View Full Version : To anyone who knows differential Calculus
brandon
11-05-2007, 10:03 PM
Goto http://paulcash.slact.net/
Look at the graph for donations collected. Now look at the 2nd graph which is the rate of donations. The rate of donations would be the first derivative of the top graph.
Does that look like the derivative to you? It sure as hell doesn't to me.
What is going on?
brandon
11-05-2007, 10:04 PM
wow i post this and its burried in 10 seconds.... bump
hellah10
11-05-2007, 10:05 PM
LOL yea the threads and postings are insane right now
slantedview
11-05-2007, 10:06 PM
that stuff (diff calc) fades pretty fast once you're out of school :)
I think there is something to the other posts about the donations being backlogged because the transaction server can only process so many at a time. The campaign may know something we don't when they imply that we could beat Kerry's $5.7m day.
zebov
11-05-2007, 10:13 PM
I think there is something to the other posts about the donations being backlogged because the transaction server can only process so many at a time. The campaign may know something we don't when they imply that we could beat Kerry's $5.7m day.
Dude, seriously, you're gonna make me cry! No way... NO WAY! AHHHhhh! If they announced this, I don't know what I'd do... what would I do? What would we all do? CELEBRATE, that's what! Huzzah!
ChooseLiberty
11-05-2007, 10:14 PM
The first deriv. is just the slope of the line.
Eyeballing the slope of the line looks like about 3-400/hr, so it may be a little higher than the rate of donations which looks like 200-250.
amonasro
11-05-2007, 10:15 PM
I was told there would be no math :(
wgadget
11-05-2007, 10:16 PM
Earlier today, the campaign was quoting stats that were about $50K over what was showing on the screen and it had us all wondering....
jjockers
11-05-2007, 10:18 PM
The plots are correct.
12 - 10 oclock: 3500k - 1500k = 2000k
= 10 hours
2000k/10hr = 200k / hr
brandon
11-05-2007, 10:18 PM
The first deriv. is just the slope of the line.
Eyeballing the slope of the line looks like about 3-400/hr, so it may be a little higher than the rate of donations which looks like 200-250.
Right exactly.
So the first derivative should be a horizontal line for all time past 8:00AM. It is not at.
brandon
11-05-2007, 10:19 PM
The plots are correct.
Based on what??? Do you understand the argument I am making?
sylvania
11-05-2007, 10:20 PM
Yeah, it's been awhile, but if that first graph is right, then shouldn't that second graph be a flat horizontal line (after the initial first few hours)?
But if the server is backed up, then that would explain the straight line, but not the second graph. Hmmm...
OptionsTrader
11-05-2007, 10:22 PM
Dollars collected is a summation. Integrate donation rate and you'll get the summation.
spiteface
11-05-2007, 10:22 PM
It looks accurate to me. At 12pm it was at ~1.5mil and at 10pm it is at ~3.5mil. That's ~200k/hr which looks pretty close to the average for the same period in the second graph. Still incredible!
brandon
11-05-2007, 10:24 PM
Yeah, it's been awhile, but if that first graph is right, then shouldn't that second graph be a flat horizontal line (after the initial first few hours)?
But if the server is backed up, then that would explain the straight line, but not the second graph. Hmmm...
Exactly my thoughts
brandon
11-05-2007, 10:25 PM
Dollars collected is a summation. Integrate donation rate and you'll get the summation.
So your telling me you can integrate the second graph to arive at a graph that looks like the top one? I dont think so...
spiteface
11-05-2007, 10:26 PM
The plots are correct.
12 - 10 oclock: 3500k - 1500k = 2000k
= 10 hours
2000k/10hr = 200k / hr
Sorry didn't see you had already explained this. The graphs are correct, and a thing of beauty!
And still there could possibly be a backlog not showing up in any of the charts.
spiteface
11-05-2007, 10:27 PM
So your telling me you can integrate the second graph to arive at a graph that looks like the top one? I dont think so...
Yes, exactly.
OptionsTrader
11-05-2007, 10:27 PM
Yeah, it's been awhile, but if that first graph is right, then shouldn't that second graph be a flat horizontal line (after the initial first few hours)?
But if the server is backed up, then that would explain the straight line, but not the second graph. Hmmm...
The scale is throwing your eyes off. A dip and then subsequent rise back in the rate by $50,000/hr over the course of 2 hours is not going to change the summation of dollars collected appreciably at the scale you are viewing the summation from.
OptionsTrader
11-05-2007, 10:28 PM
So your telling me you can integrate the second graph to arive at a graph that looks like the top one? I dont think so...
yep.
Right exactly.
So the first derivative should be a horizontal line for all time past 8:00AM. It is not at.
Not exactly, but it's averaging close to a horizontal line. It's hovering between $175k and $250k per hour.
Highmesa
11-05-2007, 10:28 PM
I think you're being too analytical. The scale of the graphs would hide a lot. If you saw the raw data it make more sense, but yes the 2nd graph is a derivitive of the first. There are some bumps, but the second graph doesn't vary that much from 200k per hour. It would be hard to pick up too much variation in the slope of the first.
brandon
11-05-2007, 10:28 PM
The scale is throwing your eyes off. A dip and then subsequent rise back in the rate by $50,000/hr over the course of 2 hours is not going to change the summation of dollars collected appreciably at the scale you are viewing the summation from.
Ok, that makes sence
OptionsTrader
11-05-2007, 10:29 PM
I think you're being too analytical. The scale of the graphs would hide a lot. If you saw the raw data it make more sense, but yes the 2nd graph is a derivitive of the first. There are some bumps, but the second graph doesn't vary that much from 200k per hour. It would be hard to pick up too much variation in the slope of the first.
Precisely.
eok321
11-05-2007, 10:29 PM
I thought ron paul was austrian economics and foreihn policy for dummys?
Indeed, as you differentiate, errors are magnified. So, there isn't really anything wrong the the graphs. The derivative graph looks horizontal enough for me.
OptionsTrader
11-05-2007, 10:29 PM
Do we have access to the raw data, I can throw it in matlab real quick, lol.
ChooseLiberty
11-05-2007, 10:30 PM
I'm not sure why this is anything to be concerned about.
Are you saying the final numbers should be higher?
In any case - IT'S F'ING AMAZING - any way you slice it.
dmspilot00
11-05-2007, 10:30 PM
nevermind
OptionsTrader
11-05-2007, 10:31 PM
I thought ron paul was austrian economics and foreihn policy for dummys?
Hardly. He has been a student of economics for decades.
http://www.mises.org/books/paulmises.pdf
Brian4Liberty
11-05-2007, 10:31 PM
Differential Calculus? I only know it Partially... ;)
sylvania
11-05-2007, 10:33 PM
I can see now (thanks to the above posts) why it looks so off, it's that the scales in the two graphs are very different. Duh! Thanks.
What IS interesting to note is the 3rd graph, representing the number of donors per hour. This rate has continued to increase as the day progresses, and is currently at its peak.
Where can I learn about Differential Calculus ? Is it different from plain calculus ? or the same ?
eok321
11-05-2007, 10:36 PM
lets watch the baby cross 7 mill!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!
brandon
11-05-2007, 10:37 PM
Where can I learn about Differential Calculus ? Is it different from plain calculus ? or the same ?
It is plain calculus. If you know any calculus, you know differential calc. The other part of calculus is integral calc/
Ninja Homer
11-05-2007, 10:44 PM
Any of you math whizzes have something to say about how the "Donation Size, in $" graph goes gradually down starting at about 7 am, which is the same time that the total donations start the line up at about $210K/hr?
OptionsTrader
11-05-2007, 10:47 PM
Any of you math whizzes have something to say about how the "Donation Size, in $" graph goes gradually down starting at about 7 am, which is the same time that the total donations start the line up at about $210K/hr?
Many more people donating smaller amounts = more $/hr.
specsaregood
11-05-2007, 10:54 PM
Ok, this thread proves it.
Ron Paul is THE Nerd Candidate.
Not that there is anything wrong with that.
jj111
11-05-2007, 10:59 PM
Where can I learn about Differential Calculus ? Is it different from plain calculus ? or the same ?
I'll give you a private lesson via chat. My tuition is $200k/hour.
cjhowe
11-05-2007, 11:00 PM
Do we have access to the raw data, I can throw it in matlab real quick, lol.
http://ronpaulgraphs.com/rp-q4.zip
jj111
11-05-2007, 11:01 PM
Do we have access to the raw data, I can throw it in matlab real quick, lol.
I prefer my data medium-rare.
cjhowe
11-05-2007, 11:03 PM
Regardless, you'll have your answer in about 30 minutes as if there is not a backlog, the donations should slow to a trickle.
The backlog is a better explanation for the ramrod-straight line with no variance at all.
atariman486
11-05-2007, 11:06 PM
Differential Calculus? I only know it Partially... ;)
That is so punny.
Exponent
11-05-2007, 11:08 PM
The backlog is a better explanation for the ramrod-straight line with no variance at all.
Where are you seeing a perfectly straight line? Because every graph I look at for the total sum is a rather close to straight line that still has some minor deviations in it, plenty to account for the variances seen in the donation rate. It might not be entirely intuitive, but it can indeed work out that way.
atariman486
11-05-2007, 11:23 PM
It doesn't even look like a straight line now, so I guess the credit card backlog argument was just wishful thinking. :cool:
tcmaroc
11-05-2007, 11:35 PM
The second graph should start at 0 and not at 150 ($1000) donations per
ok the second graph is not the derivative and it's inacuurate, it's multiplying the number of people donating per hour (donations/hr) with the donation amount at t.
jgmaynard
11-05-2007, 11:39 PM
Interesting, Brandon. Given the linear rise of the total amount collected graph, you would expect the next graph to be nearly flat (whih it is over time, but the variations seem to suggest they would show). The only thing I can think is that there is a buffer of money yet to come in yet, just from online... Then there's the offline checks to add in as well :)
JM
spiteface
11-05-2007, 11:46 PM
http://www.hometracked.com/wp-content/uploads/forehead-slap.jpg
axiomata
11-05-2007, 11:53 PM
Do we have access to the raw data, I can throw it in matlab real quick, lol.
Your pocket protector is showing. ;)
richard1984
11-05-2007, 11:58 PM
Did you note the note in the graph's heading?
Donation Rate^3, in $1000 per hour
3. The points on the rate graphs are smoothed to a normal curve with a standard deviation of 15 minutes.
I don't know if that has any bearing on what you were actually wondering, but it seemed like it may have been overlooked.
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