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View Full Version : PPP Poll - Nevada GOP Caucus




tsai3904
10-25-2011, 10:11 AM
Nevada (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/10/another-good-week-for-cain.html)
10/20 - 10/23
450 usual Republican primary voters
+/-4.6%

Results in parenthesis are from the last Nevada (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/romney-leads-in-nv-momentum-for-perry.html) poll conducted between 7/28 - 7/31.

Romney - 29% (31%)
Cain - 28% (8%)
Gingrich - 15% (8%)
Paul - 7% (11%)
Perry - 6% (18%)
Bachmann - 3% (14%)
Huntsman - 2% (2%)
Santorum - 2%
Johnson - 0%

Ron Paul Crosstabs:

18 to 29 - 38% (14%)
30 to 45 - 10% (17%)
46 to 65 - 5% (8%)
Older than 65 - 3% (9%)


Man - 6% (13%)
Woman - 8% (8%)

sailingaway
10-25-2011, 10:19 AM
crap

Were Ron's ads playing during that period in NV do we know? I saw one article saying they just started playing Monday in Iowa.

I note again the 'usual Republican primary voters' is not the same as Paul supporters.

parocks
10-25-2011, 10:20 AM
38% 18-29
Caucus state
UNLV and UN Reno are going to be in session on the day of the caucus.

bluesc
10-25-2011, 10:23 AM
450 usual Republican primary voters

What exactly defines "usual"?

sailingaway
10-25-2011, 10:24 AM
450 usual Republican primary voters

What exactly defines "usual"?

And NV used to have both a primary vote and caucus. They are dropping the vote and keeping the caucus. How many of these people caucus?


450 usual Republican primary voters

What exactly defines "usual"?

Presumably that they'd show up even if the choice were just between Romney, Perry, Huntsman and Cain. I wouldn't.

VegasPatriot
10-25-2011, 10:26 AM
crap

Were Ron's ads playing during that period in NV do we know? I saw one article saying they just started playing Monday in Iowa.

I note again the 'usual Republican primary voters' is not the same as Paul supporters.

I don't watch TV very often and to my surprise I have seen several RP ads over the past few weeks. Including a RP ad during the last debate.

CaptUSA
10-25-2011, 10:27 AM
So much has happened since the end of July. I think this changes the number for everyone else substantially. I think Paul's numbers are in the margin of error.

The point being it all depends on who answers the poll for Paul. The others get bumps from exposure and gaffes from the others.

What I think we should take from this is that Paul is not really gaining or losing - he's stagnant. In the current dynamic, Paul is stuck. Should something happen to change the dynamic significantly, he could rise in a heartbeat.

bolidew
10-25-2011, 10:35 AM
Even way behind Gingrich in Nevada? Must be typo of results.

PastaRocket848
10-25-2011, 10:42 AM
how is 11% to 7% not losing but "stagnant"? 11 - 7 = 4, not 0. this is getting pretty damn frustrating.

CaptUSA
10-25-2011, 10:45 AM
how is 11% to 7% not losing but "stagnant"? 11 - 7 = 4, not 0. this is getting pretty damn frustrating. It's a sampling with a +/- 4.6% error. If they happen to get enough Paul supporters in their sample, he comes off better.

HeyArchie
10-25-2011, 10:48 AM
Cain is not dropping like I thought he would.

VegasPatriot
10-25-2011, 10:48 AM
The big problem we have in Nevada is the results of the precinct caucuses will be binding. That means that the number of delegates chosen at the state convention will directly reflect the proportion of precinct caucus attendees- and reflect the proportion of the votes cast for President by precinct caucus attendees.

This appears to be very bad news for Ron Paul supporters. In 2008 Romney won the straw poll hands down with about 50 percent of the vote. Ron Paul placed second with about 12 percent. The "binding" rule was not in place in 2008 and we should have swept the majority of delegates to the national convention. Now, even if we double the support from 2008, the best we can do is 25 percent of the delegates in 2012.

In 2008 we had about 12 percent of the votes at the caucus, but we as Ron Paul supporters are far more dedicated than the other candidate supporters. We showed up in force in 2008 and took control of the state convention (until they shut it down). Now, if we double, or even triple the votes this year... we still have no chance at winning the majority of delegates for the national convention. Unless Romney drops out of the race before the caucus, which is highly unlikely. This rule change basically gives the state to Romney.

With this new binding delegate rule Nevada could still vote without binding the delegates but we would be at risk of losing half of our state delegates. So I say don't abide to the binding delegate rule... win the majority of the delegates for RP at the state convention, and let the RNC take away half of our state delegates. As long as Ron Paul wins the majority of delegates, we win.

CaptUSA
10-25-2011, 10:50 AM
Cain is not dropping like I thought he would.He will... These people just haven't been given their marching orders about where to go next. They'll get those soon enough.

PastaRocket848
10-25-2011, 10:53 AM
It's a sampling with a +/- 4.6% error. If they happen to get enough Paul supporters in their sample, he comes off better.

...or you could just as easily say he's at 3%. it's time to take off the rose-colored glasses. we're losing. hard. so let's quit making up reasons why everyone else is wrong and the polls are all wrong and this that and the other and just do something proactive. brainstorm. what can we do? why are we tanking? we need to think about solutions... not justifications and pipe-dreams of other people failing and handing it to us.

The Free Hornet
10-25-2011, 10:57 AM
Even way behind Gingrich in Nevada? Must be typo of results.

The sad truth is that Newt is where the media really kicks us in the nuts. He is consistently described as "the smartest guy in the room", "the elder stateman" (not adulterer), "the best debater" (questionable), and the only "big idea guy" (when not discussing Cain in that role). The media is tripping over itself to pump up Newt and ignore Ron. I have seen the polls where Ron places 3rd and Newt is 4th. They discuss 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 6th - no mention of Ron.

tsai3904
10-25-2011, 10:59 AM
brainstorm. what can we do? why are we tanking? we need to think about solutions

What prevents people from supporting Ron Paul are his views on foreign policy. If we don't tackle that, we won't win people over. We need to make it known to people that the Republican party is moving in our direction in terms of foreign policy (see this thread here (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?325592-Republican-officials-share-Ron-Paul-s-views-on-foreign-policy)).

CaptUSA
10-25-2011, 11:00 AM
...or you could just as easily say he's at 3%. it's time to take off the rose-colored glasses. we're losing. hard. so let's quit making up reasons why everyone else is wrong and the polls are all wrong and this that and the other and just do something proactive. brainstorm. what can we do? why are we tanking? we need to think about solutions... not justifications and pipe-dreams of other people failing and handing it to us.Wow... I don't think I was dismissing the poll numbers at all. I said I don't think we're gaining anything - I think we're in the same place we've been. I generally don't dismiss polling, but I also look at margin of error.

My opinion on why Paul isn't picking up is because enough people do not think they're allowed to go for him if they are republicans. There needs to be a dynamic shift in the race. People need to drop out. Paul needs high-level endorsements. Someone needs to tell the public that Paul is a viable alternative to the current field. Nobody has done that, yet. Until there's a major shift somehow, I think we'll be stuck at this level (7%-14%)

bolidew
10-25-2011, 11:10 AM
The big problem we have in Nevada is the results of the precinct caucuses will be binding. That means that the number of delegates chosen at the state convention will directly reflect the proportion of precinct caucus attendees- and reflect the proportion of the votes cast for President by precinct caucus attendees.

This appears to be very bad news for Ron Paul supporters. In 2008 Romney won the straw poll hands down with about 50 percent of the vote. Ron Paul placed second with about 12 percent. The "binding" rule was not in place in 2008 and we should have swept the majority of delegates to the national convention. Now, even if we double the support from 2008, the best we can do is 25 percent of the delegates in 2012.

In 2008 we had about 12 percent of the votes at the caucus, but we as Ron Paul supporters are far more dedicated than the other candidate supporters. We showed up in force in 2008 and took control of the state convention (until they shut it down). Now, if we double, or even triple the votes this year... we still have no chance at winning the majority of delegates for the national convention. Unless Romney drops out of the race before the caucus, which is highly unlikely. This rule change basically gives the state to Romney.

With this new binding delegate rule Nevada could still vote without binding the delegates but we would be at risk of losing half of our state delegates. So I say don't abide to the binding delegate rule... win the majority of the delegates for RP at the state convention, and let the RNC take away half of our state delegates. As long as Ron Paul wins the majority of delegates, we win.

Thanks for all the info.

Badger Paul
10-25-2011, 11:45 AM
"450 usual Republican primary voters"

Fortunately this is a caucus and not a primary and the only two candidates with organizations on the ground in Nevada are Romney and Paul.

parocks
10-25-2011, 12:04 PM
I look at that 38% of 18-29s.

And I don't worry so much.

We drag 18-29 year olds from their dorms at University of Nevada Las Vegas and University of Nevada Reno.

Popular vote 2008
romney 22,649
paul 6,087
mccain 5,651
total - 44,324

unlv - 30K students
un reno - 17K students
college of southern nevada - 2 year school - 38K students

Michael Landon
10-25-2011, 12:05 PM
These are Republican voters. I think that is how the Pollsters are going to marginalize Ron Paul by not including independents in the results. Ron pulls a bunch of his voters from the 3rd parties and independents. If they polled Republicans and independents then I'm sure Ron would have been around 15%.

- ML

RIPLEYMOM
10-25-2011, 12:16 PM
Rigged, rigged, rigged. The establishment cannot afford to let the truth out which would alert the herd. I'm telling you, we must attack this head on. Not knowing for sure these polls aren't rigged means we don't know for sure they're not. The establishment certainly doesn't hold back with accusations of fraud when we win polls! Fight!

GopBlackList
10-25-2011, 12:20 PM
I look at that 38% of 18-29s.

And I don't worry so much.

We drag 18-29 year olds from their dorms at University of Nevada Las Vegas and University of Nevada Reno.

Popular vote 2008
romney 22,649
paul 6,087
mccain 5,651
total - 44,324

unlv - 30K students
un reno - 17K students
college of southern nevada - 2 year school - 38K students

In the meantime, let's get some RP supporters tell the young how much going to college is a waster [/sarcasm]

parocks
10-25-2011, 12:22 PM
4% of the people they talked to were 18-29
31% of the people they talked to were 65+

3% of the 65+ pick Ron Paul
38% of the 18-29 pick Ron Paul

Population figures for Nevada.
65+ - 12% of the population
18-29 - over 16% of the population.

Based on how many of each group they talked to, the pollsters believe that 65+ are over 10 times as likely to vote in the caucus as 18-29.

I don't know if that's historically right, but it is something the grassroots can do something about.

parocks
10-25-2011, 12:27 PM
If you're looking for bias in the polls, it's very often in how many 18-29s they talked to.

Often, you will find Ron Paul doing less well in polls where there is no Obama vs Republican matchup.

The pollsters don't want a lot of results where the Republican beats Obama.

If they talk to a lot of old people, the Republican beats Obama.

If they want a poll where Paul doesn't do well, they talk to a lot of old people.

Typically, the pollsters can't have both, they can't have a poll where Paul does poorly and Obama does well.