Polls from 4 years ago

[Elwar]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2012_2008_gop_presidential_race_4_years_ago.html

(http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2012_2008_gop_presidential_race_4_years_ago.html)M cCain was polling 11.3% nationally on 12/12/07.

At the end of 2007 he was at 16%. Two weeks later he locked the race by winning New Hampshire on top polling 30%.

He was in 3rd or 4th throughout November and December staying under the radar. Avoiding what the media is currently doing to Cain. Digging into everything.

We need to keep this climb going and then hit it hard on Dec. 16th with the Tea Party gatherings. That is when Ron Paul needs to start climbing fast in the polls.

[CaptUSA]

You got it. I keep telling folks, we're in great shape. Looking good in Iowa. Looking at 2nd in New Hampshire. Looking to be the anti-Romney candidate by Super Tuesday (or whatever it ends up being called...).

Timing is everything in politics. Other campaigns are burning their chances, but Paul still has huge upside. If he brings out Carol around Christmas, Ron Paul will win the nomination and the Presidency.

[69360]

What's the tea party doing on the 16th? I'm not involved with them at all. But I'd hold my nose and go to a tea party for Ron.

[Gage]

What's the tea party doing on the 16th? I'm not involved with them at all. But I'd hold my nose and go to a tea party for Ron.
He is referencing the Tea Party money bomb held in 2007 on December 16 that raised $6 million in 24 hours.

[jbuttell]

yes, those things show just how fast the numbers can swing... thing is, I remain baffled as to why it happened. There was some 'magical resurrection' that occurred with McCain, that I truly believe was done purely with media hype, not anything his campaign did, or some change in heart of voters.

[KingNothing]

yes, those things show just how fast the numbers can swing... thing is, I remain baffled as to why it happened. There was some 'magical resurrection' that occurred with McCain, that I truly believe was done purely with media hype, not anything his campaign did, or some change in heart of voters.

It was all about Thompson and Rudy collapsing, Mitt not appealing to standard Republicans, and Huckabee not having the chops to run a Serious campaign.

McCain's path to the nomination is really a wonderful example of how it's done: be less awful than everyone else.

[MomsBasement]

It was all about Thompson and Rudy collapsing, Mitt not appealing to standard Republicans, and Huckabee not having the chops to run a Serious campaign.

McCain's path to the nomination is really a wonderful example of how it's done: be less awful than everyone else.

No, the previous poster is actually correct. I remember it very clearly. It started the day of the Lieberman endorsement. The media began their narrative about McCain resurrecting his campaign and started giving him massive coverage. A bump in the polls resulted, which resulted in more coverage, which resulted in top tier status. 100% media created. I'd venture to say that if Lieberman hadn't endorsed McCain, Romney would have been the nominee in 08.

[KingNothing]

No, the previous poster is actually correct. I remember it very clearly. It started the day of the Lieberman endorsement. The media began their narrative about McCain resurrecting his campaign and started giving him massive coverage. A bump in the polls resulted, which resulted in more coverage, which resulted in top tier status. 100% media created. I'd venture to say that if Lieberman hadn't endorsed McCain, Romney would have been the nominee in 08.


I'm not denying the ancillary things like the Lieberman endorsement. The point is, though, if mainstream republicans didn't have such a distaste for Romney, the opportunity for a narrative shift in favor of McCain would have never happened.
The media loved Thompson, the media loved Rudy, and the media loved Huckabee. All had positive, media-driven, narratives. ...until they didn't. McCain just gave them nothing to spin negatively after overcoming the initial bumps in the road early in the process.

[Fredom101]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2012_2008_gop_presidential_race_4_years_ago.html

(http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2012_2008_gop_presidential_race_4_years_ago.html)M cCain was polling 11.3% nationally on 12/12/07.


At the end of 2007 he was at 16%. Two weeks later he locked the race by winning New Hampshire on top polling 30%.

He was in 3rd or 4th throughout November and December staying under the radar. Avoiding what the media is currently doing to Cain. Digging into everything.

We need to keep this climb going and then hit it hard on Dec. 16th with the Tea Party gatherings. That is when Ron Paul needs to start climbing fast in the polls.


This is deceiving. Right around that time is when the media ressurected him from the dead, because it was clear that Freddy Thompson was flopping and there were danger signs all around Rudy. So they went with their 3rd option, McCain, and shoved him down our throats until everyone was using the word "frontrunner" with McCain.

RP will NOT have the media on his side EVER. Get ready for more blackouts, especially as it gets closer to election day. 08 was handed to McCain by the PTB. NOTHING will be handed to RP. Just being realistic here as I lived and breathed the 08 campaign.

[JamesButabi]

Hopefully the campaign is courting big endorsements to be strategically unveiled because you can be sure others will have some.

[thesnake742]

It is encouraging to see that the current lowish polling numbers are not the end of it all. But it isn't safe to assume that just because we are where McCain was, our numbers will do the same thing. If the polls always did the same thing, the media could just call the election right now. It truly looks like the biggest threat is going to be to overcome Romney. Now, if the Paul campaign does have some major endorsements ready, we can do our damned best to replicate McCain's strategy. But, the country is in a different place now.. maybe it's not the strategy the people need this time around. Time will tell.

[Elwar]

What's the tea party doing on the 16th? I'm not involved with them at all. But I'd hold my nose and go to a tea party for Ron.

You will not be holding your nose to go to a tea party for Ron.

We will be the tea parties, a repeat of 2007 when we started the Tea Party movement.

[Karsten]

It was all about Thompson and Rudy collapsing, Mitt not appealing to standard Republicans, and Huckabee not having the chops to run a Serious campaign.


Serious question: how do we avoid being this year's Huckabee: Win Iowa and fail to capitalize on that?

[JohnGalt1225]

It is encouraging to see that the current lowish polling numbers are not the end of it all. But it isn't safe to assume that just because we are where McCain was, our numbers will do the same thing. If the polls always did the same thing, the media could just call the election right now. It truly looks like the biggest threat is going to be to overcome Romney. Now, if the Paul campaign does have some major endorsements ready, we can do our damned best to replicate McCain's strategy. But, the country is in a different place now.. maybe it's not the strategy the people need this time around. Time will tell.
Right, but I don't think many of us are assuming Ron's poll numbers will automatically follow McCain's, but it gives hope.

[bluesc]

Serious question: how do we avoid being this year's Huckabee: Win Iowa and fail to capitalize on that?

We are not in the same situation as him. People always refer to Huckabee when saying the Iowa strategy will not work.

We win Iowa to prove "Ron Paul can win", and his closet supporters come out. We hold strong in other early states and don't drop out before Super Tuesday, and what choices do people have? Mitt Romney, or the anti-Romney. Ron would win Texas easily.

[KingNothing]

Serious question: how do we avoid being this year's Huckabee: Win Iowa and fail to capitalize on that?

Paul's campaign is completely different than Huck's. Ron's staff is seasoned and they're running this thing perfectly. On top of that, Paul ALREADY has an ability to pull in money. Imagine what will happen to his coffers if he wins Iowa? Money would POUR in.

Winning Iowa is the most important milestone in Ron's presidential quest. If he makes that happen, all bets are off and the race is blown wide open.

[mwkaufman]

Serious question: how do we avoid being this year's Huckabee: Win Iowa and fail to capitalize on that?

The Republican party has changed. Last time around on 10/31/07, it was Giuliani/McCain/Romney as the big gov't Republicans at 54% and Thompson/Huckabee/Paul as the small gov't Republicans at 27%. The GOP leaned two to one towards big gov't candidates. So when the big gov't Republicans coalesced around McCain and the small gov't Republicans coalesced around Huckabee/Paul in the post-Super Tuesday contests, McCain had a relatively easy victory. The RCP average reflects this, at the end of the Race it was 57% McCain, 33% Huckabee/Paul.

This time around on 10/31/11, it's Romney/Gingrich/Huntsman as sort of the big gov't Republicans at 35% and Cain/Perry/Paul/Bachmann/Santorum as the small gov't Republicans at 50%. If again undecideds go towards the smaller gov't candidates, it's going to be hard for Romney to beat whichever small gov't Republican he's up against.

[ZanZibar]

Thanks for posting this.-

[MJU1983]

http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y205/MJU1983/ron-paul-hat-2012.jpg