NYT's Nate Silver: Paul could score upsets in both Iowa and New Hampshire

[1836]

Nate Silver, an extremely astute observer of polling who maintains the excellent '538' blog for the usually inept New York Times, wrote an article in which he did an analysis of how candidates perform in early voting states relative to their national polling averages. His predictions are usually very, very solid, so we should take some note of what he says.

The article can be found here. (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/15/romneys-early-state-obstacle-course/?ref=politics)

Here is the trend for early state polling vs. national polling that Silver came up with:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/11/15/us/politics/fivethirtyeight-1115-romneyobstaclecourse1/fivethirtyeight-1115-romneyobstaclecourse1-blog480.png

Here is where Ron Paul is mentioned in the article:

One candidate whom we haven’t discussed very much but who could play a role here is Representative Ron Paul. He’s the only Republican candidate to have a positive State Strength Score in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Mr. Romney might prefer that Mr. Paul won Iowa rather than someone like Rick Perry who could resurrect more of a national campaign with a victory there. But the wild card of Mr. Paul winning Iowa, which is certainly not impossible, could open up the prospect of an upset in the New Hampshire as well.

Truly worth noting is how Iowa, if we are able to win it, really seems to "tee it up" for us in New Hampshire, where we also do better than our national average. This hasn't escaped Silver, obviously, as shown by this article.

But what it says, in relevance to our position in this nomination, is that although we might not have the strength in some of the later voting important states like Florida and South Carolina, our early strength sets us up for a powerful momentum rolling into the later schedule.

Again, we are the only candidate polling above our average in both New Hampshire and Iowa. Chew on the significance of that for a moment.

[sailingaway]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sE1huPYerp0

[SilentBull]

Excellent! If he beats Romney in New Hampshire I don't see how he doesn't take it all.

[Maximus]

I really think a win in Iowa gets all the people who say "I like Ron Paul but I don't think he can win" to get off the fence and realize "hey, he can win this thing!"

That would be a tsunami of support

[1836]

I really think a win in Iowa gets all the people who say "I like Ron Paul but I don't think he can win" to get off the fence and realize "hey, he can win this thing!"

That would be a tsunami of support

It's starting with this poll today!

[tremendoustie]

If he wins Iowa I can pretty much guarantee he'll do no worse than second here. And really, second, especially a close second to Romney in NH (romney's wheelhouse) would be a big win.

[sailingaway]

It's starting with this poll today!

This.

[trey4sports]

I really think a win in Iowa gets all the people who say "I like Ron Paul but I don't think he can win" to get off the fence and realize "hey, he can win this thing!"

That would be a tsunami of support


I agree. it's really a whole new ballgame.

[69360]

If he wins Iowa I can pretty much guarantee he'll do no worse than second here. And really, second, especially a close second to Romney in NH (romney's wheelhouse) would be a big win.

I'll go even further and say that I think 2nd is NH is a given at this point. Nobody should stop the hard work though.

[South Park Fan]

I concur with Silver's analysis. Iowa (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html) looks like a four-way tossup at this point, but given that Paul's advertising seems to be paying off, Cain is on a downward trajectory which isn't being helped by his gaffes, Gingrich is bound to have his personal history (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VaZFfQKWX54) revealed in the next six weeks, and Paul has an enthusiasm gap that can lift him an additional >3 points, I'd say Paul is in a good position to be the leading anti-Romney candidate and consequently win Iowa, albeit not one to be content with.

In New Hampshire (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html), Romney currently has ~40%, Paul has ~11%, Huntsman has ~6%, and the other conservative challengers have ~32%, leaving ~11% undecided. If Paul were to win Iowa, that would likely establish him as the leading anti-Romney candidate, which would give him a substantial portion of the conservative vote. Much as Romney would beg to differ, losing Iowa would be a minor setback for him, which would likely cost him a few points in the polls, possibly to Huntsman's gain. Since many of the undecideds are also anti-Romney voters, Paul would gain a significant amount of their support as well, leaving a situation where Paul would be in a good position to either upset Romney or come in a close second.

[Original_Intent]

For some reason I picture the scene at the end of the first Matrix movie, where Neo does his first "Superman thing". May Ron's "take-off" bode equally well for us...

[da32130]

But the wild card of Mr. Paul winning Iowa, which is certainly not impossible, could open up the prospect of an upset in the New Hampshire as well.
.

Where have I heard that before:
"He has a real shot at Iowa. If he wins Iowa he has about a 30% chance of winning the nomination. By winning Iowa his odds of winning New Hampshire go to between 20-50%. If he wins New Hampshire he may become an 80-90%+ favorite to win it all."
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?328197-How-Ron-Paul-Wins

[sailingaway]

Now he says it isn't impossible. After the Ames straw poll NS put up a projection showing Ron's likelihood of winning Iowa to be very strong. Remember, historically the person who takes first or second in the Ames straw poll wins the caucuses. Ron came in second by only 156 votes.

[sailingaway]

But the wild card of Mr. Paul winning Iowa, which is certainly not impossible, could open up the prospect of an upset in the New Hampshire as well.
.

Where have I heard that before:
"He has a real shot at Iowa. If he wins Iowa he has about a 30% chance of winning the nomination. By winning Iowa his odds of winning New Hampshire go to between 20-50%. If he wins New Hampshire he may become an 80-90%+ favorite to win it all."
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?328197-How-Ron-Paul-Wins

:p

[Aratus]

jon huntsman is starting to run ads here in massachusetts.
if he does this, skim 5 points from mitt romney in N.H---!!!

[GeorgiaAvenger]

This encourages me to call more.

[Badger Paul]

"Truly worth noting is how Iowa, if we are able to win it, really seems to "tee it up" for us in New Hampshire"

Paul is one of the few candidates who is set up to compete in Iowa and New Hampshire. A lot of Iowa winners fail in New Hampshire like Huckabee did.

[Gumba of Liberty]

If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire he needs to invest in a bulletproof vest and a stunt double.

[Xelaetaks]

If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire he needs to invest in a bulletproof vest and a stunt double.


This!!!! It will be amazing though. Ron Paul in the white house. I couldn't ask for a better president.