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View Full Version : NBC/Wall St. Journal GOP Primary National Poll, Includes 3 way General Election poll




michaelkellenger
11-07-2011, 06:30 PM
LINK: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45196665/ns/politics-decision_2012/#.TrktwHJjO0u

Polled from 11/2 to 11/5 (Past poll from 10/6-10/10 in parentheses)

Romney 28% (23%)
Cain 27% (27%)
Gingrich 13% (8%)
Ron Paul 10% (11%)
Perry 10% (16%)
Bachmann 4% (5%)
Santorum 2% (1%)
Huntsman -- (3%)

3 Way National Poll
Obama 44%
Romney 35%
Bloomberg 13%

3 Way National Poll with Paul
Obama 44%
Romney 32%
Paul 18%

bluesc
11-07-2011, 06:32 PM
If he decides to run third party, he will get in the debates as long as he is above 15%.

KevinR
11-07-2011, 06:33 PM
Throw this in hot topics, and get back to winning Iowa!

kah13176
11-07-2011, 06:34 PM
If he decides to run third party, he will get in the debates as long as he is above 15%.

He. Will. Not. And. Should. Not. Run. Third. Party. Even talking about this 3rd party shit makes people think voting for him is a waste of a vote.


As for the matchup, that's really pathetic.

smartguy911
11-07-2011, 06:34 PM
Dr. Paul has no plans to run as an independent. 4th at 11% is ok. Let's keep working and aim for 15-20%.

bluesc
11-07-2011, 06:36 PM
He. Will. Not. And. Should. Not. Run. Third. Party. Even talking about this 3rd party shit makes people think voting for him is a waste of a vote.


As for the matchup, that's really pathetic.

Not much else to talk about looking at this poll. We all have the same discussion every time a new national poll comes out with no movement (every week). The 3 way race numbers looked appealing.

Uriah
11-07-2011, 06:40 PM
Where is the link?

tsai3904
11-07-2011, 06:47 PM
Where is the link?

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/November_Poll.pdf

TheTexan
11-07-2011, 07:11 PM
3 Way National Poll with Paul
Obama 44%
Romney 32%
Paul 18%

It's kind of a dick move to throw that in the poll, but I'll overlook it because 18%?!?!?! Nice.

The Republican establishment FEARS that crosstab lol.

mwkaufman
11-07-2011, 07:13 PM
The poll also has Obama defeating Romney 49% to 43%. So Paul ends up taking 5% from Obama or over 10% of Democrats, and 11% from Romney or over 25% of Republicans.

So 10% of Republicans and 5% of Democrats support Ron Paul, 15% more Republicans are so fiercely anti-Romney they'd vote against him in the general election. Presumably even more would support him over Romney if it didn't involve costing the GOP the election, so that's a pretty decent coalition of support available to Paul.

18% in the general election is over 23 million people, plus the aforementioned other Republicans.

USAFCapt
11-07-2011, 07:28 PM
Considering name recognition that's pretty good. He's easily in the 20s% with summer 2012 debates.

trey4sports
11-07-2011, 07:29 PM
Sorry but no way 15% as a 3rd party candidate holds up. Eventually people will fall into the "2 person race."

sailingaway
11-07-2011, 08:04 PM
Polled from 11/2 to 11/5 (Past poll from 10/6-10/10 in parentheses)

Romney 28% (23%)
Cain 27% (27%)
Gingrich 13% (8%)
Ron Paul 10% (11%)
Perry 10% (16%)
Bachmann 4% (5%)
Santorum 2% (1%)
Huntsman -- (3%)

3 Way National Poll
Obama 44%
Romney 35%
Bloomberg 13%

3 Way National Poll with Paul
Obama 44%
Romney 32%
Paul 18%

LOL!

Those IDIOTS!!!!!!!

Why are they pushing this? He has no intention, but this poll tells him he would make the debates, if he did!

Don't they understand the term 'self fulfilling prophecy'? They are pushing Ron Paul supporters out of 'the GOP club' by treating Ron so badly. We ALWAYS treat people well who treat him well. And the opposite is pretty knee jerk around here, as well.

Yeah, I guess it should go to hot topics but I have seen such crap about that third party nonsense, today, I almost want to rub their noses in that poll.

Treat our man with respect.

sailingaway
11-07-2011, 08:07 PM
Sorry but no way 15% as a 3rd party candidate holds up. Eventually people will fall into the "2 person race."

It did for Perot. And I think it would through the debates, and once he is in the debates with Obama and Romney both sounding alike.....

:D

I have no thought of third party, or HAD no thought before I saw this poll and people started hounding him about it.

I still have no intention he go third party, but I sure hope they note that treating Ron well might get them further than treating him badly will.

RKoho
11-07-2011, 08:10 PM
It did for Perot. And I think it would through the debates, and once he is in the debates with Obama and Romney both sounding alike.....

:D

I have no thought of third party, or HAD no thought before I saw this poll and people started hounding him about it.

I still have no intention he go third party, but I sure hope they note that treating Ron well might get them further than treating him badly will.

Seeing this poll makes me think I'd love to see Paul run 3rd party if we lose. He'll have enough polling for the GE debates and just school Obama and likely, Romney. First third party candidate to win? :D

That said, we still have our current work to do.

bolidew
11-07-2011, 08:13 PM
Ron polls better again GOP than within GOP, ironically.

Badger Paul
11-07-2011, 08:15 PM
The only way this works if we're creating an actual "third party" a new party with elected officials (yes, Rand has to be a part of it for it to work). This cannot be another vanity run or an LP run. This has to be something brand new we would create.

And we can only do so if we run well in the primaries and caucuses in the spring. If 5 percent won't cut it with the GOP, it will not do so as a third party candidate.

ronpaulfollower999
11-07-2011, 09:16 PM
If Ron Paul doesn't get the nomination why shouldn't he run 3rd party? We are all pretty adamant about No One But Paul. I understand we should be focused on winning Iowa and using that momentum to win the nomination so I also understand why 3rd party talk goes into Hot Topics, but I seriously think this is something that should be discussed and considered.

This poll completely shocked me. I was expecting 2-5%, but 18%…wow.

specsaregood
11-07-2011, 09:21 PM
If he decides to run third party, he will get in the debates as long as he is above 15%.
They will change the rules to always be +1% more than his current polls, mark my words. The debates are now run by the GOP and DNC, there is nothing stopping them from making the requirements whatever they want.

RDM
11-07-2011, 09:27 PM
Throw this in hot topics, and get back to winning Iowa!

Damn!!! When are people on this forum going to stop this 3rd party shit. I think its time for the MODS to clean house from the people that are sabotaging Ron's election.

michaelkellenger
11-08-2011, 06:14 AM
This got moved to hot topics because people get butt hurt by the fact he was included a 3 way poll. Amazing. What a joke you people are.

michaelkellenger
11-08-2011, 06:20 AM
Damn!!! When are people on this forum going to stop this 3rd party shit. I think its time for the MODS to clean house from the people that are sabotaging Ron's election.

Wow you need some help, paranoid piece of crap. Posting a primary poll is sabotaging his election? Amazing. WOWOOWOW AMAZING.

bluesc
11-08-2011, 06:25 AM
This got moved to hot topics because people get butt hurt by the fact he was included a 3 way poll. Amazing. What a joke you people are.

Again, you say "you people". One person moved it. Why not take it up with Josh (site admin) instead of calling us all a joke?

bluesc
11-08-2011, 06:28 AM
They will change the rules to always be +1% more than his current polls, mark my words. The debates are now run by the GOP and DNC, there is nothing stopping them from making the requirements whatever they want.

The CPD has already set the criteria, and it has been 15% for years. Are they really allowed to change it whenever they want? It would be such a transparent move to silence a legitimate candidate, along with 15%+ of the electorate. I'm not sure 20,000,000 Americans would take too kindly to it.

michaelkellenger
11-08-2011, 06:40 AM
Again, you say "you people". One person moved it. Why not take it up with Josh (site admin) instead of calling us all a joke?

Maybe I will. We are letting paranoid, easily offended people cry into getting their way. Whats the big deal about a poll? These are good numbers. I swear the number of nuts and conspiracy theorists on this site go up by the minute. I say "you guys" because there are multiple people whining like babies.

fatjohn
11-08-2011, 06:58 AM
wow, if he gets 10 percent in the republican primary, that is 5% in the general. But there are an additional 13% independents, democrats, anyone but romney or obama republicans that would vote for him. if only a fraction of them would vote in the republican primary that would be a huge bump. 5% of the general would kick ron to 20% in the gop.

bobbyw24
11-08-2011, 07:05 AM
In a hypothetical three-way match up, Obama gets 44 percent, Romney gets 32 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul gets 18 percent.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45196665/ns/politics-decision_2012/#.TrkpJXJjO0t

bobbyw24
11-08-2011, 07:07 AM
Tweeted

Tunink
11-08-2011, 07:09 AM
Although he has stated that he doesn't want to run 3rd party, I think it would be nice for him to use this figure in some sort of context to his advantage.

speciallyblend
11-08-2011, 07:11 AM
i watched this show. a couple of points i would like to make. In the segment they compared one on one romney and others but failed to mention ron paul and obama head to head;) Then said the gop had no one to beat obama? Ron paul; hello anyone home? almost comical and i would hope many saw that watching msnbc.

Then they went into 3rd party match ups and talked ron paul 18% . anyone have the latest poll results for ron paul 2012 vs obama? If so please post here so i can make a thread and add this to a project i want to start for everyone. It will be a fluid thread but we need everyones help.

speciallyblend
11-08-2011, 07:12 AM
i watched this show. a couple of points i would like to make. In the segment they compared one on one romney and others but failed to mention ron paul and obama head to head;)&nbsp;&nbsp; Then said the gop had no one to beat obama? Ron paul; hello anyone home?&nbsp; almost comical and i would hope many saw that watching msnbc. <br><br>Then they went into 3rd party match ups and talked ron paul 18%&nbsp; .&nbsp;&nbsp; anyone have the latest poll results for ron paul 2012 vs obama? If so please post here so i can make a thread and add this to a project i want to start for everyone. It will be a fluid thread but we need everyones help.

bobbyw24
11-08-2011, 07:13 AM
Although he has stated that he doesn't want to run 3rd party, I think it would be nice for him to use this figure in some sort of context to his advantage.

Yep

bluesc
11-08-2011, 07:21 AM
wow, if he gets 10 percent in the republican primary, that is 5% in the general. But there are an additional 13% independents, democrats, anyone but romney or obama republicans that would vote for him. if only a fraction of them would vote in the republican primary that would be a huge bump. 5% of the general would kick ron to 20% in the gop.

Any Republicans Ron gains in the general as a 3rd party candidate but doesn't have in the primaries are the hardcore anti-Romney people. They will do absolutely anything to avoid voting for him, or just stay home if there is no other option, and then there are others that would reluctantly vote for Romney in the general to beat Obama, but want a conservative in the primaries. If we become the anti-Romney, we will have them. No question.

Nathan Hale
11-08-2011, 07:45 AM
I remember an analysis posted on this site a week or so ago that made a convincing case for Ron to run as an indy if Romney won the GOP nod. I used to be against the idea, because I agreed with Paul's analysis that the GOP was the machine to use to win the Presidency. BUT, if Romney gets the nod, and he and Obama run to the center in a status-quo race, Ron could (as this poll shows) outposition them. 18% puts Ron in the debates. And once in the debates, where he would be given a LOT more speaking time than he currently gets, I think this number would grow to plurality and VICTORY.

So, per the article posted on these forums a week or so ago, if by February it looks like Romney is getting the nod, Ron should bail and run as an independent.

GeorgiaAvenger
11-08-2011, 03:25 PM
Ron won't run third party for President but he might accept a VP nod, I would be interested in a Palin/Paul ticket to break the establishment.

fatjohn
11-08-2011, 04:09 PM
Any Republicans Ron gains in the general as a 3rd party candidate but doesn't have in the primaries are the hardcore anti-Romney people. They will do absolutely anything to avoid voting for him, or just stay home if there is no other option, and then there are others that would reluctantly vote for Romney in the general to beat Obama, but want a conservative in the primaries. If we become the anti-Romney, we will have them. No question.

Yes but if that group is quite small as in not 26% of the GOP, then that means that a large part of indies and democrats would go for Ron.

Cutlerzzz
11-08-2011, 04:15 PM
What a joke you people are.You people? Is that some kind of racist joke?

nayjevin
11-08-2011, 05:42 PM
THE MEMO

Need a poll that shows:
- Romney is still strong
- Cain is undamaged and still a frontrunner
- Gingrich is rising
- That outsider longshot quixotic flamboyant spoiler guy is dropping

If that outsider longshot quixotic flamboyant spoiler guy runs 3rd party as a dirty Libertarian (as we all know he really is) then he will steal the presidency from the Republicans and hand it directly to Obama. Therefore the GOP should shun him.

TAKE AS MANY POLLS AS NECESSARY UNTIL YOU GET THESE RESULTS

This poll should fit that narrative nicely.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204190704577024570740477122.html

RonPaulFanInGA
11-08-2011, 05:45 PM
That's enough to get into the debates (minimum: 15%.)

If Paul has even an inkling of running third party, he should cease spending money that will have to be re-raised on this depressing GOP primary (Herman Cain, really?).

V3n
11-08-2011, 06:02 PM
Focusing on the GOP Primary, this is PROOF, cold hard numbers, that unless Ron Paul is the Republican Nominee, the Republicans will lose to Obama.
This does not mean much to the elite at the top. This does not mean anything to the Military Industrial Complex, or the ones running the media.
But this means something to your friends and neighbors who are SICK of Barack Obama. To all of us in the middle and lower class - we are sick of Obama.

We know Ron Paul supporters cannot be swayed, the elite knows they cannot be swayed, and now we have the numbers to prove it. Even if he doesn't run third-party, his supporters will not budge. That means:

If you vote for anyone but Ron Paul, you're just throwing your vote away.
If you vote for anyone but Ron Paul, that's a vote for Obama.
If you want Obama to be a one-term President, you can only do that by voting for Ron Paul.
Ron Paul is not unelectable, he's the only Republican that IS electable!

These phrases, this idea, this has to get into the minds of the rank & file GOP.

anaconda
11-08-2011, 06:18 PM
The Republican establishment FEARS that crosstab

They certainly should but they don't seem to be really doing anything about it at this point except alienating Ron. I don't understand the wisdom of their approach.

anaconda
11-08-2011, 06:19 PM
Ron won't run third party for President but he might accept a VP nod, I would be interested in a Palin/Paul ticket to break the establishment.

Your reasoning? I'm very curious.

RonPaulFanInGA
11-08-2011, 06:24 PM
Ron won't run third party for President but he might accept a VP nod, I would be interested in a Palin/Paul ticket to break the establishment.

How is a Palin-anything Republican ticket going to happen? Or do you think Palin would actually run third party, pick Paul, and Paul, not wanting to run for President as a third party candidate, will be happy to run for Vice President as a third party candidate?

anaconda
11-08-2011, 06:24 PM
Sorry but no way 15% as a 3rd party candidate holds up. Eventually people will fall into the "2 person race."

Not this time around and with this economy. It's a perfect storm for an anti-establishment candidate with an honest and principled history and a unique platform who is also a bona fide conservative.

anaconda
11-08-2011, 06:26 PM
The poll also has Obama defeating Romney 49% to 43%. So Paul ends up taking 5% from Obama or over 10% of Democrats, and 11% from Romney or over 25% of Republicans.

So 10% of Republicans and 5% of Democrats support Ron Paul, 15% more Republicans are so fiercely anti-Romney they'd vote against him in the general election. Presumably even more would support him over Romney if it didn't involve costing the GOP the election, so that's a pretty decent coalition of support available to Paul.

18% in the general election is over 23 million people, plus the aforementioned other Republicans.

Keep in mind the 18% is for early November, 2011. This number could be significantly higher in one year from now.

michaelkellenger
11-08-2011, 09:03 PM
You people? Is that some kind of racist joke?

Yes, obviously racist as I can see the race of all the people hiding behind an avatar and username. Yup, you go it. "You people" was intended to be racist. Actually, it refers to people like yourself, idiots, imbeciles, and the like. When you ask questions like that, it really proves my point. Whiners and conspiracy idiots are crawling every on the forums.

Warrior_of_Freedom
11-08-2011, 11:10 PM
If he decides to run third party, he will get in the debates as long as he is above 15%.
That's as simple as deleting Ron Paul and replacing it with Gingrich.

malkusm
11-08-2011, 11:13 PM
Guys, let's be real: This is a ploy to continue the "third party run" storyline for as long as they can, to make him look unelectable in the GOP primary. The media knows that he's true to his word to a greater extent than any modern politician, and likely won't run third party -- but they sure do like to talk about it.

Honestly, this poll is a distraction -- who are we using it to convince? It sure isn't Republicans, because it shows Obama handily winning a second term.

Warrior_of_Freedom
11-08-2011, 11:23 PM
Guys, let's be real: This is a ploy to continue the "third party run" storyline for as long as they can, to make him look unelectable in the GOP primary. The media knows that he's true to his word to a greater extent than any modern politician, and likely won't run third party -- but they sure do like to talk about it.

Honestly, this poll is a distraction -- who are we using it to convince? It sure isn't Republicans, because it shows Obama handily winning a second term.
If all those Romney people joined Paul, we would win by a mile :D

Cutlerzzz
11-08-2011, 11:26 PM
Yes, obviously racist as I can see the race of all the people hiding behind an avatar and username. Yup, you go it. "You people" was intended to be racist. Actually, it refers to people like yourself, idiots, imbeciles, and the like. When you ask questions like that, it really proves my point. Whiners and conspiracy idiots are crawling every on the forums.It's bad enough that you spread your racism througout this topic with your comments, and now you're personally attacking me?

Personal attacks will not be tolerated. *reported*

michaelkellenger
11-09-2011, 04:07 AM
Go ahead buddy. Cry some more.

Cutlerzzz
11-09-2011, 04:41 AM
Go ahead buddy. Cry some more.You seem angry.

jkob
11-09-2011, 05:40 AM
They'd never let Paul into the debates, even if he was polling over 10%. This is a trap.

Miss Annie
11-09-2011, 07:42 AM
I really don't know if I would believe ANYTHING that comes out of NBC, even poll numbers! It seems to me that they are the worst of the worst for biased media.