PPP Poll - Ohio General Election

[tsai3904]

Ohio (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/11/obama-up-big-in-ohio.html)
11/4 - 11/6
1,022 likely voters
+/-3.1%

Results in parenthesis are from the last Ohio (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/10/obama-struggling-in-ohio.html) poll conducted between 10/13 - 10/16.

General Election Matchups:

Obama 50% (46%)
Romney 41% (46%)



Obama 50% (48%)
Cain 39% (45%)



Obama 51% (51%)
Gingrich 38% (40%)



Obama 50% (48%)
Paul 36% (40%)



Obama 51% (49%)
Bachmann 37% (40%)



Obama 53% (50%)
Perry 36% (41%)


Among Independents:

Paul 44% (50%)
Obama 38% (37%)



Romney 45% (46%)
Obama 39% (35%)



Gingrich 42% (41%)
Obama 41% (44%)



Obama 44% (36%)
Cain 43% (52%)



Obama 42% (40%)
Perry 41% (45%)



Obama 43% (44%)
Bachmann 39% (39%)


Among 18 to 29:

Obama 65% (57%)
Romney 30% (38%)



Obama 63% (55%)
Cain 25% (43%)



Obama 63% (67%)
Gingrich 25% (29%)



Obama 63% (55%)
Bachmann 17% (33%)



Obama 67% (55%)
Paul 13% (38%)



Obama 70% (64%)
Perry 13% (33%)


Ron Paul Crosstabs:

18 to 29:

Obama 67% (55%)
Paul 13% (38%)

30 to 45:

Obama 46% (42%)
Paul 37% (47%)

46 to 65:

Obama 48% (49%)
Paul 40% (38%)

Older than 65:

Obama 51% (47%)
Paul 35% (38%)

Man:

Paul 44% (49%)
Obama 42% (41%)

Woman:

Obama 57% (54%)
Paul 28% (32%)

[D.A.S.]

Ohio (or, as Ron would say, Ohaya) is really cheering Obama, looks like.

Here's what is perplexing:

18 to 29:

Obama 67% (55%)
Paul 13% (38%)


Is that the student loans business? In good news, Paul has held on OK with 46+ group, the ones who turn out, but the reversal with 30-45 and the plummet with 18-29 doesn't make a whole lotta sense.

Any ideas on what's driving this? All republicans are down significantly from Obama, but why is Paul in that category as well?

[braane]

No 18 year olds are enthusiastic about Obama, or most things politics at all really. Ron Paul has the most enthusiastic support I have ever seen among this group at my college's campus. The cross tabs don't make a whole lot of sense to me.

[wstrucke]

All republicans are down significantly from Obama, but why is Paul in that category as well?

because they are uninformed

[D.A.S.]

No 18 year olds are enthusiastic about Obama, or most things politics at all really. Ron Paul has the most enthusiastic support I have ever seen among this group at my college's campus. The cross tabs don't make a whole lot of sense to me.

Well, this poll clearly shows young people going for Obama over ANY republican candidate, and Paul's favorability ratings are in the toilet particularly with the Ohio youth, although I have to note that a HUGE margin of people are undecided in these polls (20-30% in some categories... Paul's favorability rating with the youth has something like 50% undecidedl, if I recall correctly).

They polled 1,022 likely voters (error +/- 3%), which by age comes out as:


18-29: 82
30-45: 266
46-65: 409
65+: 265


It so happens that we do the best with 46-65 and 65+ group in these polls, otherwise our numbers would be even lower. Hopefully, they didn't tap a whole lot of youths who are pro-Paul and will turn out on election day, so we may be in for a surprise.

From studying the crosstabs, it's also interesting to note that Cain is pretty favorable with the 18-29 block and split with 30-45 block, while the majority of 46+ view him unfavorably. Also, those who labeled themselves Somewhat Conservative or Very Conservative showed the largest preference for Cain over any other candidate, which puzzles me.

I guess for not running any ads or doing any outreach at all in Ohio, those poll numbers aren't bad. Our national name recognition needs work because the media has done all they could to associate negative spin with Ron Paul. It seems to be working. A lot of people will need to be re-educated and reached out to.

[Keith and stuff]

Ohio (or, as Ron would say, Ohaya) is really cheering Obama, looks like.

Here's what is perplexing:

18 to 29:

Obama 67% (55%)
Paul 13% (38%)


Is that the student loans business? All republicans are down significantly from Obama, but why is Paul in that category as well?

It certainly is. Obama made big news recently by giving a ton of government help on student loans. The media played a story about Paul wanting to end student loans recently. I was talking to a lady in NH yesterday and she told her friend about Ron Paul. He friend looked up Paul online and agreed with him on almost everything but told the lady that she cannot vote for Paul because he wants to end student loans. This is one of the largest issues for college students (far bigger than drugs or wars) and the media is really trying to damage Paul. At least for now, it's working.

[blakjak]

Ohio (or, as Ron would say, Ohaya) is really cheering Obama, looks like.

Here's what is perplexing:

18 to 29:

Obama 67% (55%)
Paul 13% (38%)


Is that the student loans business? In good news, Paul has held on OK with 46+ group, the ones who turn out, but the reversal with 30-45 and the plummet with 18-29 doesn't make a whole lotta sense.

Any ideas on what's driving this? All republicans are down significantly from Obama, but why is Paul in that category as well?

There is no drop. Democrats have always dominated the youth vote. The promising Ron Paul numbers we usually see with the youth vote are when just the likely Republican voters are polled - that's where Paul dominates.

[parocks]

I think that PPP is flat out lying about Paul and 18-29.

I looked closely at the Maine PPP - and they seemed to switch Cain's numbers and Paul's numbers there.

I do not believe for a second that Paul's favorability is 9% with 18-29.

Whether or not student loans matter, there's no way that every 18-29 year old who is barely paying attention would have gotten the memo about that
and changed their favorability about Paul. Nope.

The student loan thing was not a big story.

PPP is lying.





Ohio (or, as Ron would say, Ohaya) is really cheering Obama, looks like.

Here's what is perplexing:

18 to 29:

Obama 67% (55%)
Paul 13% (38%)


Is that the student loans business? In good news, Paul has held on OK with 46+ group, the ones who turn out, but the reversal with 30-45 and the plummet with 18-29 doesn't make a whole lotta sense.

Any ideas on what's driving this? All republicans are down significantly from Obama, but why is Paul in that category as well?

[tsai3904]

I think that PPP is flat out lying about Paul and 18-29.

The 18-29 group consists of only 82 people sampled. That is a very small sample and will have a significant margin of error.

[parocks]

The 18-29 group consists of only 82 people sampled. That is a very small sample and will have a significant margin of error.

Yes, or they could be lying. I think they're lying.

I think that PPP started lying in Maine, and they're continuing to do so. Nothing happened (student loans just were not a big story) to take Paul from where he was to

9% favorable
39% unfav
50% not sure

just don't believe it. whatever margin of error, this is way outside of it. I think they fudged the Ron Paul favorables and the head to head.

In Maine, they switched Cain and Paul with 18-29s with the head to head.

Here, I think they just made it up.

These results don't look as "fishy" as the Maine results though. They're getting smart enough to know that they can't change one, and leave the other alone.

This is where Ron Paul was October 18 in Ohio
with 18-29

Oct 18
fav 36
unfav 40
not sure 24

I do not believe that Ron Paul's favorability with 18-29 went from 36% to 9% in 3 weeks, and I do not believe that is anywhere near the margin of error, even with a small sample.

[parocks]

Yes DAS, going from 38% to 13% in 3 weeks, without any news story, is perplexing.

PPP is lying.


Ohio (or, as Ron would say, Ohaya) is really cheering Obama, looks like.

Here's what is perplexing:

18 to 29:

Obama 67% (55%)
Paul 13% (38%)


Is that the student loans business? In good news, Paul has held on OK with 46+ group, the ones who turn out, but the reversal with 30-45 and the plummet with 18-29 doesn't make a whole lotta sense.

Any ideas on what's driving this? All republicans are down significantly from Obama, but why is Paul in that category as well?

[D.A.S.]

Yes DAS, going from 38% to 13% in 3 weeks, without any news story, is perplexing.

PPP is lying.

I'd be less inclined to say that a polling company would outright lie, but I don't know how polling works in practicality. I could see that by biasing the demographic polled (choosing more rural vs urban area, college youth vs rural youth, etc), poll results could certainly move.

Here's some comfort in the numbers:

This poll sampled 82 people in the 18-29 category. If Paul got 13%, that's 11 people who voted for him. Back when Paul got 38% in this poll, assuming the number of 18-29s polled was the same, that's 31 people that voted for him -- the difference of 20 youngsters.

Do they poll only one set of people per poll, or do they poll several independent sets and then average them?

[parocks]

I'd be less inclined to say that a polling company would outright lie, but I don't know how polling works in practicality. I could see that by biasing the demographic polled (choosing more rural vs urban area, college youth vs rural youth, etc), poll results could certainly move.

Here's some comfort in the numbers:

This poll sampled 82 people in the 18-29 category. If Paul got 13%, that's 11 people who voted for him. Back when Paul got 38% in this poll, assuming the number of 18-29s polled was the same, that's 31 people that voted for him -- the difference of 20 youngsters.

Do they poll only one set of people per poll, or do they poll several independent sets and then average them?

I don't know about who they're talking to. I would guess different people each time.

Typically pollsters don't lie. But what's stopping them? Keep an eye out for that.

[V3n]

Don't be discouraged. Ohio is insignificant in the Primary - only 1 state has their primary later than Ohio! Ron Paul will have the Primary wrapped up - then we ride the landslide wave for the General!