PDA

View Full Version : RON PAUL 2ND IN NEW HAMPSHIRE




liberty2012
11-16-2011, 03:35 PM
Looks like the Cain implosion has come full circle. We've grabbed the lion's share of the voters and are now heading VERY strong into the primary season. However, now that Ron is 1st in Iowa and 2nd in NH, he's going to be attacked by the media. We need to remain vigilant and double our efforts. Good luck to everyone.

Check out the article below. Apparently, this poll included over 1,000 respondents, so we're starting to get more evidence that Ron is gaining support.

2nd in NH article
http://concord-nh.patch.com/articles/bloomberg-news-ron-paul-second-in-nh

trey4sports
11-16-2011, 03:36 PM
well, he's actually second in Iowa.

wgadget
11-16-2011, 03:37 PM
As I stated in another thread, it's weird to me that the talking neocon radio heads are avoiding talk about the newest polls with Ron in the lead.

They're getting their ammunition ready, no doubt.

wgadget
11-16-2011, 03:37 PM
well, he's actually second in Iowa.

He's actually in a statistical tie for first in Iowa.

sailingaway
11-16-2011, 03:39 PM
He's first in the power rankings that blend ground game in Iowa.

Yeah, I think he'll be built up first, but then the long knives will come out, and remember the Iowa caucus is right after a major holiday, so media can anticipate media outages so to speak. That is why Obama 'executive order' guaranteed fannie and freddie for unlimited sums -- on Christmas eve, etc

trey4sports
11-16-2011, 03:40 PM
He's actually in a statistical tie for first in Iowa.

yeah..... he's within the margin of error, but he is in second place.

1st place = Herman Cain, 20%
2nd place = Ron Paul, 19%

Keith and stuff
11-16-2011, 03:42 PM
The NH poll was posted undeclared voters, which don't usually make up a majority of the NH GOP Primary, unfortunately.


47 Republican
53 Independent

The IA poll has a problem with sex as a much higher percentage of males were polled. The NH poll is more realistic.


Sex:
IA lkly
CGs
NH lkly
PVs
61 54 Male
39 46 Female

trey4sports
11-16-2011, 03:44 PM
i'm pretty sure both polls were based on previous voting demographics. NH is an open primary with far more registered I's than R's

sailingaway
11-16-2011, 03:44 PM
The NH poll was posted undeclared voters, which don't usually make up a majority of the NH GOP Primary, unfortunately.



The IA poll has a problem with sex as a much higher percentage of males were polled. The NH poll is more realistic.

This is the same pollster who polls for the Des MOines Register and is considered the gold standard for polling the IA caucus. They are the ones who first noted Obama's surge with first time caucusers against Hillary in 2007

speciallyblend
11-16-2011, 04:37 PM
now to try to win NH as well as IOWA:)

Arklatex
11-16-2011, 04:42 PM
I think Paul is actually first in Iowa. Can you imagine that!

Keith and stuff
11-16-2011, 05:06 PM
i'm pretty sure both polls were based on previous voting demographics. NH is an open primary with far more registered I's than R's

The IA polls leans more male than the actual voting demographics. It is true that a very large amount of women may choose to stay home and not vote. We don't know that for sure, though.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2011-07-03-iowa-caucus-republicans_n.htm


The percentage of men who say they plan to attend the Republican caucuses lands in the mid-50 percent range, and the percentage of women the mid-40 percent.

The IA poll we are talking about claims 61 Male to 39 Female. It may breakdown like that, we just don't know.


The NH primary isn't open. It is semi-open. Unregistered, undeclared and Republicans are allowed to vote. Democrats are not.

GeorgiaAvenger
11-16-2011, 06:31 PM
This is great news. 6 points ahead of the Newt. Cain is out of the top 10.

akalucas
11-16-2011, 06:50 PM
The IA polls leans more male than the actual voting demographics. It is true that a very large amount of women may choose to stay home and not vote. We don't know that for sure, though.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2011-07-03-iowa-caucus-republicans_n.htm



The IA poll we are talking about claims 61 Male to 39 Female. It may breakdown like that, we just don't know.


The NH primary isn't open. It is semi-open. Unregistered, undeclared and Republicans are allowed to vote. Democrats are not.


is there any precedent for this? what was the percentage of male to females last go around?

akalucas
11-16-2011, 07:01 PM
is there any precedent for this? what was the percentage of male to females last go around? went ahead and looked myself. last time, in 2008 iowa, the gender break up was as follows: Male 56% and Female 44% so the poll has given, for some reason, a shift of 5% from female to male since they did male 61% and 39% female. It could be because females are not finding the contenders this time around as favorable to them.

forgot to mention the Male 56% and Female 44% data is the statistics from the 2008 iowa caucus for the republican party

Keith and stuff
11-16-2011, 07:43 PM
went ahead and looked myself. last time, in 2008 iowa, the gender break up was as follows: Male 56% and Female 44% so the poll has given, for some reason, a shift of 5% from female to male since they did male 61% and 39% female. It could be because females are not finding the contenders this time around as favorable to them.

Last time around, both the Republicans and Democrats had contested primaries. The female percentage of the the vote might be higher in some caucuses and primaries all over the country. As we know, traditionally, females are less Republican than males when it comes to voting. Males are more likely to vote in GOP primaries and females are more likely to vote in Democratic primaries. Paul is doing great with males but not as good with females.

Since it is very possible that more females vote in the GOP elections than last time, it is very important that Paul improve with female voters.

akalucas
11-16-2011, 07:58 PM
Last time around, both the Republicans and Democrats had contested primaries. The female percentage of the the vote might be higher in some caucuses and primaries all over the country. As we know, traditionally, females are less Republican than males when it comes to voting. Males are more likely to vote in GOP primaries and females are more likely to vote in Democratic primaries. Paul is doing great with males but not as good with females.

Since it is very possible that more females vote in the GOP elections than last time, it is very important that Paul improve with female voters.

interesting.

forgot to mention the Male 56% and Female 44% data is the statistics from the 2008 iowa caucus for the republican party

klamath
11-18-2011, 07:58 AM
Ok, now to be fair, that article did to Romney what media always does to RP. Romney leads by a far margin but the article pretty much only talks about the second place winner;) Be fair guys admit it.

trey4sports
11-18-2011, 08:05 AM
man, i feel so bad for mittens :(

klamath
11-18-2011, 08:27 AM
man, i feel so bad for mittens :(:rolleyes::rolleyes::D fixed it for you:D