PPP Latest Ohio, Iowa & Mississippi Polls

[bobbyw24]

Ron Paul continues to struggle in the South

Cain leads in Ohio with 34% to 20% for Newt Gingrich, 19% for Mitt Romney, 5% each for Ron Paul and Rick Perry, 4% for Michele Bachmann, 2% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% each for Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum. These numbers are particularly notable because PPP polled in Ohio just 3 weeks ago- Cain's 34% now is the exact same share he had then, with Romney standing steady and Gingrich up 5 points. At least in that state Cain hadn't lost any support at all as of the weekend.

In Iowa Senate District 18, where a special election today will determine control of the Iowa State Senate, Cain leads as well with 25% to 16% for Gingrich and Romney, 9% for Paul, 7% for Perry, 6% for Bachmann, 3% for Huntsman and Santorum, and 1% for Johnson.

And in Mississippi we see evidence for the impending Newt surge, although Cain is doing pretty well there too. Gingrich is at 28% to 25% for Cain, 14% for Perry, 12% for Romney, 5% for Bachmann, 4% for Paul, and 1% each for Huntsman, Johnson, and Santorum.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/11/media-distrust-helping-cain-hang-on.html

[tsai3904]

Iowa Senate District 18 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IAMSOH_1108513.pdf)
11/4 - 11/6
266 usual Republican primary voters in Senate District 18
+/-6.0%

Results in parenthesis are from the last Iowa (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/10/cain-leads-in-iowa.html) poll conducted between 10/7 - 10/10.

Cain 25% (30%)
Gingrich 16% (8%)
Romney 16% (22%)
Paul 9% (10%)
Perry 7% (9%)
Bachmann 6% (8%)
Huntsman 3% (1%)
Santorum 3% (5%)
Johnson 1% (1%)

Ron Paul Crosstabs:

18 to 29 - 12% (36%)
30 to 45 - 20% (12%)
46 to 65 - 3% (7%)
Older than 65 - 7% (5%)


Man 12% (8%)
Woman 7% (12%)

Who would be your second choice for President:

Cain 15% (16%)
Gingrich 15% (17%)
Bachmann 12% (11%)
Romney 10% (11%)
Perry 9% (12%)
Paul 6% (9%)
Santorum 4% (5%)
Huntsman 2% (3%)
Johnson 2% (1%)

[tsai3904]

Ohio (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/11/media-distrust-helping-cain-hang-on.html)
11/4 - 11/6
500 usual Republican primary voters
+/-4.4%

Results in parenthesis are from the last Ohio (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/10/more-good-numbers-for-cain.html) poll conducted between 10/13 - 10/16.

Cain 34% (34%)
Gingrich 20% (14%)
Romney 19% (19%)
Paul 5% (7%)
Perry 5% (5%)
Bachmann 4% (6%)
Huntsman 2% (1%)
Johnson 1% (0%)
Santorum 1% (1%)

Ron Paul Crosstabs:

18 to 29 - 10% (23%)
30 to 45 - 5% (10%)
46 to 65 - 6% (5%)
Older than 65 - 2% (3%)


Man 7% (10%)
Woman 3% (4%)

Who would be your second choice for President:

Gingrich 19% (14%)
Cain 16% (17%)
Romney 13% (13%)
Bachmann 9% (11%)
Perry 9% (10%)
Paul 5% (5%)
Santorum 2% (1%)
Huntsman 1% (1%)
Johnson 1% (1%)

[tsai3904]

Mississippi (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/11/media-distrust-helping-cain-hang-on.html)
11/4 - 11/6
400 usual Republican primary voters
+/-4.9%

Results in parenthesis are from the last Mississippi (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/04/barbour-bryant-lead-in-mississippi.html) poll conducted between 3/24 - 3/27.

Gingrich 28% (18%)
Cain 25%
Perry 14%
Romney 12% (8%)
Bachmann 5% (5%)
Paul 4% (4%)
Huntsman 1%
Johnson 1%
Santorum 1%

Ron Paul Crosstabs:

18 to 29 - 3% (4%)
30 to 45 - 12% (3%)
46 to 65 - 5% (6%)
Older than 65 - 3% (3%)


Man 6% (5%)
Woman 2% (3%)

Who would be your second choice for President:

Cain 17%
Gingrich 15%
Perry 14%
Romney 10%
Bachmann 9%
Paul 5%
Huntsman 2%
Santorum 2%
Johnson 1%

[R3volutionJedi]

face/palm
I would think the south would love Paul.

[D.A.S.]

Jeez.

[LibertyAirwaves]

I think this really shows how undecided the voters are everywhere. We need our moment, something that grabs voters attention and make us seem interesting. The message is already good, I think it comes down to marketing.

[jware]

My state has been completely brainwashed by Fox News....:(

[Tod]

My state has been completely brainwashed by Fox News....:(

mine too

[jmdrake]

face/palm
I would think the south would love Paul.

He doesn't hate "moose-slums".

[PaulConventionWV]

Stick a fork in us we're done. Sorry to say, but the media simply won't let us win. The best we can do is hope to spread the message.

[tsai3904]

Stick a fork in us we're done. Sorry to say, but the media simply won't let us win. The best we can do is hope to spread the message.

Imagine if Ron Paul said that in 1974 when he lost his very first election.

[D.A.S.]

Stick a fork in us we're done. Sorry to say, but the media simply won't let us win. The best we can do is hope to spread the message.

I'm not done. I'm in it to fight for the long haul. I suggest you take this as an opportunity to get mad and re-double your efforts in promoting Ron Paul!

[bluesc]

Stick a fork in us we're done. Sorry to say, but the media simply won't let us win. The best we can do is hope to spread the message.

Dude, how many times? Yes, everyone knows you have given up. Stop trying to fucking discourage everyone else and stick to general politics.

[da32130]

Stick a fork in us we're done. Sorry to say, but the media simply won't let us win. The best we can do is hope to spread the message.

Based on what? Two states where voters just say whatever is on TV? We win Iowa and their opinions can change just as quickly.

We have the votes in Iowa to win this. We just have to phone bank and get them to caucus.

Let's focus on what matters: getting voters to the Iowa caucus

Here is the why and how:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?328197-How-Ron-Paul-Wins

[akalucas]

the iowa poll is crap. only around 250 polled and 6% margin of error! wtf. u would think they would poll more people in iowa then ohio or mississippi since they go first but instead they polled twice more people in both ohio and mississppi than iowa. i would wait to see what more reliable polls say. im pretty certain Paul is still 12-14 in iowa which is very close to ginrich and romneys 16%. this is not over yet

[jmdrake]

Stick a fork in us we're done. Sorry to say, but the media simply won't let us win. The best we can do is hope to spread the message.

Wrong. The best we can do is get off our butts and make more calls, knock on more doors and talk to more people. We should find out who's open to the idea of voting for Ron Paul in the GOP primary and go after them. It requires getting rid of personal prejudice, learning to hear what people are really saying as opposed to what the media tells you they are saying, and ending the idea that Ron Paul will win the conventional way when he is an unconventional candidate. Ron Paul polls better among democrats and independents than any other GOP candidate. It's time to seek those voters out.

[PastaRocket848]

Take the glasses off man.. Ron hasn't been 12-14% steady in Iowa since mid-August. We're falling, about to lose this thing, and all the people poo-pooing the polls and happily burying their head in the sand are just as harmful to the campaign as the "screw it I quit" folks. Were in bad shape. Were not on track to win. Let's give as much effort to fixing it as we do to making excuses for it.

[da32130]

Take the glasses off man.. Ron hasn't been 12-14% steady in Iowa since mid-August. We're falling, about to lose this thing, and all the people poo-pooing the polls and happily burying their head in the sand are just as harmful to the campaign as the "screw it I quit" folks. Were in bad shape. Were not on track to win. Let's give as much effort to fixing it as we do to making excuses for it.

Having glasses on or off doesn't change anything. Our opinions of where we are in the polls means nothing. The only things that matter is what can increase those numbers.

How we do that is win Iowa. How we win Iowa is by phonebanking.

Saying we have no chance (is objectively wrong) and pointless.

[realtonygoodwin]

So, that isn't Iowa as a whole, but one Senate district within Iowa, right?

[revgen]

It doesn't matter what the polls say.

What matters is who is going to go out and vote in the primary.

Most republicans want anybody except Obama. That leaves primary voting to fickle members who prefer a certain Republican candidate. Like us.

In other words, don't believe what the polls tell you.

[tsai3904]

So, that isn't Iowa as a whole, but one Senate district within Iowa, right?

Yes, it was a poll within Iowa Senate District 18 only.

[akalucas]

Take the glasses off man.. Ron hasn't been 12-14% steady in Iowa since mid-August. We're falling, about to lose this thing, and all the people poo-pooing the polls and happily burying their head in the sand are just as harmful to the campaign as the "screw it I quit" folks. Were in bad shape. Were not on track to win. Let's give as much effort to fixing it as we do to making excuses for it.


Paul has polled 12% 4 times in october, one being at the end of october. There has only been one credible poll done so far in novmeber, which was on november 3rd. There were no polls done in setpember that met the criteria of being "well done", which is why no polls in september were added in RCP iowa section. remember we have precedence to add another 3-4 percent above that since the people that he sometimes gets are ones that are independent or havent voted before. Last go around we did 3-4 percent better than polls stated so right now it is not stretch of the imagination that we can get 3-4% about 12%, which is 15-16%. Granted that is not good enough to win but it helps us that the polls are showing that is being split between 3 people. romney and ginrich both have 16% and cain is in the low 20's. If we can manage to increase 6-7% we might be able to take this but its going to take on the ground people to get people out to vote.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

[PastaRocket848]

Having glasses on or off doesn't change anything. Our opinions of where we are in the polls means nothing. The only things that matter is what can increase those numbers.

How we do that is win Iowa. How we win Iowa is by phonebanking.

Saying we have no chance (is objectively wrong) and pointless.

i didn't say we had "no chance". nor did i suggest that we should do anything *but* push harder to turn it around. a win in iowa will help in that regard. will it make us an instant front-runner? no. that said.. it's still the focus for now, as it should be. what bothers me is seeing a 2008-redux: everyone claiming polls are "wrong" and that somehow we are doing better currently than what they represent. we all thought that last go-round... and we were all very, very wrong. if we took all that brainpower that we use to come up with reasons why the polls may be inaccurate and applied it to actually changing people's minds, we'd be a lot better off. that's all i'm saying.

[PastaRocket848]

Paul has polled 12% 4 times in october, one being at the end of october. There has only been one credible poll done so far in novmeber, which was on november 3rd. There were no polls done in setpember that met the criteria of being "well done", which is why no polls in september were added in RCP iowa section. remember we have precedence to add another 3-4 percent above that since the people that he sometimes gets are ones that are independent or havent voted before. Last go around we did 3-4 percent better than polls stated so right now it is not stretch of the imagination that we can get 3-4% about 12%, which is 15-16%. Granted that is not good enough to win but it helps us that the polls are showing that is is being split between 3 people. romney and ginrich both have 16% and cain is in the low 20's. If we can manage to increase 6-7% we might be able to take this but its going to take on the ground people to get people out to vote.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

polls are a snapshot in time. where we were polling last month has absolutely no bearing on where we stand today. it is disingenuous to suggest that we are doing better *right now* than current polls indicate. we should all know better, after last time. we are in single digits. we need to be in the high 20's by january. trying to spin 7-9% into 12-14% does nothing to accomplish that goal.

[SchleckBros]

Iowa Senate District 18 (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IAMSOH_1108513.pdf)
11/4 - 11/6
266 usual Republican primary voters in Senate District 18
+/-6.0%

Results in parenthesis are from the last Iowa (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/10/cain-leads-in-iowa.html) poll conducted between 10/7 - 10/10.

Ron Paul Crosstabs:

18 to 29 - 12% (36%)
30 to 45 - 20% (12%)
46 to 65 - 3% (7%)
Older than 65 - 7% (5%)



Did anyone look at the crosstabs? Paul had a big jump among 30-45 but had a huge dropoff among 18-29. He also dropped pretty bad among 18-29 in Ohio too. I wonder if his views on the student loan crisis are scaring some of them.

[bolidew]

NO improvement in ALL these polls since they were last taken, sigh.

[akalucas]

polls are a snapshot in time. where we were polling last month has absolutely no bearing on where we stand today. it is disingenuous to suggest that we are doing better *right now* than current polls indicate. we should all know better, after last time. we are in single digits. we need to be in the high 20's by january. trying to spin 7-9% into 12-14% does nothing to accomplish that goal. first you say we havent polled a steady 12% since august, I provide proof we have polled numerous times 12% 2.5 months after august, then you say that doesnt matter but only current polls matter. i fail to see how a poll in october 26, which has us as 12%, is not current. There has been only ONE valid poll done after that one. how is it then that you can say we are doing worse in november with only one valid poll done so far on the 3rd. I dont understand how u can spin 7-9% when 2 out of 3 of the last polls has us at 12% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html Like i said, there IS precedence that paul does 3-4% better than what polls say, its not just coming out of my imagination. We have data from last go around to show that this is the case. BUT like i pointed out we need an increase of 6-7% if we are to have any chance of winning, so there is work to be done but being overly pessimistic is not the answer and neither is saying that everything is perfect and rosy.

guys, dont take this poll so serious. 6 percent margin of error is too huge to take this serious, this means paul can be anywhere from 3%-15% in iowa. the poll is a joke and i dont think it will make it to rcp

[da32130]

i didn't say we had "no chance". nor did i suggest that we should do anything *but* push harder to turn it around. a win in iowa will help in that regard. will it make us an instant front-runner? no. that said.. it's still the focus for now, as it should be. what bothers me is seeing a 2008-redux: everyone claiming polls are "wrong" and that somehow we are doing better currently than what they represent. we all thought that last go-round... and we were all very, very wrong. if we took all that brainpower that we use to come up with reasons why the polls may be inaccurate and applied it to actually changing people's minds, we'd be a lot better off. that's all i'm saying.

Fair enough. But I think you can be a little more constructive in how you do it. Show them how it is done.

We have the votes right now to win Iowa. We just need to get people focused on turnout. In early caucus states where the effort by competing candidates wasn't as great as Iowa in 2008 Ron Paul did much better:

22% in Washington
21% in North Dakota
25% in Montana
16% in Minnesota
17% in Alaska
18% in Maine
14% in Nevada (2nd place finish)
10% in Iowa (highest poll was 10%, but average at time of caucus was only around 7% - he is polling consistently in the 12% area now, which could mean high teens support, if not more - that is why phone from home, etc. matter, increasing turnout ensures victory)

With the weak ground games in Iowa in 2012 there is no reason we couldn't pull much more voters than polling would currently indicate.

[akalucas]

Fair enough. But I think you can be a little more constructive in how you do it. Show them how it is done.

We have the votes right now to win Iowa. We just need to get people focused on turnout. In early caucus states where the effort wasn't as great as Iowa in 2008 Ron Paul did much better:

22% in Washington
21% in North Dakota
25% in Montana
16% in Minnesota
17% in Alaska
18% in Maine
14% in Nevada (2nd place finish)
10% in Iowa (highest poll was 10%, but average at time of caucus was only around 7% - he is polling consistently in the 12% area now, which could mean high teens support, if not more - that is why phone from home, etc. matter, increasing turnout ensures victory)

With the weak ground games in Iowa in 2012 there no reason we couldn't pull much more voters than polling would currently indicate.
+1
there are more than enough supporters in Iowa to win, but we need them to turn out and vote. Hopefully the campaign is working on something to get the students motivated to go out and vote. a lot of them will be out on vacation which is good because most of them are registered to vote in their own county but to get them to actually go out is a different matter. We should have some kind of voting bomb that iowans sign up(with phone number and email in the database) for on ron pauls website....with a ticker that has 50-60,000 votes as a limit. people seem to love this kind of stuff and motivates them.

[Give me liberty]

Ron Paul continues to struggle in the South

Cain leads in Ohio with 34% to 20% for Newt Gingrich, 19% for Mitt Romney, 5% each for Ron Paul and Rick Perry, 4% for Michele Bachmann, 2% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% each for Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum. These numbers are particularly notable because PPP polled in Ohio just 3 weeks ago- Cain's 34% now is the exact same share he had then, with Romney standing steady and Gingrich up 5 points. At least in that state Cain hadn't lost any support at all as of the weekend.

In Iowa Senate District 18, where a special election today will determine control of the Iowa State Senate, Cain leads as well with 25% to 16% for Gingrich and Romney, 9% for Paul, 7% for Perry, 6% for Bachmann, 3% for Huntsman and Santorum, and 1% for Johnson.

And in Mississippi we see evidence for the impending Newt surge, although Cain is doing pretty well there too. Gingrich is at 28% to 25% for Cain, 14% for Perry, 12% for Romney, 5% for Bachmann, 4% for Paul, and 1% each for Huntsman, Johnson, and Santorum.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/11/media-distrust-helping-cain-hang-on.html

Blah people are fucking idiots, not all but some, OH we need Cain!! Oh Noes!! these are lies!! :mad::rolleyes:
Its not only a matter of time before the GOP stars asking herman Cain to drop out of the race, by the way are these polls before the press conference?

Its no wonder why older folks taking Herman Cain as there favorite i guess its because they dont have access to the web or they are qutie ignorant of the world around them, i wasnt aiming this at everyone, i do want to point this out, older folks would rather let the media choose for them.