Shhhhhh....Ron Paul could win California and therefore the nomination [Archive]

qwerty

11-16-2011, 02:05 PM

The award for the best kept secret in national Republican politics would have to go to Ron Paul for the concentrated effort of mainstream media to discount him as being unelectable and therefore have justified a lack of fair treatment during the debates.

According to two Bloomberg polls released this week, he is not only in a 4-way statistical deadheat in Iowa, but he has now surged to second place in New Hampshire. There was also another Republican straw poll conducted in California, this one in San Diego, where he came in first again in that state by a significant margin (reported here). All California straw polls that I am aware of, Ron Paul has won by a landslide. This is a significant dynamic.

http://www.examiner.com/conservative-in-washington-dc/shhhhhh-ron-paul-could-win-california-and-therefore-the-nomination

dbill27

11-16-2011, 02:07 PM

Are there any legit polls of GOP candidates from Cali among likely primary voters?

acptulsa

11-16-2011, 02:08 PM

Shhhhhhhhout it from the rooftops.

Hey, G.O.P! Want Obama out? Then you want Ron Paul in!

brandon

11-16-2011, 02:08 PM

Is Cali a super Tuesday state?

RonPaulCult

11-16-2011, 02:10 PM

Is Cali a super Tuesday state?\

No, California has its primary in June. It's one of the very last ones and there is almost always a nominated candidate before California votes.

harikaried

11-16-2011, 02:11 PM

California is very late in the process. Somewhere around June I believe. It has a lot of primary votes though.

sailingaway

11-16-2011, 02:11 PM

It was last time but last I saw they moved our primary back to JUNE with other elections to save money. A recent PPP poll wasn't great for Ron, but PPP doesn't poll likely primary voters, I don't think, at least at this point. Besides of all polls, PPP is about the lowest, CBS being the absolUTE lowest...

John F Kennedy III

11-16-2011, 02:18 PM

California is very late in the process. Somewhere around June I believe. It has a lot of primary votes though.

June 5th. I don't know how many votes we have, but it's alot.

harikaried

11-16-2011, 02:25 PM

June 5th. I don't know how many votes we have, but it's alot.There's a total of 2,287 Republican delegates and you need more than half to win (1,144).
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/

Delegate counts of various states:

California 172
Texas 155
Iowa 28
Nevada 28
New Hampshire 12

Different states have different rules on winner-takes-all/by district or proportional.

Deborah K

11-16-2011, 02:26 PM

It's becoming blatently clear to me that the GOP needs Ron Paul voters in order to win the General election. If he doesn't win the nomination, the GOP candidate is screwed. He has come in 1st or 2nd in almost every single straw poll nationwide. That is significant to me because straw polls require people to get up and vote - unlike online or phone polls. The GOP establishment is ignoring Ron at their own peril. Mark my words.

harikaried

11-16-2011, 02:28 PM

Oh, apparently there's a whole thread about delegate counts and dates, etc.

How Ron Paul Wins the Nomination (full nomination schedule, delegate #'s, and analysis)
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?330516-How-Ron-Paul-Wins-the-Nomination-%28full-nomination-schedule-delegate-s-and-analysis%29

airborne373

11-16-2011, 02:32 PM

Hey, G.O.P! Want Obama out? Then you want Ron Paul in!

IMHO ...

The GOP does NOT want Obama out of The White House. The establishment is running smoothly under Obama and the right wing of the establishment is waiting for its turn in 2016. The last thing the old dying GOP establishment wants is RP.

In other words do not count on the GOP for any real support.

Deborah K

11-16-2011, 02:36 PM

IMHO ...

The GOP does NOT want Obama out of The White House. The establishment is running smoothly under Obama and the right wing of the establishment is waiting for its turn in 2016. The last thing the old dying GOP establishment wants is RP.

In other words do not count on the GOP for any real support.

If Ron believed this, I don't think he'd be running on the GOP ticket.

Omnica

11-16-2011, 03:10 PM

The GOP does NOT want Obama out of The White House. The establishment is running smoothly under Obama and the right wing of the establishment is waiting for its turn in 2016. The last thing the old dying GOP establishment wants is RP.

In other words do not count on the GOP for any real support.

Sooo true...

Omnica

11-16-2011, 03:11 PM

If Ron believed this, I don't think he'd be running on the GOP ticket.
What other viable option exists for RP?

He knows the Constitution establishes a Republic, not a Democracy.

LibertyEagle

11-16-2011, 03:23 PM

IMHO ...

The GOP does NOT want Obama out of The White House. The establishment is running smoothly under Obama and the right wing of the establishment is waiting for its turn in 2016. The last thing the old dying GOP establishment wants is RP.

In other words do not count on the GOP for any real support.

That may be true for the establishment at the top, but not for rank and file Republicans. They very much want Obama out.

Kalebthefinn

11-16-2011, 03:29 PM

Karen Kwiatowski believes the GOP does not want to win... see her article on lewrockwell.com

http://lewrockwell.com/kwiatkowski/kwiatkowski278.html

enoch150

11-16-2011, 04:02 PM

anaconda

11-16-2011, 04:09 PM

\

No, California has its primary in June. It's one of the very last ones and there is almost always a nominated candidate before California votes.

In 2008 it was on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5th. It has been moved back to June for 2012. McCain & Mittens combined for 77% of the vote.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Republican_primary,_2008

Elwar

11-16-2011, 04:15 PM

GOP needs to win California in order to win in 2012. McCain lost CA by a lot.

CA has legal marijuana and gay marriage...

What Republican can win there?

Only 2 that I know of.

LibertyEsq

11-16-2011, 04:20 PM

GOP needs to win California in order to win in 2012. McCain lost CA by a lot.

CA has legal marijuana and gay marriage...

What Republican can win there?

Only 2 that I know of.

If the GOP needs to win California to win the general, Obama will win another term.

enoch150

11-16-2011, 04:35 PM

Bush won in 2000 and 2004 without California. The GOP can't lose if it wins California, but it doesn't have to win California in order to win the election.

anaconda

11-16-2011, 04:45 PM

Deborah K

11-16-2011, 04:58 PM

GOP related special interests do far better under an Obama administration than a Paul administration. No?

A better question is: Do you think Romney is going to win against Obama w/out RP voters?

Deborah K

11-16-2011, 05:05 PM

Crickett

11-16-2011, 06:25 PM

Ron Paul won most of the straw polls in 2007, also. They're almost as inaccurate as online polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ca/california_republican_presidential_primary-1567.html
Ron did not win this many straw polls last time..I don't think they even HAD this many last time. His support has grown exponentially and I think in most areas, we have reached the "tipping point". Seems like MOST of the people who post and really do not like Ron are misinformed. This is quite interesting, to me.

RonRules

11-16-2011, 06:43 PM

I'm in California. It's very libertarian or democrat here. Very few republican fundies here.

Lots of pot growing / pot using people in California love Ron Paul.

It's all good for Ron here and I'll do my best to keep it that way.

craezie

11-16-2011, 06:50 PM

Um, hate to burst your bubble, but California has neither legal marijuana nor gay marriage. Both issues have been on recent general election ballots (through the proposition process), and both were voted down by a narrow margin.

California does have a LOT more conservatives than people think (just not enough to win most generals) and there are a few issues that Ron Paul is great on. For one, most people on the West Coast HATE the wars. We also have a much bigger economy than most states, and care a lot about business freedom and regulation. Most people are libertarian on social issues, but want to get the economy moving.

acptulsa

11-16-2011, 07:40 PM

If Ron believed this, I don't think he'd be running on the GOP ticket.

Oh? There's a better ticket for a conservative to run on?

Don't forget that Ron Paul considered the Libertarian Party more useful to him than the G.O.P. until he ran into the 'don't throw your vote away on a third party' prejudice in the populace. Ron Paul isn't in the G.O.P. for G.O.P. insider support. Ron Paul is in the G.O.P. to make himself palatable to the public.

No, the insiders don't really want Obama out--particularly not if it means Ron Paul gets in. Definitely not.

Deborah K

11-16-2011, 07:59 PM

Oh? There's a better ticket for a conservative to run on?

Don't forget that Ron Paul considered the Libertarian Party more useful to him than the G.O.P. until he ran into the 'don't throw your vote away on a third party' prejudice in the populace. Ron Paul isn't in the G.O.P. for G.O.P. insider support. Ron Paul is in the G.O.P. to make himself palatable to the public.

No, the insiders don't really want Obama out--particularly not if it means Ron Paul gets in. Definitely not.

I just don't buy that. I know tptb don't want RP in the White House. But that doesn't include the entire GOP party. Ron Paul is running on the Republican ticket because (with the exception of his 1988 run) he's always been a conservative Republican. It's not to make himself palatable to the public. And I believe he's in it to win it. I also believe he CAN win it - if the people rise up. It's our job to make sure they do.

enoch150

11-17-2011, 10:55 AM

Do you any stats to back up that assertion?

Yes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8SgZELRjpo

And that only goes through mid November, 2007. They got even more lopsided as time went on.

enoch150

11-17-2011, 11:02 AM

Ron did not win this many straw polls last time..I don't think they even HAD this many last time. His support has grown exponentially and I think in most areas, we have reached the "tipping point". Seems like MOST of the people who post and really do not like Ron are misinformed. This is quite interesting, to me.

You're a fool if you think I don't like Ron Paul just because I don't believe straw poll results are reflective of how Paul will do in the primary.

I gave the speech on behalf of Ron Paul at the Connecticut Republican straw poll in January 2008. Out of 250 votes cast, we finished 2nd behind McCain, only 3 votes away from first.

A week later we got 4% in the primary.

acptulsa

11-17-2011, 11:08 AM

You're a fool if you think I don't like Ron Paul just because I don't believe straw poll results are reflective of how Paul will do in the primary.

Agreed. Realism is no vice to us. We need doses of it. But I think you're wrong to consider the statement that most people who dislike Ron Paul are misinformed personally. I don't know of that means you, but I seriously think not. But you can't deny that there's reality in the statement.

I believe straw polls are more indicative of how caucuses will turn out than of how primary votes will turn out, because a simple vote is a pretty disconnected process, while straw poll events and caucuses are more closely related--they require a little time and that time allows you to make a connection with people. We need to find a way to make that connection with people. If we can, then even primary vote states could look more like our excellent straw polls.

I wish every state could be Iowa. How can we make them all more like that?

Debrikishaw

11-17-2011, 01:46 PM

Deborah K

11-17-2011, 01:51 PM

Yes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8SgZELRjpo

And that only goes through mid November, 2007. They got even more lopsided as time went on.

That clip you posted doesn't prove that straw polls are inaccurate, it only proves that the media discounts them when Ron comes in first or second. No news there.....

Debrikishaw

11-17-2011, 01:54 PM

That clip you posted doesn't prove that straw polls are inaccurate, it only proves that the media discounts them when Ron comes in first or second. No news there.....
A high school statistics textbook would show that straw polls are inaccurate.

Deborah K

11-17-2011, 01:54 PM

We need a reality check. If any of you guys took a statistics class in high school, you should know that straw polls are an inaccurate representation of the voting population, because of voluntary response bias.

So we should just ignore the Iowa straw poll, the CPAC straw poll, the Value Voters poll, and on and on? Straw polls give a much more credible portrayal than do online or phone polls, imo, since effort to vote in them is required. It most certainly is a gauge for who is seriously being considered for the office.

Debrikishaw

11-17-2011, 02:04 PM

So we should just ignore the Iowa straw poll, the CPAC straw poll, the Value Voters poll, and on and on? Straw polls give a much more credible portrayal than do online or phone polls, imo, since effort to vote in them is required. It most certainly is a gauge for who is seriously being considered for the office.
You know that Ron Paul has the most fervent supporters and followers out of any candidate who vote in these polls. Online polls are even more inaccurate. It's called voluntary response bias, and nonresponse bias applies as well. Straw Polls don't accurately represent who is actually going to vote in the primaries. If you're looking to gauge how many people will vote in the republican primaries for each candidate, a sample survey of likely voters is without a doubt the best method.

The fact that only those with much stronger opinions or reasons to vote in these polls is exactly why they're inaccurate. How many Ron Paul supporters do you see actively willing to change their opinion and vote for another GOP candidate? Compare that to the supporters of other candidates - their support base is much much much more loose. It's just not a good representation

KingRobbStark

11-17-2011, 02:13 PM

enoch150

11-17-2011, 06:31 PM

That clip you posted doesn't prove that straw polls are inaccurate, it only proves that the media discounts them when Ron comes in first or second. No news there.....

What? That clip showed Paul coming in first in 22 straw polls, and there were plenty more wins after that video was made. He didn't win a single state in the primaries. How is it possible to even pretend that straw polls remotely accurate?

Straw polls are good for showing that there is *some* level of support - which is an important component of electability, even if it's not an accurate level - and are good for getting his name in the paper. Maybe while you're at a straw poll you can convince a few other people to Paul's team. Nothing else.

1836

11-17-2011, 07:02 PM

http://www.examiner.com/conservative-in-washington-dc/shhhhhh-ron-paul-could-win-california-and-therefore-the-nomination

This really doesn't seem to show much of anything that indicates Ron Paul is going to sneak up from behind and win California.

Besides, it wouldn't happen like that. California is one of the last primaries and will therefore be the subject of a huge amount of attention from all campaigns still in it at the time. Plus, delegates are pledged, not uncommitted, meaning that our supporters wouldn't be able to game the process and get into delegate spots. They'll be bound to the percentages of the candidates' performances.

The Examiner misses the boat sometimes.