New POLITICO Poll: Ron Paul is 2nd choice of about 1/5 of Herman Cain supporters

[1836]

The poll linked here. (http://www.politico.com/static/PPM187_bg45.html)
Poll was taken Nov. 6-9, BEFORE Rick Perry's implosion in Wednesday night's debate. Keep that in mind.

First choice:
27% Herman Cain
25% Mitt Romney
14% Rick Perry
14% Newt Gingrich
5% Ron Paul
2% Michele Bachmann
2% Rick Santorum
0% Jon Huntsman
0% Gary Johnson

Second choice:
20% Mitt Romney
20% Newt Gingrich
16% Herman Cain
13% Rick Perry
8% Ron Paul
6% Michele Bachmann
4% Rick Santorum
3% Jon Huntsman
0% Gary Johnson

Unfortunately, the super-detailed crosstabs on the second-choice aspects are not in that poll (they usually never are, unfortunately). However, from the POLITICO article about the poll itself (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/68273.html)


Asked who they would support if Cain was not in the race, Cain supporters broke evenly for Romney and Newt Gingrich. Each saw a 7 percent overall increase if Cain was not an option. The two Texans in the race also got a boost: Rep. Ron Paul by 5 percent, and Perry by 3 percent.

In other words, if Cain were to hypothetically drop out today, of his 27% of primary voters, Ron Paul would get 5%, or nearly one-fifth of his supporters. Only Newt and Romney get more.

Under that scenario, Ron Paul would get 10% in the poll.

The significance of this is that we know that Cain has some marginal supporters who may be easily swayed to our side, enough to where – by Politico's poll –*our support could double. I'm not sure if that's a fair assessment, because I think Politico's numbers are a bit low as is their sample. Nonetheless, we can anticipate that if Cain falls further, a great big door of opportunity opens for us.

[bluesc]

That 5% that would come back are the same 5% that moved to Cain from Ron. It's only natural that Ron is their 2nd choice. In the last poll by Politico, Ron was at 10%.

[1836]

That 5% that would come back are the same 5% that moved to Cain from Ron. It's only natural that Ron is their 2nd choice. In the last poll by Politico, Ron was at 10%.

Possibly, but I do not think that the decline could be explained only by Cain's rise. One must consider the margin of error between two polls of the same method.

I would hazard an educated guess that between where Perry, Cain, and Gingrich presently stand, Ron Paul actually picks up in the range of 11-12% total. Now the question is, how much and how far will those candidates fall.

The reason why Ron's true "second choice" figure would be higher is that, in the absence of those three candidates, a much larger number of people would go to Ron Paul than 8%. If you even take one out (let's say, Perry) and that candidate becomes irrelevant, their second choice pick number fall, and those second choicers go to someone else among dwindled alternatives.

[bolidew]

Even we add all 2nd choice, Ron only have 13% support, that's not nearly enough.
We have to get undecided votes before others.

[1836]

Even we add all 2nd choice, Ron only have 13% support, that's not nearly enough.
We have to get undecided votes before others.

Definitely an important element.