View Full Version : Newt Gingrich What's behind Gingrich's jump in the polls

11-15-2011, 01:58 AM

Got a comment in before the comments closed -

Media bias plain and simple. Newt will fall once the media digs out his past. How about a boost for Ron Paul ????? He's clearly one of the most intelligent candidates there is out there and his grassroots support is pretty damn enthusiastic.

November 14, 2011 05:38 pm at 5:38 pm |

It is true though. Ron Paul forums pretty much predicted Newts rise by the media lol he's bound to drop in the polls soon anyway once his past comes to surface.

11-15-2011, 02:23 AM
From the poll data on Real Politics which tracks a bunch of republican polls, Newt is consuming voters not just from Cain but from Romney as well, which I find very interesting.

Newt is a Washington insider, and appeals to the party establishment like none of the other candidates. His campaign was almost done for when his staff left him while he was vacationing in the Mediterranean. I believe at this point many of his supporters gave up on him and no longer decided he was viable, and thus became temporarily undecided and slowly began backing Romney, another insider. They also likely flirted with Cain as many did.

Republican polling waves seem to last 2 months from beginning to end. This applies to Perry and most likely Cain as well. Newt is consuming Cain & Romney, however, this surge should last 2 months beginning from November 1st about. This brings us to the beginning of January when Newt will be rapidly falling, if this previous cycle holds true for him. I believe this cycle will hold true so long as the media does their job like they did against Cain.

Sadly the biased news media holds Newt's key to the nomination, it's up to them whether he becomes the candidate or not... I think they will tear him apart because I believe they back Mitt Romney, since they kiss his butt constantly. However, they could easily overlook his checkered past as they did with Obama if they so decide. But let's hope they back Mitt. Mitt is the failed candidate of the party I believe, the person being shoved upon the voters that the media wants. His 20% are unenthusiastic, I believe as opposed to candidates like Newt or Cain... yet the enthusiasm for them quickly dwindles as their checkered pasts are revealed.

However, these candidates do not lose all of their support after they have their big run. This is the best thing ever for Ron Paul. Not all of Cain's supporters will leave him. When Newt begins declining in early January, this is when the Iowa caucus will be held. He will have consumed some of Romney's support, but Cain and Perry will be nipping away at Newt's heals still.

I think that recent Bloomberg poll sums it up quite well. The polls will likely show Ron in 4th place, but in actuality it's RP vs. Newt in Iowa at least. I think Mitt will have a terrible Iowa showing, hopefully that hurts him in New Hampshire. Who knows where it all leads but RP could definately take Iowa thanks to Newt becoming a viable candidate once more, since this knocks Mitt off his perch, and distributes votes more evenly among the field.