bobbyw24
11-14-2011, 10:59 AM
"For Ron Paul to run as an independent," Fox News Channel's Juan Williams wrote back on November 4, "could be the biggest, most consequential third party candidacy in American history. Yes, one that is even bigger than Ross Perot’s candidacy was in the 90s."
Persistent talk about a Ron Paul third party candidacy by some may be an attempt to sabotage Dr. Paul's GOP candidacy and enable establishment candidates who support banking bailouts and irresponsible foreign military intervention to win the nomination. Paul has stated he won't run an independent race for the presidency. But serious analysis of the 2012 presidential race indicates that a major independent challenge is all but certain this year without an anti-bailout candidate such as Paul winning the GOP nomination.
Indeed, a significant third party candidacy need not be headlined by Ron Paul. Plenty of third party candidate possibilities dot the political horizon, each of whom could draw 5-15 percent of the popular vote (or more) and a significant percentage of conservative and independent voters. More on those possible candidates later. But first, let's outline a few basic facts about the 2012 presidential election.
Electoral Fact #1: Obama can't win 50 percent of the vote in 2012.
Presidents can't spend a dime under the U.S. Constitution, but they inevitably get the blame or credit for the economy at the polls. Although only Congress can spend money under the U.S. Constitution, Obama mostly got his way with Congress during the financial crisis. Obama backed the Bush TARP bailout that Congress passed just before he took office. While in office, Congress passed his "Stimulus" bill, "Cash for Clunkers," Dodd-Frank financial regulatory program, and his health care overhaul.
As Presidents get credit or blame for the economy, 2012 will be a severe case of blame. With an unemployment rate hovering at about nine percent for the third year in a row, and no prospects for a quick recovery, Americans are not going to judge themselves better off than four years ago. Obama recognized this after his election. "I will be held accountable. I've got four years," Obama told NBC's Today show February 2, 2009. "If I don't have this done in three years, then there's going to be a one-term proposition."
Even with a moderate recovery, the unemployment rate will be higher when he leaves office than when he took office. The establishment has known for a year now that this will not be a year for Democrats, so they are betting their campaign donations on candidates who they believe will be the winners. Goldman Sachs employees, who donated to Democrats by a more than three-to-one margin in 2008, have gradually switched parties over the past four years. In the 2012 cycle thus far, Goldman Sachs employee donations have weighed in favor of Republicans by a nearly three-to-one ratio.
Obama's chief weakness is the economy, but he has another key weakness that a presidential opponent will exploit, whether it be a Republican or third party candidate: He was the choice of pro-bailout "crony capitalists" in 2008, and is still the top Democratic choice of crony capitalists. Goldman Sachs employees donated more than $1 million to Obama's campaign in the 2008 cycle, more than to any other candidate. Obama remains the top Democratic recipient this time around too, winning more than $50,000 from Goldman Sachs employees. It's as a reaction to Goldman Sachs-style bailouts, i.e., "crony capitalists," that both the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street are arrayed.
more
http://thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/9769-ron-pauls-real-electability-stopping-the-third-party-threat
Persistent talk about a Ron Paul third party candidacy by some may be an attempt to sabotage Dr. Paul's GOP candidacy and enable establishment candidates who support banking bailouts and irresponsible foreign military intervention to win the nomination. Paul has stated he won't run an independent race for the presidency. But serious analysis of the 2012 presidential race indicates that a major independent challenge is all but certain this year without an anti-bailout candidate such as Paul winning the GOP nomination.
Indeed, a significant third party candidacy need not be headlined by Ron Paul. Plenty of third party candidate possibilities dot the political horizon, each of whom could draw 5-15 percent of the popular vote (or more) and a significant percentage of conservative and independent voters. More on those possible candidates later. But first, let's outline a few basic facts about the 2012 presidential election.
Electoral Fact #1: Obama can't win 50 percent of the vote in 2012.
Presidents can't spend a dime under the U.S. Constitution, but they inevitably get the blame or credit for the economy at the polls. Although only Congress can spend money under the U.S. Constitution, Obama mostly got his way with Congress during the financial crisis. Obama backed the Bush TARP bailout that Congress passed just before he took office. While in office, Congress passed his "Stimulus" bill, "Cash for Clunkers," Dodd-Frank financial regulatory program, and his health care overhaul.
As Presidents get credit or blame for the economy, 2012 will be a severe case of blame. With an unemployment rate hovering at about nine percent for the third year in a row, and no prospects for a quick recovery, Americans are not going to judge themselves better off than four years ago. Obama recognized this after his election. "I will be held accountable. I've got four years," Obama told NBC's Today show February 2, 2009. "If I don't have this done in three years, then there's going to be a one-term proposition."
Even with a moderate recovery, the unemployment rate will be higher when he leaves office than when he took office. The establishment has known for a year now that this will not be a year for Democrats, so they are betting their campaign donations on candidates who they believe will be the winners. Goldman Sachs employees, who donated to Democrats by a more than three-to-one margin in 2008, have gradually switched parties over the past four years. In the 2012 cycle thus far, Goldman Sachs employee donations have weighed in favor of Republicans by a nearly three-to-one ratio.
Obama's chief weakness is the economy, but he has another key weakness that a presidential opponent will exploit, whether it be a Republican or third party candidate: He was the choice of pro-bailout "crony capitalists" in 2008, and is still the top Democratic choice of crony capitalists. Goldman Sachs employees donated more than $1 million to Obama's campaign in the 2008 cycle, more than to any other candidate. Obama remains the top Democratic recipient this time around too, winning more than $50,000 from Goldman Sachs employees. It's as a reaction to Goldman Sachs-style bailouts, i.e., "crony capitalists," that both the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street are arrayed.
more
http://thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/9769-ron-pauls-real-electability-stopping-the-third-party-threat