10/19/2011 Donation Graph

[wstrucke]

Graph: http://ronpaulmyths.com/oct19.php
Data: http://ronpaulmyths.com/oct19.txt
Last Month: http://ronpaulmyths.com/campaign.txt

I'm getting data every minute and uploading every 10. Might bump that up to every 5 depending on how I feel. Definitely open to suggestions on the format, data, etc... since I am not an expert on statistics or anything.

http://ronpaulmyths.com/oct19.php

[wstrucke]

ticker counter reset at 11:53 pm!

[francisco]

seeing some itchy trigger fingers

[afwjam]

Looking good!

[JoshLowry]

Awesome dude!

Never seen that image format.

Can you make a graph that is maybe max 500x500 px that I can put underneath the Push video?

[wstrucke]

Sure -- this defaults to 500x500 px:

http://ronpaulmyths.com/oct19-500.php

or just use this one and provide whatever x and y value you want:

http://ronpaulmyths.com/oct19.php?x=500&y=500

[afwjam]

can you super-impose these lines on top?
http://ronpaulgraphs.com/dec_16_vs_nov_5_total.png

[wealeat]

Can we get one that compares it to best money bomb so far this cycle? Thanks for this though, it's awesome

[wstrucke]

I have data from the 9/17 money bomb so I can add that data in, sure. If anyone can get me the minute by minute totals from the 2008 money bombs I can add them as well.

[wstrucke]

okay, graph now includes data from the last two money bombs

[LibertyEsq]

Looking at the graph and I'm thinking we'll get over 4 million! Hopefully more of course ;)

[Karsten]

can you super-impose these lines on top?
http://ronpaulgraphs.com/dec_16_vs_nov_5_total.png

November the 5th and Tea Party were very close at around 9am, at which point tea party took off straight up and the slope for November the 5th was more gradual. Afternoon promotion is important!

[wstrucke]

This page automatically reloads:

http://ronpaulmyths.com/blackthisout.htm

[afwjam]

Very interesting that it seems to be picking up right now... 12 am pacific time boost?

[JustinL]

This page automatically reloads:

http://ronpaulmyths.com/blackthisout.htm

Nice, thanks!

[Zack]

Very interesting that it seems to be picking up right now... 12 am pacific time boost?

Probably at least a little bit of one. I just donated. I sort of like waiting until it's the actual moneybomb day where I am.

Like the look of this graph a lot, btw.

[anaconda]

Interesting to note that for Nov. 5th and Dec. 16th, both slopes were nearly linear and unchanged after about 8:30 - 9:00 AM. For the remainder of the 24 hr. period. Except for the uptick in the final hour on Dec. 16th. It will be interesting to see if the slope (whatever it is) is unchanged throughout the day for 10-19-11.

[afwjam]

Well it looks like we are on track to for sure beat Nov 5th. Low estimate 4 Million, high estimate is up to YOU!

[wstrucke]

bump

[ItsTime]

We are clipping a rate of 1k a min right now.

[wstrucke]

i fixed the issue where the graph wouldn't load while i was uploading it. now it uploads to a temp file and does a rename on the server when it's complete.

[PatriotOne]

We are clipping a rate of 1k a min right now.

I was tracking at 1k per minute for the past 30 minutes also. But my last calc was 20k in the past 12 minutes. Peeps are waking up :-)

[malkusm]

Well it looks like we are on track to for sure beat Nov 5th. Low estimate 4 Million, high estimate is up to YOU!

Not quite. 8:30 AM on Nov 5th 2007 was around $750K. I'd say we're on track for about $3 million today. We all need to push!

[PauliticsPolitics]

Hey wstrucke:
Can you remove the flat points from when the data was broken (12:30-14:30ish).
That flat area makes it hard to see the graph's trajectory; just remove the redundant points and let the graph connect the two points before and after the hiccup.

[gb13]

Looks like we didn't lose much momentum when the site crashed. The huge jump afterward made up for it almost entirely.

[anaconda]

Interesting to note that for Nov. 5th and Dec. 16th, both slopes were nearly linear and unchanged after about 8:30 - 9:00 AM. For the remainder of the 24 hr. period. Except for the uptick in the final hour on Dec. 16th. It will be interesting to see if the slope (whatever it is) is unchanged throughout the day for 10-19-11.

Money bombs 8/20 & 9/17 also appear quite linear. Perhaps linearity is a trend for RP money bombs? If so, it would seem to imply a good amount of predictability early in the day.

[TheTyke]

Why is the chart showing 1.34 million when the website shows 1.27?

[JTforRP]

As a noob, I have to ask you veterans how the hell you pulled that off in 2007?

[hazek]

As a noob, I have to ask you veterans how the hell you pulled that off in 2007?

Simple:

1. it was a brand new idea that had people feeling like they are participating in something special
2. Ron was way more ignored and smeared and marginalized than he is even today which fueled a lot more anger than there is today
3. we had excellent themed videos with hundreds of thousands of views promoting it
4. people were still overly optimistic and thinking the polls weren't accurate and haven't yet experienced the brutal reality come election day that in fact yes, the polls were pretty close to accurate

And these are just the 4 major reasons IMO..

[TheTyke]

As a noob, I have to ask you veterans how the hell you pulled that off in 2007?

There were several factors going that we haven't yet recaptured.

1) Closer to the elections, more people paying attention.
2) A lot of organizations sent out emails or promoted the moneybomb, such as precious metals, natural health, gambling etc.
3) Pledges were for $100 according to the pledge site.
4) There was a well publicized goal of $10 MILLION. Unfortunately, the media will spin it as failure if you don't hit it, so goals lost popularity.
5) Moneybombs were new, exciting, and we only had 2 big ones... the campaign needed money every month, but they will be smaller because it becomes routine.
6) There were some truly epic videos made. Paul supporters popularized the Tea Party concept and it was very exciting! We're starting to see a bit more like that.

In time maybe we'll get back to it. But even if we don't, it's not a failure... the campaign needed this money every month and earlier to achieve what it has... and we've raised twice as much this cycle in any case.

[Carole]

There were several factors going that we haven't yet recaptured.

1) Closer to the elections, more people paying attention.
2) A lot of organizations sent out emails or promoted the moneybomb, such as precious metals, natural health, gambling etc.
3) Pledges were for $100 according to the pledge site.
4) There was a well publicized goal of $10 MILLION. Unfortunately, the media will spin it as failure if you don't hit it, so goals lost popularity.
5) Moneybombs were new, exciting, and we only had 2 big ones... the campaign needed money every month, but they will be smaller because it becomes routine.
6) There were some truly epic videos made. Paul supporters popularized the Tea Party concept and it was very exciting! We're starting to see a bit more like that.

In time maybe we'll get back to it. But even if we don't, it's not a failure... the campaign needed this money every month and earlier to achieve what it has... and we've raised twice as much this cycle in any case.

True, both of these previous posts. One other thing was that being new at it and quite independent, just a spontaneous grassroots, we learned as we went along. There may have been times when we hurt RP's efforts because we were saving up for the big moneybombs, rather than constantly contributing smaller amounts along the way when he really needed the money.

But, those two big ones were quite amazing. There is nothing quite so exciting to share than thousands of people contributing toward the same goal out of belief in one man's principles. :D

[orenbus]

As a noob, I have to ask you veterans how the hell you pulled that off in 2007?

(posting this in this thread since it's somewhat related)

The next national sign bomb is already set for 11/5:

http://www.ronpaulsignbomb.com/

And one thing we've forgotten from November 5, 2007 and December 16, 2007 is that to have an extremely effective MB (as pointed out in another thread) you have to associate it with some visible activist events such as rallies, sign waves, etc. This gets people to interact with each other and motivates those that would not normally donate to donate money by having those around them suggest they do so. It's nice to have a blackout protest in NYC in front of the media buildings, but having worked in media I can tell you these demonstrations outside buildings happen all the time. Demonstrations need to be on a national level in order to be effective. Also generates a buzz and energy beyond just internet advertising through social media (word of mouth).

Finally the idea of OWS or other groups trying to take over one of our two largest fund raising dates should not just be accepted as the cost of campaigning, especially when the cost runs in the millions that will be used for ad buys that will reach many more potential voters in targeted early states.

[anaconda]

I just did a very rough graphical extrapolation at 5:40 PM -ish and it projected out to $2.08 million. Anyone else have more precise numbers?

[wstrucke]

bump

[evilfunnystuff]

This site has been suspended.

...

[squarepusher]

...

damn, broke the site

[parocks]

(posting this in this thread since it's somewhat related)

The next national sign bomb is already set for 11/5:

http://www.ronpaulsignbomb.com/

And one thing we've forgotten from November 5, 2007 and December 16, 2007 is that to have an extremely effective MB (as pointed out in another thread) you have to associate it with some visible activist events such as rallies, sign waves, etc. This gets people to interact with each other and motivates those that would not normally donate to donate money by having those around them suggest they do so. It's nice to have a blackout protest in NYC in front of the media buildings, but having worked in media I can tell you these demonstrations outside buildings happen all the time. Demonstrations need to be on a national level in order to be effective. Also generates a buzz and energy beyond just internet advertising through social media (word of mouth).

Finally the idea of OWS or other groups trying to take over one of our two largest fund raising dates should not just be accepted as the cost of campaigning, especially when the cost runs in the millions that will be used for ad buys that will reach many more potential voters in targeted early states.

The next money bomb is 11/11/11. Should the sign bomb be moved?

[IRONCLAD]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v498/Floridaironclad/Capture.png
This one just a few minutes ago $77.00
I bought some stuff at the store.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v498/Floridaironclad/donationsronpaul.png
This one early in the day $5.00
straight cash.

[IRONCLAD]

The reason behind the two places is because: Florida is my home state address.
The other one is my active duty station state where I am at now, so I wanted my stuff sent to me instead of my home in florida.

[wstrucke]

damn, broke the site

Yeah... it was unexpected, i assure you. http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?324514-Graph-is-down

[malkusm]

I just did a very rough graphical extrapolation at 5:40 PM -ish and it projected out to $2.08 million. Anyone else have more precise numbers?

Not a bad use of extrapolation, sir.

[orenbus]

The next money bomb is 11/11/11. Should the sign bomb be moved?

More people will be motivated to do a national sign bomb on 11/5 and the organizers of the sign bomb are already coordinating efforts nationally for that date, would be easier just to move the MB.