Ron Paul with 13% and in 3rd nationally, in Reuters/Ipsos Poll

[sailingaway]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/10/12/uk-usa-campaign-poll-idUKTRE79B67720111012
http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11077

the two at the top are just place markers. :p

this is a national poll


Romney was backed by 23 percent of Republicans in the October poll, up from 20 percent in the most recent comparable Reuters/Ipsos poll carried out in June.

Cain, a businessman who has emerged as a surprise front-runner after proposing a radical tax reform, nearly tripled his support among Republicans in the same period, leaping to 19 percent from 7 percent four months ago.

"In the Republican presidential primary, everybody still says Mitt Romney's the front-runner," Ipsos research director Chris Jackson said. "And he is ... but he's certainly not any sort of dominant front-runner."

Texas congressman Ron Paul was third with 13 percent and Texas Governor Rick Perry fourth, with 10 percent.

and


The margin of error for Republicans among the 1,113 people polled was 4.8 percentage points, leaving Romney and Cain in a virtual tie.

Which also leaves RON and CAIN in a virtual tie.

And it appears from the wording that Ron's percentage is just among Republicans, although I don't see any cross tabs, yet. That would be good, if so.

[trey4sports]

he is really "everywhere" in these polls. It really will all come down to Iowa though IMO.

[bluesc]

Nice :)

That would sweeten the RCP average, but of course PPP exist.

[rp08orbust]

Great results. Shove them up your lying arse, PPP.

[IndianaPolitico]

Fantastic, very good news. Perry is in a nosedive, Bachmann is nowhere to be seen, and Paul is standing strong.

[Epic]

So, PPP has us at 5%, and Reuters has us at 13%?

That makes no sense...

Somehow we've got to break through into the mainstream. I suppose we should just keep knocking down the new candidate that the media tries to prop up. After Cain, they may try Santorum, because they haven't used him yet, or they could resurrect Gingrich.

[sailingaway]

So, PPP has us at 5%, and Reuters has us at 13%?

That makes no sense...

Somehow we've got to break through into the mainstream. I suppose we should just keep knocking down the new candidate that the media tries to prop up. After Cain, they may try Santorum, because they haven't used him yet, or they could resurrect Gingrich.

PPP's weird one will keep Ron out of double digits in the RCP poll average nationally which is a big deal.

[PaulConventionWV]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/10/12/uk-usa-campaign-poll-idUKTRE79B67720111012


the two at the top are just place markers. :p

this is a national poll



and



Which also leaves RON and CAIN in a virtual tie.

And it appears from the wording that Ron's percentage is just among Republicans, although I don't see any cross tabs, yet. That would be good, if so.

I wouldn't call that a virtual tie between Ron and Cain. The farther apart they are, the less likely that margin of error comes into play. In fact, the numbers for Ron AND Cain would have to be wrong at the same time for that to be true, so if you trust these numbers, it's not a virtual tie at all. Cain and Romney, however, are closer.

[sailingaway]

I wouldn't call that a virtual tie between Ron and Cain. The farther apart they are, the less likely that margin of error comes into play. In fact, the numbers for Ron AND Cain would have to be wrong at the same time for that to be true, so if you trust these numbers, it's not a virtual tie at all. Cain and Romney, however, are closer.

Yes, Romney and Cain are closer. It is a STATISTICAL tie, however. It doesn't matter, I recognize that whether Cain is on his helium induced upswing or starting back down, he is in any event currently above Ron's position. Helium doesn't provide lasting lift, though.

[JoshLowry]

Here's what Fox is linking to in their foxnews.com/politics section, not once, but twice.

A september 29th article with Ron at 6%.

http://i.imgur.com/1NGo8.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/9yPxw.jpg

[Fermli]

where do the rest of the candidates stand in this poll?

[mwkaufman]

That's Perry's lowest number since mid-July. (His campaign didn't officially start until mid-August.)

[pauliticalfan]

Hell yes, finally some good news. Now I can quit moping about that PPP poll that reeks of bullshit.

[LibertyEsq]

Please help me in contacting RCP to politely ask them to include this poll. I've tweeted Tom Bevan at @TomBevanRCP

[djruden]

I think PPP polls "likely republican caucus goers" ... That means old people that have attended previous republican caucuses. Ron Pauls support comes from a lot of people previously apathetic, young, or I even know democrats that will be supporting him this time around. So I think it is the polling methods that can be a bit deceiving.

The better polls are the ones that poll from all parties and break down the dems, reps, and inds.

[realtonygoodwin]

Rick Perry should be in single digits next month, and hopefully Herman Cain's descent begins soon as well. We still need to focus on expanding Ron's support. I could see potential future endorsements by Jim DeMint, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, and Michele Bachmann. We could probably net a couple percentage point bump from each, from their supporters. The media that would follow those endorsements would be even more valuable. Maybe Ron could be polling in the 18-20% range by the New Hampshire primary. I think Iowa will weed some people out.

[ItsTime]

We are on the march!

Ron Paul got the least amount of talking time last night and he is polling THIRD. Their agenda could not be more clear.

[Brett85]

This is actually good news for once. I still don't understand how these polls can be so far apart.

[LawnWake]

Uhh yes so who decides that they're inclunded in RCP or not? Every time I see a poll where Paul is doing great in, it never get included and when he's on a losing streak, he's suddenly fourth or fifth average at RCP.

And nope, I'm not hinting at a conspiracy.

[ItsTime]

Uhh yes so who decides that they're inclunded in RCP or not? Every time I see a poll where Paul is doing great in, it never get included and when he's on a losing streak, he's suddenly fourth or fifth average at RCP.

And nope, I'm not hinting at a conspiracy.

Black.....this........out

[beardedlinen]

For some reason RCP doesn't think this poll needs to be included in their list...

[LibertyEsq]

Uhh yes so who decides that they're inclunded in RCP or not? Every time I see a poll where Paul is doing great in, it never get included and when he's on a losing streak, he's suddenly fourth or fifth average at RCP.

And nope, I'm not hinting at a conspiracy.

Historically RCP hasn't been hostile to us, just ask them nicely, they might not even know about it yet

[LawnWake]

Historically RCP hasn't been hostile to us, just ask them nicely, they might not even know about it yet

Oh yeah, I wasn't insinuating anything. I was really just curious about what qualifies as a 'RCP' accepted poll, because.. yeah as I said, because I mostly see polls he's doing badly in being included recently.

[InTradePro]

Please help me in contacting RCP to politely ask them to include this poll. I've tweeted Tom Bevan at @TomBevanRCP

they won't put it up until the full results are released. All we have so far is a headline and an article but no detail on how such candidates as Gingrich, Bachmann, Santorum or Huntsman done.

[InTradePro]

For some reason RCP doesn't think this poll needs to be included in their list...

It's not been realised yet. That's why.

[Steve-in-NY]

Just get one more supporter this week, and start making calls for the campaign and PAC ASAP (http://phone.ronpaul2012.com and http://volunteers.rp2012.org)

I actually wrote this up - based off Pauls imagine speech:
If you like it, please feel free to repost it far and wide.

Imagine
Imagine if you took 10 minutes today, and wrote 3 emails to a friend of family member briefly explaining why you support Ron Paul for President and urging them to do the same.

Imagine if you sent that email to 20 people. 50. Your entire contact list.

Imagine if only 1% of the people contacted decided to support Ron Pauls campaign.
Imagine if those people sent out 3 emails as well.

Imagine if the 100,000 people that donated to Ron Pauls campaign just last quarter alone heard about this and did the same.

Imagine the level of support that could be gained in 10 minutes and a few clicks of a mouse.

Imagine Ron Paul as president.

Imagine you wrote that email right now, and this happened.
Imagine you saw Ron Pauls poll numbers skyrocketing, seemingly out of no where.
Imagine the panic from the media and establishment.

Ron Paul has stood steadfast for over 30 years.
Imagine you put in 10 minutes.
What are YOU waiting for?

[pauliticalfan]

they won't put it up until the full results are released. All we have so far is a headline and an article but no detail on how such candidates as Gingrich, Bachmann, Santorum or Huntsman done.

This is what I'm thinking.

[beardedlinen]

It's not been realised yet. That's why.

Ok...I hope your right.

[HeyArchie]

Here's what Fox is linking to in their foxnews.com/politics section, not once, but twice.

A september 29th article with Ron at 6%.

http://i.imgur.com/1NGo8.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/9yPxw.jpg
I see they are still clinging onto Perry. It's sad.

[Karsten]

Nice :)

That would sweeten the RCP average, but of course PPP exist.

Why don't we just black out PPP?

[Sweman]

Just get one more supporter this week, and start making calls for the campaign and PAC ASAP (http://phone.ronpaul2012.com and http://volunteers.rp2012.org)

I actually wrote this up - based off Pauls imagine speech:
If you like it, please feel free to repost it far and wide.

...

Imagine if only 1% of the people contacted decided to support Ron Pauls campaign.

...+rep for your effort, but the math says the project will dry up if you don't send more than 100 mails.

[sailingaway]

I see they are still clinging onto Perry. It's sad.

:)

[D.A.S.]

Oh jeez finally a piece of good news from these polls. We need a little morale boost to keep working hard :-)

And I believe that when we take to the newspapers, we will shore up even more support, especially in the early states where we need that most. I hope more folks here warm up to my proposal for newpaper "Call To Action" blitz for Iowa (and eventually NH).

[unknown]

Nice.

This will be going up on several other forums. Thank you.

[Steve-in-NY]

+rep for your effort, but the math says the project will dry up if you don't send more than 100 mails.
True, but if everyone just got 1 more - that would double our numbers and bring us into the 16% low end and 23% high end.

[NeoconTea]

It's not been realised yet. That's why.
Yes it has. The exclusion of Santorum is probably why they didn't include it at RCP. It's a shame because PPP is way out there (30% Cain wtf?) and Ipsos is a trusted polling institute.http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11077

For Republicans:
Romney: 23
Cain: 19
Paul: 13
Perry: 10
Gingrich: 7
Bachmann: 5
Huntsman: 2
Wouldn't vote: 3
None/other (includes Santorum): 9

For Independents + Republicans:
Romney: 21
Cain: 19
Paul: 12
Perry: 9
Gingrich: 7
Bachmann: 5
Huntsman: 2
Wouldn't vote: 2
None/other: 7

[sailingaway]

Yes it has. http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11077

thanks. Adding to the op. +rep

[pauliticalfan]

Yes it has. http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11077

Nice, up 6 points!

[NeoconTea]

I think Santorum is the reason why it's not included. RCP wants Frothy included in all their polls, even though he sucks.

[matt0611]

Fantastic, very good news. Perry is in a nosedive, Bachmann is nowhere to be seen, and Paul is standing strong.

Yes, and this Cain surging thing won't last IMO.

Actually, its kind of good that its happening now so that we can get it out of the way.
Perry has been permanent damaged, the others just don't have the traction.
I've said this for 4-5 months. Romney is the only real opponent. We beat Romney and we win.

[69360]

This poll is reasonable. I beleive it.

Something is fishy with PPP. I'm not buying Cain at 30% at all, 11 point difference from this poll? Too bad this isn't included in the RCP average.

There has to be a way to knock Cain down. I'm still in shock he got away with answering Ron by repeating 999 and jobs, jobs jobs.

Has America really dumbed down that far?

I've gone full on conspiricist as of yesterday, I used to sorta believe in a conspiracy against Ron, but I'm now 100% convinced.

Yes I already made my Black this out Pledge. :)

[bolidew]

For Republicans:
Romney: 23
Cain: 19
Paul: 13
Perry: 10
Gingrich: 7
Bachmann: 5
Huntsman: 2
Wouldn't vote: 3
None/other (includes Santorum): 9

For Independents + Republicans:
Romney: 21
Cain: 19
Paul: 12
Perry: 9
Gingrich: 7
Bachmann: 5
Huntsman: 2
Wouldn't vote: 2
None/other: 7

Interestingly Ron's percentage is worse when Independents are included. :confused:

Anyway it's a good poll showing for Ron! Way to go.

[anaconda]

Ron has already surpassed Perry. I'll take it. Cain should implode just about as quickly I would think.

[Simple]

Yes, Romney and Cain are closer. It is a STATISTICAL tie, however. It doesn't matter, I recognize that whether Cain is on his helium induced upswing or starting back down, he is in any event currently above Ron's position. Helium doesn't provide lasting lift, though.
The margin of error is 4.8, Cain is at 19, Paul is at 13. The difference between 19 and 13 is 6 which is greater than 4.8 so I disagree that we have a statistical tie.
The article was correct though:

The margin of error for Republicans among the 1,113 people polled was 4.8 percentage points, leaving Romney and Cain in a virtual tie.
It would also be correct to state that Paul and Perry are in a statistical tie (13-10 = 3 < 4.8)

[NeoconTea]

PPP loves Cain and hates Paul. If they're run by a bunch of democrats it would make sense. Cain has said some remarkably stupid things and continues to do so and is completely unelectable.

[sailingaway]

The margin of error is 4.8, Cain is at 19, Paul is at 13. The difference between 19 and 13 is 6 which is greater than 4.8 so I disagree that we have a statistical tie.
The article was correct though:

It would also be correct to state that Paul and Perry are in a statistical tie (13-10 = 3 < 4.8)

I believe the margin of error applies to BOTH numbers, as in Ron's could go that far in EITHER direction and Cain's can as well.

[sailingaway]

PPP loves Cain and hates Paul. If they're run by a bunch of democrats it would make sense. Cain has said some remarkably stupid things and continues to do so and is completely unelectable.

They are literally listed as a DEMOCRATIC polling company, not neutral. They do polling for the daily k***o***s

[cdc482]

Yes, Romney and Cain are closer. It is a STATISTICAL tie, however. It doesn't matter, I recognize that whether Cain is on his helium induced upswing or starting back down, he is in any event currently above Ron's position. Helium doesn't provide lasting lift, though.

sailingaway, don't take offense to this, but as a mod you really shouldn't be so loose with facts. This has happened before.

[sailingaway]

sailingaway, don't take offense to this, but as a mod you really shouldn't be so loose with facts. This has happened before.

what is loose about that? Part is clearly an opinion. The helium part. But here is the margin of error: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error

[IndianaPolitico]

Yes, and this Cain surging thing won't last IMO.

Actually, its kind of good that its happening now so that we can get it out of the way.
Perry has been permanent damaged, the others just don't have the traction.
I've said this for 4-5 months. Romney is the only real opponent. We beat Romney and we win.
I agree, Cain will fall soon. Having his Fed past come out will hurt him greatly, and saying 999 repeatedly will not carry him very far...

[NeoconTea]

We need Cain supporters going to us rather than to Gingrich/Perry/Bachmann.

[sailingaway]

We need Cain supporters going to us rather than to Gingrich/Perry/Bachmann.

Yeah, and I'd be concerned considering Ron is the one blowing his facade except I think most of those were previously with Perry, before that Bachmann, and before that, Trump. I don't think many beyond a small core are really knowledgable about Cain.

[Zydeco]

It's interesting how quickly Perry collapsed. Cain will no doubt collapse just as quickly. Bachmann, supposedly a "top-tier" candidate, has already fallen down the list (and is reportedly out of money). Christie and Palin aren't running and there are no other names I've heard that TPTB are considering for recruitment.

Once Cain goes, there's no one left to replace him -- it comes down to Paul and Romney. This is obviously upsetting for TPTB.

It's amazing that we're watching the slow-motion crumbling of a corrupt establishment. All the corrupted institutions -- financial, media, military, political, monetary, academic -- are about to broken at the same time. They're all at historic lows in terms of credibility, and they're all about to lose their stranglehold on power.

[centure7]

It's interesting how quickly Perry collapsed. Cain will no doubt collapse just as quickly.

Perry has collapsed but doesn't he have over $10 million in the bank? That could obviously fund a come-back for him. And didn't Perry only crumble because the media was trashing him for two weeks straight? It seems like they were trashing Perry to me. Then Cain won the Florida straw poll and they decided to shower lots and lots of praise on Cain without any scrutiny. And that has continued for about two weeks as well up until today when he looked like an idiot next to Paul. So, can't they just keep on praising him and unlike Perry simply not trash him and announce he is doing awful, thereby giving him continued numbers?

[Epic]

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11077

Toplines are above. RCP should post it now! Paul would be ahead of Newt then.

[turbobrain9]

All this is going to change over the next month...even if Ron was in a solid third, they wouldn't cover him..they would focus on Romney improving his debate performances, Cain surging, asking if Perry can get back up in it again...some other context, other than can Ron Paul win or Ron is holding steady...about the only positive mention we get is that we have strong ground game in IA....anything can happen!

[itsnobody]

Since Ron Paul is everywhere in the polls polls are obviously not going to be an accurate indicator of the number of votes he will get

Poll numbers aren't what ultimately matter, votes are.

[anaconda]

Ron is the one blowing his facade

What do you mean by Ron "blowing his facade?" I didn't know Ron had a facade. I thought he was essentially without a facade.

[CaptainAmerica]

Who are the Cain voters?I have yet to meet one.

[liberalnurse]

What do you mean by Ron "blowing his facade?" I didn't know Ron had a facade. I thought he was essentially without a facade.
I took it as Ron was blowing down Cains facade.

[anaconda]

I took it as Ron was blowing down Cains facade.

Ah, you are much smarter than me. That's obviously it. Thanks.

[Hospitaller]

I dont want to be a conspiracy theorist but 13% seems to be his natural number right now, the polls that are taking him down to 7% dont seem legit

[sailingaway]

Well, this, and 11, and 10 on the one side and then ones where they have to make judgments about who will show up at the caucuses and primary on the other. Honestly, I don't know anyone who thinks Ron Paul supporters won't show up.....:rolleyes:

But our guys may not have cared about whomever was running in their state in 2010, so a historical view of who is likely to go might make a considerable difference.

[parocks]

So, PPP has us at 5%, and Reuters has us at 13%?

That makes no sense...

Somehow we've got to break through into the mainstream. I suppose we should just keep knocking down the new candidate that the media tries to prop up. After Cain, they may try Santorum, because they haven't used him yet, or they could resurrect Gingrich.

Maybe, or maybe it's Bachmann's turn again. It went Cain, Bachmann, Perry, Cain.

[sailingaway]

The media is trying to inflate Gingrich and Santorum, from what I can tell. Cain will not last long at all.

[anaconda]

I dont want to be a conspiracy theorist but 13% seems to be his natural number right now, the polls that are taking him down to 7% dont seem legit

They better stop this shit with Ron or he will run third party and all of this Republican polling chicanery we mean nothing.

[sailingaway]

Even if he doesn't, pissing off his supporters enough to write him in has a similar impact. Unless they really think, even without his numbers growing, the GOP candidate is going to have a 13% margin over Obama.

[69360]

I dont want to be a conspiracy theorist but 13% seems to be his natural number right now, the polls that are taking him down to 7% dont seem legit

I never wanted to be a conspiracy theorist either. I used to laugh at them. But there is one against Ron, there is no denying it anymore.