I think people think if he's "slammed" that means the media recognizes him. But that's stupid. Actually, this being under the radar and kind of sneak attack in for the win in Iowa is awesome.

[parocks]

We're all individuals. I'm sure there are many Ron Paul supporters that fall under entirely different descriptions. The last thing we should do is go after "groups".

What if we can recognize that a certain type of person likes Ron Paul? A 18-29 year old male? And if we make sure that we get all the 18-29 year old men to vote, Ron Paul would win.

If by going after groups, certain demographics, we win, I'm 100% for that. And we do crush it so hard with 18-29 men, that I think that sooner rather than later we turn this away from Austrian Econ lectures to schoolhouse rock. Hey kids, you see, it's like March Madness. Obama is in the other bracket. He won. He's in the finals.
If you want to vote for him, you can in November. But Ron Paul is in this bracket, and you can pick between Ron Paul and those other people. You'll want to vote for Ron Paul, because most politicians really suck and Ron Paul doesn't.

[parocks]

I think people think if he's "slammed" that means the media recognizes him. But that's stupid. Actually, this being under the radar and kind of sneak attack in for the win in Iowa is awesome.

Things are going along smoothly. I'd want to see the age crosstabs on this one and the Bloomberg. We, the grassroots, should be considering going to Iowa (those who aren't already doing Christmas with Ron Paul).

We really should have a grassroots project for this. a grassroots gotv project separate from the official campaign, one that gets at the voters in a different way than the standard list/phone/address model.

[sorianofan]

Cain does much better among women than men as do Perry and Gingrich.
Man, women are really that stupid that they prefer proven cheats over a loyal man...wait a second, I already knew wome preferred jerks since middle school.

[ronpaulfollower999]

After the last 2 mornings, I actually looked forward to waking up this morning to see a new poll that has Ron doing good. :p

[KingNothing]

If ads aren't on the air how are we surging?

because they were on the air. We've got to get them back up.

[KingNothing]

Indeed! This is no outlier. Consider donating or helping with the phone from home program if you haven't already, both are critical :)!

Amount: $201.20
Transaction ID: *****4035
Transaction date/time: 2011-11-17 05:50:47

The recent polling is ridiculously motivating.

[Paulatized]

I love waking up to news like this! Ron Paul, returning the power to the people! We all need to be preparing our local areas to be receptive to the coming great showing in Iowa and New Hampshire so as to take advantage of the news..

[ropa2012]

News of the sexual harassment claims was breaking as the poll was being conducted.

This poll is conducted today and I'll bet we have a 2-3% lead.

[KingNothing]

Remember the "Who is Ron Paul" and "Google Ron Paul" stuff? Doesn't that feel like a lifetime ago?

We've come unbelievably far, on the force of supporters alone. No media help. No establishment help. This is absolutely amazing. If we keep pushing, if we keep donating, if we keep phone banking, if we keep showing up at straw polls, if we keep spreading the message, this thing is ours. We're going to win Iowa and it's going to springboard us to more successes in the early states. All we have to do is to continue what we have been doing, and we got this!

[bolidew]

Herman Cain Art Project still on top.

Sadly true. It's Cain vs. Paul in Iowa.

[Ireland4Liberty]

Remember the "Who is Ron Paul" and "Google Ron Paul" stuff? Doesn't that feel like a lifetime ago?

We've come unbelievably far, on the force of supporters alone. No media help. No establishment help. This is absolutely amazing. If we keep pushing, if we keep donating, if we keep phone banking, if we keep showing up at straw polls, if we keep spreading the message, this thing is ours. We're going to win Iowa and it's going to springboard us to more successes in the early states. All we have to do is to continue what we have been doing, and we got this!

I'm not religious but Amen brother.

[michaelkellenger]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

Poll was added to RCP's average, Des Moines Register polled taken off....new averages:

Cain 22.0
Romney 16.8
Paul 15
Gingrich 14
Perry 7.3
Bachmann 7
Santorum 3.8
Huntsman 1

[speciallyblend]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

Poll was added to RCP's average, Des Moines Register polled taken off....new averages:

Cain 22.0
Romney 16.8
Paul 15
Gingrich 14
Perry 7.3
Bachmann 7
Santorum 3.8
Huntsman 1

meme 2 way race now Ron Paul vs Status Quo

[eaglesfan48]

The Intrade odds of winning the Iowa Caucus right now are:

Romney: 35.9%
Ron Paul: 26.1%
Gingrich: 21.4%
Cain: 11.5%
Bachmann: 6%

[jkob]

I was actually worried that when the next poll in Iowa came out would have us back around our usual 10-12% and people would feel discouraged but wow, quite the opposite. Gotta stop myself from getting too excited! We can win this thing!

[69360]

I keep waking up to all this good news every day. This is amazing!

How far is this from the "electability sir do you have any days"

[PastaRocket848]

great to see that the first one wasn't a fluke! hopefully more states will start to fall into line with iowa and nh. we really need sc to come around as well as nevada. if we can be polling like this in all four of those we'll be in good shape going into january.

[Corey]

Thank you!
Thank you for your generous donation!


Amount: $25.00
Transaction ID: 320556773
Transaction date/time: 2011-11-17 07:07:01

[Bobster]

Win, Ron, Win!

Amount: $20.12
Transaction ID: 320557430
Transaction date/time: 2011-11-17 07:15:53

[rodo1776]

Thanks for posting this. Great news. My takeaway on it is this caveat:

The poll was compiled through phone interviews conducted between Nov. 1 and 13, and surveyed 979 registered Republicans and 277 registered independents. Of those polled, 377 (30.0 percent) stated that they definitely or probably would attend the Republican caucus on Tuesday, Jan. 3.

Other polls show results based on people likely to attend the caucus. This poll only shows 30% likely. We need to keep up the voter ID phoning so we know who our votes are to then be able to call them to get out and attend the caucus. If you have not thought about doing a bit of phoning please consider doing this. Get our people to the caucuses or it wont matter how high we poll going into it.

This can be done!!!

[trey4sports]

there are no ads for Ron playing right now. The multimillion dollar ad buy was for october, and is probably the reason we went from 12 to 19% during that span. We need to get more money to the campaign though if we want more ads.

[trey4sports]

I'm not saying they shouldn't get money.

This is not a surge. We don't get surges. Therefore, this is something else. A natural result. Surges are artificially created and a result of media positivity. We haven't gotten the media positivity. We're getting the results of our hard work. If we win Iowa, the media, naturally, will treat it like the hugest story ever, because we would have won without the hype. And at that time, we get huge huge wall to wall coverage for at least a week. That week of huge coverage will include New Hampshire. That huge coverage could bring us the win in New Hampshire.



or they talk about how Romney and Cain finished an impressive 2nd and 3rd and that it is now a two man race.

[parocks]

I was actually worried that when the next poll in Iowa came out would have us back around our usual 10-12% and people would feel discouraged but wow, quite the opposite. Gotta stop myself from getting too excited! We can win this thing!

when you can, you always want to look at the crosstabs, especially the age. and question the ppp results until they start looking normal again.

[parocks]

or they talk about how Romney and Cain finished an impressive 2nd and 3rd and that it is now a two man race.

right, and all the blackthisout stuff has just been practice for that, then.

[tremendoustie]

Can't be true, they just said he had a 20% ceiling.... ;)

I believe this simple diagram will help explain the phenomena you've been observing:

http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/5751/elevatoros.jpg

[Son of Detroit]

http://i55.tinypic.com/209kizm.jpg

http://oi51.tinypic.com/2a80ny1.jpg

[Bruno]

there are no ads for Ron playing right now. The multimillion dollar ad buy was for october, and is probably the reason we went from 12 to 19% during that span. We need to get more money to the campaign though if we want more ads.

I haven't watched much TV lately, but the radio ad is great and running often.

[anewvoice]

Just noting, regarding hte ad buys, the October ad purchases were funded by Q3 money, it's why the spend was so high in Q3. Give as much as you can, I trust that a Ron Paul campaign is spending responsibly. :)

[No Free Beer]

a lot of undecided

[LibertyEsq]

Where exactly are people getting the "there are no ads running now" from

[trey4sports]

Where exactly are people getting the "there are no ads running now" from

The article which stated that Rick Perry had a new ad buy also stated that Ron's ads are off the air now. Secondly, the campaign said several times that the plan was a media blitz in October (not November) because ad rates would be much cheaper, early on.

[TheTruth]

After seeing the last debate I thought there was no way this could happen. I'm in awe now and excited!! The media can't ignore this!

[AggieforPaul]

This confirms what I thought, that Paul does best with young men who are educated, not wealthy, and not especially religious. Now we just have to figure out how to get enough of all the other demographics.

[MomsBasement]

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/11/17/new-poll-iowa-republicans-favor-herman-cain-and-ron-paul/

Cain- 24.5
Paul- 20.4
Romney- 16.3
Everyone else- single digits!

Newt at 4.8 is especially surprising. Great to see confirmation of four surge, and breaking 20% for the first time in any poll ever!!!!!

Other noteworthy items: over 1200 were polled, a pretty large sample size compared to all the Iowa polls on RCP. Also, only 30% of those polled said they definitely or probably would go to the caucus (gotta imagine a disproportionate amount of those fall into the 20% for paul!)

[ronpaulfollower999]

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/11/17/new-poll-iowa-republicans-favor-herman-cain-and-ron-paul/

Cain- 24.5
Paul- 20.4
Romney- 16.3
Everyone else- single digits!

Newt at 4.8 is especially surprising. Great to see confirmation of four surge, and breaking 20% for the first time in any poll ever!!!!!

Good morning! Welcome to today…

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?330791-Iowa-Poll-Iowa-State-University-KCRG-Gazette-poll-Cain-24.5-Paul-20.4-Gingrich-4.8

[seapilot]

Keeps getting better and better! More than likely Cains support is soft too, the desperate are holding onto him.

[MomsBasement]

Good morning! Welcome to today…

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?330791-Iowa-Poll-Iowa-State-University-KCRG-Gazette-poll-Cain-24.5-Paul-20.4-Gingrich-4.8

Dammit, I scanned the front page and didn't see that! lol, my bad

[ronpaulfollower999]

Dammit, I scanned the front page and didn't see that! lol, my bad

Haha…:)

[sailingaway]

Not that I'm complaining but how is Newt almost tied for first in one poll, but only 5% in another. Is this a serious poll?

he has so much baggage and such a rotten record it is amazing he went up at all. But he pontificates so well when no one looks at his record....

[sailingaway]

Herman Cain Art Project still on top.

THAT does surprise me.

Nvm, it was done BETWEEN Nov 1 and 13, so the AVERAGE is what we are seeing for Cain. He didn't start to go down until after whosis's press conference, and the foreign policy debate and his Libya comment. I think people didn't know what to believe about the allegations but it made them examine him more carefully, overall. If so, we'd see that show up in a later poll.

[sailingaway]

Thanks for posting this. Great news. My takeaway on it is this caveat:

The poll was compiled through phone interviews conducted between Nov. 1 and 13, and surveyed 979 registered Republicans and 277 registered independents. Of those polled, 377 (30.0 percent) stated that they definitely or probably would attend the Republican caucus on Tuesday, Jan. 3.

Other polls show results based on people likely to attend the caucus. This poll only shows 30% likely. We need to keep up the voter ID phoning so we know who our votes are to then be able to call them to get out and attend the caucus. If you have not thought about doing a bit of phoning please consider doing this. Get our people to the caucuses or it wont matter how high we poll going into it.

This can be done!!!

USUALLY when they say that, those are the only people they poll as their top line, This close to the primary they start to target likely caucus goers, typically.

It isn't clear if they did this time because they don't have their full crosstabs out, that I can find right now, anyhow.

[sailingaway]

They're not on the air now?
I thought Ron Paul was spending more on TV ads there than any candidate.

He was until this week and has no ads up at all. I do note that our moneybomb was less than they asked for this month.


If ads aren't on the air how are we surging?

Ads WERE on the air when the poll was taken. Now Perry and his pac have a huge half million dollar ad buy going.

[sailingaway]

You are saying there are literally NO Ron Paul ads, or just not nearly as many as there were?

zero

[Tunink]

Then we need to put a ticker up, and have a spontaneous moneybomb for a week straight.

http://perform-360.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/benStillerDoIt.jpg

[Eric21ND]

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/11/17/new-poll-iowa-republicans-favor-herman-cain-and-ron-paul/

Cain- 24.5
Paul- 20.4
Romney- 16.3
Everyone else- single digits!

Newt at 4.8 is especially surprising. Great to see confirmation of four surge, and breaking 20% for the first time in any poll ever!!!!!

Other noteworthy items: over 1200 were polled, a pretty large sample size compared to all the Iowa polls on RCP. Also, only 30% of those polled said they definitely or probably would go to the caucus (gotta imagine a disproportionate amount of those fall into the 20% for paul!)
This was done for a 2 week time span, so expect Cain to be down, and Newt to be up. Newt only took off in the last week or so.

[Canderson]

Maintain momentum in Iowa, and blow up NEVADA! We HAVE to upset Romney in Nevada to win!

[Carole]

I believe this simple diagram will help explain the phenomena you've been observing:

http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/5751/elevatoros.jpg

That is really funny. :D:D:D

[craezie]

Maintain momentum in Iowa, and blow up NEVADA! We HAVE to upset Romney in Nevada to win!

That is going to be very, very hard. But 2nd is in the bag. Nevada is Mormon territory, and in 2008 a full quarter of the GOP voters were Mormon, almost all of whom voted for Romney. That's a lot of ground to make up. But then again, if the others aren't seen as so viable anymore, then we have a 75% pot to dip into.

I am surprised at this poll that RP is most popular among low incomes. We are those pesky 1%ers (who started a business and give jobs to other people) and we love Ron Paul because he is the last best hope for true competition among businesses and an end to bogus regulation and crony capitalism. Plus we pay through the nose on taxes and I want to see a more fair tax code. I guess I always assumed that the peeps at the other end of the spectrum who don't pay any federal taxes wouldn't be down with that kind of thing. Then again, Cain's 999 tax plan is an enormous increase on poorer people (9% income plus the extra 9% on everything they buy, which tends to be a big proportion).

[Todd]

I believe that Ron Paul "slammed" this poll. So he should be disqualified.

eevil Bill O'Reilly voice

[helmuth_hubener]

[H]ere's another article about Paul's rise:

http://www.sunherald.com/2011/11/17/...owa-surge.htmlQuite nice, I'd say.

Though, it's surprising there's not more coverage ...I'd say it's quite nice there's not more coverage. I agree with parocks. There is no advantage to getting huge amounts of national coverage right now.

So let's all hope the media ignore this poll. We know about it, and Iowa people will likely hear about it, and it has positive effects on both groups. There's no need for anyone else to know about it.

Winning Iowa is everything. We just need to win Iowa. And more and more, I think we will.

[sailingaway]

two to one spectacular Iowa polls in two days, and the good ones confirm Ron's internals as does the new better NH one. Ron has no reason to fool himself in his internals, and this is Ron, not Cain, what he says is solid.

[TheDrakeMan]

Yeah I think these polls are legit. Two in a row that put Ron Paul in second. This new Rasmusseun one has to be nonsense.

[KingRobbStark]

This is an interisting week.

[sailingaway]

This is an interisting week.

:D

[trey4sports]

I'd like to see what Ron's internal polls look like.

[sailingaway]

I'd like to see what Ron's internal polls look like.

Just before the good polls came out he told a NH audience that he was in second in NH and 'doing very well in Iowa' so he didn't know why the more recent GOP establishment type polls showed differently. After the Bloomberg poll came out he was asked if he was surprised and he said no, that his internal polls had been polling that way for a little while now.

He has the same pollster Rand used, and they were VERY accurate in Rand's race.

[trey4sports]

Just before the good polls came out he told a NH audience that he was in second in NH and 'doing very well in Iowa' so he didn't know why the more recent GOP establishment type polls showed differently. After the Bloomberg poll came out he was asked if he was surprised and he said no, that his internal polls had been polling that way for a little while now.

He has the same pollster Rand used, and they were VERY accurate in Rand's race.

Yes, but I also thought he said something about being a little bit over 10%? I'm not sure if he was talking about NH or Iowa but that stuck in my mind.

[sailingaway]

His a little bit over 10% was with a laugh indicating he meant it was way over 10%, and that it was being minimized by people saying 10%.

[sailingaway]

there is a video on it from new hampshire. I'll see if I can find where I posted it. Unfortunately it might have been in the middle of a thread... :(

[Debrikishaw]

This poll has older data than newer ones. The polling for this one started on November 1st, which was BEFORE
Cain's controversy and Gingrich's surge. That explains Gingrich's low numbers.

[lucent]

We should pay for our own poll. :)

http://www.selzerco.com/services.html

[sailingaway]

This poll has older data than newer ones. The polling for this one started on November 1st, which was BEFORE
Cain's controversy and Gingrich's surge. That explains Gingrich's low numbers.

this covered a long period, and yes, I agree Cain and Newt probably changed places by now.

[lucent]

So what are the odds of Ron Paul staying at a static 10% without fluctuating within the margin of error?

[sailingaway]

I can't find the New Hampshire video right now, but I'll trust Ron's internal polls confirmed by this one AND by bloomberg

[sailingaway]

Yes, but I also thought he said something about being a little bit over 10%? I'm not sure if he was talking about NH or Iowa but that stuck in my mind.

Just now on Hannity, again Ron said these higher polls reflect what his internal polling has been showing for WEEKS now.