Iowa Poll

[sailingaway]

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/193395-polls-show-gingrich-rising-to-top-of-gop-field


In Iowa, a poll conducted by Republican firm the polling company shows Gingrich with 19 percent of the vote, essentially tied with Herman Cain's 20 percent. Mitt Romney rounds out the top 3 with 14 percent, while both Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul earn 10 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers.

the whole question is how they define caucus goers. Essentially, Gingrich is getting Cain's folks as they flee the sinking ship. Eventually Cain will be below Ron again, but it hasn't happened yet, and Bachmann being tied with Ron I don't like. I don't have the crosstabs yet, though.

[1836]

Very surprised that Bachmann would have gone to ten percent.

[tsai3904]

The poll wasn't conducted by PPP. The name of the firm is "the polling company".

[JamesButabi]

The big question. Can Ron Paul get his supporters to come out at a ratio of 2:1? Will students pull through on their break and drag their parents and friends along?

Phonebanking.....is SO important right now.

[Cowlesy]

We worry about making sure everyone knows about Ron's outstanding morals, personal conservatism and religious background, and yet, Newt Gingrich who lacks all of the aforementioned, surges in the polls.

This is a signal to me about the general voting population, and how much they actually care about their own values.

[NeoconTea]

We haven't started sending out Ron Paul propaganda yet :) Just wait!

[lucent]

'the polling company'?

[TexMac]

The more I call Iowans, the more I realize most people aren't even thinking about the caucuses or candidates. These polls reflect that, IMO. They'll say, "Oh, I don't know, I haven't picked one. Put me down for Romney, I guess." Seriously, I have come across no one who was a serious supporter of any candidate.

[1836]

The more I call Iowans, the more I realize most people aren't even thinking about the caucuses or candidates. These polls reflect that, IMO. They'll say, "Oh, I don't know, I haven't picked one. Put me down for Romney, I guess." Seriously, I have come across no one who was a serious supporter of any candidate.

Most people decide as the weeks close in. That's why we can still surge, but we have to get ready to close the deal.

I posted this a few days ago:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?329371-The-Most-Important-Part-of-the-Campaign-(How-Can-Ron-Paul-Close-the-Deal-)

[parocks]

The more I call Iowans, the more I realize most people aren't even thinking about the caucuses or candidates. These polls reflect that, IMO. They'll say, "Oh, I don't know, I haven't picked one. Put me down for Romney, I guess." Seriously, I have come across no one who was a serious supporter of any candidate.

I plan to make Phone from Home calls. But I expect that I'd get what you're getting. I think I'd rather talk to people who have a better idea what they're going to do.

[TexMac]

I plan to make Phone from Home calls. But I expect that I'd get what you're getting. I think I'd rather talk to people who have a better idea what they're going to do.Phone from Home isn't persuasion, just voter ID. I think persuasion calls come later. The ones I'm doing are a particular district in Iowa, hoping to ID RP supporters for the county chairman of the campaign.

[parocks]

Phone from Home isn't persuasion, just voter ID. I think persuasion calls come later. The ones I'm doing are a particular district in Iowa, hoping to ID RP supporters for the county chairman of the campaign.

Right, they're Voter ID calls. I guess what I meant to say was that I'd rather call Iowans, and take down their data, when there is data to take down besides "I don't know"

All of those undecideds are going to have to be called again.

I'd rather call when they aren't undecided.

[1836]

Phone from Home isn't persuasion, just voter ID. I think persuasion calls come later. The ones I'm doing are a particular district in Iowa, hoping to ID RP supporters for the county chairman of the campaign.

Persuasion calls probably will not be possible. There is really only enough time from now until Iowa and NH to identify and then turn out our own, already-identified supporters. That is enough to win Iowa and score second in NH if we do it well enough.

[bolidew]

The big question. Can Ron Paul get his supporters to come out at a ratio of 2:1? Will students pull through on their break and drag their parents and friends along?


2:1? don't count on it.
1.2:1 maybe.

Every candidate will try his/her best to GOTV in Iowa.

[sailingaway]

2:1? don't count on it.
1.2:1 maybe.

Every candidate will try his/her best to GOTV in Iowa.

Ron Paul supporters aren't 'every candidate's supporters' though.

[RDM]

I don't know who here has Twitter accounts, but Gingrich or his supporters are Twitter bombing left and right from military to college to economic issues. The one I've been monitoring is the Iowa Caucus Twitter page.

Here's the link: http://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23IACaucus