Bloomberg News Poll- NH- Romney 40%, Paul 17%, Gingrich 11%

[pulp8721]

I'm suddenly becoming a much bigger fan of bloomberg these days :):

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-16/romney-holds-commanding-lead-in-new-hampshire.html

[low preference guy]

*HUGE EYES*

WOW!!!

[Karsten]

Well it's a bigger gap. But still, a solid 2nd, and if we win Iowa our numbers will spike in NH between IA and NH.

[michaelkellenger]

HOLY SHIT!!!!!!!!!! RUN RON RUN!!!! RUN RON RUNN!!!


RUN RON RUN!!! Has turned into ROLL RON ROLL. ROLL RON ROLL. ROLL RON ROLL!!!

[pauladin]

paul vs. romney race

[IterTemporis]

Yay (:.

[rp08orbust]

Holy crap

[dbill27]

Why is Romney so damn popular in NH?

[michaelkellenger]

But seriously....40% of New Hampshire republicans support Romney?? I laugh anytime and every time I hear that New Hampshire is the Live Free or Die State.

[low preference guy]

But seriously....40% of New Hampshire republicans support Romney?? I laugh anytime and every time I hear that New Hampshire is the Live Free or Die State.

I'm not so sure he'll keep that.

[IterTemporis]

Hm, so Cain got 8%... The latest poll, Rasmussen, showed him at 17%.

[MisterTickle]

OH MY GOD.. IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE 2ND PLACE WHAT IS HAPPENING!?

[Karsten]

I'm not so sure he'll keep that.

Like I'm saying, our numbers will skyrocket when we win Iowa.

[pauliticalfan]

In the 2000 Republican primary, Arizona Senator John McCain came from behind to defeat George W. Bush. A WMUR/CNN poll in September 1999 gave Bush a 33 percentage point advantage over McCain. The senator won the primary in January with 49 percent support compared to 30 percent for Bush, then the governor of Texas.

Sound familiar?

A solid second place with 17% in New Hampshire at this point in time is a good place to be. If we win in Iowa, everything changes. We need to keep working hard full steam ahead.

[low preference guy]

OH MY GOD.. IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE 2ND PLACE WHAT IS HAPPENING!?

we have reached the critical point, apparently.

[Inkblots]

The momentum is building! The media are having difficulty keeping people from learning about Ron Paul now that they've exhausted their supply of flavors of the month, and we may just be seeing the leading edge of the result.

We must redouble our efforts toward donating and volunteering if we want to catch this wave!

[IterTemporis]

Paul’s contact rate with voters is the only one that matches Romney’s, at 52 percent in New Hampshire. The rate at which his campaign is able to bring those likely voters into the fold is 22 percent, half that of Romney at 44 percent. “A lot of people aren’t giving him the press that he needs,” said Kristine Haase, 26, a customer service representative in rural New Hampshire. “There’s more people supporting him then they really know.”

The campaign is doing a great job.

[cero]

what the fuck....

[pauliticalfan]

We need to back this strong polling performance with equally strong fundraising. Donate, everything helps!

[South Park Fan]

Great news, though I fear that Bloomberg might just be an optimistic pollster. If this is true, it puts us in a good position to narrow the gap or pull an upset if Iowa has a particularly cold Tuesday.

[harikaried]

Romney 40
Paul 17
Gingrich 11
Cain 8
Huntsman 7
Perry 3
Bachmann 2
Santorum 1


Assuming RCP replaces the current 3rd oldest poll.. new averages would be:

Romney 40.3
Paul 13.3
Cain 12.7
Gingrich 12
Huntsman 6.7
Perry 3.7
Bachmann 2.3
Santorum 1

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html

[Karsten]

I think I'll go ahead and schedule my Obama-Paul debate watching party at my house. You're all invited.

[Karsten]

Great news, though I fear that Bloomberg might just be an optimistic pollster. If this is true, it puts us in a good position to narrow the gap or pull an upset if Iowa has a particularly cold Tuesday.

Optimistic pollster? lol
No way Bloomberg WANTS Ron Paul to be that high!

[rp08orbust]

If wonder if hints of these new polls numbers were driving Ron's Intrade surge last week, which seemed to come out of nowhere (but which has faded somewhat since the See BS debate).

[ScotTX]

Over the 15% hump...finally!

[Echoes]

Movin on up, good news.

New Hampshire folks need to wake the fuck up though. Man, you simply CANNOT have a slogan "live free or die" and vote in Romney. That would be a travesty !

[Karsten]

The campaign needs a strong anti-Romney pro-Ron Paul ad specifically for NH NOW!!!

[harikaried]

While ahead, Romney doesn’t have the race locked up. Sixty- six percent of Romney backers say they could be persuaded to support another candidate, a fluidity in support that is true for other candidates, as well. Those numbers aren’t surprising given New Hampshire’s history of delivering election night upsets.
We need to keep doing voter identification to win Iowa and convince these weak/undecided Romney supporters to back Paul!

http://phone.ronpaul2012.com

[dusman]

But seriously....40% of New Hampshire republicans support Romney?? I laugh anytime and every time I hear that New Hampshire is the Live Free or Die State.

Live Free or Die...

Live Free or Flop?

Awesome numbers, nonetheless. We all knew this was leading toward a Paul vs. Romney race. :)

[Anti Federalist]

Why is Romney so damn popular in NH?

He has nice hair, people know his name, he has a summer house there and umm, well...errrr....

[dbill27]

I can't see that high of a percentage of Romney people showing up to vote on primary day, especially if it looks like it's in the bag for him.

[Karsten]

Remember 2007, hoping that the 3% would turn into 5%?

[Echoes]

Any chance Huntsman is gonna drop out ?? We need his 7%, those are Ron supporters !

[dbill27]

Any chance Huntsman is gonna drop out ?? We need his 7%, those are Ron supporters !

I'm not sure it helps us if candidates drop out, I mean, what's to say they don't just go to equally liberal romney? I think the more candidates in till the end the better, people really don't get off the Paul train.

[Anti Federalist]

The campaign needs a strong anti-Romney pro-Ron Paul ad specifically for NH NOW!!!

I've decided to run these, in some of the local papers, on my own dime.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?327473-quot-And-there-s-no-way-no-way-I-ll-vote-for-Romney.-quot-Read-on-this-may-be-THE-issue.

http://i.imgur.com/R2tFG.jpg

[dusman]

I'm not sure it helps us if candidates drop out, I mean, what's to say they don't just go to equally liberal romney? I think the more candidates in till the end the better, people really don't get off the Paul train.

Ew.. ::shudders::

Call it the Paul Jet or something else, lol. :)

[Echoes]

I'm not sure it helps us if candidates drop out, I mean, what's to say they don't just go to equally liberal romney? I think the more candidates in till the end the better, people really don't get off the Paul train.

Cuz Huntsman has antiwar supporters, he wants to end the Afghan war. Many would slide on over to Ron.

[IterTemporis]

This has been such a wondrous 24 hours. I cannot stop smiling (:.

I bet Paul will be beaming at the next interview thanks to these amazing numbers.

[Fermli]

The campaign needs to keep doing whatever it's doing, because it's working

FYP

[dbill27]

Ew.. ::shudders::

Call it the Paul Jet or something else, lol. :)

HAHA

[GunnyFreedom]

re-double. re-triple our push. No backing off the gas now. When the wave comes you paddle like hell or you miss it. IT'S TIME TO PUSH LIKE WE NEVER PUSHED BEFORE!

[dbill27]

Cuz Huntsman has antiwar supporters, he wants to end the Afghan war. Many would slide on over to Ron.

Yeah, I just don't see him having many votes from anti-war conservatives. If they're really anti-war conservatives why go with the anti-war liberal and not paul? I think Huntsman gets extremely moderate or blue republicans like romney does. They like him and his china experience blah blah blah...

[sailingaway]

I've decided to run these, in some of the local papers, on my own dime.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?327473-quot-And-there-s-no-way-no-way-I-ll-vote-for-Romney.-quot-Read-on-this-may-be-THE-issue.

http://i.imgur.com/R2tFG.jpg

+rep!!

[CaptainAmerica]

Why is Romney so damn popular in NH?

Thats exactly what Im wondering

[GunnyFreedom]

+rep!!

I would too, but I just repped him for something else and it won't let me :p

[michaelkellenger]

I've decided to run these, in some of the local papers, on my own dime.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?327473-quot-And-there-s-no-way-no-way-I-ll-vote-for-Romney.-quot-Read-on-this-may-be-THE-issue.

http://i.imgur.com/R2tFG.jpg

+rep as well

[sailingaway]

Yeah, I just don't see him having many votes from anti-war conservatives. If they're really anti-war conservatives why go with the anti-war liberal and not paul? I think Huntsman gets extremely moderate or blue republicans like romney does. They like him and his china experience blah blah blah...

If they are anti war enough it doesn't matter if they are liberal or conservative. They will go with the antiwar candidate.

[Jingles]

I still have yet to meet a single Romney supporter ever. Who are these people?

[dbill27]

I still have yet to meet a single Romney supporter ever. Who are these people?

I had an exchange from one online once, he told me to read about King Hebenezzar? and then I would stop supporting paul, whose supporters are obama supporters in disguise. Seriously, what he said.

[eaglesfan48]

wow, Paul surging. 2nd place by 1% in Iowa. Lets do it grassroots!

[VictorB]

This is a great quote about from from the article:

“A lot of people aren’t giving him the press that he needs,” said Kristine Haase, 26, a customer service representative in rural New Hampshire. “There’s more people supporting him then they really know.”

[Inkblots]

I had an exchange from one online once, he told me to read about King Hebenezzar? and then I would stop supporting paul, whose supporters are obama supporters in disguise. Seriously, what he said.

Maybe he meant King Belshazzar? Or King Hezekiah? I fail to see the connection, in either case.

[SchleckBros]

Drudge it? Hopefully articles with better headlines come out.

[NeoconTea]

Our new slogan in New Hampshire HAS to be "LIVE FREE or VOTE ROMNEY!"

[kah13176]

Bloomberg's polls are accurate. They predicted the 2008 Iowa caucus results down to the point: they even had Paul at 9% (what he got) compared to the 3% that everyone else said.

[Sola_Fide]

Let's arrange a ONE ON ONE debate with Ron and Romney.

We need to focus this entire race on a choice between Romney and Paul. It is our chance...probably our only chance.

[Inkblots]

Let's arrange a ONE ON ONE debate with Ron and Romney.

We need to focus this entire race on a choice between Romney and Paul. It is our chance...probably our only chance.

Romney would never agree to it. His goal is to win by default, and therefore he is always careful to never say or do anything, although he occasionally slips up and states a policy position.

[Xelaetaks]

Forget about CNN and Fox News. This is the real deal right here. Fuck the msn if they don't want us who cares. If the campaign keeps up at this rate we may just blow the whole establishment apart!!! Seriously. The Ron Paul campaign is on a roll!! Good times.

[dbill27]

Our new slogan in New Hampshire HAS to be "LIVE FREE or VOTE ROMNEY!"


I like that.

[Keith and stuff]

Why is Romney so damn popular in NH?

The article covers a lot of it. He lives in NH part time. He was gov. of MA. He has given money and volunteers to Republicans running for office in NH for 4 years (something no other candidate has really done at all.) His campaign has reached out to more voters than anyone else in NH and when they do, they are good at getting the voters (twice as good as Paul's campaign.)

[Canderson]

we don't need to win NH. These first states aren't winner takes all so 17% gives us a ton of delegates. We have a much better chance to upset Romney in Nevada.

[Keith and stuff]

But seriously....40% of New Hampshire republicans support Romney?? I laugh anytime and every time I hear that New Hampshire is the Live Free or Die State.

There is no denying that NH is the freest state in the US.

Ron Paul did just about the best of any of the primary states in NH in 2008 and is currently polling highest in NH of all of the primary states.

More good bills passed in NH this year than any other state.

More pro-liberty state legislators were elected in NH in 2010 than any other state.

Please don't get me wrong folks. I am a Ron Paul supporter. I was a local organizer for him in 2008. I am friends with several of the grassroots organizers and some of the paid staff in NH. My place is used as a Ron Paul sign distribution center for my local area. I made a video promoting Ron Paul.

However, I tend to know about New Hampshire and New Hampshire politics. I also tend to make assessments that are pretty balanced when it comes to NH politics. I understand if you disagree with me, but I'm not the enemy :)

Why?

Did you read the article? The article covers a lot of it. He lives in NH part time. He was gov. of MA. He has given money and volunteers to Republicans running for office in NH for 4 years (something no other candidate has really done at all.) His campaign has reached out to more voters than anyone else in NH and when they do, they are good at getting the voters (twice as good as Paul's campaign.)

As for Romney, outside of Ron Paul and Gary Johnson, he may use the most reasonable soundbites for fiscal conservatives. For example, he called for firing 10% of the federal work force. He also called for cutting spending by 500 billion. He also called for a Balanced Budget Amendment and reducing the corporate tax rate to the same 25% Ron Paul supports. He promised to repeal Obamacare and so on. He is like a slick used cars salesmen, but a smart one. He is certainly smarter than Cain, Perry, Bachmann and Santorum.

[YankeesJunkie]

If Paul is able to get second in NH that has to be a huge victory for Paul. Romney will win NH regardless of whatever happens since NH is so close to Mass. as long as Paul can finish second then it will not hurt him, but rather help him.

[Karsten]

Romney does not have New Hampshire in the bag.
Look throughout history what happens when someone wins Iowa. Their poll numbers jump overnight for NH.
Dean being ahead or Kerry by about the same amount that Romney is ahead of Paul now until Kerry wins Iowa is a good example.

[simplyjacy]

although it is a solid 2nd but it is pretty a huge gap. are we doing enough to win NH? from an outsider's point of view, i see more activity and involvement with IOWA as compared to NH. if there's something we (non-key states supporters) can do, let us know.

[misterx]

If Paul and Romney come in 1 and 2 in Iowa and NH that severely damages all other campaigns and most will drop out. A win in NH is not necessary; a solid second would pretty much make it a two man race between Paul and Romney.

[Keith and stuff]

although it is a solid 2nd but it is pretty a huge gap. are we doing enough to win NH? from an outsider's point of view, i see more activity and involvement with IOWA as compared to NH. if there's something we (non-key states supporters) can do, let us know.

You can apply for this, tell your friends about it and promote it on the Ron Paul Forums :)

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?329302-New-Year%E2%80%99s-with-Ron-Paul-in-New-Hampshire-%28Jan.-2-2012-to-Jan.-11-2012%29


Christmas Vacation with Ron Paul
Spend your Christmas Vacation with Ron Paul!

Please fill out this form to sign up for one of our get-out-the-vote (GOTV) programs—to apply for both, submit two separate applications:

• Christmas with Ron Paul in Iowa (Dec. 27, 2011 to Jan. 4, 2012)
• New Year's with Ron Paul in New Hampshire (Jan. 2, 2012 to Jan. 11, 2012)

The campaign will provide for all participants' meals, lodging, and transportation (once you're in the state). All you have to do is get to Iowa or New Hampshire.

Your efforts could determine the outcome of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary. In close elections, the campaign with the best on-the-ground effort and organization will succeed.

Spots are limited and will go quickly. If selected, you will lead the campaign's effort to get out the vote in the key states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

[Karsten]

If Paul and Romney come in 1 and 2 in Iowa and NH that severely damages all other campaigns and most will drop out. A win in NH is not necessary; a solid second would pretty much make it a two man race between Paul and Romney.

Bottom line (even when the topic is NH): We need to WIN Iowa!

[akalucas]

Bloomberg's polls are accurate. They predicted the 2008 Iowa caucus results down to the point: they even had Paul at 9% (what he got) compared to the 3% that everyone else said. the guy that they hire to do the poll does polls that are considered the gold standard in the field. He does them right and now there will be pressure on PPP and others to be more accurate and also show this trend.

[RDM]

Why is Romney so damn popular in NH?

This article will explain it:

http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/magazine/96112/unremitting-mitt-romney-new-hampshire-gop-primaries?passthru=NmQwMjRmMDIzODcyNmU5NzI3Yzg0MjZ lM2U4NDEzMmM

[RDM]

Any chance Huntsman is gonna drop out ?? We need his 7%, those are Ron supporters !

Highly doubt it. He just bought a $600,000 ad buy in NH.

[ventron]

although it is a solid 2nd but it is pretty a huge gap. are we doing enough to win NH? from an outsider's point of view, i see more activity and involvement with IOWA as compared to NH. if there's something we (non-key states supporters) can do, let us know.

3 words. Phone, From, and uh... what's the third one? Oops.

[giovannile07]

Yes, another push! :) Things are looking up, front-runner Paul! =) Now we just need to show how bad Romney is...


Romney would never agree to it. His goal is to win by default, and therefore he is always careful to never say or do anything, although he occasionally slips up and states a policy position.
Reminds me of one of the earlier debates, the people hosting the debate were like what do you define as rich Romney? And he was like Oh I want everyone to be rich and he never really gave an answer.

[Patrick Henry]

same here.
I still have yet to meet a single Romney supporter ever. Who are these people?

[IDefendThePlatform]

I've decided to run these, in some of the local papers, on my own dime.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?327473-quot-And-there-s-no-way-no-way-I-ll-vote-for-Romney.-quot-Read-on-this-may-be-THE-issue.

http://i.imgur.com/R2tFG.jpg

That's freaking awesome. +rep

[speciallyblend]

cnn this morning reporting newt surging, facepalm.

[speciallyblend]

obviously the new meme is newt surge and newt fluff. As they still blackout ron paul. newt has so much baggage. He is baggage.

[R3volutionJedi]

A win in iowa and a close secound in Nh seems possible every day! Keep it up! don't drop the ball! that goes for this whole movement! Phone bank!!!

[Justinfrom1776]

The Anti-Romney candidate has arrived.

[Working Poor]

Wow I am so happy I am spreading the news! :D

[Carole]

This is troubling that Romney has so much support. What is happening with the big controversy over the power lines that they are trying to force through the state?

Isn't Romney supporting this project? Update on this please? :)

[musicmax]

Great news, though I fear that Bloomberg might just be an optimistic pollster. If this is true, it puts us in a good position to narrow the gap or pull an upset if Iowa has a particularly cold Tuesday.

Selzer, the company that conducted both Bloomberg polls, was incredibly accurate on the Iowa caucuses in 2007/08. I think Fred Thompson was the only candidate who they missed by more than 2%.

[Patrick Henry]

I imagine Romney is both for and against the project.
This is troubling that Romney has so much support. What is happening with the big controversy over the power lines that they are trying to force through the state?

Is Romney supporting this project or against it? Update on this please? :)

[Carole]

See 2008 primary map here:

h xxp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary,_2008

The urban area was Romney's strength.

[Fort Lauderdale]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbG9CceFKtc

[icon124]

Don't read the article it will probably piss you off.

It talks about Ron Paul in second place for all of one sentence. It even goes into detail of Huntsman and everyone in the single digits.....

[LibertyEsq]

Focus needs to be 100% on IOWA. Campaign should have a Paul v. Romney contrast ad ready to go after Iowa caucuses. If we win Iowa, NH could follow, and winning BOTH would be an absolute boon to the campagin

[Carole]

Any chance Huntsman is gonna drop out ?? We need his 7%, those are Ron supporters !

Information needs to get out about Huntsman's globalist and global warming, etc. stances.

[LibertyEsq]

Yeah, I just don't see him having many votes from anti-war conservatives. If they're really anti-war conservatives why go with the anti-war liberal and not paul? I think Huntsman gets extremely moderate or blue republicans like romney does. They like him and his china experience blah blah blah...

As a Ron Paul Republican I can firmly state that Huntsman would be my second choice in THIS field of candidates. He's probably taking votes from us

[69360]

This article will explain it:

http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/magazine/96112/unremitting-mitt-romney-new-hampshire-gop-primaries?passthru=NmQwMjRmMDIzODcyNmU5NzI3Yzg0MjZ lM2U4NDEzMmM

That's it. Thanks for posting that, I was about to. Romney paid off every GOP candidate in the state.

Second in NH is awsome considering this. Keep up the good work everyone! We are going to win this, we're hitting the tipping point and the others are fading.

[Carole]

I imagine Romney is both for and against the project.

:D:D:D

I edited to show him supporting it. :D:D:D
But you are so correct; he will both support and not support it. :)

[limequat]

As a Ron Paul Republican I can firmly state that Huntsman would be my second choice in THIS field of candidates. He's probably taking votes from us

Yeah, probably a few. But if half is support goes Romney, its a net zero at best. Besides, he's pinning all of his hopes on NH, so he certainly won't drop before then.

[tremendoustie]

But seriously....40% of New Hampshire republicans support Romney?? I laugh anytime and every time I hear that New Hampshire is the Live Free or Die State.

No state is majority libertarian, but NH has the most libertarians and the highest concentration of liberty activists by far. We're moving in the right direction, while most states move in the wrong direction -- and we're already the freest state in the nation.

[ross11988]

Focus needs to be 100% on IOWA. Campaign should have a Paul v. Romney contrast ad ready to go after Iowa caucuses. If we win Iowa, NH could follow, and winning BOTH would be an absolute boon to the campagin

Agreed. At this point what good are all these great numbers if we end up in 3rd in Iowa! Still waiting for the campaign to approve my application to spend a Christmas with the campaign in Iowa!

[milo10]

There is no denying that NH is the freest state in the US.

Ron Paul did just about the best of any of the primary states in NH in 2008 and is currently polling highest in NH of all of the primary states.

More good bills passed in NH this year than any other state.

More pro-liberty state legislators were elected in NH in 2010 than any other state.

Please don't get me wrong folks. I am a Ron Paul supporter. I was a local organizer for him in 2008. I am friends with several of the grassroots organizers and some of the paid staff in NH. My place is used as a Ron Paul sign distribution center for my local area. I made a video promoting Ron Paul.

However, I tend to know about New Hampshire and New Hampshire politics. I also tend to make assessments that are pretty balanced when it comes to NH politics. I understand if you disagree with me, but I'm not the enemy :)

Why?

Did you read the article? The article covers a lot of it. He lives in NH part time. He was gov. of MA. He has given money and volunteers to Republicans running for office in NH for 4 years (something no other candidate has really done at all.) His campaign has reached out to more voters than anyone else in NH and when they do, they are good at getting the voters (twice as good as Paul's campaign.)

As for Romney, outside of Ron Paul and Gary Johnson, he may use the most reasonable soundbites for fiscal conservatives. For example, he called for firing 10% of the federal work force. He also called for cutting spending by 500 billion. He also called for a Balanced Budget Amendment and reducing the corporate tax rate to the same 25% Ron Paul supports. He promised to repeal Obamacare and so on. He is like a slick used cars salesmen, but a smart one. He is certainly smarter than Cain, Perry, Bachmann and Santorum.

Informative post, Keith, thanks. What is your assessment if Ron wins Iowa, and how that would effect the campaign in NH? Is there simply tepid support for Romney there based on familiarity, and a dismissal of Ron Paul with a "he can't win" mentality? Would voters flock to Ron Paul if they see him as a very serious contender?

I think I speak for a lot of people here in that I have no real experience with Mitt Romney supporters. LOL I have some rough understanding of them (moderate Republicans who pride themselves on practicality rather than thinking in terms of theoretical consistency or fundamentals), but I still don't understand what motivates them. :) Wouldn't they be excited by a candidate who is going to get rid of the capital gains tax, and ultimately the income tax?

[Tina]

+rep as well

Great ad!

[jkob]

This is good news, I won't worry about Romney having near 40%. I'd have to imagine a few people will drop out immediately after Iowa like Bachmann and Santorum so their supporters will be looking for a candidate that isn't Mitt Romney. I think Ron would get quite a bump from winning Iowa and could challenge Romney in NH. We might not win in NH but Ron can at least solidify himself as THEE anti-establishment anti-Romney candidate.

[milo10]

Focus needs to be 100% on IOWA. Campaign should have a Paul v. Romney contrast ad ready to go after Iowa caucuses. If we win Iowa, NH could follow, and winning BOTH would be an absolute boon to the campagin

Not disagreeing, but want to point out that New Hampshire is only 7 days after Iowa:

Iowa caucus: 3 January
New Hampshire primary: 10 January
South Carolina primary: 28 January
Florida primary: 31 January

We're fortunate to have a whole 18 days between NH and SC.

The thing is, if we win Iowa, then everything changes, especially if we have a comfortable margin. I suspect some high-level endorsements, a vast boost in credibility nationwide, the media can no longer ignore us, etc..

[trey4sports]

Any chance Huntsman is gonna drop out ?? We need his 7%, those are Ron supporters !

I doubt it. He probably takes some anti-war votes but i imagine the majority of his support comes from moderates and liberal republicans.


we don't need to win NH. These first states aren't winner takes all so 17% gives us a ton of delegates. We have a much better chance to upset Romney in Nevada.

We need wins early. If the media is going to treat us like a front-runner we're going to have to win some early states.


Romney does not have New Hampshire in the bag.
Look throughout history what happens when someone wins Iowa. Their poll numbers jump overnight for NH.
Dean being ahead or Kerry by about the same amount that Romney is ahead of Paul now until Kerry wins Iowa is a good example.


yeah, but Romney has a nice lead and he's from the Northeast. I think Iowa has to be the primary goal and then use hopefully that momentum will carry us into NH. Don't know if that is enough to WIN N.H. but i hope it is.

[kylejack]

Why is Romney so damn popular in NH?
The southern part of New Hampshire is more populous than the northern half. Many people live in southern New Hampshire and commute to jobs in Boston. Mass has been generally satisfied with Mitt Romney, so it probably rubs off on some of the commuters.

[jkob]

Hillary overcame a pretty huge lead at the last moment to win NH too. Things can change fast. I def think the main focus should be on Iowa tho, if we win Iowa there is no way we do worse than 2nd in NH. Of course can't put all our eggs in one basket either, a 2nd place finish in Iowa would still be a great result.

[parocks]

See 2008 primary map here:

h xxp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary,_2008

The urban area was Romney's strength.

That's more like the Massachusetts border. The new developments. The Boston Suburbs. People do commute from NH to Boston.

[parocks]

Hillary overcame a pretty huge lead at the last moment to win NH too. Things can change fast. I def think the main focus should be on Iowa tho, if we win Iowa there is no way we do worse than 2nd in NH. Of course can't put all our eggs in one basket either, a 2nd place finish in Iowa would still be a great result.

Hillary = Michael Whouley GOTV

http://www.hillaryis44.org/2007/12/15/surprise-and-hooray-its-michael-whouley-day/ - Whouley is the best at GOTV, read that for some of his GOTV tricks.

[kill the banks]

hit the phones

[parocks]

Bloomberg talked to a lot of kids in these polls.

[mwkaufman]

Romney was very popular there in the 2008 race too; he did get 32% of the vote in the primary.

American Res. Group New Hampshire Poll 11/26/07-11/29/07

Romney 36%
Giuliani 22%
Huckabee 13%
McCain 11%
Thompson 3%
Paul 2%

Romney has a bigger lead this year, but nothing to suggest he's untouchable. If McCain can win from 25 points back, we can win from 23 points back.

[Eric21ND]

If Paul and Romney come in 1 and 2 in Iowa and NH that severely damages all other campaigns and most will drop out. A win in NH is not necessary; a solid second would pretty much make it a two man race between Paul and Romney.
A two man race going into South Carolina, which isn't Romney territory by any stretch :D

[trey4sports]

just now looked at the crosstabs of the polls. Ron's "would vote for/would not vote for" (essentially favorables) were very good in bopth states. Essentially, second only to Mittens.

[johndeal]

Guess my phone from home calls to New Hampshire are helping. Start making calls.

[trey4sports]

869870

check the attached pictures

[ross11988]

869870

check the attached pictures

Awesome I like

[Eric21ND]

Not disagreeing, but want to point out that New Hampshire is only 7 days after Iowa:

Iowa caucus: 3 January
New Hampshire primary: 10 January
South Carolina primary: 28 January
Florida primary: 31 January

We're fortunate to have a whole 18 days between NH and SC.

The thing is, if we win Iowa, then everything changes, especially if we have a comfortable margin. I suspect some high-level endorsements, a vast boost in credibility nationwide, the media can no longer ignore us, etc..

Iowa caucus: 3 January WIN IOWA
New Hampshire primary: 10 January STRONG 2ND PLACE
South Carolina primary: 28 January WIN SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE ANTI-ROMNEY
Florida primary: 31 January ELECTION MIGHT BE OVER IF WE WIN SOUTH CAROLINA

[kylejack]

SC and Florida are going to be tough, even with momentum. Nevada will be great for us, though.

[braane]

869870

check the attached pictures

Good numbers. Thanks for sharing. +rep

[JohnGalt23g]

Why is Romney so damn popular in NH?

NH has a lot of Masshole ex-pats, who voted for Romney as governor. I believe Mitt also has a house in NH.

[bluesc]

Holy shit, some sweet numbers lately. NH people need to get fired up.

[Todd]

I still have yet to meet a single Romney supporter ever. Who are these people?



same here.

got one sitting right beside me at work....fortunately he lives in Virginia. lol..

[zerosdontcount]

I'm in disbelief, we need to hold this momentum. PHONEBANK

[Jeremy]

Iowa caucus: 3 January WIN IOWA
New Hampshire primary: 10 January STRONG 2ND PLACE
South Carolina primary: 28 January WIN SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE ANTI-ROMNEY
Florida primary: 31 January ELECTION MIGHT BE OVER IF WE WIN SOUTH CAROLINA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0nyOyrprIs

[Fredom101]

I think what this shows is.....



Newt is NOT catching on. People aren't buying his bullshit. :)

[Fredom101]

SC and Florida are going to be tough, even with momentum. Nevada will be great for us, though.

Not so fast. Romney is extremely popular in Nevada. Lots of mormons spilling over from Utah I guess.

What we need is Romney to get caught with a hooker!

[parocks]

just now looked at the crosstabs of the polls. Ron's "would vote for/would not vote for" (essentially favorables) were very good in bopth states. Essentially, second only to Mittens.

technically, I'm not sure those are "crosstabs".

I think, and I could be wrong, that "crosstabs" is where they look at subsets. How many 18-24's said "Ron Paul" compared to 65+.

They did say how many kids they talked to, and they did talk to a lot of kids. But they didn't give crosstabs there.

[Ronulus]

Mitt's really got a stranglehold on NH. We need to remedy that.

[bluesc]

Mitt's really got a stranglehold on NH. We need to remedy that.

Win Iowa. Momentum. We might be able to finish within 5 points of him if everything is done well.

[kylejack]

Not so fast. Romney is extremely popular in Nevada. Lots of mormons spilling over from Utah I guess.

What we need is Romney to get caught with a hooker!
Yeah, but particularly the fact that it is a caucus really helps us, I think.

The trouble with South Carolina is social conservatism especially w.r.t. gay issues, and the trouble with Florida is oooold people who are scared of losing benefits, and also Cuban ex-pats who hate Ron's position of open trade with Cuba.

[cornell]

Florida is the only state I view as a true lost cause. It's probably best to let others spend all of their money there.

I think Ron Paul has a solid chance at any of the other early states, although a lot of work certainly has to be done. We've already seen what his campaign and the grassroots can accomplish with regards to the recent polling in IA and NH and have no reason but to be optimistic for the future in the coming weeks.

[parocks]

Here is who Bloomberg talked to, and why we probably did so well.

iowa
under 25 - 9%
25-34 - 17%
65+ - 17%

nh
under 25 - 4%
25-34 - 13%
65+ - 19%

In Iowa, Bloomberg talked to more 18-34s than 65+s - the 18-34s are our people. So, we did well in the poll.
When the pollsters don't talk to our people, the 18-24s, we don't do well in the polls.



*******************

the insider advantage poll of NH from about a month ago
had Paul getting 23% of 18-29 and 1.8% of 65+
They talked to more than twice as many 65+ as 18-29.
The overall result was 11% for paul.
If they talked to as many 18-29s as 65+, we would've been at around 17%.
The same.
There really doesn't seem to be movement in the polls.

It all comes down to who votes.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_NH_1017.pdf
***************************

http://nhjournal.com/2011/10/14/poll-romney-rocking-cain-creeping-gingrich-gaining/
this NH poll with Ron Paul at 10%
had 7% 18-24
and 28% 65+

we would've gotten around 17% if they talked to as many young as old

********************************

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/NH_Poll%20Results_Questionnaire.pdf
this one had Ron Paul at 14%
had more kids
19% - 18-29
25% - 60+

***************************

We see, over and over, unless it's a very recent PPP poll, that the more kids they talk to, the better we do.

[trey4sports]

technically, I'm not sure those are "crosstabs".

I think, and I could be wrong, that "crosstabs" is where they look at subsets. How many 18-24's said "Ron Paul" compared to 65+.

They did say how many kids they talked to, and they did talk to a lot of kids. But they didn't give crosstabs there.


They have quite a bit of information in the PDF. They do break down support by age groups as well.

[xFiFtyOnE]

Here is who Bloomberg talked to, and why we probably did so well.

iowa
under 25 - 9%
25-34 - 17%
65+ - 17%

nh
under 25 - 4%
25-34 - 13%
65+ - 19%

In Iowa, Bloomberg talked to more 18-34s than 65+s - the 18-34s are our people. So, we did well in the poll.
When the pollsters don't talk to our people, the 18-24s, we don't do well in the polls.

Lucky for us the 65+ year olds only make up 13% of the U.S. population. Just gotta get the younger people to the polling booths. ;)

[parocks]

They have quite a bit of information in the PDF. They do break down support by age groups as well.

I've looked at the pdf. could you cut and paste what percentage of the kids support Ron Paul.

I saw where they said how many of each age demo, but they didn't say who each age demo voted for.

[parocks]

Lucky for us the 65+ year olds only make up 13% of the U.S. population. Just gotta get the younger people to the polling booths. ;)

Right, we have to get the young people to vote. That's basically it, right there.

[parocks]

They have quite a bit of information in the PDF. They do break down support by age groups as well.

http://www.businessweek.com/pdf/poll11-16-11.pdf

That's the one I'm looking at. There could be a different one. Is there a different one that you're looking at and what's the link?

[Todd]

Lucky for us the 65+ year olds only make up 13% of the U.S. population. Just gotta get the younger people to the polling booths. ;)

unfortunatley they make up a huge amount of voting public.

[eok321]

Lucky for us the 65+ year olds only make up 13% of the U.S. population. Just gotta get the younger people to the polling booths. ;)

So what we need is a snow storm of Epic Proportions. If there is a god he's a Ron Paul Supporter and will pull through for us in Iowa/NH

[klamath]

Right, we have to get the young people to vote. That's basically it, right there.
We need to get the young people out to vote in the primaries and then suspress the hell out of it in the general.

[LibertyEsq]

We need to get the young people out to vote in the primaries and then suspress the hell out of it in the general.

Oh please. Paul would probably do much better with young voters against Obama than you give him credit for

[Cinderella]

Oh please. Paul would probably do much better with young voters against Obama than you give him credit for

this is very true....the youth i work with is quoted to have referred to Ron as "gangsta" haha......alot of youth that follows hip hop knows that Prodigy from Mobb Deep and KRS-1 support Ron Paul....im optimistic about the young population

[trey4sports]

http://www.businessweek.com/pdf/poll11-16-11.pdf

That's the one I'm looking at. There could be a different one. Is there a different one that you're looking at and what's the link?


no, you're right. It doesn't list who each age group supports.

[parocks]

So what we need is a snow storm of Epic Proportions. If there is a god he's a Ron Paul Supporter and will pull through for us in Iowa/NH

No, not snow storms. Although they possibly could help, or hurt.

We need to help the campaign with their Get Out The Vote efforts, and we should, if possible, suppliment their efforts with our own grassroots efforts in areas where there are a lot of 18-34 year olds.

We need to literally move people to the caucuses and primaries.

I think it's a mistake to think that our supporters are more likely to vote in bad weather than old people.

[parocks]

We need to get the young people out to vote in the primaries and then suspress the hell out of it in the general.

We need to cross that bridge when we come to it.

[parocks]

********************************

heres a poll from 2010 - 1 year, 4 months ago. New Hampshire.
We were picked by 37% of 18-29 year olds.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2010/PPP_Release_NH_728.pdf

when the pollsters talk to a lot of them, we do well, when they don't, we don't

********************************

[sailingaway]

We need to get the young people out to vote in the primaries and then suspress the hell out of it in the general.

By the general there will be lots of media on the difference between the two and we'd BETTER be able to get out a comparison of records. I can't see Obama's youth being very gung ho for this election. Ron's on the other hand....

[danielboon]

he is doing well because people are fed up. the tide is turning soon the nation will be changed :)

[Keith and stuff]

Informative post, Keith, thanks. What is your assessment if Ron wins Iowa, and how that would effect the campaign in NH? Is there simply tepid support for Romney there based on familiarity, and a dismissal of Ron Paul with a "he can't win" mentality? Would voters flock to Ron Paul if they see him as a very serious contender?

I think I speak for a lot of people here in that I have no real experience with Mitt Romney supporters. LOL I have some rough understanding of them (moderate Republicans who pride themselves on practicality rather than thinking in terms of theoretical consistency or fundamentals), but I still don't understand what motivates them. :) Wouldn't they be excited by a candidate who is going to get rid of the capital gains tax, and ultimately the income tax?

Romney is by far the best known in NH and he is well liked (seen as someone that could win in NH against Obama.) He is seem as an intelligent, moderate that leans conservative. He has a history is executive experience and working with both parties (40% of voters in NH are undeclared.) He has also paid the NH GOP to support him.

Among the Tea Party folks (a minority of the NH GOP folks), he is near universally not liked. However, NH voters are among the best educated in the US and they will not vote for some they think is dumb, like Perry.

As has been pointed out, things sometimes flip flop in NH b/t a poll a couple months out and the final results.


Look throughout history what happens when someone wins Iowa. Their poll numbers jump overnight for NH.
Dean being ahead or Kerry by about the same amount that Romney is ahead of Paul now until Kerry wins Iowa is a good example.

Additionally, look at the last election, Obama had pulled ahead of Clinton and was expected to him. However, an event happened just before the election and she won. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/09/opinion/08dowd.html

NH voters are smart and since the over 40% of the voters that are undeclared are allowed to vote in the GOP Primary and since the Democratic Primary means little this year, it's possible that Democratic-leaning undeclared voters could rally around a candidate and try to tip the scales.

Paul really needs to do well in IA if he expects to win NH, and winning in NH still isn't the most likely outcome. If the media expects Paul to get 2nd in NH with 17% and he gets 2nd with 27%, that should be a huge national story. The story of getting 2nd and greatly beating expectations is huge. However, if the MSM is really trying to suppress Paul, they might not play up his great showing.

So to do well in NH, keep doing what is happening in NH, win IA and New Year's in NH ( http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?329302-New-Year%E2%80%99s-with-Ron-Paul-in-New-Hampshire-%28Jan.-2-2012-to-Jan.-11-2012%29 ) needs to be much better run and more successful than Operation Live Free or Die was last time around. I remember last time when some of the Operation Live Free or Die (out of state, inexperienced politically volunteers) folks were involved with Marching in downtowns in NH with Ron Paul signs and throwing a snowball at one of the most known news guys in the US. That's the type of stuff that costs a candidate points in NH.

[Keith and stuff]

********************************

heres a poll from 2010 - 1 year, 4 months ago. New Hampshire.
We were picked by 37% of 18-29 year olds.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2010/PPP_Release_NH_728.pdf

when the pollsters talk to a lot of them, we do well, when they don't, we don't

********************************

Thanks for looking into the polls and the various age groups. Your research should give us all caution, just like these recent polls give us hope.

We might be able to do this but it's about turning out our voters (and ever increasing that base.)

And at least for the IA poll, sex must be considered. We already know that males are more likely to vote for Ron Paul than females.

According to the poll,

Sex:
61% Male
39% Female

[IndianaPolitico]

In the words of a certain Governor, "Live free or die, victory or death... BRING IT!"

[SlowSki]

I'm so excited about these last two polls that came out. Plus, if you look at the poll data, a very small percentage of those polled were under the age of 25. This makes these numbers seem even better.