IowaCaucus.com:"What’s Ahead" (Paul is Iowa favorite!)

[PauliticsPolitics]

Great article for us on IowaCaucus.com!
All about how Ron is leading Iowa, consistently.
http://iowacaucus.com/2011/10/20/whats-ahead-whos-leading-depends-on-what-you-measure/
(http://iowacaucus.com/2011/10/20/whats-ahead-whos-leading-depends-on-what-you-measure/)
A snippet, but the whole thing is really good:

Herman Cain may be the flavor-of-the-month in the 2012 Republican presidential nomination race, but Texas Rep. Ron Paul is the one candidate who consistently polls in double-digits in Iowa, has received more itemized individual contributions from Iowans than any other candidate in the field, and has more endorsements from the state’s GOP central committee than any other candidate in the race, according to none other than Gov. Terry Branstad.
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[Karsten]

Oh my God we're going to win for sure it's all over but the shouting this game is in the refrigerator!!!!!!!!!

[Karsten]

^^NOT! Yes our support is stronger and more consistent than any other candidate, and we could win, but it's wrong to think we're the frontrunner. We have a lot of work to do. Thinking we're going to win when the current poll numbers are not suggestive of this means we fall into the same trap of 2007-2008 (oh, the polls must be wrong... whops). We need to raise our poll numbers to the solid 20s by caucus time to stand a chance with a good RP turnout.

[Lord Xar]

I know alot of Iowans, politicians, have endorsed Ron Paul - but does the common lay-voter know this?

Also, if he is winning, why is he polling 3rd? I am not downgrading this, but I remember in NH alot of people were so exciting because the word on the ground was that Ron was winning, he ended up coming in 5th.

Is the Paul campaign using all those endorsements and promoting that? Seems that would weigh heavily on the older votes more prone to get their news from the T.V/print.

[eleganz]

^^^^ I hope so man...we need to use our endorsements.



everything should be a reminder to keep pushing, we should never try less hard because of good news.

[Karsten]

I am not downgrading this, but I remember in NH alot of people were so exciting because the word on the ground was that Ron was winning, he ended up coming in 5th.


The 2008 NH primary was like the worst night of my life lol. People were so amazingly overconfident in here. But honestly, what was the "word on the ground", other than rumors from passionate RP supporters with no actual evidence to back it up?

[anaconda]

Ron is leading Iowa, consistently.


Not according to this...

http://www.thestatecolumn.com/articles/ron-paul-takes-third-in-2012-iowa-gop-caucus-poll/

[crhoades]

The 2008 NH primary was like the worst night of my life lol. People were so amazingly overconfident in here. But honestly, what was the "word on the ground", other than rumors from passionate RP supporters with no actual evidence to back it up?
Were you at the party in NH ballroom the night of the party? My friend and I was in NH for the days leading up to the primary canvassing and working the phones etc. Was there for the Hannity snow ball moment. It was such a rush that week. RonStock! and then that night was like a big, let down. I gotta admit i think my idealism was killed that night. Still active, still donate, but probably not as passionately as '07. I don't see how Dr. Paul has kept up all of these years. His sense of calling and character are something else!

[bluesc]

We are far from winning Iowa. We will see who is serious about winning there now based on who is contacting Iowans and who is trying to convince the OWS people who will have absolutely no effect on the nomination process.

[CaptainAmerica]

http://andreaseeger.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/bring-it.gif

[PauliticsPolitics]

We are far from winning Iowa. We will see who is serious about winning there now based on who is contacting Iowans and who is trying to convince the OWS people who will have absolutely no effect on the nomination process.
Yea, I didn't post this to suggest that Iowa is easy.
We need an organized flood of the caucuses.

[sailingaway]

Great article for us on IowaCaucus.com!
All about how Ron is leading Iowa, consistently.
http://iowacaucus.com/2011/10/20/whats-ahead-whos-leading-depends-on-what-you-measure/
(http://iowacaucus.com/2011/10/20/whats-ahead-whos-leading-depends-on-what-you-measure/)
A snippet, but the whole thing is really good:

No comments there yet... Gotta login.

Great article, thanks for posting! +rep

[RDM]

Whatever ground support we have there better be covering every square inch of Iowa. We are far from winning looking at the polls.

[PauliticsPolitics]

FYI: IowaCaucus.com is the first result that comes up in Google if you search "Iowa Caucus" (besides wikipedia) - it turns out that this news site is run by a teaming up The Gazette (Ceder Rapids newspaper) and KCRG-TV9 (Local Cedar Rapids TV).
This makes me wonder: should we focus more energy getting local news on our side, alot of these outfits (like The Gazette) are still independent from the strangle of the big MSM corporations.

[PauliticsPolitics]

Whatever ground support we have there better be covering every square inch of Iowa. We are far from winning looking at the polls.
Agreed, on the day of the Caucus, there are actually 1784 mini-caucus (one for each precinct.) We need to flood every precinct with organization.
I am hoping our Iowa supporters are on top of the process.

[Carole]

It will be imperative that people show up for the caucus. All those young students on Christmas break. Sure hope the organizers in Iowa are prepared for an early caucus or whatever develops.

[Carole]

I know alot of Iowans, politicians, have endorsed Ron Paul - but does the common lay-voter know this?

Also, if he is winning, why is he polling 3rd? I am not downgrading this, but I remember in NH alot of people were so exciting because the word on the ground was that Ron was winning, he ended up coming in 5th.

Is the Paul campaign using all those endorsements and promoting that? Seems that would weigh heavily on the older votes more prone to get their news from the T.V/print.

Xar:
Back in the 2008 campaign, I was called once on a Republican poll. They said they had several questions to ask me. Fine said I. The first question was who would I vote for and they listed the candidates. When I answered Ron Paul, they hung up immediately. I was never called again. :)

Does that help? :D

[SpicyTurkey]

That just means we need to work even harder.

[ItsTime]

If Iowa is anything like New Hampshire, where there is over 3/4 of republicans UNDECIDED. We can win in Iowa and New Hampshire. Make phone calls, get boots on the ground work work work work!

Having those endorsements are huge. Who do you think all those reps are talking about when the topic of presidential politics comes up? RON PAUL. What they say holds a lot of weight in LOCAL politics.

[european]

I know alot of Iowans, politicians, have endorsed Ron Paul - but does the common lay-voter know this?

Also, if he is winning, why is he polling 3rd? I am not downgrading this, but I remember in NH alot of people were so exciting because the word on the ground was that Ron was winning, he ended up coming in 5th.

Is the Paul campaign using all those endorsements and promoting that? Seems that would weigh heavily on the older votes more prone to get their news from the T.V/print.

+1

[Fr0m_3ur0pe]

I suggest..

OCCUPY IOWA LOCAL MEDIA

[walt]

I know alot of Iowans, politicians, have endorsed Ron Paul - but does the common lay-voter know this?

Also, if he is winning, why is he polling 3rd? I am not downgrading this, but I remember in NH alot of people were so exciting because the word on the ground was that Ron was winning, he ended up coming in 5th.

Is the Paul campaign using all those endorsements and promoting that? Seems that would weigh heavily on the older votes more prone to get their news from the T.V/print.

Certainly this wasn't mentioned by Ron at last night's event on cspan and Jesse Benton certainly didn't have any of them in attendance recognizing and thanking them.

[djruden]

http://iowaindependent.com/62214/iowa-2012-gop-presidential-power-rankings-the-caucus-race-is-not-getting-any-clearer

Ron Paul = #1 in Iowa. I don't trust the polls done by CNN or some other news organization with no boots on the ground in Iowa. Iowa Independent is an organization IN iowa and I even met a staff photographer last night at the Paul Rally at the University. I trust their estimation of polling much more than someone that isn't here. I saw one poll say Cain had 32% support in Iowa. That is WRONG. I haven't met a single person that supports him, seen a single sign, or a single sticker.

[lucent]

Well, polls are done of likely GOP voters. A lot of Ron Paul supporters aren't likely GOP voters. Getting them out to vote is the key.

[South Park Fan]

Take these rankings with a grain of salt. The same organization overestimated (http://forums.anandtech.com/archive/index.php/t-125692.html) our performance by two places last go-around.

[PauliticsPolitics]

Take these rankings with a grain of salt. The same organization overestimated (http://forums.anandtech.com/archive/index.php/t-125692.html) our performance by two places last go-around.
This article is not only advancing Paul because of the power-rankings, that is one of several things they mention.
But, one should take everything with a grain of salt - However, it is better when the salt blows in our direction; and local media like this seems to give RP a fairer shake.

[cero]

Take these rankings with a grain of salt. The same organization overestimated (http://forums.anandtech.com/archive/index.php/t-125692.html) our performance by two places last go-around.

look at the caucus results
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Republican_caucuses,_2008
there was a tie for 3rd place, we were 3000 votes away, with a total of 119,188 votes cast.
those rankings were spot on. Think of it like this, instead of a tie for 3rd like in 2008 there might be a tie for 1st this go around, and if we fucking lose 1st by a couple of thousand votes..... well

[South Park Fan]

look at the caucus results
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Republican_caucuses,_2008
there was a tie for 3rd place, we were 3000 votes away, with a total of 119,188 votes cast.
those rankings were spot on. Think of it like this, instead of a tie for 3rd like in 2008 there might be a tie for 1st this go around, and if we fucking lose 1st by a couple of thousand votes..... well

You and I might realize the literal insignificance of a virtual tie. However, the media makes what may by the margin of a molehill into a landslide on a mountain. Paul cannot afford to lose Iowa this time; if Romney wins, then he will have huge momentum from winning the first two contests; if any other candidate wins, they will become the conservative alternative to Romney, leaving Paul no room to compete.

[PauliticsPolitics]

Wow, I just realized that this post was put on the front page of RPF! I've never had a thread promoted to cover story before. Yay. Thanks to whichever mod did that!

[Sean]

We seem to be polling third and that is where I think we are in Iowa right now. Hopefully this new ad buy will help. We better start climbing soon I think we need to be at about 18% by the end of November.

[Endthefednow]

Sorry to burst everyone`s bubble but we need to have at least 30% in Iowa. Ron Paul needs to win 1st place if he comes in 2 or 3rd
it will be game over for Ron. :eek: