CaptUSA
10-21-2011, 12:25 PM
I hope I’ve earned the right to use my 1000th post to describe Ron Paul’s inevitable path to the GOP nomination as I see it. In addition, I’d like to issue an admonishment to those that get excited and end up doing more harm than good to the liberty movement.
First, I believe Ron Paul is winning the larger debate. Hands down. They are all talking about his issues. When they discuss the Fed, it’s Ron Paul that leads the way. When they talk about individual liberty, they parrot Paul. When the issue is State’s rights, they all light their candle with Ron Paul’s flame. The only disagreement (in their stated positions, at least) is foreign policy and he is still driving the discussion. The other candidates are merely trying to explain their reasoning why people should be fearful of Paul’s position. The public in general is supportive of Paul here, but they are understandably afraid. After all, they have been scared by the media for 10 years.
So already, the debate is taking place on Paul’s home field. It is obvious to any unbiased observer that Ron Paul is winning the debate. The only question is why this isn’t translating into better poll numbers for Paul. Well, since everyone has adopted nearly all of his stances, the electorate is searching for the one who can “beat Obama”. The frontrunner, Romney, is merely a placeholder for that mentality – people think he can win because he speaks well and looks “Presidential”. His support has never topped a 3rd of the primary voters. Another 25% of the electorate is searching for anyone other than Romney. Currently, Herman Cain is holding onto most of these folks – not because they think he’s great, but because they think he could win – and he’s not Romney. This 25% will go to whoever looks like the anti-Romney at the time of the primaries. Then, there’s the 10-15% for Paul and finally the 30%-35% that’s just waiting to see what happens.
You can see the timing of this is crucial. The Paul camp has played this well. People merely need a reason to vote for Paul and someone to tell them it’s ok and Paul will win the primaries. Cain is falling. You may not see it in the polls, yet, but it is happening. His support is getting real soft, but until there’s another viable alternative, they’ll stick around. This is why we must be that alternative. Eventually, someone influential will come out and support Paul – this will make others feel like it’s ok to vote for him. Then he will do well in Iowa – this will give him credibility. The media will slowly begin to acknowledge him. Then he’ll do well in New Hampshire and it will be game over. People will accept Paul as the anti-Romney and he’ll take the nomination. (The establishment may run a 3rd party after this, but we can cross that bridge when we come to it.)
So here’s my admonishment. Quit trying to destroy the other candidates. None of their support is as strong as Paul’s and they will be found out in due time. That’s not to say you should let them off the hook, but remember that we need to pick up that support as they lose it. Simply point out why you like Paul and leave it at that. Do not argue with someone as to why their decision is stupid – how do you like that? Don’t go to battle with the Cain folks. Don’t battle with anyone (except maybe the media). We need people to believe that Ron Paul can win. You have to be the one to tell them that it’s ok to support Dr. Paul. They want to, but they’re scared. They don’t think he can win or their afraid of his foreign policy. If you spend your time arguing with them why their guy is bad and why they’re not as smart as you, you will push them away. While this may make you feel superior in winning an argument, you are pushing their support away. It makes the path harder to achieve. What good is winning a battle if the war is lost?
When confronted with a person who is afraid or is already hardened against Paul’s stances, don’t try to change their minds. Simply refer to personality and character issues like Dr. Paul being an honest family man and not in the pocket of any special interest. That should suffice to get them to accept him later on down the line.
We are going to win this thing! Don’t blow it. Most of the cards are stacked in our favor. Sure, we won’t get the media until we’ve already got it in the bank. They work for the establishment, what would you expect of them? Let your frustration turn to energy for your fight. 2012 is ours! Liberty is stronger than force. Thank you all for your steadfastness in this pursuit. You are all Patriots!
First, I believe Ron Paul is winning the larger debate. Hands down. They are all talking about his issues. When they discuss the Fed, it’s Ron Paul that leads the way. When they talk about individual liberty, they parrot Paul. When the issue is State’s rights, they all light their candle with Ron Paul’s flame. The only disagreement (in their stated positions, at least) is foreign policy and he is still driving the discussion. The other candidates are merely trying to explain their reasoning why people should be fearful of Paul’s position. The public in general is supportive of Paul here, but they are understandably afraid. After all, they have been scared by the media for 10 years.
So already, the debate is taking place on Paul’s home field. It is obvious to any unbiased observer that Ron Paul is winning the debate. The only question is why this isn’t translating into better poll numbers for Paul. Well, since everyone has adopted nearly all of his stances, the electorate is searching for the one who can “beat Obama”. The frontrunner, Romney, is merely a placeholder for that mentality – people think he can win because he speaks well and looks “Presidential”. His support has never topped a 3rd of the primary voters. Another 25% of the electorate is searching for anyone other than Romney. Currently, Herman Cain is holding onto most of these folks – not because they think he’s great, but because they think he could win – and he’s not Romney. This 25% will go to whoever looks like the anti-Romney at the time of the primaries. Then, there’s the 10-15% for Paul and finally the 30%-35% that’s just waiting to see what happens.
You can see the timing of this is crucial. The Paul camp has played this well. People merely need a reason to vote for Paul and someone to tell them it’s ok and Paul will win the primaries. Cain is falling. You may not see it in the polls, yet, but it is happening. His support is getting real soft, but until there’s another viable alternative, they’ll stick around. This is why we must be that alternative. Eventually, someone influential will come out and support Paul – this will make others feel like it’s ok to vote for him. Then he will do well in Iowa – this will give him credibility. The media will slowly begin to acknowledge him. Then he’ll do well in New Hampshire and it will be game over. People will accept Paul as the anti-Romney and he’ll take the nomination. (The establishment may run a 3rd party after this, but we can cross that bridge when we come to it.)
So here’s my admonishment. Quit trying to destroy the other candidates. None of their support is as strong as Paul’s and they will be found out in due time. That’s not to say you should let them off the hook, but remember that we need to pick up that support as they lose it. Simply point out why you like Paul and leave it at that. Do not argue with someone as to why their decision is stupid – how do you like that? Don’t go to battle with the Cain folks. Don’t battle with anyone (except maybe the media). We need people to believe that Ron Paul can win. You have to be the one to tell them that it’s ok to support Dr. Paul. They want to, but they’re scared. They don’t think he can win or their afraid of his foreign policy. If you spend your time arguing with them why their guy is bad and why they’re not as smart as you, you will push them away. While this may make you feel superior in winning an argument, you are pushing their support away. It makes the path harder to achieve. What good is winning a battle if the war is lost?
When confronted with a person who is afraid or is already hardened against Paul’s stances, don’t try to change their minds. Simply refer to personality and character issues like Dr. Paul being an honest family man and not in the pocket of any special interest. That should suffice to get them to accept him later on down the line.
We are going to win this thing! Don’t blow it. Most of the cards are stacked in our favor. Sure, we won’t get the media until we’ve already got it in the bank. They work for the establishment, what would you expect of them? Let your frustration turn to energy for your fight. 2012 is ours! Liberty is stronger than force. Thank you all for your steadfastness in this pursuit. You are all Patriots!