Is 'Iowa Electronic Markets' like Intrade?

[sailingaway]

from twitter:


tsnee Tom Snee
Gingrich at 28%, Paul at 30% probability of top 2 finish at #iacaucus on Iowa Electronic Markets. Romney has highest probability, at 87%.

[da32130]

yes

Only odds of top two finish. Not 1st.

about
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/WebEx/marketinfo_english.cfm?Market_ID=355

chart:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_IACaucus12.cfm

[tsai3904]

Yes, but more than likely, it is less liquid (fewer participants) than Intrade, which leads to less accurate results.

[sailingaway]

Yes, but more than likely, it is less liquid (fewer participants) than Intrade, which leads to less accurate results.

I definitely think it's inaccurate. I think it is going off of the GOP headcount polls not caucusers.

[trey4sports]

Is there anyway to tell how much money is in any particular Intrade market?

[Johncjackson]

I had an account there and had to use it for a college economics class, but it was so long ago I barely remember it.

[trey4sports]

Wouldn't this have to be foreign money? IIRC political speculation is illegal in the land of the free.