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View Full Version : One person will win Iowa




NeoconTea
11-03-2011, 07:30 AM
Currently, 3 campaigns are running a true Iowa or bust campaign: Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum

Cain also needs to win Iowa, but he could be gone even sooner.

It's not unreasonable to think that all 4 of those candidates will be out of the race by the time New Hampshire rolls around.. that is long as Ron/Mitt finish 1st and 2nd in Iowa.

Then that leaves a 4 person race: 3 RINOs and Paul. The path to winning this is not nearly as hard as you might believe. We MUST win Iowa though.

InTradePro
11-03-2011, 08:02 AM
Perry is not runnning a bust campaign in Iowa

NeoconTea
11-03-2011, 08:13 AM
Perry is not runnning a bust campaign in Iowa
Then where does he expect to win? He's more Iowa or bust than us I'd imagine.

Suzu
11-03-2011, 08:14 AM
Currently, 3 campaigns are running a true Iowa or bust campaign: Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum.
And not Ron Paul?

NeoconTea
11-03-2011, 08:17 AM
He's not going to drop out, but yeah he needs Iowa too. The point is that by him winning Iowa, not only does he get a ton of positive momentum, but he also narrows down the field considerably.

sailingaway
11-03-2011, 08:18 AM
Perry is not runnning a bust campaign in Iowa


I agree. He doesn't want to be shut out but he is aiming for South Carolina. He just wants to come out of IA and NH still a 'frontrunner' of sorts. Which is still a major fight. But he has LOTS of money for ads and my assessment of the need for huge swaths of the electorate to be spoon fed on tv has changed dramatically watching voter preference swings follow media in this campaign. He COULD win IA if he somehow captures the imagination of enough people who never paid attention to all his missteps.

In our favor, those people are less likely to be the 'caucusing' sort.

V3n
11-03-2011, 08:19 AM
All in for IOWA!! Get on the phone from home! LET'S WIN THIS!!!!

mwkaufman
11-03-2011, 08:22 AM
Someone has to win South Carolina. There's no way it becomes a Romney vs Paul battle that early. Neither finished in the top three there last time around. The only candidates for sure not competing by the time of the South Carolina primary are Santorum who will drop out after not finishing in the top two in Iowa, and Huntsman who will drop out after not finishing in the top two in New Hampshire. Bachmann might drop out if she loses to Cain and Perry in Iowa, and Gingrich might drop out if he decides to stop spending money, but at the very least Cain/Paul/Perry/Romney will contest South Carolina.

wstrucke
11-03-2011, 08:28 AM
Err... there is no way Cain would drop out regardless of where he finishes in Iowa. I'd bet if he came in dead last in SC though he would have to seriously rethink things.

mwkaufman
11-03-2011, 10:11 AM
Back to Iowa, Ron Paul can win if he matches the great growth shown in the last two months of his 2008 Iowa campaign.

11/1/07 3% RCP Average
12/1/07 5% RCP Average
1/1/08 7% RCP Average
Election 10% Voters

11/1/11 11% RCP Average

If he gains 66% in the polls in November like last time, then 40% in December like last time, and then outperforms those numbers 40% on election day like last time, he'd have 36% of the vote and win.

In 2007 he turned out 1,305 for the Ames Straw Poll and nine times that in the election for 11,841. In 2011 he turned out 4,671 for the Ames Straw Poll and if he turns out nine times that for the election he'll have 42,039 votes, more than any candidate ever.

braane
11-03-2011, 10:24 AM
Back to Iowa, Ron Paul can win if he matches the great growth shown in the last two months of his 2008 Iowa campaign.

11/1/07 3% RCP Average
12/1/07 5% RCP Average
1/1/08 7% RCP Average
Election 10% Voters

11/1/11 11% RCP Average

If he gains 66% in the polls in November like last time, then 40% in December like last time, and then outperforms those numbers 40% on election day like last time, he'd have 36% of the vote and win.

In 2007 he turned out 1,305 for the Ames Straw Poll and nine times that in the election for 11,841. In 2011 he turned out 4,671 for the Ames Straw Poll and if he turns out nine times that for the election he'll have 42,039 votes, more than any candidate ever.

Interesting stats are interesting.

Anyways... thinking about those who will be dropping out. Depending on how serious allegations against Cain become, he could drop out before Iowa. I don't see that happening, however. If Gingrich doesn't get the media push next he could easily be out, he has no money. I don't see that happening either, the push for him may have already begun. Bachmann is really hoping for Iowa, but I just don't see it. I think she drops out shortly after they narrow the debate field (which I would suspect to happen soon?). Same thing with Santorum, who has even less money than Gingrich and Bachmann, but may be in the campaign for a tv deal or something. So Santorum will probably be in there come Iowa, and drop out shortly after.

The three candidates who will probably take this thing all the way through the process are Romney, Perry, and Paul. Cain is a bit of a wild card in those regards. The reason those three can do that is because they have the finances to do it. Cain's funding has gone up for October, but I don't think it will last. Perry's funding should dry up, if it hasn't already, but he has enough to carry him well into the primary season as it is.

willwash
11-03-2011, 10:29 AM
Luckily, Perry has run some good ads, but they've all just been anti-Romney and haven't promoted Perry veru much. That's a free ad for us as well.

NeoconTea
11-03-2011, 11:40 AM
Err... there is no way Cain would drop out regardless of where he finishes in Iowa. I'd bet if he came in dead last in SC though he would have to seriously rethink things.
Anthony Weiner said he wouldn't resign either. He's going to be forced to once hes caught in his lies.

gb13
11-03-2011, 01:56 PM
Back to Iowa, Ron Paul can win if he matches the great growth shown in the last two months of his 2008 Iowa campaign.

11/1/07 3% RCP Average
12/1/07 5% RCP Average
1/1/08 7% RCP Average
Election 10% Voters

11/1/11 11% RCP Average

If he gains 66% in the polls in November like last time, then 40% in December like last time, and then outperforms those numbers 40% on election day like last time, he'd have 36% of the vote and win.

In 2007 he turned out 1,305 for the Ames Straw Poll and nine times that in the election for 11,841. In 2011 he turned out 4,671 for the Ames Straw Poll and if he turns out nine times that for the election he'll have 42,039 votes, more than any candidate ever.

If all those stats are accurate, that is VERY promising!

JohnGalt1225
11-03-2011, 03:00 PM
I think Cain's campaign is really on life support at this moment. I really think not placing well in Iowa could be a death blow to his candidacy. Bachmann and Santorum will be gone after Iowa for sure. I'm not sure on Newt, I guess it depends on how much of a bubble he receives from the MSM the next few weeks.

InTradePro
11-03-2011, 03:08 PM
Then where does he expect to win? He's more Iowa or bust than us I'd imagine.
South Carolina

SpicyTurkey
11-03-2011, 03:15 PM
Only one person can win? For the longest time I've been thinking that at lest two can win it.

John F Kennedy III
11-03-2011, 03:25 PM
Ron Paul is Iowa or bust.