Iowa: Cain 28% Romney 21% Paul 10% (Rasmussen)

[ronpaultag]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/2012_iowa_republican_caucus


Thursday, October 20, 2011

Reflecting national trends, businessman Herman Cain has now jumped to the front of the Republican pack in Iowa.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa caucus-goers shows that Cain is in front with 28% followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 21%. Congressman Ron Paul is a distant third at 10% followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9%, Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann at 8%, and Texas Governor Rick Perry at 7%. The sixth place finish for Perry is a sharp decline from early September when Perry was the frontrunner both nationally and in Iowa. (To see survey question wording, click here).

Former Senator Rick Santorum picks up 4% of the vote and former Governor Jon Huntsman is at 2%. Another 4% would prefer some other candidate and 8% are not sure.

Only one-third of the caucus-goers (32%) are certain of their vote and don’t expect to change their mind. Among these voters, 30% prefer Cain, 22% Romney, and 17% Paul.

Among those absolutely certain they will show up and participate in the caucus, Cain leads Romney 31% to 18%. Many have criticized the Cain campaign for not having a strong organization in Iowa which is seen as essential to turning out the vote. According to such conventional analysis, Cain might be at risk of raising expectations too high and then underperforming.

[trey4sports]

mods, title change por favor?

[sadam]

As an Iowan I just find it hard to believe where this 28% of Cain support is.

[Jeremy]

As an Iowan I just find it hard to believe where this 28% of Cain support is.

It's the "we don't really like anyone, so we'll go with the guy we don't know much about, but speaks pretty well" vote.

[JamesButabi]

As an Iowan I just find it hard to believe where this 28% of Cain support is.

With 30% certain they will not change their minds......

[botounami]

Grr...I want him higher. Just need 15% or more and I think we can break through. How do we get there?

[D.A.S.]

Grr...I want him higher. Just need 15% or more and I think we can break through. How do we get there?

Run NEWSPAPER ads there!! I've been saying this for a while.

[InTradePro]

As an Iowan I just find it hard to believe where this 28% of Cain support is.

20% of them are watching the TV and not thinking for themself.

[69360]

20% of them are watching the TV and not thinking for themself.

That's it. Cain should have been smeared all over msm after that debate and all his next day flip flops. If he was he would have sunk like a stone.

[specsaregood]

It's the "we don't really like anyone, so we'll go with the guy we don't know much about, but speaks pretty well" vote.

You'll know cain is an actual threat to win the moment Romney starts attacking him.

[Badger Paul]

Those who are in the state say Paul has by far the best organization and most dedicated supporters.

Cain has no organization in Iowa and has hardly been to the state

So we'll see if it's still true if organization and appearances still matter in Iowa.

Rasmussen probably polled this the way one polled a primary. You can't poll a caucus that way.

[brushfire]

You'll know cain is an actual threat to win the moment Romney starts attacking him.

What if that never happens? I think Cain is happy being Romney's "mini-me", and Romney seems to be quite friendly with Cain.

[IDefendThePlatform]

Another Iowa opinion, I think Cain's support is soft. That 30% is overstated. People just say they're sure sometimes even when they really aren't.


We need to stay on offense against Cain and Romney. They're both big government, pro-bailout liberals and if we can get the truth out there Iowans will dump them and come our way. But if Romney were to win Iowa, that might wrap up the nomination for him before it even starts. Cuz that would probably guarantee him New Hampshire and Nevada, and then he'd just roll from there. WE NEED TO WIN IOWA.

[specsaregood]

What if that never happens? I think Cain is happy being Romney's "mini-me", and Romney seems to be quite friendly with Cain.

It will be because Romney knows he isn't a threat, cain is just providing cover for him.

[gaetano]

As an Iowan I just find it hard to believe where this 28% of Cain support is.

Christo-Ziotards....LimbaughTards....Hannitards...Levintar ds....and Becktards

That's a very big coalition!

[TonySutton]

From the article (you have to read down a bit)


Only one-third of the caucus-goers (32%) are certain of their vote and don’t expect to change their mind. Among these voters, 30% prefer Cain, 22% Romney, and 17% Paul.

add to this that it is a Ramussen poll and the numbers look pretty good.

[Badger Paul]

"WE NEED TO WIN IOWA. "

Yes.

[erowe1]

Grr...I want him higher. Just need 15% or more and I think we can break through. How do we get there?

Donate to the campaign.

Do phone-from-home.

[RDM]

Run NEWSPAPER ads there!! I've been saying this for a while.

I'm with you. I've been preaching this in previous posts. The campaign has to pepper local newspapers with ads in areas we have weak support. It's not like these ads in these local papers cost a arm and a leg. Plus the 40+ age demographic avidly read newspapers. These are the folks we need to get the message out to especially seniors. Everybody is so caught up in this high tech craze of internet campaigning which is good for hitting certain demographics. But newspapers are still read by those not computer savvy.

[69360]

Christo-Ziotards....LimbaughTards....Hannitards...Levintar ds....and Becktards

That's a very big coalition!

Hannity and Rush don't like Cain.

[blakjak]

Christo-Ziotards....LimbaughTards....Hannitards...Levintar ds....and Becktards

That's a very big coalition!

Yes, childish name-calling is certainly the best way to advance the movement?

They are just people who have not been enlightened yet by the idea of true liberty.

[Karsten]

I don't mean to be a pessimist around here but I'm pretty dissapointed with the way the polls have been going in Iowa. After reaching 16% in August and coming a close second in the straw poll, I didn't expect to be third next to a non-contender (romney), who had already wrote-off iowa, and the 5th place finisher, cain. I was kind of hoping to be in the 20's already.

Also, what the heck happened to the "certain who you are voting for" category?? We were KILLING that category in August!

[RP4Peace]

I don't mean to be a pessimist around here but I'm pretty dissapointed with the way the polls have been going in Iowa. After reaching 16% in August and coming a close second in the straw poll, I didn't expect to be third next to a non-contender (romney), who had already wrote-off iowa, and the 5th place finisher, cain. I was kind of hoping to be in the 20's already.

Also, what the heck happened to the "certain who you are voting for" category?? We were KILLING that category in August!

This is a big bad news and very depressed after seeing this :(

Cain...??? WTF?:confused:

[IndianaPolitico]

This is a big bad news and very depressed after seeing this :(

Cain...??? WTF?:confused:
We can bring our numbers up...
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?317029-Ron-Paul-Phone-from-Home-Program

[EBounding]

Christo-Ziotards....LimbaughTards....Hannitards...Levintar ds....and Becktards

That's a very big coalition!


Insulting voters doesn't help. I wasn't convinced to vote for Paul because I was called a LimbaughTard or a Christo-Ziotard by someone on the internet. In fact, it was name calling like this that turned me off to him for so long. I figured "Paul's supporters act like the radical left, so he's probably just another leftist". Fortunately, I found out on my own that Paul gets the most military support and has had the most consistent message for over 30 years.

There's probably some Cain supporters on here reading the comments to see what we think about him. When their beliefs or character are insulted (directly or indirectly), they're going to be completely turned off to Paul's message. When they're insulted by a Paul supporter, it validates their belief that Paul is "crazy" because his supporters act crazy.

Whenever we post something on the internet about the campaign we should ask ourselves, "Would Ron Paul approve this message?" I know it's hard to do sometimes; I'm guilty of going overboard myself. But we're simply the face of the campaign, especially on the internet.

[HOLLYWOOD]

"WE NEED TO WIN IOWA. "

Yes.You don't win by renting a meeting room at the Holiday Inn Express with a "Come To Me:" philosophy... You want to garner new voters, new supporters, new listeners. You go where the people are in each metro area... VFW halls, Dances, Parades, sporting events, City Halls, Malls, Shows, Newspapers, Radio etc.

[Esoteric]

It's the "we don't really like anyone, so we'll go with the guy we don't know much about, but speaks pretty well" vote.

The fact that this vote still wins it is pretty discouraging.

[akalucas]

Cain is on Hannity right now. Let's hope he fumbles some more

[1836]

Cain has no organization in Iowa.

[dirtfarmerz]

Why are some people depressed about the Rassmussen poll numbers so far? Look at where we were in 2007! Also check out the part of the Rassmussen poll that shows people who are certain of their choice. These people make up 32% of the people polled and Paul is at 17% with these people. :D

The Paul campaign is starting their media blitz with the money we have sent them. They are already have the most organized campaign in Iowa. I think his numbers should only go up, right? There are 68% Iowa residents who have yet to firmly decide on a candidate. :)

[PaulConventionWV]

We can bring our numbers up...
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?317029-Ron-Paul-Phone-from-Home-Program

But after so many good debate performances and ads running in the early states... what's the deal? We haven't improved at all. You'd think with us doing so well we would gain a little, but no, Cain gets all the glory for his stupidity.

Seriously, what's the deal? I am getting frustrated.

[sailingaway]

They were up and media torpedoed them with Cain. Surely you saw the Black THIS Out video on it.

We can only do what we can do, but if we can't do it with Ron...

Now is the time.

[RDM]

Cain has no organization in Iowa.

Obviously with his poll numbers, he doesn't need it. He's got Fox news campaigning for him.

[Brett85]

But after so many good debate performances and ads running in the early states... what's the deal? We haven't improved at all. You'd think with us doing so well we would gain a little, but no, Cain gets all the glory for his stupidity.

Seriously, what's the deal? I am getting frustrated.

The ads have been great, but the debate performances haven't been. If Ron's debate performances were at the same level as his ads, he probably would be at 20% in the polls. But Ron still hasn't seemed to take the advice of his debate coaches. He hasn't learned that he has to become more like Rand and do more to appeal to the conservative base of the Republican Party.

[PaulConventionWV]

The ads have been great, but the debate performances haven't been. If Ron's debate performances were at the same level as his ads, he probably would be at 20% in the polls. But Ron still hasn't seemed to take the advice of his debate coaches. He hasn't learned that he has to become more like Rand and do more to appeal to the conservative base of the Republican Party.

Or is he simply incapable? You know... old dog new tricks?

We just had a super economic plan, ads have been running fundraising is great... but we've been at the same damn 10% for months and months. In 2007 we were gaining throughout the season, but all of a sudden, Ron's base isn't expanding, even though things like facebook likes suggest that he should be... but still the damn polls are always so disappointing. I'm beginning to think either we've maxed out our base, or the media and phony pollsters simply won't let us gain.

[69360]

The ads have been great, but the debate performances haven't been. If Ron's debate performances were at the same level as his ads, he probably would be at 20% in the polls. But Ron still hasn't seemed to take the advice of his debate coaches. He hasn't learned that he has to become more like Rand and do more to appeal to the conservative base of the Republican Party.

If they all keep bickering like a bunch of grade school kids at the debates and Ron stays Ron, he rises above it all and looks presidential.

[Carole]

Looks as though _omney is thinking of Cain and that southern voting block. :D

Possible V-P choice for Romney?

[Carole]

I thought Romney was unpopular in Iowa.

[matt0611]

I can't wait for the Herman Cain bubble to pop. I'm hoping that will put us into 2nd place position behind Romney.

[Carole]

Still two months remaing for Cain to implode. Did he peak too soon?

[Carole]

Door to door, too.

[chadhb]

I can't wait for the Herman Cain bubble to pop. I'm hoping that will put us into 2nd place position behind Romney.

Isn't that being a little niave, when Paul announced he was running 3rd at the debates, Cain magically propelled to top tier, pushing Paul back. Let's be realistic here, they will never allow Paul to poll in 2nd. Just like McCain who was magically propelled to the top.
I'm still unclear why the poster boy Mitt Romney, is not getting the nod once again this cycle. But basic logic tells me, he is too clean, even though Mitt is a Globalist and willing to sell his soul to Israel, he still is too clean to be blackmailed.

[nobody's_hero]

Why don't these ****ers at Rasmussen ever call me?

[mosquitobite]

Isn't that being a little niave, when Paul announced he was running 3rd at the debates, Cain magically propelled to top tier, pushing Paul back. Let's be realistic here, they will never allow Paul to poll in 2nd. Just like McCain who was magically propelled to the top.
I'm still unclear why the poster boy Mitt Romney, is not getting the nod once again this cycle. But basic logic tells me, he is too clean, even though Mitt is a Globalist and willing to sell his soul to Israel, he still is too clean to be blackmailed.

Mitt is getting the nod. Make no mistake about it.

All the others are pretending to be anti-establishment to divide the votes so that Romney will take the primaries.

[Carole]

Iowans really like contact with candidates. Dr. Paul knows he needs to reach out to the people.

Seems to me a lot of voters really appreciated that Dr. Paul's people were going door to door and talking with them and giving them DVD's and literature last time (2007-08).

This is very important that people from the campaign reach out to them.

[Brett85]

Or is he simply incapable? You know... old dog new tricks?

We just had a super economic plan, ads have been running fundraising is great... but we've been at the same damn 10% for months and months. In 2007 we were gaining throughout the season, but all of a sudden, Ron's base isn't expanding, even though things like facebook likes suggest that he should be... but still the damn polls are always so disappointing. I'm beginning to think either we've maxed out our base, or the media and phony pollsters simply won't let us gain.

I think a lot of GOP voters feel like they have to support Herman Cain in order to prevent Romney from winning the GOP nomination. It seems like GOP voters have settled on Cain as the best chance to beat Romney. A lot of GOP voters may like Ron, but they don't want to vote for Ron because the conservative vote will then be split. That's also why Bachmann and Perry are tumbling in the polls as well. GOP voters have decided that Herman Cain is the only candidate who can stop Romney from winning. So it's less about ideology than it is about pragmatism.

[RDM]

Iowans really like contact with candidates. Dr. Paul knows he needs to reach out to the people.

Seems to me a lot of voters really appreciated that Dr. Paul's people were going door to door and talking with them and giving them DVD's and literature last time (2007-08).

This is very important that people from the campaign reach out to them.

What you say may be true. If it is, then do we have those people doing that now in IOWA? Because if we are and considering Cain has not been in Iowa since the Ames Straw Poll(Yes, this is fact, Fox news mentioned it today) then obviously two things are happening here. Either we don't have people knocking on these doors like you say or our message is not resonating with Iowans. Which one is it?