NBC: Iowa and New Hampshire Polls

[SchleckBros]

IOWA
Romney - 23%
Cain - 20%
Paul - 11%
Perry - 10%
Bachmann - 10%

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Romney - 44%
Cain - 13%
Paul - 13%
Perry - 6%
Huntsman - 5%

http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/44850577/ns/today-today_news/t/romney-leads-iowa-new-hampshire/

I'd also like to note that I saw these polls released on MSNBC. First, they released the NH numbers and they first mentioned Romney in the lead then said Cain is in second at 13%. Then immediately moved to the Iowa poll, completely ignoring Ron Paul. HELLO MSNBC, RON PAUL IS TIED FOR 2ND. Then they went to the Iowa poll and Romney and Cain again, ofcourse they skip Ron Paul and go straight to Bachmann. WTH MSNBC!?!?! RON PAUL IS IN 3RD IN IOWA. The MSNBC lady acted as if Ron Paul was like a ghost or something. It was sickening.

BLACK THIS OUT!

[FA.Hayek]

IOWA
Romney - 23%
Cain - 20%
Paul - 11%
Perry - 10%
Bachmann - 10%

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Romney - 44%
Cain - 13%
Paul - 13%
Perry - 6%
Huntsman - 5%

http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/44850577/ns/today-today_news/t/romney-leads-iowa-new-hampshire/

I'd also like to note that I saw these polls released on MSNBC. First, they released the NH numbers and they first mentioned Romney in the lead then said Cain is in second at 13%. Then immediately moved to the Iowa poll, completely ignoring Ron Paul. HELLO MSNBC, RON PAUL IS TIED FOR 2ND. Then they went to the Iowa poll and Romney and Cain again, ofcourse they skip Ron Paul and go straight to Bachmann. WTH MSNBC!?!?! RON PAUL IS IN 3RD IN IOWA. The MSNBC lady acted as if Ron Paul was like a ghost or something. It was sickening.

BLACK THIS OUT!

please keep that handy for our Black This Out promotion!!

[69360]

These knocked RP back to 3rd in NH and 4th in IA in the RCP average, not good.

[michaelkellenger]

These knocked RP back to 3rd in NH and 4th in IA in the RCP average, not good.

Wrong. We were already fourth in Iowa on the RCP average.

Also, the poll dind't drop us in New Hampshire. RCP decided to drop a two-three week old poll from Rasmussen that had Cain at 4 and us at 13% that is why such a huge change. No reason to drop it, as it was Rasmussen's latest poll and 20 days old.

[ross11988]

I still can't believe this Cain crap.

[Bruno]

I still can't believe this Cain crap.

The media is a pretty powerful force. Americans have been conditioned for decades to buy what they are selling.

[michaelkellenger]

Can't believe it...this was a GIGANTIC poll...over 2000 polled in each state. You usually don't even have 1000 polled on national polls.

[Brett85]

I still can't believe this Cain crap.

I still can't believe this Romney crap.

[eaglesfan48]

I still can't believe this Cain crap.

+1 unfathomable

[ZanZibar]

No way Romney is that high in Iowa.

[Lafayette]

New Hampshire "the live free or just settle for Romney" state ?

[Bruno]

I agree Romney is not that high here. Someone is high who administered the poll, perhaps.

[69360]

I still can't believe this Cain crap.

What do people see in him? I don't get it at all, it makes no sense that he has support.


New Hampshire "the live free or just settle for Romney" state ?

More likely the next to Massachusetts state. That will be tough to overcome.


Doubting these polls got us nowhere last time and it won't this time. Maybe they are a few points low. That's not enough to win. We have to work harder and find a way to win.

[sailingaway]

Wrong. We were already fourth in Iowa on the RCP average.

Also, the poll dind't drop us in New Hampshire. RCP decided to drop a two-three week old poll from Rasmussen that had Cain at 4 and us at 13% that is why such a huge change. No reason to drop it, as it was Rasmussen's latest poll and 20 days old.

RCP is actively using polls that have candidates who are not running even when two versions were done, one of which only had listed candidates, which drops Ron's score. I used to think people were a little off the deep end when they said there was active bias AGAINST Ron, I could see pushing someone as something media would do because it fit their meme but not this outright inappropriate selection of polls. If you look at it, there is absolutely no excuse, but they can say 'it was an easy mistake, there were two polls'.... if only they hadn't received ton of email on it and could have corrected it. And then Bloomberg is using its poll with 'leaning GOP' to set up today's debate (so Perry Cain and Romney will be given tons more time, I''m certain) rather than their general population one which has Ron and Perry and Cain all essentially tied.

At some point, what can you do but go right to the people? And with the shortened primary time, there is less time to do that. Black THIS Out is right!

[wgadget]

What do people see in him? I don't get it at all, it makes no sense that he has support.



More likely the next to Massachusetts state. That will be tough to overcome.


Doubting these polls got us nowhere last time and it won't this time. Maybe they are a few points low. That's not enough to win. We have to work harder and find a way to win.

MOST CAIN SUPPORTERS don't know Cain's TRUE BACKGROUND. They listen to the neocon Cain shills and believe every word. Then they go out and buy his book, which I'm sure is slightly biased. We need to INFORM them. And A.S.A.P. Hopefully Ron will do a little informing at the debate tonight.

[JamesButabi]

Paul ahead of both Perry and Bachmann in Iowa is impressive. 44% in NH is incredible for Romney. I am shocked Romney commands that type of support. We will need not only multi-million ads buys for both states but a few good debates where Ron comes out with something out of the ordinary. The time is coming where debate generalities will need to be put aside for concrete plans.

[69360]

Ron needs to drop something like "when Cain was chairman of the KC fed" or "when cain supported tarp"

Or simply ask how would he implement this 999 as president and wait for the lulz.

[wgadget]

Well, those polls should look better after tonight's CAIN KNOCKDOWN.

Shouldn't be too hard. Anyone remember those blow-up Bozo the Clowns?

[sailingaway]

More likely the next to Massachusetts state. That will be tough to overcome.


Doubting these polls got us nowhere last time and it won't this time. Maybe they are a few points low. That's not enough to win. We have to work harder and find a way to win.

Yeah, but I can point to POLL discrepencies like always using the lowest of two that apply and using the lowest of two even when it clearly DOESN'T apply. This isn't just saying 'all polls are wrong'. The problem is that the media from the polls drives a REAL drop off. If you haven't seen the video on BTO on the first page (other stuff was promoted above it) you should. Media impacts polls and media with polls (whether or not wrongly selected) causes a REAL poll drop.

And I noticed in the Bloomberg 'write up' of his bio for New Hampshire it says first thing that Ron Paul was born and raised in Texas -- not PA, which isn't too far from being a neighbor, either.

[Brett85]

What do people see in him? I don't get it at all, it makes no sense that he has support.

He's a dynamic speaker with a great personality. He's basically the GOP's version of Obama.

[Brett85]

Well, those polls should look better after tonight's CAIN KNOCKDOWN.

Shouldn't be too hard. Anyone remember those blow-up Bozo the Clowns?

If Ron gets a chance, he should blast Cain on the bailouts and the Federal Reserve.

[69360]

Yeah, but I can point to POLL discrepencies like always using the lowest of two that apply and using the lowest of two even when it clearly DOESN'T apply. This isn't just saying 'all polls are wrong'. The problem is that the media from the polls drives a REAL drop off. If you haven't seen the video on BTO on the first page (other stuff was promoted above it) you should. Media impacts polls and media with polls (whether or not wrongly selected) causes a REAL poll drop.

And I noticed in the Bloomberg 'write up' of his bio for New Hampshire it says first thing that Ron Paul was born and raised in Texas -- not PA, which isn't too far from being a neighbor, either.

Oh I agree there are discrepencies in the polls. But I don't think they make enough of difference to worry about, I beleive they are a few points low. Do you really think we are gaining and losing supporters constantly? Everyone I know that is for RP is hardcore, they aren't changing their minds no matter what. That's been proven over and over. We just have to get more people onboard and hit the tipping point.

I'm from PA and I travel to MA a few times a year. It's an 8 hour drive for me and way more for western PA. We really don't have much in common.

NH and MA on the other hand share media markets so Romney had a lot of name recognition in NH. That will be tough to overcome.

[RonPaul101.com]

I still can't believe this Cain crap.

I wouldn't worry. Once voters understaqnd that no experience isn't a good thing and neither is being the KC FED Chairman, he'll be back tossin' pizzas by Thanksgiving...

[rich34]

Ron HAS to blast Cain on his Fed Chairman role of Kansas City, and his support of TARP. And I mean hit him right in the liver or heart. That should setup a nice, "Mr. Cain what is your response to Mr. Paul" and then finally we can see who the economic professor really is!

[Carole]

I still can't believe this Romney crap.


NH 2008
see map

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary,_2008

[Carole]

Ron HAS to blast Cain on his Fed Chairman role of Kansas City, and his support of TARP. And I mean hit him right in the liver or heart. That should setup a nice, "Mr. Cain what is your response to Mr. Paul" and then finally we can see who the economic professor really is!

It is important that the public understand Mr. Cain says no audit of the Fed is necessary as he does not believe they will find "anything".

[No Free Beer]

IOWA
Romney - 23%
Cain - 20%
Paul - 11%
Perry - 10%
Bachmann - 10%


NEW HAMPSHIRE
Romney - 44%
Cain - 13%
Paul - 13%
Perry - 6%
Huntsman - 5%

http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/44850577/ns/today-today_news/t/romney-leads-iowa-new-hampshire/

I'd also like to note that I saw these polls released on MSNBC. First, they released the NH numbers and they first mentioned Romney in the lead then said Cain is in second at 13%. Then immediately moved to the Iowa poll, completely ignoring Ron Paul. HELLO MSNBC, RON PAUL IS TIED FOR 2ND. Then they went to the Iowa poll and Romney and Cain again, ofcourse they skip Ron Paul and go straight to Bachmann. WTH MSNBC!?!?! RON PAUL IS IN 3RD IN IOWA. The MSNBC lady acted as if Ron Paul was like a ghost or something. It was sickening.

BLACK THIS OUT!

These numbers cannot hold up. Ron has the best ground game in Iowa. There is no way that Cain and Romney are THAT high.

[slamhead]

I am very encouraged by this. Knowing our support is real and translates into votes. Keep up the good work IA and NH revolutionaries.

[specsaregood]

I still can't believe this Cain crap.

The media is a pretty powerful force. Americans have been conditioned for decades to buy what they are selling.

There are some very powerful people with a sense of humor that know it would be the ultimate joke to get the "tea party" to nominate a federal reserve flunkie. And I gotta admit, I find it highly amusing myself -- in a human centipede kinda way that is.

[McChronagle]

these numbers just reassure me, not worry me. the ability for the msm to have such a huge influence tells me that first, most people have no idea how they will vote yet, might be unhappy with the current selection and can still be won over. this also tells me cain will get more focus in the debates/elsewhere and the more he has opened his mouth the more trouble hes gotten in. ron is the only one that can back up his words and win any argument with reason. its just a matter of time until the masses see that.

[pauliticalfan]

We have a solid double digit base of support in these states. We need to continue to expand this support.

[trey4sports]

I think we will have a better picture of the how we're doing once this media blitz commences.

[pauliticalfan]

Slightly unrelated, but does anyone else find it weird that more Iowans in this poll say they plan to participate in the Democratic caucus than the Republican caucus? I mean, there's an unchallenged Dem incumbent and a contentious Republican primary going on. If only we could convince some of those people...

[Billay]

A Herman Cain nomination would be the end of the Republican Party. Are we sure this is a bad thing?

[D.A.S.]

Herman Cain is becoming the new Rick Perry. The media is trying to resurrect Perry yet, so there may be some good red meat at the debate with Perry trying to come back and Herman Cain catching flack from others trying to neutralize his rise in the polls. It's like when Bachmann did a lot of the work for us with Perry - I'd like to see more of that but on Cain this time...

[69360]

A Herman Cain nomination would be the end of the Republican Party. Are we sure this is a bad thing?

No it wouldn't be. It would be like last time. He'd lose to Obama and the party would go on. He's not getting the nomination so who cares?

I for one don't want the Republican party to go away, I want to regain control of it.

[Billay]

No it wouldn't be. It would be like last time. He'd lose to Obama and the party would go on. He's not getting the nomination so who cares?

I for one don't want the Republican party to go away, I want to regain control of it.

Getting blown out by Obama again would be devastating. They almost wised up last time almost.

I used to want to fix the Republican party because it used to share my beliefs but and what point do we realize that we can't fix stupid?

[bolidew]

If No. 3 in both IA and NH in real elections and with MSM against you, the campaign is practically over.

[Liberty74]

The media is a pretty powerful force. Americans have been conditioned for decades to buy what they are selling.

What did they sell us in 2008? We have an infant occupying the WH :eek:

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

Doubting these polls got us nowhere last time and it won't this time. Maybe they are a few points low. That's not enough to win. We have to work harder and find a way to win.We win by giving the campaign enough money, as well as working independently, to blitz IA and NH with ads, bus tours, and anything else we can think of to change voters' minds in those states. Romney and Cain are easy targets, we just have to have the ammo to hit them.

[69360]

If No. 3 in both IA and NH in real elections and with MSM against you, the campaign is practically over.

Hardly. There are 48 more states. We aren't quitting.


We win by giving the campaign enough money, as well as working independently, to blitz IA and NH with ads, bus tours, and anything else we can think of to change voters' minds in those states. Romney and Cain are easy targets, we just have to have the ammo to hit them.

Yes, and it will be even easier with Perry attacking Romney. I'm hoping the Cain problem will work itself out when he has to say more than 999 and I'm a problem solver tonight.

[Billay]

Hardly. There are 48 more states. We aren't quitting.




The campaign isn't running a 50 state strategy.

[trey4sports]

if we dont do win in Iowa or NH i firmly believe that we will be relegated to a edu. campaign.

[69360]

The campaign isn't running a 50 state strategy.

Nobody is yet.

[Badger Paul]

Romney's support in New Hampshire is a mile-wide and an inch-deep based largely on name recognition and familiarity. Whoever wins Iowa will have a chance to make their case to the people of New Hampshire and I think New Hampshiremen will give them a fair hearing before making up their minds.

[Paul4Prez]

MOST CAIN SUPPORTERS don't know Cain's TRUE BACKGROUND. They listen to the neocon Cain shills and believe every word. Then they go out and buy his book, which I'm sure is slightly biased. We need to INFORM them. And A.S.A.P. Hopefully Ron will do a little informing at the debate tonight.

Exactly. Herman Cain worked for the Fed. Herman Cain didn't want to audit the Fed. Herman Cain supported the TARP bailout of the big banks, until he heard some of the bailout funds weren't going to the big banks (check the video from the first debate this year).

[Paul4Prez]

if we dont do win in Iowa or NH i firmly believe that we will be relegated to a edu. campaign.

BS. Ron Paul has the funds and the support to stay in the campaign and make a fight of it long after Iowa and New Hampshire. He hung around in 2008, and started hitting 20% in some states when it was down to a three or four man race. Obviously winning in Iowa would be the best case scenario, but if we get two second place finishes out of the gate, a lot of weaker candidates will drop out, and a lot of fence sitters will see Ron Paul as viable. Even third place might be good enough, as long as we're in double digits.

[IDefendThePlatform]

if we dont do win in Iowa or NH i firmly believe that we will be relegated to a edu. campaign.


I agree that we need to win at a minimum 1 out of 2 of Iowa or NH, and maybe both to actually win the nomination. If we don't wrap this up early the media will cause people to coalesce around 1 establishment candidate (Romney or Cain at this point) and we'll be fighting a hugely uphill battle with less money and the entire MSM against us.

We have to win early to actually win this thing.

If we win both Iowa and New Hampshire, then we have a chance to win in South Carolina after that. A win in all 3 of those would lock up the nomination for us and end the race before it begins. But it starts with Iowa and New Hampshire.

[Billay]

BS. Ron Paul has the funds and the support to stay in the campaign and make a fight of it long after Iowa and New Hampshire. He hung around in 2008, and started hitting 20% in some states when it was down to a three or four man race. Obviously winning in Iowa would be the best case scenario, but if we get two second place finishes out of the gate, a lot of weaker candidates will drop out, and a lot of fence sitters will see Ron Paul as viable. Even third place might be good enough, as long as we're in double digits.

It's not BS it's what the campaign has even said. To quote Steve "if we don't finish top 3 in Iowa I will have to get a job flipping burgers"