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View Full Version : Newt Gingrich just passed Herman Cain on Intrade




rp08orbust
11-02-2011, 02:48 PM
Not really a surprise, but there it is:

http://i.imgur.com/2Hpm5.png

bluesc
11-02-2011, 02:50 PM
Rick Perry having an 11% chance. Lol. Non-existent Huntsman has a better chance than Ron. Double lol.

realtonygoodwin
11-02-2011, 02:58 PM
We have been stuck at 2.4 for a while now....that number will multiply by 5 if we win Iowa.

JoshLowry
11-02-2011, 02:58 PM
It was pretty strange what happened on Intrade the day before the Iowa Straw Poll.

I don't know who runs it. The MSM sites like to reference it, so I don't any longer.

The guy who used to own the site died in May this year while trying to climb Everest.

I hate it when we compare any numbers of 3rd party websites that can be exploited for personal gain.

Fundraising numbers are much harder to fudge.

rp08orbust
11-02-2011, 03:02 PM
It was pretty strange what happened on Intrade the day before the Iowa Straw Poll.

Can you describe what happened that you found strange? All I remember is that Michele Bachmann started tanking and Ron Paul started surging a few days before the straw poll; Ron overtook her a couple days before and held the top spot until the Bachmann campaign revealed that they had sold 6,000 straw poll tickets a couple hours before the counting was done, at which point Ron Paul plummeted. I watched Intrade closely the entire week and it all mostly made sense to me.

JoshLowry
11-02-2011, 03:04 PM
I don't have screenshots, but it flipped from Bachmann leading to Paul leading in a very short time period, like number of hours. Not over a several day period as I remember it.

Could be wrong, but I remember I made a mental note of it being strange. I haven't had the time to ever dive in over there. Don't know if I will.

It appears you can sway public perception if just one person had enough cash on this site.

RileyE104
11-02-2011, 03:10 PM
Anyone who thinks Huntsman's chances are better than Paul's is out of their mind. Being honest, you'd have to place his chances under that of Santorum.

rp08orbust
11-02-2011, 03:11 PM
I don't have screenshots, but it flipped from Bachmann leading to Paul leading in a very short time period, like number of hours. Not over a several day period as I remember it.

I remember mentally attributing the flip to this article: http://theiowarepublican.com/2011/august-surprise-can-ron-paul-win-the-iowa-straw-poll/

InTradePro
11-02-2011, 03:15 PM
I don't have screenshots, but it flipped from Bachmann leading to Paul leading in a very short time period, like number of hours. Not over a several day period as I remember it.

Could be wrong, but I remember I made a mental note of it being strange. I haven't had the time to ever dive in over there. Don't know if I will.

It appears you can sway public perception if just one person had enough cash on this site.

Sure. There was tweets about number of tickets distributed from people at the event. The tweets effected the market that's not unusual.

sailingaway
11-02-2011, 03:17 PM
I don't have screenshots, but it flipped from Bachmann leading to Paul leading in a very short time period, like number of hours. Not over a several day period as I remember it.

Could be wrong, but I remember I made a mental note of it being strange. I haven't had the time to ever dive in over there. Don't know if I will.

It appears you can sway public perception if just one person had enough cash on this site.

It was changing very quickly based on what I thought were the reports out of the straw poll. Typically, apart from that higher trade volume couple of days, it has seemed, so far, to be low volume trades anyone who wanted to use it as an 'independent' source could fudge by handling both sides of a transaction, without too much cost. We could do it, but the money is better spent giving it to Ron at this point, imho. (Also, someone suggested US citizens weren't allowed to bet on political candidates. I don't know one way or the other about that.)

iamse7en
11-02-2011, 03:52 PM
None dare call it a conspiracy... I wonder why I keep seeing Newt in third place in so many state polls. Look out. I'd buy intrade stock in him. It's got nowhere to go but up. Not saying he'll win (well though I have said that before), but you can sell before he disappears.

Lovecraftian4Paul
11-02-2011, 04:43 PM
Gingrich is going up to third. It's not enough for the establishment to ensure that Ron Paul doesn't win. They want him crushed and thrown back to fifth place where he belongs. To accomplish this, they intend to keep Romney up and Cain and Gingrich in second and third.

Agorism
11-02-2011, 04:48 PM
I don't have screenshots, but it flipped from Bachmann leading to Paul leading in a very short time period, like number of hours. Not over a several day period as I remember it.


It's just like the real stock markets. Inside trading runs way ahead of what the media tells people because there is money on the line.

People on the ground probably realized that Bachmann was going to win.