Recent polling:

[Nathan Hale]

What the hell????

I last checked RealClearPolitics.com's polling aggregator two days ago and Paul was at the top of the second tier, now Gingrich and Cain have shot past as post-debate polling comes in. This makes me very nervous. Paul is down, also. He used to have an RCP average of 9.8% or so, now he's under 8% and in 5th place!

Anybody have ideas on what Ron's strategy is related to this?

[limequat]

Look for a big TV advertising push in the next few weeks.

[D.A.S.]

We've been discussing this ad nauseum here lately... There are varying opinions on why the surge is happening for Cain - the win at P5 straw poll in FL, lots of media spin to promote him after P5, and his simple-sounding 9-9-9 plan is catching on with senior voters.

It's hard to say why Paul has been slipping. Reasons could vary from skewed demographic in the polls to effects from previous debate performances and lack of time he's been given to be on TV.

The campaign is planning a massive blitz right after this push to start working on those poll numbers.

[sailingaway]

They want to put out $2.5 million in ads and direct mail over the next 30 days. The Cain thing is an emotional swing on not liking Perry, because Cain was in media for the straw poll (Cain got media for that, natch.) But Cain's record is no better than it was and his youtubes are hilarious. He's a placeholder until the establishment can get behind someone, imho. They are pushing Christie.

In any event, the ad campaign should help, and Ron has been clearer on his transition of social programs, particularly senior entitlements since the debate. There was a bunch of outright lying media saying Ron had said to leave patients to die, which Ron never said, of course.

[jordie]

They want to put out $2.5 million in ads and direct mail over the next 30 days. The Cain thing is an emotional swing on not liking Perry, because Cain was in media for the straw poll (Cain got media for that, natch.) But Cain's record is no better than it was and his youtubes are hilarious. He's a placeholder until the establishment can get behind someone, imho. They are pushing Christie.

In any event, the ad campaign should help, and Ron has been clearer on his transition of social programs, particularly senior entitlements since the debate. There was a bunch of outright lying media saying Ron had said to leave patients to die, which Ron never said, of course.

Christie won't run, he's said it so many times now. The establishment isn't sure who to go with now. I think you'll see a push for Mitt "Corporations are people my friend" Romney again, he's got solid numbers and is happy to change his stances for them.

[Article V]

Well let's look at what Cain and Gingrich have both recently done that other candidates haven't.

Cain put forth his "999 Plan"
Gingrich put forth his "21st Century Contract with America"
Ron Paul put forth... ??????

It's time to submit a plan Americans can read through.

We must keep urging the campaign to put forth the "Ron Paul: 12 for '12" plan to restore America now.

[tfurrh]

I honestly think everyone's jaw dropped at the last debate when Ron Paul said, 'I'm polling third.'

They've done something about that now.

[Article V]

I honestly think everyone's jaw dropped at the last debate when Ron Paul said, 'I'm polling third.'

They've done something about that now.Yes, blame everyone else. Let's take no responsibility any time we falter.

[smtwngrl]

What the hell????

I last checked RealClearPolitics.com's polling aggregator two days ago and Paul was at the top of the second tier, now Gingrich and Cain have shot past as post-debate polling comes in. This makes me very nervous. Paul is down, also. He used to have an RCP average of 9.8% or so, now he's under 8% and in 5th place!


Remember it was the most recent debate when Paul mentioned that he was 3rd in the polls. Right after that, the media started pumping up Cain and Gingrich, which caused their numbers to go up. But Ron would still be slightly ahead of them in RCP, if you leave the Fox News poll out of the average.

In the Fox News poll, Cain went from 4% to 17%, and Gingrich went from 3% to 11%. I personally think those numbers are bogus (manipulated).

[tfurrh]

Yes, blame everyone else. Let's take no responsibility any time we falter.

Sure, I'll blame the media when Ron Paul wins several straw polls, and we get no coverage. Herman Cain wins FL straw poll, and he is talked about all week.

Sure, I'll blame the media when Ron Paul gets less than 5 minutes at the debates; alloting more time for everyone else.

I for one thing the campaign is doing a great job. ESPECIALLY in the early states. We'll get the poll numbers back up, but its going to take a doubled effort; which I am willing to do.

[cero]

I honestly think everyone's jaw dropped at the last debate when Ron Paul said, 'I'm polling third.'

They've done something about that now.

I so agree with that. they knew shit was up. they couldn't allow the Dr. to take third.

[Article V]

Sure, I'll blame the media when Ron Paul wins several straw polls, and we get no coverage. Herman Cain wins FL straw poll, and he is talked about all week.

Sure, I'll blame the media when Ron Paul gets less than 5 minutes at the debates; alloting more time for everyone else.

I for one thing the campaign is doing a great job. ESPECIALLY in the early states. We'll get the poll numbers back up, but its going to take a doubled effort; which I am willing to do.You miss the entire point of my message. And you dis-empower us with your blame game.

We were at 13%, we dropped. If we have supporters then we lose them... it's not the media's fault. To imply that implies we have no control over our fate because the media can take away half our support whenever they want. That's not the case. And if you believe it is, then there's really no reason for us to continue campaigning.

I believe the media and the establishment have stacked the deck against us. But we still are responsible for our own fate--both the gains and the losses. If we lose supporters, we have to own that.

The blame game helps no one and hurts our spirits.

[tfurrh]

You miss the entire point of my message. And you dis-empower us with your blame game.

We were at 13%, we dropped. If we have supporters then we lose them... it's not the media's fault. To imply that implies we have no control over our fate because the media can take away half our support whenever they want. That's not the case. And if you believe it is, then there's really no reason for us to continue campaigning.

I believe the media and the establishment have stacked the deck against us. But we still are responsible for our own fate--both the gains and the losses. If we lose supporters, we have to own that.

The blame game helps no one and hurts our spirits.

I strongly oppose the notion that Ron Paul loses supporters. I can accept that if Rick Perry has lost support, then it went to Herman or Newt. But I'm not going to start boo-hooing about how Ron Paul's not doing this or that because of a Fox poll or a CNN poll.

I'm saying that they have their own agenda. They let Ron Paul speak in fractions at the debates. They give Ron Paul fractions of coverage. THAT does have an effect.

Hey!, and here's an idea that will help the campaign! How about a pissing match on ronpaulforums?

[Article V]

I strongly oppose the notion that Ron Paul loses supporters. I can accept that if Rick Perry has lost support, then it went to Herman or Newt. But I'm not going to start boo-hooing about how Ron Paul's not doing this or that because of a Fox poll or a CNN poll.

I'm saying that they have their own agenda. They let Ron Paul speak in fractions at the debates. They give Ron Paul fractions of coverage. THAT does have an effect.

Hey!, and here's an idea that will help the campaign! How about a pissing match on ronpaulforums?I'm not boo-hooing. And of course it has an effect.

But the consistent refusal to own our fate is counter-productive to our cause.

[sailingaway]

I'm not boo-hooing. And of course it has an effect.

But the consistent refusal to own our fate is counter-productive to our cause.

It isn't consistent, and the polls aren't consistent. And when you note that the media run many of the polls, if there is an agenda anywhere, why not in how they structure polls? As with any other protocol, polling protocol has parameters, If in fact they DIDN'T want Ron to have the credibility of being in 3rd, they have enough parameters to play with to achieve that.

Do I think they all decided to do that at once? No, I think the media pretending Ron said to leave people to die ACTUALLY drove down soft support that had just attached to Ron. But I also think not all the new support, showing up in the 1000+ new facebook likes he's been getting since the Sept debates has been polled in, either.

But I thought from the beginning the only way Ron will actually win this is if we convince people to reregister for the primaries. His support is too steady accross independents and even Jeffersonian Democrats. We need all his support voting in the primary.

[RonPaul101.com]

Well let's look at what Cain and Gingrich have both recently done that other candidates haven't.

Cain put forth his "999 Plan"
Gingrich put forth his "21st Century Contract with America"
Ron Paul put forth... ??????

It's time to submit a plan Americans can read through.

We must keep urging the campaign to put forth the "Ron Paul: 12 for '12" plan to restore America now.

Oooo, how about "The American Restoration Plan" which already fits with the motto Restore America Now...

[The Free Hornet]

Well let's look at what Cain and Gingrich have both recently done that other candidates haven't.

Cain put forth his "999 Plan"
Gingrich put forth his "21st Century Contract with America"
Ron Paul put forth... ??????

It's time to submit a plan Americans can read through.

We must keep urging the campaign to put forth the "Ron Paul: 12 for '12" plan to restore America now.

Check this out: (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/09/29/8045194-gingrich-launches-21st-century-contract)

There will be 4 parts to the plan that will be finalized by Sept. 27th of 2012, the 18th anniversary of the original contract: The legislative proposals, a “first day” in office project, a training program for transition teams, and the building of a system of citizen involvement. Many of the details in his 26-page document are still evolving, Gingrich pointed out.

I don't disagree with putting out something, but a lot of this is bullshit. Almost nobody is going to read Newt's 26-page plan just like nobody cared about Romney's 59-point job plan (one point for all 57 states with 2 for Guam and Puerto Rico) and 9-9-9 could just as easily be "flat fair tax" or "8 8 8" or "10 10 10". Newt's plan was announced at the last debate but not yet ready - so I doubt it has affected the polls.

If 12 points need to be put out, the first 4 ought to be keepers with some punch:


* Vetoing any unbalanced budget Congress sends to his desk.

* Refusing to further raise the debt ceiling so politicians can no longer spend recklessly.

* Fighting to fully audit (and then end) the Federal Reserve System, which has enabled the over 95% reduction of what our dollar can buy and continues to create money out of thin air to finance future debt.

* Legalizing sound money, so the government is forced to get serious about the dollar’s value.
http://www.ronpaul2012.com/the-issues/economy/

It needs to lead with something unambiguous that can be said in 30 seconds that none of the other frontrunners can touch or make claim to. The last 8 of 12 points could be add ons.

[Article V]

Check this out: (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/09/29/8045194-gingrich-launches-21st-century-contract)


I don't disagree with putting out something, but a lot of this is bullshit. Almost nobody is going to read Newt's 26-page plan just like nobody cared about Romney's 59-point job plan (one point for all 57 states with 2 for Guam and Puerto Rico) and 9-9-9 could just as easily be "flat fair tax" or "8 8 8" or "10 10 10". Newt's plan was announced at the last debate but not yet ready - so I doubt it has affected the polls.

If 12 points need to be put out, the first 4 ought to be keepers with some punch:

* Vetoing any unbalanced budget Congress sends to his desk.

* Refusing to further raise the debt ceiling so politicians can no longer spend recklessly.

* Fighting to fully audit (and then end) the Federal Reserve System, which has enabled the over 95% reduction of what our dollar can buy and continues to create money out of thin air to finance future debt.

* Legalizing sound money, so the government is forced to get serious about the dollar’s value.
http://www.ronpaul2012.com/the-issues/economy/

It needs to lead with something unambiguous that can be said in 30 seconds that none of the other frontrunners can touch or make claim to. The last 8 of 12 points could be add ons.I like all of this.