Des Moines Register To Release Poll At 8pm Tonight of Likely 2012 Republican Caucus-Goers

[Agorism]

Des Moines Register To Release Poll At 8pm Tonight of Likely 2012 Republican Caucus-Goers


n Saturday, October 29, 2011, at 8 p.m. EST, The Des Moines Register, a Gannett company, will release the initial findings of the year’s second Iowa Poll of likely 2012 Republican caucus-goers, exclusively through DesMoinesRegister.com.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/des-moines-register-to-release-second-iowa-poll-results-of-likely-2012-republican-caucus-goers-at-8-pm-est-on-saturday-oct-29-2011-10-27

[TexMac]

This better be good, is all I have to say.

[69360]

Predictions? Mine is Cain 20, Romney 18, Paul 14

[Epic]

Predictions? Mine is Cain 20, Romney 18, Paul 14

Looks about correct.

What was the DMR's first poll results?

[bluesc]

Predictions? Mine is Cain 20, Romney 18, Paul 14

That prediction was made in another thread, and I agree :).

[freeforall]

Is this the straw poll or something else?

[bluesc]

Is this the straw poll or something else?

Scientific poll. It's being played up by the WSJ, ect.

[69360]

Looks about correct.

What was the DMR's first poll results?

Cain 10, Romney 23, Paul 7, Gingrich 7, Bachmann 22, Frothy 4, Huntsman 2

[KingRobbStark]

I hope paul is bewteen 15-20%. Wouldn't that be great?

[Agorism]

Is this the straw poll or something else?

I knew this thread was going to cause confusion so I added "of Likely 2012 Republican Caucus-Goers" to the title so people wouldn't get mixed up.

[69360]

I hope paul is bewteen 15-20%. Wouldn't that be great?

Would be, might be slightly wishful, Cain hasn't imploded yet.

[Epic]

Prediction:

Romney 20
Cain 19
Paul 15
Newt 9
Santorum 6
Perry 4
Bachmann 3

[freeforall]

I knew this thread was going to cause confusion so I added "of Likely 2012 Republican Caucus-Goers" to the title so people wouldn't get mixed up.

I'm easily confused. :p. So are they announcing the results at the same time the straw poll is announcing theirs?

[ross11988]

Prediction. Would be awesome results.

Romney 22%
Cain 18%
Paul 14%

[Karsten]

Predictions? Mine is Cain 20, Romney 18, Paul 14

Mine is Paul 30, Cain 20, Romney 1

I can dream.

[Rocco]

Honestly...


Romney 23%
Cain 22%
Paul 10%
Gingrich 10%
Bachmann 9%
Santorum 6%

Cain has yet to implode and Romney's consistent. Gingrich is on the way up as well.

[bluesc]

Honestly...


Romney 23%
Cain 22%
Paul 10%
Gingrich 10%
Bachmann 9%
Santorum 6%

Cain has yet to implode and Romney's consistent. Gingrich is on the way up as well.

Also wouldn't surprise me, but you would have to bring Santorum and Bachmann down a bit.

[NeoconTea]

Romney - 22
Cain - 19
Paul - 15
Gingrich - 11
Perry - 10
Bachmann - 8
Santorum - 4

[Karsten]

Honestly...


Romney 23%
Cain 22%
Paul 10%
Gingrich 10%
Bachmann 9%
Santorum 6%

Cain has yet to implode and Romney's consistent. Gingrich is on the way up as well.
Yeah no way Bachmann's at 9.

[ShaneEnochs]

Romney 26%
Cain 23%
Gingrich 14% (They've been pushing him)
Paul 13%

[Karsten]

If Paul polls high along with the win today in the straw poll it would sure help.
That said, I wouldn't be dissapointed if Paul was low, I support him nomatter what.

[ZanZibar]

Interesting they are releasing this at the same time that Ron will probably win the Republican Straw Poll.

[No1ButPaul08]

If I've learned one thing in the last 4 years, it's to not trust a Des Moines Register poll.

[Uriah]

Romney, Cain, Paul, Gingrich, and Perry will be only candidates above 10%. Perry may not hit double digits. Santorum above Bachmann. About 15% undecided.

[Bruno]

Unfortunately, the cynic in me says they will use this to overshadow his blowout straw poll win.

[bb_dg]

I was about to say the same thing,i just hope paul actually does well to show his support is growing

[SpicyTurkey]

Romney 26%
Cain 23%
Gingrich 14% (They've been pushing him)
Paul 13%

Even with the push. He couldn't possibly be that high up in the polls.

[pauliticalfan]

I honestly have no idea what to expect. I think anything above 12% is good news, but as long as we've improved from the 7% we got in the last one, it's fine.

[bluesc]

I honestly have no idea what to expect. I think anything above 12% is good news, but as long as we've improved from the 7% we got in the last one, it's fine.

I'm hoping for a boost from the ads and the media. We have to move up at some point. Huckabee did.

I'm rarely let down by polls, but I will be let down if we are not above 13%. We need to break that barrier just so we know that we can.

[realtonygoodwin]

Romney 24
Cain 21
Gingrich 11
Paul 10
Perry 8
Santorum 6
Bachmann 4
Huntsman 1

[trey4sports]

very nervous. Hopefully the media buy is starting to move people our way. Anything over 12% is good IMO

[The Magic Hoof]

What is this? Ron won the straw poll today, so is this like a scientific study of who they think will win Iowa when the time comes or something?

[trey4sports]

What is this? Ron won the straw poll today, so is this like a scientific study of who they think will win Iowa when the time comes or something?


scientific poll.

[The Magic Hoof]

If Ron won the straw poll by a blowout, I'd like to think Ron will take it all in the study being released. But I'll take everyone's word for it that he most likely won't =/ I don't understand the way all of this works. But here's to hoping.

[WD-NY]

Unfortunately, the cynic in me says they will use this to overshadow his blowout straw poll win.

agreed - ::sigh::

[satchelmcqueen]

lol

[Brett85]

Is the poll out yet?

[TexMac]

Counting down.....

[pauliticalfan]

Third with 12%

[pauliticalfan]

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/10/29/cain-romney-lead-registers-iowa-poll/


Herman Cain and Mitt Romney are the twin towers of the new Iowa Poll of likely Republican caucusgoers, with the Georgia businessman at 23 percent and the former Massachusetts governor at 22 percent.

Cain has surged since the last Iowa Poll in June, when he was at 10 points. Romney, on the other hand, has held steady — a rather remarkable feat, since he’s campaigned in Iowa only three days this year. Cain has also been a no-show in the Hawkeye State since the mid-August Iowa Straw Poll.

Ron Paul, the only other candidate in double digits, has risen five points since the June poll. He’s campaigned in a dozen Iowa cities in September and October.

Get an early look at the results at DesMoinesRegister.com, then check back Sunday for all the Register coverage and analysis.

Pretty good news...

[theczar1776]

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/10/29/cain-romney-lead-new-iowa-poll/

[tsai3904]

Iowa (http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/10/29/cain-romney-lead-new-iowa-poll/)
10/23 - 10/26
400 likely caucus-goers
+/-4.9%

Results in parenthesis are from the last Iowa (http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/06/25/iowa-poll-romney-bachmann-in-lead-cain-third-others-find-little-traction/) poll conducted between 6/19 - 6/22.

Cain 23% (10%)
Romney 22% (23%)
Paul 12% (7%)
Bachmann 8% (22%)
Perry 7%
Gingrich 7% (7%)
Santorum 5% (4%)
Huntsman 1% (2%)

[Agorism]

+5 since last time they said.


Herman Cain and Mitt Romney are the twin towers of the new Iowa Poll of likely Republican caucusgoers, with the Georgia businessman at 23 percent and the former Massachusetts governor at 22 percent.

Cain has surged since the last Iowa Poll in June, when he was at 10 points. Romney, on the other hand, has held steady — a rather remarkable feat, since he’s campaigned in Iowa only three days this year. Cain has also been a no-show in the Hawkeye State since the mid-August Iowa Straw Poll.

Ron Paul, the only other candidate in double digits, has risen five points since the June poll. He’s campaigned in a dozen Iowa cities in September and October.

Get an early look at the results at DesMoinesRegister.com, then check back Sunday for all the Register coverage and analysis.

[Dorfsmith]

Up 5 points is 5 points in the right direction. I'm encouraged by these results.

[IndianaPolitico]

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/10/29/cain-romney-lead-registers-iowa-poll/
Not bad, but not too good. I look forward to seeing the crosstabs.

[svobody]

Not bad, but not too good. I look forward to seeing the crosstabs.Not too good? We added +5 from last time...

[The Magic Hoof]

I don't understand. If Paul can have a blowout with straw polls, how is it that he's not doing well with this? I've never understood that.

[IndianaPolitico]

Not too good? We added +5 from last time...
I guess I was just hoping for a bit more. The good things I see is that Gingrich has not seen a surge in Iowa, Bachmann has fallen like a rock, Perry is stuck with Gingrich, and that Romney has not moved a bit.

[parocks]

I don't understand. If Paul can have a blowout with straw polls, how is it that he's not doing well with this? I've never understood that.

Our people go to straw polls

[69360]

I don't understand. If Paul can have a blowout with straw polls, how is it that he's not doing well with this? I've never understood that.

You can organize to win a straw poll. This is a random scientific poll. That said 82% in a caucus state is impressive, it probably has the other campaigns worried. You can organize to win a caucus.

[KramerDSP]

I don't understand. If Paul can have a blowout with straw polls, how is it that he's not doing well with this? I've never understood that.

Straw polls feature the most politically active of people. They make the effort to spend their time and money at straw polls to vote. Ron Paul supporters tend to be politically active and motivated to support their candidate. Thus, they are likely to win straw polls.

Phone polls of likely Republican primary voters (read - those that voted GOP in 2004 and 2008 or some criteria like that, i.e. FOX News viewers) that are politically apathetic and rely on the news for information will hear the name of the candidate they think is going to win and vote for that person. Unfortunately, the phone polls are more accurate than straw poll victories.

12% is good, but we need to make our move very soon. Ron Paul has to peak at the right time, and time is fast approaching for a massive onslaught. The good news is that Iowa does it via caucuses, so Ron's hardcore 12% is more like 18 to 20% counting Indys and Blue Republicans, whereas Cain and Romney's low 20s are much softer in support (less likely to spend several hours going through the caucus process).

[Brett85]

I don't understand. If Paul can have a blowout with straw polls, how is it that he's not doing well with this? I've never understood that.

Straw polls are scientific. The winner of straw polls is usually the candidate who has the most enthusiastic supporters, which is usually Ron. The other candidates have a lot of soft support, which is reflected in these scientific polls.

[The Magic Hoof]

edit: have to finish reading replies first :P

[McDermit]

I don't understand. If Paul can have a blowout with straw polls, how is it that he's not doing well with this? I've never understood that.The people who show up at straw polls en masse are not necessarily people who would be included in polls.

If you're a company polling likely Republican caucus goers, who are you calling? Registered Republicans who have voted in the last 2 caucuses. A decent percentage of RP supporters are Dems, independents, unregistered, or disenfranchised Republicans. Plus the folks most likely to be at home and willing to pick up the phone or a pollster are going to be retirees and homemakers...

And someone who likes Romney because he seems presidential or has nice hair doesn't support him enough to spend their money and drive across the state to vote for him in a poll that has relatively little bearing on the election. But when someone calls them, they'll name him as their top pick, and they'll vote for him because they want to pick the winner.

[parocks]

Not bad, but not too good. I look forward to seeing the crosstabs.

Crosstabs are always fun.

[The Magic Hoof]

Oh now I see what this is, thanks. One last question: when this poll was conducted, was it done via automated telephone call or something? I started getting calls to my house when I registered as a Republican earlier this year.

[pauliticalfan]

Oh now I see what this is, thanks. One last question: when this poll was conducted, was it done via automated telephone call or something? I started getting calls to my house when I registered as a Republican earlier this year.

Yeah, it's usually done via telephone, sometimes with a live operator but sometimes automated.

[The Magic Hoof]

Honestly, with the Cain-Gingrich debate coming up, I think Cain's gonna fall like no other GOP candidate has. I'm almost positive of that. And if Romney is leading, that'll put us right up against him. That gives us a better shot. Especially if the percentages are actually higher as mentioned earlier.

[69360]

Honestly, with the Cain-Gingrich debate coming up, I think Cain's gonna fall like no other GOP candidate has. I'm almost positive of that. And if Romney is leading, that'll put us right up against him. That gives us a better shot. Especially if the percentages are actually higher as mentioned earlier.

That debate will be widely ignored IMO

[lib3rtarian]

Honestly, with the Cain-Gingrich debate coming up, I think Cain's gonna fall like no other GOP candidate has. I'm almost positive of that. And if Romney is leading, that'll put us right up against him. That gives us a better shot. Especially if the percentages are actually higher as mentioned earlier.
I have a feeling it's staged. Gingrich has been doing a lot of boot-licking on stage for Cain, so this could be a set-up to let Cain win and boost him. If Cain wins the nomination, you can be sure Gingrich will get the VP slot. That's what this is all about.

[69360]

I have a feeling it's staged. Gingrich has been doing a lot of boot-licking on stage for Cain, so this could be a set-up to let Cain win and boost him. If Cain wins the nomination, you can be sure Gingrich will get the VP slot. That's what this is all about.

Cain beating Newt in a debate? That's not believable at all based on past performances. Newt is a LOT more intelligent and a LOT better debater than Cain. But who would watch this anyway?

[The Magic Hoof]

who would watch this anyway?

*raises hand*

I think this is going to be some of the funniest stuff Cain has ever done. Newt will wipe the floor with him!

[low preference guy]

Cain beating Newt in a debate? That's not believable at all based on past performances. Newt is a LOT more intelligent and a LOT better debater than Cain. But who would watch this anyway?

This is just slightly related, but it reminded how Romney made Newt look really bad when Romney brought up that Newt supported mandates.

[trey4sports]

meh, it's alright.

[wgadget]

Margin of error is plus or minus 4.9. : )

[bolidew]

I don't understand. If Paul can have a blowout with straw polls, how is it that he's not doing well with this? I've never understood that.
Because the silent majority won't bother with straw polls......

[bolidew]

Honestly, with the Cain-Gingrich debate coming up, I think Cain's gonna fall like no other GOP candidate has. I'm almost positive of that. And if Romney is leading, that'll put us right up against him. That gives us a better shot. Especially if the percentages are actually higher as mentioned earlier.
I like your story but this "debate" will be a win-win for Cain and Newt.

[ShaneEnochs]

There would be NO POINT in Cain debating Newt unless they have agreed to something. Cain's poll numbers are great. Newt's are going up, but they are no where near Cain's. Either Cain has agreed to let Newt wipe the floor with him and get behind him, or it's the other way around. Something is up. It'll be interesting to watch.