NYT POLL:

[randomname]

Cain 25%, Romney 21%, Gingrich 10%, Paul 8%, Perry 6%

Most Republican Primary Voters Remain Uncommitted
By ALLISON KOPICKI

With the nation’s first nominating contests just two months away, a large majority of Republican primary voters have yet to make up their minds about the candidate they would like to see as their party’s nominee for president in 2012.

About eight in 10 Republican primary voters say it is still too early to tell whom they will support, and just four in 10 say they have been paying a lot of attention to the 2012 presidential campaign, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

Herman Cain, the former restaurant executive, is riding a wave of support among Republican primary voters that has placed him in a statistical dead heat with rival Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, in a race that has been characterized by momentum swings among the candidates.

The poll found Mr. Cain with the highest level of support, with 25 percent of Republican primary voters, and Mr. Romney with 21 percent. This difference is within the poll’s margin of sampling error.

Adding to the fluidity of the contest, about one in 10 Republican primary voters say they would like to see someone else nominated.

Support for Rick Perry, the governor of Texas, has weakened to 6 percent, placing him among the second-tier candidates with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, who have the backing of 10 percent and 8 percent of Republican primary voters, respectively. Michele Bachmann, Jon M. Huntsman Jr., and Rick Santorum are all struggling to gain traction with the Republican electorate – none of the three drew more than 2 percent of support among Republican primary voters.

The nationwide telephone poll of 1,475 voters was taken from Oct. 19 through Oct. 24 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Within that group, 455 respondents identified themselves as likely Republican primary or caucus voters; the margin of sampling error for these Republican primary voters is plus or minus five percentage points.

Additional poll results will be available at 6:30 p.m. Eastern time Tuesday at NYTimes.com.

[chris41336]

This is excellent news. Essentially ALL support on the top is currently soft if that many people aren't sure and aren'y paying attention yet.

However, this isn't going to help our RCP average. It will just keep Newt above us.

[nasaal]

I love that people can find the positive in all this. Personally though each poll I see I become more and more disappointed and convinced that my dream of seeing a great man take the presidency is more and more over. Maybe someone can explain it to me in a way that I will understand as to how this is a good thing.

[frag4yourlife]

How is gringrich above Ron Paul? Most of his staff resigned eary on, he has no grassroots, and ron paul regularly brings in more money than him. This poll is a lie. Gringrich also loves straw polls.

[chris41336]

I love that people can find the positive in all this. Personally though each poll I see I become more and more disappointed and convinced that my dream of seeing a great man take the presidency is more and more over. Maybe someone can explain it to me in a way that I will understand as to how this is a good thing.

Like I just said, if you read the article she states that 8/10 Republican voters aren't sure which candidate they are voting for and only 4/10 have been actively paying attention.

So, yes, Cain is in 1st and Romney in second. But that is among people who don't really know who they are voting for and most of whom have not really been paying attention.

All this tells me is that the field is still fluid. We all get disappointed by low poll numbers, but I take solace in the fact that neither I nor 90% of the people on this forums has ever so much as had a phone ring by a pollster.

[PastaRocket848]

there is absolutely no way that you can spin 8% (behind newt of all people) in late october after spending millions of dollars on multiple ad blitzes in to a good thing. we're in trouble, and the sooner we take notice (or, really, the campaign does) and try to do something about it the better. we need something new in terms of tactics, something revolutionary. something people haven't seen that the media can't ignore. we need to give ron a megaphone just as big as the media's darlings'.

[Corey]

It's clear as day that the media picks which candidates will succeed. RP has the best ideas, lots of money, huge organization. I'm afraid I don't have an answer for this, but make no mistake this IS the problem. What are a few campaign ads, compared to 24/7 coverage for the other top candidates. It's a drop of water in an ocean!

[69360]

Relax, Cain is not holding up to the spotlight. He is going to implode just like Perry did. That is what people mean by the support at the top is soft.

Just keep working harder.

[Liberty74]

I made a comment the other week about how another national poll showed that 81% of voters said they could change their mind. This is good news of a little hope. Remember that these polls are on a national basis. RP is not running ads nationally yet.

The top 3 have come and gone - Trump, Bachmann, Perry. Will Cain be next? I just don't see him holding on for the next 2-3 months. Gingrich needs to be exposed too for being a fake conservative.

But in the end, it's up to Paul to win this. The timing could not be better for a Paul POTUS.

[Liberty74]

How is gringrich above Ron Paul? Most of his staff resigned eary on, he has no grassroots, and ron paul regularly brings in more money than him. This poll is a lie. Gringrich also loves straw polls.

You don't need a staff or money to poll well early for the primaries. You simply have to do well in the debates as Newt has done. Use the media to your advantage. RP is not doing those things whether his fault or not.

I have been saying that RP needs to turn it up in the debates and create the news if needed to get attention - serious policy speeches, restore America bus tour for jobs, call out the fake conservatives, attack Barack on big govt policies, etc

[Carehn]

Lets just focus on the first couple of primary states. Most people are just saying a name they heard most often recently on fox news, and like it or not thats how most people are going to vote. So come time of the primary thats when we need our bump.

When Paul wins, Let me say that again,When Paul Wins most of the people who voted for him will not have a clue what he even stands for. People, winning an election is a competition of getting as many 55 year old, mindless saps to vote for our guy.

Its not that most people don't care, Its that they are incapable of understanding the issues at all. So we must play the game. Are man, Paul must win this joke of an election process.

Id like to think that America was full of philosophers and patriots but the truth is its full of shit heads and people whos mind has been pickled by prescription drugs. Thats the reality of it, so lets play the game and make sere the water sloshes our way right when it counts.

[NeoconTea]

This is from last Wednesday to Monday, so Cain is probably a bit lower. I'd say this is overall good news because Romney isn't catching on all that much and Perry is at 6%. If we're fighting with Cain and Gingrich, that's a winning fight.

[Fr0m_3ur0pe]

there is absolutely no way that you can spin 8% (behind newt of all people) in late october after spending millions of dollars on multiple ad blitzes in to a good thing. we're in trouble, and the sooner we take notice (or, really, the campaign does) and try to do something about it the better. we need something new in terms of tactics, something revolutionary. something people haven't seen that the media can't ignore. we need to give ron a megaphone just as big as the media's darlings'.

Agree. More focus on Iowa

[Carole]

I heard just a snippet of Rove saying Cain had peaked or was starting to go down. Maybe someone heard all of what he said. ? Yesterday, I think.

[coastie]

You don't need a staff or money to poll well early for the primaries. You simply have to do well in the debates as Newt has done. Use the media to your advantage. RP is not doing those things whether his fault or not.

I have been saying that RP needs to turn it up in the debates and create the news if needed to get attention - serious policy speeches, restore America bus tour for jobs, call out the fake conservatives, attack Barack on big govt policies, etc

Horseshit....Newt hasn't done well in the debates at all, making jokes and NOT answering the questions is not doing well.

Focus people, these polls are a set up, newt is only rising because the media is making it so because they see that Ron Paul is rising.

I've personally won at least 30 votes for our man so far this year, the types that normally would go for Newt.....

[trey4sports]

The ad blitz is not nationwide. this is a media blitz in the early 4 states, and on top of that there is always a lag in peoples perceptions and how they are going to vote. It takes a while to go from "unfavorable/not interested" to "voting for." It is a process, and one ad is not going to do enough. It takes multiple exposures to a candidate to get someone to vote for him.

[limequat]

Lets just focus on the first couple of primary states. Most people are just saying a name they heard most often recently on fox news, and like it or not thats how most people are going to vote. So come time of the primary thats when we need our bump.

When Paul wins, Let me say that again,When Paul Wins most of the people who voted for him will not have a clue what he even stands for. People, winning an election is a competition of getting as many 55 year old, mindless saps to vote for our guy.

Its not that most people don't care, Its that they are incapable of understanding the issues at all. So we must play the game. Are man, Paul must win this joke of an election process.

Id like to think that America was full of philosophers and patriots but the truth is its full of shit heads and people whos mind has been pickled by prescription drugs. Thats the reality of it, so lets play the game and make sere the water sloshes our way right when it counts.

Truth. There will not be throngs of blue hairs crying for liberty on election day. However, if we are smart and lucky we can dupe them into throwing off their chains.
The fact that we have to cajole the unenlightened boot lickers to vote for our freedom is proof that anarchism trumps democracy.

[TexMac]

About eight in 10 Republican primary voters say it is still too early to tell whom they will support, and just four in 10 say they have been paying a lot of attention to the 2012 presidential campaign, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.


That's the takeaway. There's no real support for the others.

[JamesButabi]

I would only be worried if Ron was polling 8% in states we are actively campaigning. We are pretty much banking on early states to create our bump for the rest of the campaign.

[Brett85]

How is gringrich above Ron Paul? Most of his staff resigned eary on, he has no grassroots, and ron paul regularly brings in more money than him. This poll is a lie. Gringrich also loves straw polls.

Yes, every poll that doesn't have Ron doing well is a lie.

[LibertasPraesidium]

People are lazy and do not realize they are slaves to our current system.

A mouse lives in a cage, everyday you tell that mouse it is free, and give it some food. Eventually, that mouse believes it is free.
A second mouse gets put in the cage, starts telling the first that it is not free, but the food still comes, this is my analogy for explaining to people that if they want to be free again, they have to get up and do something about it.

[RIPLEYMOM]

Gut: Can a poll be rigged? Yes, we have proven this many times. Why would such an influential tool used by the media be free from bias, then? It wouldn't.

I, so, want to attack ad the media. Why not? When have they fairly reported our many straw poll and internet poll wins?

Illustrate how media neglect, historically, has been a devastatingly tragic phenomena leading to horrific despotism.

[freejack]

People are lazy and do not realize they are slaves to our current system.

A mouse lives in a cage, everyday you tell that mouse it is free, and give it some food. Eventually, that mouse believes it is free.
A second mouse gets put in the cage, starts telling the first that it is not free, but the food still comes, this is my analogy for explaining to people that if they want to be free again, they have to get up and do something about it.

To continue with your analogy...it's not a bad setup to have a steady food supply and have a warm place to sleep. The formerly free mouse may even get used to it. It is only when the owner begins to demand that they run on the wheel all day for food that they realize they need to do something but by then it may be too late.

Unfortunately, we are not quite at that point yet. Things are going to have to get worse before more people start waking up. We are the sentinels in this battle but if no one hears our cry, then the masses will be in for a rude awakening.

[driller80545]

Lets just focus on the first couple of primary states. Most people are just saying a name they heard most often recently on fox news, and like it or not thats how most people are going to vote. So come time of the primary thats when we need our bump.

When Paul wins, Let me say that again,When Paul Wins most of the people who voted for him will not have a clue what he even stands for. People, winning an election is a competition of getting as many 55 year old, mindless saps to vote for our guy.
Its not that most people don't care, Its that they are incapable of understanding the issues at all. So we must play the game. Are man, Paul must win this joke of an election process.

Id like to think that America was full of philosophers and patriots but the truth is its full of shit heads and people whos mind has been pickled by prescription drugs. Thats the reality of it, so lets play the game and make sere the water sloshes our way right when it counts.


Doesn't speak very well of the youth turnout, does it. Stop being a bigot.

[limequat]

Doesn't speak very well of the youth turnout, does it. Stop being a bigot.

The boomers are a big part of why we are in this mess.

[Czolgosz]

Ron represents the end of an era, they do not want him to win.

[Carehn]

Doesn't speak very well of the youth turnout, does it. Stop being a bigot.

No. the baby boomer generation is the worst to live. They are drugged out, sloppy, uncaring, warmongering, zombies who got us into this mess. If you don't see reality for what it is then its going to be a long hard grind.

Our goal should not be to enlighten them at this point. Time is to short. We must trick these opium freaks to vote for our boy. Them and there chemically lobotomized brains.

I once thought they where just ignorant, but any more I believe its to late for the baby boomers. Many of them have trouble putting sentences together. Its not that they are ignorant, they are incapable of understanding abstract thought.

[PastaRocket848]

Rove was on the radio this morning slamming Cain... he really doesn't want him to win. his arguments were hilarious, though. one was actually something like "he doesn't understand the principles of neoconservatism and it's foreign policy" lol.

[RonPaul101.com]

How is gringrich above Ron Paul? Most of his staff resigned eary on, he has no grassroots, and ron paul regularly brings in more money than him. This poll is a lie. Gringrich also loves straw polls.

Everyone has left Gingrich out of the mud since back in Spring. Its time to show more of the real Newt again to remind people he didn't spur of the moment gain a conscience over the past few months.

[JohnGalt23g]

How is gringrich above Ron Paul? Most of his staff resigned eary on, he has no grassroots, and ron paul regularly brings in more money than him. This poll is a lie. Gringrich also loves straw polls.

Newt Gingrich has been famous for twenty years, and is an extremely polished debater. His performance doesn't surprise me at all.

Keep in mind, Newt's campaign is broke. He won't be able to buy TV, he won't be able to send mail, he won't be able to hire pros for his ground game. That 10% represents his past, not his future.

[PaulConventionWV]

It's clear as day that the media picks which candidates will succeed. RP has the best ideas, lots of money, huge organization. I'm afraid I don't have an answer for this, but make no mistake this IS the problem. What are a few campaign ads, compared to 24/7 coverage for the other top candidates. It's a drop of water in an ocean!

I know it's frustrating. Sometimes quite depressing. It makes you feel the whole world is against you, but worse is the realization that, in a way, it is. I have basically come to terms with the fact that Ron Paul is not going to be president now. They're never going to let his poll numbers get that high. The way the media can just meld people's minds just infuriates me. I'm filled with rage at the idea that they are winning and there's nothing we can do about it. They don't care about us. It's so obvious now that the media is trying to keep us down, and still nobody is paying attention. Nobody cares.

I think I'm done with the campaign for now, to be honest. I would still donate if I could, but I'm in a financial mess and can't give anymore.

[lucent]

I know it's frustrating. Sometimes quite depressing. It makes you feel the whole world is against you, but worse is the realization that, in a way, it is. I have basically come to terms with the fact that Ron Paul is not going to be president now. They're never going to let his poll numbers get that high. The way the media can just meld people's minds just infuriates me. I'm filled with rage at the idea that they are winning and there's nothing we can do about it. They don't care about us. It's so obvious now that the media is trying to keep us down, and still nobody is paying attention. Nobody cares.

I think I'm done with the campaign for now, to be honest. I would still donate if I could, but I'm in a financial mess and can't give anymore.

Then leave, take your pessimism elsewhere.

[PaulConventionWV]

This was taken after the debate.. I guess Paul did not do so well after all..

It's not Paul's fault. The media simply won't cover him, no matter how well he does. It doesn't even matter. Even after the best of news, when everything indicates our support should be growing, it's stagnating or dwindling according to the polls. This is just fucked up right here.

[RIPLEYMOM]

We must face and target the exact media group speak that sadly, I feel, has been effective against us: ...but, he won't win; ...but, he's unelectable. I fear, like the evidence is showing, it will continue to blindly drive Americans to every other candidate but Ron.

Do we have a common weapon, a common saying, to counter this with?

We need an ad to ease the mind of Americans letting them clearly see this, allowing them to feel confident in a vote for Ron Paul.

[PaulConventionWV]

Then leave, take your pessimism elsewhere.

Don't tell me what to do.

[Darthbrooklyn]

@pastarocket.. Youre right, and what Ron needs to do is go on the offensive.. He needs to attack Romney/Cain/Perry with relentless ferocity and call them out on all their flip flops, lack of knowledge on the issues etc.. im not saying to take it down to street level like talking about who mows whos lawn.. The MSM does not like to report the news as much as they are into a "Story" and getting ratings.. to that end, if Ron wants more coverage he needs to insert himself into the main conversation .. Ron is a gentlemen but he needs to step up to get the attention he deserves.. Remember how Santorum spoke up and completely shredded Cains 999 plan? Thats what Ron Paul needs to do.. the clock is ticking..

[EBounding]

It doesn't matter what place Paul is in. He just needs to break 15%.

The only reassuring thing about this poll is Perry who was leading the pack just a month ago. But time is running out fast. I don't think Cain is going to decline as quickly as Perry, simply because he knows how to speak and has easy to understand soundbites.

Paul needs a big endorsement or something to get more broad appeal.

[bolidew]

I am surprised after all the attacks from everyone Cain still holds OK.
What gives?

[limequat]

There been only this one poll since the debate.

[PaulConventionWV]

Truth. There will not be throngs of blue hairs crying for liberty on election day. However, if we are smart and lucky we can dupe them into throwing off their chains.
The fact that we have to cajole the unenlightened boot lickers to vote for our freedom is proof that anarchism trumps democracy.

I don't know if anarchism trumps democracy, but good thing this isn't a democracy. Anarchism will never work, so you can take that pipe dream to another forum. This thread and this forum is about Ron Paul and getting him elected.

[lucent]

I don't know if anarchism trumps democracy, but good thing this isn't a democracy. Anarchism will never work, so you can take that pipe dream to another forum. This thread and this forum is about Ron Paul and getting him elected.

Yes, this forum is about Ron Paul and getting him elected. If you don't want to get him elected, leave.

[Darthbrooklyn]

After the Romney and Perry spat, the media outlets were on overdrive covering it... This is why Paul needs to get in on these spats, in a polished way of course, but he needs to inject himself into the conversation.. then the media would have no choice but to cover him.

[PaulConventionWV]

Yes, this forum is about Ron Paul and getting him elected. If you don't want to get him elected, leave.

Oh, I want to. I am very interested in seeing how the movement grows. Even if he doesn't win, I'm still going to be working on changing the course of the debate in politics and trying to revolutionize the way people think. That's why I'm interested in the campaign, but not necessarily active this time around. I have a lot to do.

Oh, and don't tell me what to do.

[Steve-in-NY]

I think I'm done with the campaign for now, to be honest. I would still donate if I could, but I'm in a financial mess and can't give anymore.Make some calls for the campaign then. It helps. A lot.

[lucent]

Oh, and don't tell me what to do.

Hypocrite.

[limequat]

I know it's frustrating. Sometimes quite depressing. It makes you feel the whole world is against you, but worse is the realization that, in a way, it is. I have basically come to terms with the fact that Ron Paul is not going to be president now. They're never going to let his poll numbers get that high. The way the media can just meld people's minds just infuriates me. I'm filled with rage at the idea that they are winning and there's nothing we can do about it. They don't care about us. It's so obvious now that the media is trying to keep us down, and still nobody is paying attention. Nobody cares.

I think I'm done with the campaign for now, to be honest. I would still donate if I could, but I'm in a financial mess and can't give anymore.


Don't tell me what to do.


I don't know if anarchism trumps democracy, but good thing this isn't a democracy. Anarchism will never work, so you can take that pipe dream to another forum. This thread and this forum is about Ron Paul and getting him elected.

How 'bout you take your own advice there chief.

[RonPaulCult]

there is absolutely no way that you can spin 8% (behind newt of all people) in late october after spending millions of dollars on multiple ad blitzes in to a good thing. we're in trouble, and the sooner we take notice (or, really, the campaign does) and try to do something about it the better. we need something new in terms of tactics, something revolutionary. something people haven't seen that the media can't ignore. we need to give ron a megaphone just as big as the media's darlings'.

I know this thread is on the 5th page or so but excuse me...

1) Don't compare poll to poll, compare polling company poll to same polling company poll. The last NYT poll had us at 7% and the one before that had us at 5%. We're going UP

2) Two former front runners are beneath us, Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann. Bachmann has 2% in this poll! Now THAT is something you can't "spin"

3) Ad blitz? How many ads have you seen? I've seen one Ron Paul ad. We (wisely) aren't advertising nationally. We are advertising in the early primary states. That's exactly what we should be doing. And in those states, we are polling at 13% or so. We're doing very well, and if you compare our percentage to those who went on to win four years ago, we are right where we need to be.

4) Have you not seen how quickly three other candidates have surged in this race (only to eventually fall back down)? People are obviously willing to jump on any ship the other are jumping on to. Just wait until people start jumping on our ship....the will....most of the other ships have sunk to the bottom of the sea.

I'm not promising we will win, but we need to keep working hard - the campaign is doing everything they need to be doing. We should do the same. Work hard and expect results.

[IterTemporis]

Yes, this forum is about Ron Paul and getting him elected. If you don't want to get him elected, leave.

We are all disappointed by these poll results. He was simply expressing his honest opinion. Is it really worth anything to attack a fellow RP supporter? It is futile, in my opinion. It only pushes RP supporters apart, do we really want that?

[Fredom101]

Yes, this forum is about Ron Paul and getting him elected. If you don't want to get him elected, leave.

There are anarchists here who want Ron Paul elected. What's the point in alienating them? If a democrat was here would you be as hostile?

[mwkaufman]

Perry's last poll number this low was in early June. Bachmann's last poll number this low was in mid-April. So both just polled lower than they were over two months before entering the race.

[Fredom101]

Disappointing, but perhaps you can look at it like the Rocky approach. He would just let his opponents use up all their energy in the first few rounds. Then, late in the match, he'd come out swinging and his opponent wouldn't have anything left.

Just a thought. :)

[RDM]

Even though these polls may be a bit discouraging, it shows that the grassroots has to kick it up a notch if you want to take Ron up to the next level. There may be a lot of supporters, but the question is, how many of those supporters ARE actually doing anything to help the cause?

As far as polls, deal with it. They are what they are. A snapshot in time. You want reality? I'll give you reality. You may want to mock this online poll as a joke, but in order to vote, you have to register and it shows the real support these candidates have across every parts of the country. You want to see a snapshot in time of where people stand? Then look at this poll: http://www.sodahead.com/united-states/who-do-you-think-won-cnns-gop-presidential-debate/question-2231547/ and votes are coming in everyday since this poll was started and they have not let up.

Back to my last statement about the grassroots not picking up the slack. When I go to the site meet-up groups for Ron Paul and I look up Iowa and I see ONLY 19 members joined, do I ask myself, is there only 19 supporters in the whole freakin' state of Iowa? I'm sure there's more and that's the point. You people know who you are in Iowa that are not actively involved, just like you know who you are in every state that are not actively involved. You want Paul to win? Then do something about it.

[PastaRocket848]

I know this thread is on the 5th page or so but excuse me...

1) Don't compare poll to poll, compare polling company poll to same polling company poll. The last NYT poll had us at 7% and the one before that had us at 5%. We're going UP

2) Two former front runners are beneath us, Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann. Bachmann has 2% in this poll! Now THAT is something you can't "spin"

3) Ad blitz? How many ads have you seen? I've seen one Ron Paul ad. We (wisely) aren't advertising nationally. We are advertising in the early primary states. That's exactly what we should be doing. And in those states, we are polling at 13% or so. We're doing very well, and if you compare our percentage to those who went on to win four years ago, we are right where we need to be.

4) Have you not seen how quickly three other candidates have surged in this race (only to eventually fall back down)? People are obviously willing to jump on any ship the other are jumping on to. Just wait until people start jumping on our ship....the will....most of the other ships have sunk to the bottom of the sea.

I'm not promising we will win, but we need to keep working hard - the campaign is doing everything they need to be doing. We should do the same. Work hard and expect results.

i see your points... and you are correct that the ad campaign wasn't targeting a national audience and thus isn't really relevant to this poll. it is, however, relevant to the new Iowa poll that just came out... with Ron still far behind the pack. My point is that i'm not talking about one poll. I'm talking about averages... trends.. and we are trending down. Call me "defeatist" or "pessimistic", it just is what it is. Ron's poll numbers, on average, are lower than peak and falling. People on here talking about "don't worry... cain will fall... newt won't catch on" etc are missing the point. we can't just bank on winning because someone else messed up. the poll numbers are a reflection of our support. we need to be at 20% not because mitt is at 15% but because it takes 20% to push the snowball over the cliff. it seems as though very few people want to actually look at it objectively and say "yes, this is where we are.. now let's be proactive and do something" as opposed to "it's all bs" or "just wait till they fall" etc. that is completely the wrong attitude. we won't win by simply being the last man standing. we need support to grow, not shrink.

[sailingaway]

This seems to have been only of GOP voters. They are not polling independents, apparently, but I haven't seen the cross tabs yet, that is just how it is described. Ron really needs independents polled to show up properly. Ron's successes last quarter were ignored, Cain was puffed up, and Gingrich looks good to those who completely ignore his record, which appears to be a fair slice of the electorate.

I don't know if we can overcome the media bias, but I sure wouldn't blame it on Ron.

[TomtheTinker]

I watched ten cable news convos about the candidatest yesterday. Probably 2 hours...1 mention of a paul. Thats why we are at 8% still.

[sailingaway]

i see your points... and you are correct that the ad campaign wasn't targeting a national audience and thus isn't really relevant to this poll. it is, however, relevant to the new Iowa poll that just came out... with Ron still far behind the pack. My point is that i'm not talking about one poll. I'm talking about averages... trends.. and we are trending down. Call me "defeatist" or "pessimistic", it just is what it is. Ron's poll numbers, on average, are lower than peak and falling. People on here talking about "don't worry... cain will fall... newt won't catch on" etc are missing the point. we can't just bank on winning because someone else messed up. the poll numbers are a reflection of our support. we need to be at 20% not because mitt is at 15% but because it takes 20% to push the snowball over the cliff. it seems as though very few people want to actually look at it objectively and say "yes, this is where we are.. now let's be proactive and do something" as opposed to "it's all bs" or "just wait till they fall" etc. that is completely the wrong attitude. we won't win by simply being the last man standing. we need support to grow, not shrink.

The last Iowa poll I saw ended polling on the 19th, the day Ron's ads STARTED, and the day Cain had his Piers Morgan interview. Is there one since then?

[sailingaway]

I watched ten cable news convos about the candidatest yesterday. Probably 2 hours...1 mention of a paul. Thats why we are at 8% still.

this.

Disenfranchisement, much?

But there it is.

[driller80545]

Fox is going on and on this morning about Perry's new plan to save the world. This is the Perry that is polling fourth or fifth. On and on about it. RP must be right with his agenda or we would be hearing all about him too.

[PastaRocket848]

last one i saw he was in 4th... in single digits.. double digits behind the two out front. ads, no ads, who interviewed who when and where... all irrelevant. the fact of the matter is numbers are going down, they have been for a while, and something has to happen. if we spent as much time brainstorming ideas as we did justifications ron would be polling 80% in iowa right now.

[osan]

I love that people can find the positive in all this. Personally though each poll I see I become more and more disappointed and convinced that my dream of seeing a great man take the presidency is more and more over. Maybe someone can explain it to me in a way that I will understand as to how this is a good thing.

You concern yourself too much with winning and losing. Know in your hear what is right and act on it. The rest will take care of itself. It is far better to lose knowing you fought the good fight to the best of your ability than to be like the rest of the pimps who slide by through lies and cowardice.

Keep going. Never stop. Poor as the prospects may seem, the alternatives are worse yet.

[IterTemporis]

i see your points... and you are correct that the ad campaign wasn't targeting a national audience and thus isn't really relevant to this poll. it is, however, relevant to the new Iowa poll that just came out... with Ron still far behind the pack. My point is that i'm not talking about one poll. I'm talking about averages... trends.. and we are trending down. Call me "defeatist" or "pessimistic", it just is what it is. Ron's poll numbers, on average, are lower than peak and falling. People on here talking about "don't worry... cain will fall... newt won't catch on" etc are missing the point. we can't just bank on winning because someone else messed up. the poll numbers are a reflection of our support. we need to be at 20% not because mitt is at 15% but because it takes 20% to push the snowball over the cliff. it seems as though very few people want to actually look at it objectively and say "yes, this is where we are.. now let's be proactive and do something" as opposed to "it's all bs" or "just wait till they fall" etc. that is completely the wrong attitude. we won't win by simply being the last man standing. we need support to grow, not shrink.

I agree. I have seen those exact comments many times. Yes, Perry has fallen, they were right about that. But that did not do anything for us, we did not go up.

I do not wish to do this, but I must compare: Look at Cain supporters, they believe anything he says, and when we try to present them the truth, they say it's BS. Look at some of us here, these are the numbers the polls are giving us. They are legit polls, and people pay attention to them. Yet, some supporters here call them BS.

Whether we agree with the numbers or not, this is where we stand. Instead of disclaiming them because we do not like the numbers, perhaps we should try to do more for the campaign. We are fighting years and years of brainwashing by the MSM. It will be a tough egg to crack.

Not only that, but some people tend to use the wrong approach. Please do not attack anyone, it will only put them on the defensive, and they will not pay attention to what you are saying. Think about it.. When you get called a Paulite/Paulbot, or when someone insults RP directly to you, does that not make some of you angry and make you immediately disregard everything else that they are saying?

[trey4sports]

I know this thread is on the 5th page or so but excuse me...

1) Don't compare poll to poll, compare polling company poll to same polling company poll. The last NYT poll had us at 7% and the one before that had us at 5%. We're going UP

2) Two former front runners are beneath us, Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann. Bachmann has 2% in this poll! Now THAT is something you can't "spin"

3) Ad blitz? How many ads have you seen? I've seen one Ron Paul ad. We (wisely) aren't advertising nationally. We are advertising in the early primary states. That's exactly what we should be doing. And in those states, we are polling at 13% or so. We're doing very well, and if you compare our percentage to those who went on to win four years ago, we are right where we need to be.

4) Have you not seen how quickly three other candidates have surged in this race (only to eventually fall back down)? People are obviously willing to jump on any ship the other are jumping on to. Just wait until people start jumping on our ship....the will....most of the other ships have sunk to the bottom of the sea.

I'm not promising we will win, but we need to keep working hard - the campaign is doing everything they need to be doing. We should do the same. Work hard and expect results.

All great points.


The ad blitz is not nationwide. this is a media blitz in the early 4 states, and on top of that there is always a lag in peoples perceptions and how they are going to vote. It takes a while to go from "unfavorable/not interested" to "voting for." It is a process, and one ad is not going to do enough. It takes multiple exposures to a candidate to get someone to vote for him.

please read what i wrote above. 1 ad is not enough to turn those undecideds to Ron. It is an incremental process. Voters need TV exposure, radio, print, web and plenty of it to go from undecided to voting for. Not only that but the field is fluid right now that even maintaining our position while Cain falls is not a bad thing.


The last Iowa poll I saw ended polling on the 19th, the day Ron's ads STARTED, and the day Cain had his Piers Morgan interview. Is there one since then?

there was one from the University of Iowa that had Ron @ 12% yesterday I believe. It's important to note that it was scientific but at the same time this is not a major pollster so comparing it to other polls is kind of apples to oranges.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?325702-New-scientific-poll-by-Univ.-of-Iowa&highlight=iowa+poll+12%25

Guess that was the same one you were referring to.

[Karsten]

there is absolutely no way that you can spin 8% (behind newt of all people) in late october after spending millions of dollars on multiple ad blitzes in to a good thing. we're in trouble, and the sooner we take notice (or, really, the campaign does) and try to do something about it the better. we need something new in terms of tactics, something revolutionary. something people haven't seen that the media can't ignore. we need to give ron a megaphone just as big as the media's darlings'.

Yeah I'm pretty dissapointed with 8%. After we reached 14% nationally and 16% in Iowa in August, we've gone down, not up. I was hoping and frankly expecting to be in the 20s, but we've fallen back into the single didgits. In retrospect, we really needed to win the Iowa Straw Poll...

[Edmunster]

to the people that are giving up already what the hell is wrong with you. We are fighting a war here, a war of ideas. We must prevail!! Just remember those who had to fight physically from tyranny. We are fortunate that doesnt need to happen anymore. We are in the age of awekening. Look how many people are tired of the corruption infecting our government and corporations. It is perfect timing for freedom to rise from the grave it was slowly put into. "They may take our lives....but they"ll never take our freedom"!!!

[Karsten]

to the people that are giving up already what the hell is wrong with you. We are fighting a war here, a war of ideas. We must prevail!! Just remember those who had to fight physically from tyranny. We are fortunate that doesnt need to happen anymore. We are in the age of awekening. Look how many people are tired of the corruption infecting our government and corporations. It is perfect timing for freedom to rise from the grave it was slowly put into. "They may take our lives....but they"ll never take our freedom"!!!

Oh I'm not giving up by any means... $2000 donated to the campaign in the last week and I spend quite a lot of my time promoting Ron Paul to people. I will until the very end...
I'm just saying I'm starting to feel a lot less optimistic about it than I felt two months ago.