Ron Paul sees big jump on Intrade

[roughridersten]

Ron Paul's chance of getting the Republican nomination had been stagnated between 2-3% for weeks. Starting yesterday, Ron Paul's chance has risen sharply on strong trading volume and now sits at 5.6%. He has now leapfrogged Cain for getting the nomination. :cool:

My guess is that the first surge corresponds with the information about three way poll between Obama, Romney, and Paul.

During the last two days, Romney and Perry have seen their numbers drop, while Gingrich and Cain have held steady.

http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/6742/chart13208239077082199.png (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/26/chart13208239077082199.png/)

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=656777

Meanwhile, Paul is now third behind Obama and Romney to win the general election (ahead of Perry and Gingrich).

[roughridersten]

And now I see the other thread. Sorry for the repost.

[sailingaway]

I think it was the three way poll, as well.

Let's put it this way. Romney may get the nomination with the establishment bias and inertia on his side, but if he LEFT the GOP and ran third party, he wouldn't get anything like the 18% the MSNBC poll gave Ron in that scenario. If Ron gets the nomination, he will win the general, imho.

[R3volutionJedi]

If Ron gets the nomination, he will win the general, imho.

YEA

[rp08orbust]

I think it was the three way poll, as well.

Why would a poll showing Ron Paul doing well as an independent (which he has essentially ruled out) cause people to bet on him winning the Republican nomination?

I'm hoping for something bigger, like maybe PPP sitting on a new NH poll showing Ron surging there or something.

[mwkaufman]

Taking chance at presidency divided by chance at nomination on Intrade, you can see how various candidates would do in the general election according to Intrade.

74% Paul
55% Huntsman
49% Romney
48% Cain
48% Gingrich
34% Perry

Surprised Cain and Gingrich do so well relative to Romney.

[sailingaway]

Why would a poll showing Ron Paul doing well as an independent (which he has essentially ruled out) cause people to bet on him winning the Republican nomination?

I'm hoping for something bigger, like maybe PPP sitting on a new NH poll showing Ron surging there or something.

Because people DON'T vote for third party and the margins are usually 3% or 4%, not 18%. That was a VERY high number for such things. And it is PERSONAL power to Ron, nontransferable.

[69360]

I think it was the three way poll, as well.

Let's put it this way. Romney may get the nomination with the establishment bias and inertia on his side, but if he LEFT the GOP and ran third party, he wouldn't get anything like the 18% the MSNBC poll gave Ron in that scenario. If Ron gets the nomination, he will win the general, imho.

And if he doesn't get the nomination, we get Obama again.

Why can't the GOP see that? They can't win without us. There is no chance in hell of it.

[trey4sports]

Why would a poll showing Ron Paul doing well as an independent (which he has essentially ruled out) cause people to bet on him winning the Republican nomination?

I'm hoping for something bigger, like maybe PPP sitting on a new NH poll showing Ron surging there or something.

I think you're overestimating the collective knowledge of the Intrade market.

[1836]

I think you're overestimating the collective knowledge of the Intrade market.

Markets are incredible and Intrade has, time and time again, proven its worth in predicting outcomes with a surprising degree of accuracy!

I would say our rising on Intrade in a significant way is far more important than some poll showing us up several points. Not because people notice it, but because we know what it means.

[69360]

Because people DON'T vote for third party and the margins are usually 3% or 4%, not 18%. That was a VERY high number for such things. And it is PERSONAL power to Ron, nontransferable.

They voted for Perot. Ron could be more popular that Perot. If the euro fails and we bang the debt ceiling causing another congressional impasse, Ron's chances 3rd party skyrocket. That could happen simultaneously actually. I know we aren't supposed to talk about it, but it's true.

[rp08orbust]

I think you're overestimating the collective knowledge of the Intrade market.

I was pretty impressed with it leading up to the Ames straw poll.

[InTradePro]

I think you're overestimating the collective knowledge of the Intrade market.

Hey! Some of us have feelings you know :p

[trey4sports]

I was pretty impressed with it leading up to the Ames straw poll.

as was I. The day OF the Ames Straw Poll I lost a lot of confidence in Intrade. The market ended up shifting to about 80/15 Bachmann over Paul and yet they were only separated by 150 votes out of of 17,000 total. The market seemed pretty superficial. It basically correlated with how the media was calling the straw poll.

[Elwar]

If I had money I would bet against Ron Paul winning with every penny.

If he wins, oh well...I lose all of my money but I have a bright future ahead of me with much more opportunity to make money.

If he loses...that sucks...we are all screwed, but at least I have a few more percent in cash that I can use to get the hell out of the U.S.

[sailingaway]

They voted for Perot. Ron could be more popular that Perot. If the euro fails and we bang the debt ceiling causing another congressional impasse, Ron's chances 3rd party skyrocket. That could happen simultaneously actually. I know we aren't supposed to talk about it, but it's true.

Yeah, but Perot was the reason the exParty chairs took over the debates and limited who could get in. They never wanted another.

[69360]

Yeah, but Perot was the reason the exParty chairs took over the debates and limited who could get in. They never wanted another.

Wonder what they would set the polling requirement for a 3rd party candidate at?

[rp08orbust]

Wonder what they would set the polling requirement for a 3rd party candidate at?

19%

[InTradePro]

Wonder what they would set the polling requirement for a 3rd party candidate at?

15%, but you can understand it would be a crocked poll, so likely 25% of real voters.

[Lovecraftian4Paul]

Third party Presidential debate requirements have been set at 15% in three national polls since at least 2000. Lots of room for manipulation, but if anyone could hit that threshold, it would be Ron Paul.

[sailingaway]

Wonder what they would set the polling requirement for a 3rd party candidate at?

15% but they can just use methodologies specifically designed (within 'acceptable parameters') to underestimate his support. even so, they don't want him running third party.

But he's not going to anyhow. That he has this level of support even AGAINST the nominee does make them take him more seriously, though.

[roughridersten]

I think I have more respect for Intrade than some here. In my opinion, it is much less manipulable that some "random sample" poll. The fact is, with Intrade, if you disagree with a prediction, you can put your money where your mouth is. Obviously it isn't perfect, and it isn't always right. But the idea is that if someone has insider info, they are likely to use self interest to make money off that info. In doing so, they move the market in the correct direction, and we all see this as an indication that something will happen. Back in the day they had markets for the next major terrorist attack. I believe the government made them take it down (probably out of fear it would be more accurate than them).

I think the 3 way poll means he is more likely to win the nomination because eventually the republicans will come to their senses (or at least there is a greater likelihood that they will).

[Fredom101]

Intrade is much more important than many realize. It was HIGHLY accurate in 08. I remember, I didn't buy into it because they had Paul in 5th with really huge odds to win it. But, it turned out to be accurate, just like the polls that I thought were BS.

So, I would expect to see RP pick up a bit in the polls. Will the MSM cover it? HELL no!

[Fredom101]

15% but they can just use methodologies specifically designed (within 'acceptable parameters') to underestimate his support. even so, they don't want him running third party.

But he's not going to anyhow. That he has this level of support even AGAINST the nominee does make them take him more seriously, though.

IF he's clearly not going to win say after Super Tuesday, it would be ridiculous for him to NOT run independent. At that point, who cares how many rules are stacked against independents?

[Liberty74]

IF he's clearly not going to win say after Super Tuesday, it would be ridiculous for him to NOT run independent. At that point, who cares how many rules are stacked against independents?

I emailed Paul begging him to run as an Independent before he announced to run as a Republican. RP is simply a different breed than all the scumbag fake conservatives running like Romney, Gingrich, Perry, etc. RP is the real deal and with the economic situation and people in general being anti-establishment and anti-status quo, what better way for RP to run? I can say I was ignored...

But I agree with you, if there is nothing going our way after Super Tuesday, revamp and launch RP as the Independent. Don't think for one second he has not thought about it people. If RP doesn't, someone else WILL like Trump, Palin or god knows who will seek the Independent ticket.

18% is a good starting point...

[TwoJ]

Looks like it went back down some today :\

[PastaRocket848]

IF he's clearly not going to win say after Super Tuesday, it would be ridiculous for him to NOT run independent. At that point, who cares how many rules are stacked against independents?

if he waits until super tuesday he will have already been subject to sore loser laws in the states that he contested which have them. he'd be much better off to make an assessment after iowa/nh. if we're not moving up by then, we're not going to.