New scientific poll by Univ. of Iowa

[bolidew]

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2011/october/102111Hawk%20Poll%20Topline.pdf

Cain 37 Romney 27 Paul 12

[libertybrewcity]

meh. 12 % is okay. I think our numbers will ultimately be a little more. I wish we would move up. I don't know if the ads are working or what.

[IndianaPolitico]

We need Paul in Iowa as much as possible...

[RKoho]

meh. 12 % is okay. I think our numbers will ultimately be a little more. I wish we would move up. I don't know if the ads are working or what.

I think they're a waste. I'd use the money to hire an army of canvassers. Smart, Paul supporters being paid to go door to door would be effective in my opinion.

[IndianaPolitico]

I think they're a waste. I'd use the money to hire an army of canvassers. Smart, Paul supporters being paid to go door to door would be effective in my opinion.
I have to somewhat agree, door to door is THE best way to get the word out! I hope the campaign is getting them mobilized.

[JohnGalt23g]

Iowa is key, no doubt.

I actually like this poll. We're in a clear third (remember, tradition has it there are three tickets out of Iowa), and most of this was taken before Herman Cain started releasing videos like this:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhm-22Q0PuM&feature=player_embedded


This is a race you don't want to be the frontrunner in. This one isn't going to be won on the first lap.

It'll be won on the last.

[walt]

I think they're a waste. I'd use the money to hire an army of canvassers. Smart, Paul supporters being paid to go door to door would be effective in my opinion.

this would require a campaign manager focusing on the things that matter to win

[VictorB]

How Cain is near 40% is a mystery to me. Its sad to see how clueless and uneducated most voters are. It's rather alarming.

I agree with the idea of having people pound the pavement. That will prove to be the most effective.

[Sola_Fide]

Iowa is key, no doubt.

I actually like this poll. We're in a clear third (remember, tradition has it there are three tickets out of Iowa), and most of this was taken before Herman Cain started releasing videos like this:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhm-22Q0PuM&feature=player_embedded


This is a race you don't want to be the frontrunner in. This one isn't going to be won on the first lap.

It'll be won on the last.

Agree. Slow and steady. We need to keep Ron well funded until the end. Let the other goons fizzle out and endorse Romney.

[1PaulBOT]

I'm surprised Romney is in the top three. I thought he wasn't doing well in Iowa at all. I figured that's why he skipped the forum this week, the Iowa Strawpoll over the summer, and has only appeared in Iowa 3 times. I'm shocked he's get over 25%. We should be at that level by now; I don't get it; why isn't RP polling above 20% yet?

[Esoteric]

Cain's real number is 39%, Romney 29%, and Ron's real number is 10.5%. These were the numbers among "Very Likely" caucus-goers.

[akalucas]

How Cain is near 40% is a mystery to me. Its sad to see how clueless and uneducated most voters are. It's rather alarming.

I agree with the idea of having people pound the pavement. That will prove to be the most effective.

usually people get together on the weekends and talk politics, especially on sundays with the church goers. I think a lot of people changed their mind this weekend in Iowa about Cain. This poll was made before this weekend so I think if cain is still polling at aroudn 37% with this weeks polls, meaning ones that come out next weeke that were taken this week, then we have a big problem. But i believe next week we will see him around 25%, which will be great for us

[PastaRocket848]

Wow that video is encouraging. When did that come out? If something happens and Herman Cain tanks fast, his support has to pick between Ron, frothy, and mittens. It could get real interesting.

[trey4sports]

It will take time for Cain and Mitt to fall, but as we get closer and closer to the Caucus they will fall, but the question is.... will we rise?

[Jandrsn21]

Wow that video is encouraging. When did that come out? If something happens and Herman Cain tanks fast, his support has to pick between Ron, frothy, and mittens. It could get real interesting.

You are right, this could get real interesting!

[RDM]

this would require a campaign manager focusing on the things that matter to win

^^^Yeah, what he said.

[jonhowe]

Paid canvassers are NOT the best option. A lot of times they arent real supporters, and just have a script and a paycheck.

Instead, offer to house/feed REAL volunteer supporters (if that's legal?).

[beardedlinen]

Iowa is key, no doubt.

I actually like this poll. We're in a clear third (remember, tradition has it there are three tickets out of Iowa), and most of this was taken before Herman Cain started releasing videos like this:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhm-22Q0PuM&feature=player_embedded


This is a race you don't want to be the frontrunner in. This one isn't going to be won on the first lap.

It'll be won on the last.

Is this an actual Cain ad? Wow.

[JohnGalt23g]

I think they're a waste. I'd use the money to hire an army of canvassers. Smart, Paul supporters being paid to go door to door would be effective in my opinion.

I've done years of prefessional canvass work, including for Dr Paul last go around. It is the single best method of persuading voters, bar none.

The problem is that in most places, it simply isn't economically feasible. Iowa, even Des Moines, doesn't have the population density to make it work; canvassers spend too much of their time in between houses.

Las Vegas, Reno, Manchester... if you use paid canvassers, do it there.

[JohnGalt23g]

Is this an actual Cain ad? Wow.

I think it is an internet ad... but even so...

[JohnGalt23g]

Paid canvassers are NOT the best option. A lot of times they arent real supporters, and just have a script and a paycheck.

Instead, offer to house/feed REAL volunteer supporters (if that's legal?).

See what I said above.

Who the hell cares whether they are true believers or not, any more than you care if the actors or cameramen filming the ads are true believers. Paid canvassers are professionals. They do what they do because they have been trained to do so, and are good at it.

Believe it or not, you really do get what you pay for.

[Tod]

I think they're a waste. I'd use the money to hire an army of canvassers. Smart, Paul supporters being paid to go door to door would be effective in my opinion.

I think so too. Ads were a lot more effective use of money when everyone only got CBS, NBC, & ABC and that was it; no internet, no ESPN, etc. Now, there are SO MANY different ways for people to be occupied.

[dusman]

Ron Paul's campaign should implement a few things in regards to advertising, IMHO.

1) A very strong online organization utility to manage a state-wide campaigning effort on the ground, similar to what Obama put in place in 2008, except a bit more innovative with the current social networking realm that is available.
2) An ad buy on television and major newspapers in Iowa specifically to promote this utility.. a call to action for supporters on the ground to participate, and
3) An online advertising push at the national level to push for campaign funds in Iowa for the activities the utility would support

This utility should operate as an operational HQ for various efforts, including, but not limited to canvassing, phone banking, tabling, participation within GOP events, and a link-in to the various meetup groups. It should provide a symmetry between telephone, mobile, email, and direct mail.

Just my two cents.

[rgampell]

I think so too. Ads were a lot more effective use of money when everyone only got CBS, NBC, & ABC and that was it; no internet, no ESPN, etc. Now, there are SO MANY different ways for people to be occupied.

Well, you pay for what you get. You might even reach more distinct "eyeballs" by buying time on lots of cheaper networks than buying time on one old-time big network.

I have to say that I totally disagree with the notion that the ads are a waste. For good or bad, Paul's plainspokenness means that he will never get a single "soft" vote. 12% may not be great, but by now it's 12% HARD votes. He is never going to siphon off votes the way another candidate might; instead he needs to knock down each and every line of defense that someone might have against him (he is socially liberal, he is anti-Israel, whatever), and only then will he add another hard vote. I think the best thing the campaign can do is keep lots of ads coming, each of which is designed to knock down one of these walls. (Most of them are very good, I think.) And the best thing we can do is keep paying for them!

[dustinto]

Am I the only one that thought it was odd to show the campaign manager smoking at the end of that Cain ad? I wasn't expecting that.

[Kenso]

Am I the only one that thought it was odd to show the campaign manager smoking at the end of that Cain ad? I wasn't expecting that.

Hahaha...I thought so as well, wtf was all of that? I guess that was Cain's way of saying he's a maverick lol..look, I'll show my campaign manager smoking, even though it would normally be taboo/unacceptable in a campaign ad?!!

[parocks]

I've done years of prefessional canvass work, including for Dr Paul last go around. It is the single best method of persuading voters, bar none.

The problem is that in most places, it simply isn't economically feasible. Iowa, even Des Moines, doesn't have the population density to make it work; canvassers spend too much of their time in between houses.

Las Vegas, Reno, Manchester... if you use paid canvassers, do it there.

Interesting take on the population density.

[rideurlightning]

Iowa is key, no doubt.

I actually like this poll. We're in a clear third (remember, tradition has it there are three tickets out of Iowa), and most of this was taken before Herman Cain started releasing videos like this:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhm-22Q0PuM&feature=player_embedded


This is a race you don't want to be the frontrunner in. This one isn't going to be won on the first lap.

It'll be won on the last.

That video just made my life.

[braane]

That video just made my life.

I think it is going viral though. So even with all of it's gross... it may actually end up being a positive for the campaign.

[parocks]

Ron Paul's campaign should implement a few things in regards to advertising, IMHO.

1) A very strong online organization utility to manage a state-wide campaigning effort on the ground, similar to what Obama put in place in 2008, except a bit more innovative with the current social networking realm that is available.
2) An ad buy on television and major newspapers in Iowa specifically to promote this utility.. a call to action for supporters on the ground to participate, and
3) An online advertising push at the national level to push for campaign funds in Iowa for the activities the utility would support

This utility should operate as an operational HQ for various efforts, including, but not limited to canvassing, phone banking, tabling, participation within GOP events, and a link-in to the various meetup groups. It should provide a symmetry between telephone, mobile, email, and direct mail.

Just my two cents.

The website you're talking about really shouldn't be one you do, or I do, or orenbus does. It really should be awesome, it really should be 100% rock solid, by the best pros in the business.

Good to see you back. Based on a rethink of the BTO rally, it was a bigger victory than I thought at the time. It was smaller than visions of crowds of thousands, but it was 100% pure victory, with the back to back to back pure win. And at such little cost. A great video with Joe and Mika, a retweet by Joe to 100K, and both Joe and Mika saying you guys were nice on Morning Joe. When I stepped back for a second, and looked at all the not so good outcomes that people can plan for months and just crash and burn, this thing was pulled together in 10 days, and it had such a clear, pure victory with no blowback, all positive, it really should be judged higher in the pantheon of grassroots achievements.

[parocks]

that was a crazy video.

[SpicyTurkey]

The best way to convert traditional Republicans is to speak with them directly. Anything else is a waste of time. Though the adds should stay (a reminder that Paul is still in the race).

[IDefendThePlatform]

Speaking of canvassing...

Have we reached the point where it's time to revisit the Liberty House idea yet? Dr Paul has been absolutely at the top of his game, giving as good of interviews and debate performances as anyone could expect, yet our support is only growing at a relatively slow clip. If we are to win Iowa we will need a HUGE surge in the polls over the next 2 months. That's right, 2 months. Jan 3 is 9 short weeks away.

We absolutely must win Iowa or the whole campaign is over. To win Iowa, we need boots on the ground canvassers.

Anyone agree or is there another way to make up all the ground we need over the next 9 weeks?

[parocks]

http://www.loopnet.com/Iowa_Hotels-Motels-For-Sale/

http://www.loopnet.com/lid/16055577 - 500 room hotel in fort dodge for $500K

[Give me liberty]

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2011/october/102111Hawk%20Poll%20Topline.pdf

Cain 37 Romney 27 Paul 12

Just tell me who the heck loves Cain in Iowa? first it was Rick Perry and Now Cain?
and also Cain has been avoiding Iowa.

[IDefendThePlatform]

http://www.loopnet.com/Iowa_Hotels-Motels-For-Sale/

http://www.loopnet.com/lid/16055577 - 500 room hotel in fort dodge for $500K

Damn that's some real estate. If we filled that with activists and hit it hard we would absolutely win Iowa.

Anybody got any money left for this? Any chance revpac or a Larry leopard type well financed supporter would be able to fund this?

[dusman]

The website you're talking about really shouldn't be one you do, or I do, or orenbus does. It really should be awesome, it really should be 100% rock solid, by the best pros in the business.

Good to see you back. Based on a rethink of the BTO rally, it was a bigger victory than I thought at the time. It was smaller than visions of crowds of thousands, but it was 100% pure victory, with the back to back to back pure win. And at such little cost. A great video with Joe and Mika, a retweet by Joe to 100K, and both Joe and Mika saying you guys were nice on Morning Joe. When I stepped back for a second, and looked at all the not so good outcomes that people can plan for months and just crash and burn, this thing was pulled together in 10 days, and it had such a clear, pure victory with no blowback, all positive, it really should be judged higher in the pantheon of grassroots achievements.

I agree with you 100%. In fact, if I had a wishlist on who would take it up something like that, I would suggest these guys in Chicago: http://weareakta.com (http://weareakta.com/#/). John and his team up there are the best I know in the web development/mobile app industry. They are extremely exclusive, but definitely top-notch.

I really appreciate your comments on the Rally. It's too bad there wasn't more time to get it solidly organized, but I have the feeling that if it weren't such rough weather we would have had a much better showing. I felt overall it was a success through the adversity of it all. It was the first time I've been out with a decent size group of Ron Paul supporters thrown out into a generally uninterested populace and it was exciting to see the knowledge pouring out of 20-50 somethings and the interest of people who've never heard of him.

Now, if we can get the footage of our march.. it's something I'd really love for everyone to see. Still working to find out what's going on with that.

Thanks again, parocks. :)

[dusman]

http://www.loopnet.com/Iowa_Hotels-Motels-For-Sale/

http://www.loopnet.com/lid/16055577 - 500 room hotel in fort dodge for $500K

Now that would be an incredible asset to have for the grassroots.

[parocks]

fort dodge is 1 hour 43 minutes from des moines. there should be a lot of synergies with all those people in the same place. If you say "here are the things we need" including video cameras, wireless hotspots, plus computers, and a bunch of people with skills, there could not only be boots on the ground spread out doing GOTV, but any number of things.

[PauliticsPolitics]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhm-22Q0PuM&feature=player_embedded



What?!
That's actually on Herman Cain's official youtube account.
Ridiculous.
Somebody better rip that and take screen shots to show that's on his official youtube.
This should be spread far and wide!
I bet it won't last long - As you see, it's not searchable, maybe an inside joke from his campaign?
Regardless, spread this while it's on his official youtube.
Only 300 views!
(Maybe this is a well known video around here, but this is the first time I stumbled on it, crazy.)

[parocks]

I agree with you 100%. In fact, if I had a wishlist on who would take it up something like that, I would suggest these guys in Chicago: http://weareakta.com (http://weareakta.com/#/). John and his team up there are the best I know in the web development/mobile app industry. They are extremely exclusive, but definitely top-notch.

I really appreciate your comments on the Rally. It's too bad there wasn't more time to get it solidly organized, but I have the feeling that if it weren't such rough weather we would have had a much better showing. I felt overall it was a success through the adversity of it all. It was the first time I've been out with a decent size group of Ron Paul supporters thrown out into a generally uninterested populace and it was exciting to see the knowledge pouring out of 20-50 somethings and the interest of people who've never heard of him.

Now, if we can get the footage of our march.. it's something I'd really love for everyone to see. Still working to find out what's going on with that.

Thanks again, parocks. :)

You're welcome.

I remember you mentioning having 2 cameras, one in a van that was good and one that was zoomed in and therefore a bit shaky. Would be good to have that, yes.

I would say that someone should've picked up on the necessity of getting the nyc liberty hq on board right away. I think that going forward for any on the ground event, one of the first things to do would be to get the local meetup on board asap. If they weren't into it at all, in some future case, it would be tough sledding. If Liberty HQ was gung ho, psyched for a full week before hand, they could've hammered the importance home to everyone. I'm not criticizing them, because they did turn out a lot of people. The whole thing was done in 10 days.

Has the official campaign taken over tea party II?

Because if it was me, I'd skip the fighting over whether it's veterans day or bring the troops home or support the troops or whatever, and focus on tea party II.

[sailingaway]

What makes this poll scientific?

--
edit -- looking at the poll, the last day of polling was the 19th, so it was before the ads started.

I'm thinking it was also the day or the day before Cain had his abortion flip flop problem.

[PauliticsPolitics]

What makes this poll scientific?

--
edit -- looking at the poll, the last day of polling was the 19th, so it was before the ads started.

I'm thinking it was also the day or the day before Cain had his abortion flip flop problem.

I don't know why people throw around the word "scientific" so freely.
After reading the poll's methodology, their description doesn't reek of unusual amounts science.


A household sample was acquired of households in each of Iowa’s five Congressional districts. An initial attempt was made on answering the phone to reach the “youngest male who is 18 years or older.” Alternatively, a female age 18 or older was interviewed. All who stated they were over age 18 and willing to participate in the survey were included.

Regardless, it is a poll and it seems like it was done with at least some care.
It at least shows that we have a lot of work in Iowa still.

[dusman]

You're welcome.

I remember you mentioning having 2 cameras, one in a van that was good and one that was zoomed in and therefore a bit shaky. Would be good to have that, yes.

I would say that someone should've picked up on the necessity of getting the nyc liberty hq on board right away. I think that going forward for any on the ground event, one of the first things to do would be to get the local meetup on board asap. If they weren't into it at all, in some future case, it would be tough sledding. If Liberty HQ was gung ho, psyched for a full week before hand, they could've hammered the importance home to everyone. I'm not criticizing them, because they did turn out a lot of people. The whole thing was done in 10 days.

Has the official campaign taken over tea party II?

Because if it was me, I'd skip the fighting over whether it's veterans day or bring the troops home or support the troops or whatever, and focus on tea party II.

Yeah the footage from the ground is pretty rough. I'd say it's almost un-salvageable. Hoping to get the other footage soon.

Liberty HQ is doing some really good stuff. I got in touch with RonPaulHawaii almost immediately, once I jumped onto it. It's too bad there was 3 or 4 days there that was wasted that could have given them more opportunity to organize around the tight time table.

Tea Party II.. I'm not sure where the campaign is on that one, but we should consider working on it behind the scenes and get it prepped for deployment, for sure.

[kusok]

After reading the forum for a while it looks like Iowa or bust, amirite?

What can we in other states do aside from donating and spreading the word? Shouldn't we address people of Iowa on various forums? etc

[bluesc]

What makes this poll scientific?

--
edit -- looking at the poll, the last day of polling was the 19th, so it was before the ads started.

I'm thinking it was also the day or the day before Cain had his abortion flip flop problem.

That is the only way to come out of seeing this poll not feeling completely discouraged. We need to see the poll numbers going up soon. This is when Huckabee started moving up.

With the ads and the media coverage, we should move up. The Hannity interview could have given him a good boost if he would have handled it well.

[Karsten]

Well at least we're holding steady in Iowa. Slight drop nationwide, though.
It's all Iowa, 100%. Win and everybody will be shocked and take a second look at him. Lose and it's over.

[Karsten]

meh. 12 % is okay. I think our numbers will ultimately be a little more. I wish we would move up. I don't know if the ads are working or what.

TURNOUT. (And hopefully a blizzard).

Will those ads increase support by 20%? I hope so.

[Karsten]

That is the only way to come out of seeing this poll not feeling completely discouraged. We need to see the poll numbers going up soon. This is when Huckabee started moving up.

With the ads and the media coverage, we should move up. The Hannity interview could have given him a good boost if he would have handled it well.

Where was Huckabee polling at this point?
Also what was he polling right before the caucus.
As I recall, people thought Romney would win, not him.
Obama's win in Iowa also took people by surprise, if I believe.

[Fr0m_3ur0pe]

TURNOUT. (And hopefully a blizzard).

Will those ads increase support by 20%? I hope so.

What if they won't? I's a disaster for us.

[bluesc]

Where was Huckabee polling at this point?
Also what was he polling right before the caucus.
As I recall, people thought Romney would win, not him.
Obama's win in Iowa also took people by surprise, if I believe.

Poll of the exact same date in '07 by the same pollster showed Huckabee at 12.8%. Shot up to 30% pre-caucus.

[rich34]

I wonder if Ron and Rand can do a bus tour in Iowa, or NH? NH would be easy to cover due to the size of the state, but I'm not sure how much we're going to pull those voters away from Romney. Rand could really help in Iowa especially since he's the only senator that's doing what the conservative base wants.

[IndianaPolitico]

I wonder if Ron and Rand can do a bus tour in Iowa, or NH? NH would be easy to cover due to the size of the state, but I'm not sure how much we're going to pull those voters away from Romney. Rand could really help in Iowa especially since he's the only senator that's doing what the conservative base wants.
I think a bus tour with the familiy in Iowa would be huge. Getting out and meeting the voters always works well.

[rich34]

What if they won't? I's a disaster for us.

What else can you do then? The ads is the best way to reach people. I think Ron needs to do an ad touting his veteran credentials. Maybe do that with an intro ad touting his family about how he's been married to the same woman for 54 years, has 6 children, and one recently became a U.S senator, etc.... was an Air Force Veteran. That would be great imo. Definitely would blow all the others away. No one has a resume like Ron's, he might as well use it to his advantage and let the people know!

[affa]

people, stop saying 'it's over' if we don't win Iowa. it's over when we take the white house. and it certainly isn't over as long as Ron Paul is in the running.

[parocks]

I agree with you 100%. In fact, if I had a wishlist on who would take it up something like that, I would suggest these guys in Chicago: http://weareakta.com (http://weareakta.com/#/). John and his team up there are the best I know in the web development/mobile app industry. They are extremely exclusive, but definitely top-notch.

I really appreciate your comments on the Rally. It's too bad there wasn't more time to get it solidly organized, but I have the feeling that if it weren't such rough weather we would have had a much better showing. I felt overall it was a success through the adversity of it all. It was the first time I've been out with a decent size group of Ron Paul supporters thrown out into a generally uninterested populace and it was exciting to see the knowledge pouring out of 20-50 somethings and the interest of people who've never heard of him.

Now, if we can get the footage of our march.. it's something I'd really love for everyone to see. Still working to find out what's going on with that.

Thanks again, parocks. :)


Mitt has a social network now. Built on Drupal.

http://www.mittromney.com/action

[michaelkellenger]

Anybody making the argument that these polls are wrong in general are stupid. Plain and simple. Look at last time around, you were the same people making the same claims. We always preformed right around our poll numbers, in many cases worse than our poll numbers. Stop denying reality you nut balls. Work hard instead of saying, "oh these numbers cannot be right." What a friggin joke you people seriously are.