The key polls for Iowa... None other matter right now...

[Taco John]

The debate will be limited to those candidates who have satisfied the following criteria:


1. Announced a formal campaign for President: and

2. Filed the necessary paperwork with the Federal Election Commission; and

3. Met all U.S. constitutional requirements; and

4. Garnered at least 5% of the national electorate as determined by an average of the most recent national telephone polls of registered voters conducted by non-partisan public opinion polling organizations leading up to the registration deadline as determined by Fox News Channel and the Republican Party of Iowa or garnered an average of at least 5% in the most recent polls of Iowa voters conducted by the American Research Group and the Des Moines Register.
These are the key polls:

Fox News National Poll:

Ron Paul polled at 1%

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/102507_politics_release_web.pdf


Iowa Polls:

Ron Paul polled at 4% in the last Des Moines Register poll
Ron Paul polled at 1% in the last ARG Poll

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071007/NEWS09/71005048/-1/caucus

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iarep8-711.html


Apparently there's another round of polling that will decide it. I don't know when it is though...

[kevman657]

We need to get some meet up members there to go door to door in some of the neighborhoods. How many people are in there meet up group?

[MsDoodahs]

John, are you in Iowa?

(sorry for not knowing - there's so many of us!)

[ARealConservative]

trying to get 5% nationally in a Fox administered poll might be impossible.

And considering the Iowa caucus is right around the corner, our goal should be to completely crush the 5% Des Moines Register poll. Otherwise the caucus will be a poor showing anyway.

So in the end - this news shouldn't really effect things - we need to be hammering Iowa as it is.

[Taco John]

No, I'm in Washington State. A buddy of mine from Iowa forwarded me the email that was sent by the Iowa Republicans. He was gloating, saying that Ron Paul would be excluded from it. He's a Rudy supporter.

This is real. They are doing this on purpose. It's a carefully planned strategy to exclude Dr. Paul from the event leading into the primaries.

[alexlcameron]

This is insane, I cannot foresee them excluding them. He is the only candidate with any real momentum

[Taco John]

The debate will be limited to those candidates who have satisfied the following criteria:


1. Announced a formal campaign for President: and

2. Filed the necessary paperwork with the Federal Election Commission; and

3. Met all U.S. constitutional requirements; and

4. Garnered at least 5% of the national electorate as determined by an average of the most recent national telephone polls of registered voters conducted by non-partisan public opinion polling organizations leading up to the registration deadline as determined by Fox News Channel and the Republican Party of Iowa or garnered an average of at least 5% in the most recent polls of Iowa voters conducted by the American Research Group and the Des Moines Register.

[Paulite5112007]

The debate will be limited to those candidates who have satisfied the following criteria:


1. Announced a formal campaign for President: and

2. Filed the necessary paperwork with the Federal Election Commission; and

3. Met all U.S. constitutional requirements; and

4. Garnered at least 5% of the national electorate as determined by an average of the most recent national telephone polls of registered voters conducted by non-partisan public opinion polling organizations leading up to the registration deadline as determined by Fox News Channel and the Republican Party of Iowa or garnered an average of at least 5% in the most recent polls of Iowa voters conducted by the American Research Group and the Des Moines Register.
These are the key polls:

Fox News National Poll:

Ron Paul polled at 1%

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/102507_politics_release_web.pdf


Iowa Polls:

Ron Paul polled at 4% in the last Des Moines Register poll
Ron Paul polled at 1% in the last ARG Poll

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071007/NEWS09/71005048/-1/caucus

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iarep8-711.html


Apparently there's another round of polling that will decide it. I don't know when it is though...


So is it all candidates who show at least 5% in ANY poll get invited or does FOX get to pick which poll is used? Is it an average of all three polls or an average of one poll? The Des Moines Register seems likely to show RP with over 5% considering he went from 0 to 4% and high pollers went down due to Thompsons support. I doubt Thompson has raised his support past 18% and dont feel any of the other candidates will have rased much more than a few points. I predict Ron Paul will come in at 9% if the run the poll in early December.

Anyone know when those polls will be polling next?

[Paulite5112007]

4. Garnered at least 5% of the national electorate as determined by an average of the most recent national telephone polls of registered voters conducted by non-partisan public opinion polling organizations leading up to the registration deadline as determined by Fox News Channel and the Republican Party of Iowa or garnered an average of at least 5% in the most recent polls of Iowa voters conducted by the American Research Group and the Des Moines Register.

So the first part is not going to happen with FOX at the control - we are left to 'or' get at least 5% in TWO polls?

[freelance]

or garnered an average of at least 5% in the most recent polls of Iowa voters conducted by the American Research Group and the Des Moines Register

Operative word = most recent, as in past tense.

That means that our only hope now is


Garnered at least 5% of the national electorate as determined by an average of the most recent national telephone polls of registered voters conducted by non-partisan public opinion polling organizations leading up to the registration deadline as determined by Fox News Channel and the Republican Party of Iowa

Well hell, the operative words here are: as determined by Fox News Channel and the GOP.

As in, FORGET IT!