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View Full Version : PPP Poll - Nevada General Election / Only Ron Paul Leads with Independents




tsai3904
10-27-2011, 02:06 PM
Nevada (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/10/obama-struggles-in-nevada.html)
10/20 - 10/23
500 voters
+/-4.4%

General Election Matchups:

Obama 46%
Romney 46%



Obama 49%
Cain 46%



Obama 49%
Gingrich 46%



Obama 47%
Paul 43%



Obama 49%
Bachmann 41%



Obama 51%
Perry 41%


Among Independents:

Paul 45%
Obama 43%



Obama 50%
Cain 47%



Obama 47%
Romney 41%



Obama 51%
Gingrich 41%



Obama 50%
Perry 39%



Obama 51%
Bachmann 34%


Among 18 to 29:

Obama 50%
Paul 47%



Obama 57%
Gingrich 40%



Obama 60%
Cain 40%



Obama 60%
Perry 37%



Obama 57%
Bachmann 33%



Obama 60%
Romney 33%


Ron Paul Crosstabs:

18 to 29:

Obama 50%
Paul 47%

30 to 45:

Paul 49%
Obama 42%

46 to 65:

Obama 50%
Paul 37%

Older than 65:

Obama 45%
Paul 43%

Man:

Paul 47%
Obama 43%

Woman:

Obama 51%
Paul 39%

sailingaway
10-27-2011, 02:07 PM
Hm.

bluesc
10-27-2011, 02:09 PM
It's the women, and the Republicans that choose "someone else". They will vote for him in the general. Ron could win Nevada, it would be tough for Romney.

tsai3904
10-27-2011, 02:18 PM
I'm starting to think that maybe we should be focusing more on the 18-29 and Independents instead of the likely Republican primary voters.

We need to discuss if it's easier to convince 18-29 and I's to vote for Ron Paul in the primaries/caucuses or to convince a likely Republican primary voter to vote for Ron Paul.

Basically, is it easier to convince 18-29 who are notoriously known for not voting to get engaged in the political process or to convince a typical Republican who already has a preconceived bias of Ron Paul?

sailingaway
10-27-2011, 02:21 PM
I'm starting to think that maybe we should be focusing more on the 18-29 and Independents instead of the likely Republican primary voters.

We need to discuss if it's easier to convince 18-29 and I's to vote for Ron Paul in the primaries/caucuses or to convince a likely Republican primary voter to vote for Ron Paul.

Basically, is it easier to convince 18-29 who are notoriously known for not voting to get engaged in the political process or to convince a typical Republican who already has a preconceived bias of Ron Paul?

It is getting them registered that is the issue. People should have registration parties at the colleges, and while there set up times and places to get together to go to the caucuses, and get emails to follow up for the caucus results watching parties. Which can be used by their new friends for GOTV.

evadmurd
10-27-2011, 02:27 PM
We need some female Paulites to start an educational pro Paul blog that we can promo on FB and elsewhere. Any of you gals up for it? We can all help write it, it just needs to be from and for the women.

J-Reg
10-27-2011, 02:32 PM
It is interesting how the women are so much against Paul. Hmmmm...... I agree somebody should start something to try to get the female vote.

Uriah
10-27-2011, 02:35 PM
I'm starting to think that maybe we should be focusing more on the 18-29 and Independents instead of the likely Republican primary voters.

We need to discuss if it's easier to convince 18-29 and I's to vote for Ron Paul in the primaries/caucuses or to convince a likely Republican primary voter to vote for Ron Paul.

Basically, is it easier to convince 18-29 who are notoriously known for not voting to get engaged in the political process or to convince a typical Republican who already has a preconceived bias of Ron Paul?

If you go after the 18-29 crowd you'll have to convince them twice. Once to go to the caucus and a second time to vote for Ron Paul. If you go after a likely voter you just have to convince them to vote for Ron. Young people or more fickle as well even if you do convince them twice you may have to convince them thrice.

Jandrsn21
10-27-2011, 02:42 PM
Young independents and young Republicans! For me the future is looking bright!

tsai3904
10-27-2011, 02:43 PM
If you go after the 18-29 crowd you'll have to convince them twice. Once to go to the caucus and a second time to vote for Ron Paul. If you go after a likely voter you just have to convince them to vote for Ron. Young people or more fickle as well even if you do convince them twice you may have to convince them thrice.

This is the point I want discussed. What are the percentages for each?

These numbers are made up but you'll get the point of what I'm talking about:

Let's say there's a 20% chance to convince 18-29 to get involved in politics. Once they get involved, there's a 40% chance they'll vote for Ron Paul. That gives us an 8% chance to convince 18-29 to vote for Ron Paul.

What are our chances to convince a typical Republican with a bias of Ron Paul? Is it greater than or less than 8%?

There are other pros and cons for each. For instance, if we convince a typical Republican to vote for Ron Paul, that will be one vote for Ron Paul and one fewer vote for another candidate. If we convince a 18-29 to vote for Ron Paul, there's a greater chance that the 18-29 will be a lot more passionate and motivated to spread the word than a typical older Republican.

Liberty74
10-27-2011, 02:48 PM
Another reason I supported RP to run as an Independent.

People are foaming at the mouth for a real, third alternative to the Reps and Dems. Rasmussen had a survey out that said over 70% would like to see an Independent run. And when you think about it, RP appeals to both sides of the political spectrum. We shall see first what happens in the Republican primary.

280Z28
10-27-2011, 02:51 PM
I think the age bracket cross tabs have the most interesting result. Paul polls the best of the republicans in the 18-29yo bracket (47% Paul vs. 40% Gingrinch the next closest). In the 30-45 bracket, Cain, Gingrinch, Paul, and Romney are in a 4-way tie for the largest share.

Paul's biggest deficit against Obama is actually in the 46-65 range (13%). Above 65, Paul isn't the favorite Republican but only loses by 2% to Obama.

RDM
10-27-2011, 02:54 PM
Someone started a post today about using SMS Texting to promote Paul using a strategy Obama used in 2008. I think this tactic should be seriously looked into by those that are familiar with this strategy. It targets the younger demographics.

dusman
10-27-2011, 03:01 PM
It is interesting how the women are so much against Paul. Hmmmm...... I agree somebody should start something to try to get the female vote.

JustinPageWood has www.womenforronpaul.com, which is a great start so far.

parocks
10-27-2011, 05:35 PM
I'm starting to think that maybe we should be focusing more on the 18-29 and Independents instead of the likely Republican primary voters.

We need to discuss if it's easier to convince 18-29 and I's to vote for Ron Paul in the primaries/caucuses or to convince a likely Republican primary voter to vote for Ron Paul.

Basically, is it easier to convince 18-29 who are notoriously known for not voting to get engaged in the political process or to convince a typical Republican who already has a preconceived bias of Ron Paul?

The question is whether you want to do a lot of persuading, or a lot of getting the kids to the polls. The kids like Ron Paul.

And, it's always good to clarify who "we" is.

There's the "official campaign" and there's the "grassroots". We know what the official campaign is. "Grassroots" is hard to define.

turbobrain9
10-27-2011, 06:12 PM
Young people represent a small minority of gop primary voters...consider them the icing on the cake...not the batter. 55+ make up the majority of GOP primary voters and even 65+ is the more important segment of the GOP because they are reliable...

Now the independents, yes, Paul is going to need them to win the nomination but I don't think they vote in all the states, so they must register gop, if it is still possible for them to do so...

jasonxe
10-27-2011, 06:29 PM
we need Ron to pose for a firefighter calender of the month. He is buff!

D.A.S.
10-27-2011, 06:30 PM
Here's a great blog site run by a woman which I found from Women for Ron Paul:

http://bonniekristian.com/

Definitely worth promoting.

As far as going after young people, targeting colleges for online and college paper advertisements is one way to go, using Ron's positions that are particularly popular with the young crowd AND promoting voter turnout at the same time.

There's no choosing one strategy. All fronts must be covered if we are to win, and I'm not talking the Campaign - they can only do so much. It will be up to grassroots organization and the RevPAC to figure out ways to reach these different demographics.

bolidew
10-27-2011, 06:51 PM
Pick any GOP celebrity and he/she will compete with Obama pretty well.
It's all about Primary this time around.

parocks
10-27-2011, 07:16 PM
Someone started a post today about using SMS Texting to promote Paul using a strategy Obama used in 2008. I think this tactic should be seriously looked into by those that are familiar with this strategy. It targets the younger demographics.

rp08orbust is an expert in calling cell phones in iowa. he did a lot of very effective work prior to the ames straw poll. got a lot of voters for ron paul.

PierzStyx
10-27-2011, 07:28 PM
There are actually a lot of Mormons in Nevada that could give Romney a good base. That said Paul would still appeal to a broader base, no doubt.

ShaneEnochs
10-27-2011, 07:50 PM
Do Mormons usually vote for other Mormons? I'm a Christian, but I'd vote for whoever best represented my ideals.

tsai3904
10-27-2011, 08:08 PM
The question is whether you want to do a lot of persuading, or a lot of getting the kids to the polls. The kids like Ron Paul.

And, it's always good to clarify who "we" is.

There's the "official campaign" and there's the "grassroots". We know what the official campaign is. "Grassroots" is hard to define.

When I say "we" I'm referring to the grassroots because the campaign most likely isn't going to take campaign advice from the grassroots.

As far as the relevant question, look at my post above in #10. It all comes down to percentages and which category of individuals gives us the better chance at getting a vote for Ron Paul.

parocks
10-28-2011, 10:53 PM
When I say "we" I'm referring to the grassroots because the campaign most likely isn't going to take campaign advice from the grassroots.

As far as the relevant question, look at my post above in #10. It all comes down to percentages and which category of individuals gives us the better chance at getting a vote for Ron Paul.

I looked at #10.

Grassroots vs official campaign where we = grassroots.

The official campaign will be doing very similar to what official campaigns usually do. Use tried and true methods like ads to persuade people. They'd likely be targeting Likely Republican Primary Voters. They make calls to determine who our persuasion efforts have worked with and make sure they vote. The campaign will need, and does get, help from people who also wear "grassroots" hats, but in this case, they're wearing a "volunteer" hat.

When "we" are grassroots, or people who are wearing "grassroots" hats, "we" should be doing something that the official campaign isn't doing. Is there anything the campaign would like done, but can't because it's an official campaign? That's something we should do.

A project that drags 18-29 year olds to the polls is typically not something that Republican candidates have on their to do list. So we do it.

About #10 - I'm not sure that the process would be working that way.

It's not step 1, convince people to vote, step 2, get them to vote for Ron Paul. You get 8% in your math.

It's 60% of males 18-29 support Ron Paul. We get every male we can to vote. Skip the "persuade people about Ron Paul" We've done that. We JUST need to get them to the polls. We can use 100 different ways to do that. We don't want them to "get involved in politics" necessarily. We want them to do a simple task at a given time.
Like a very simple, very easy, very quick JOB, that is so easy, anyone can do it.

In terms of math, again, you get 8%. The math here is simply to get 100% voting, we'll take our 60%, the other candidates will split the 40%. So we're at 20% right there. 60-40.

And again, "we" is grassroots, and there's an official campaign that is doing all the typical, effective stuff. We do our project, which is far different from typical politics, to get bodies that the official campaign does not reach.