Weird politico article on new poll

[sailingaway]

I infer Ron is in 4th but they don't give his number, but they say some of the candidates didn't even register, and he wasn't one. They also say if Cain drops out (or, one assumes, becomes a nonfactor) Ron gets 5 of his points, and I wonder where that would put him in the ranking? Can't tell from what they say. It says Cain is first in total but dropped really fast within the days of the polling cycle so it sounds like if that progression continued he could be pretty low by now. So I don't know how predictive it is, but it is interesting, if only for Cain cratering. If Cain is cratering again, I expect Ron to go up.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/68273.html

[svobody]

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM187_bg45.html

This is the poll. We have 5%. Sample size of 1,000. Not too hot.

[sailingaway]

Rotten, but if Cain falls out, it is 10 for Ron. I don't know what we had in this poll before to know if we went up or down.

I note from your link that they screen by whether a person considers themselves 'closer to a Democrat or a Republican' and that seems weird if they are just trying to find out what primary they will vote in. Swing independents from Obama to Paul might not necessarily consider themselves 'closer to a Republican'.

[bluesc]

Rick Perry at 14%? Ron at 5%? The last one from them had Ron at 10%. That is a horrible poll.

[svobody]

We can make excuses, but our RCP average is plummeting. This poll will put us down pretty close to 8% I think.

[sailingaway]

OK, I could have been reading the tabs wrong, it refers back strangely, but I figured it out. Essentially if you say you are independent temperamentally or Dem temperamentally, regardless of how you will vote this time, they don't poll you on the presidential candidates.

[sailingaway]

We can make excuses, but our RCP average is plummeting. This poll will put us down pretty close to 8% I think.

I'm not making excuses, I am trying to figure out what is going on. I know it impacts the RCP but if they are tailoring those polled to cut out those Ron polls well with I look at it differently than if they poll all who intend to vote in the GOP primary despite psychological loyalty screening factors.

[bluesc]

Last time did they only poll those who considered themselves GOP AND had voted in the 2008 GOP primary?

That's the only problem. They ignore independents that aren't leaning GOP. They do include people that didn't vote in '08 though. Yes, it was conducted the same way.

[sailingaway]

Rick Perry at 14%? Ron at 5%? The last one from them had Ron at 10%. That is a horrible poll.

It looks like their last one had him at 8. Still not good, but within the margin of error, clearly. Where do you see the 10? I look at the prior poll and see 8. Also the new one says if Cain is gone (or a non factor, presumably) Ron picks up 5 points. I'm thinking the self determined GOP who went from Ron to Cain were soft support for both and would come back, as part of that 5.