Iowa Poll: Romney 21% Bach 15% Perr 14% Paul 12%

[TheState]

Link, http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/ia/

Also has comparison to past polls. It doesn't look as bad as I first thought.

RP 1st with independents. Bachmann is sliding, but Perry doesn't seem too strong.

Edit, just realized I shouldnt have put "Rom" in title, looks like Ron

[FSP-Rebel]

Sure hope those ads give us the traction we need.

[The Midnight Ride]

Link, http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/ia/

Also has comparison to past polls. It doesn't look as bad as I first thought.

RP 1st with independents. Bachmann is sliding, but Perry doesn't seem too strong.

Edit, just realized I shouldnt have put "Rom" in title, looks like Ron

My takeaway is that Paul and Romney have maintained their strength with their numbers not going outside the margin of error. Bachmann on the other hand has seen her support truly fall. Let's not get complacent and fund the Iowa projects!

[bluesc]

It's only bad for Perry. Very bad.

Pretty standard for everyone else. I was hoping for better than that.

[PastaRocket848]

this is getting upsettting. we need to be in the high teens or 20's by now. without help from the media, we're running out of time if we think we're going to double our support in a few months. why are paul's numbers stagnating? what else can we do to get past 15% and into the range we will need to be in to last beyond the early primary states? i hate to be negative but we need to deal in reality. we all wore rose-colored glasses all the way to super tuesday last time and it didn't get us anywhere. we need to identify the problem and address it. we're running low on time.

[specsaregood]

Still RP is leading among independents with 23%.
And right up there in the mix with the leaders in the "definite" voter category.

[specsaregood]

this is getting upsettting. we need to be in the high teens or 20's by now. without help from the media, we're running out of time if we think we're going to double our support in a few months. why are paul's numbers stagnating? what else can we do to get past 15% and into the range we will need to be in to last beyond the early primary states? i hate to be negative but we need to deal in reality. we all wore rose-colored glasses all the way to super tuesday last time and it didn't get us anywhere. we need to identify the problem and address it. we're running low on time.

I don't want to be wearing rose colored glasses; however.
Dr. Paul is leading in the independent category in 23% range.
Unfortunately that was group only made up 14% of the survey.
Republicans (86%) Independents (14%)

A really strong, organized GOTV among independents to the caucus could turn this poll on its head.

[kmalm585]

I think, and I'm new to this, that when/if Bachman drops out, it will only help RP's numbers. We would probably take a lot of her supporters.

[sailingaway]

This is after a week's barrage of media saying Ron said he wanted us to leave patients to die. Only a handful report that he said that SHOULDN"T happen and just one heckler from the audience shouted that out.

So this isn't too bad when you take that into account. And he is getting nice local media from his appearances yesterday, and had over 150 people at each of three stops.

[IndianaPolitico]

Last go around we were polling around 5% and we ended up with 10%. So if we add 5% to his numbers, he is at 17%. Don't let this get you down, the campaign is planning a BIG 2.5 million dollar ad push.

[IndianaPolitico]

This is after a week's barrage of media saying Ron said he wanted us to leave patients to die. Only a handful report that he said that SHOULDN"T happen and just one heckler from the audience shouted that out.

So this isn't too bad when you take that into account. And he is getting nice local media from his appearances yesterday, and had over 150 people at each of three stops.
Agreed, and I heard that one of Bachmann's stops only had around 50.

[trey4sports]

we need momentum.

[bolidew]

this is getting upsettting. we need to be in the high teens or 20's by now. without help from the media, we're running out of time if we think we're going to double our support in a few months. why are paul's numbers stagnating? what else can we do to get past 15% and into the range we will need to be in to last beyond the early primary states? i hate to be negative but we need to deal in reality. we all wore rose-colored glasses all the way to super tuesday last time and it didn't get us anywhere. we need to identify the problem and address it. we're running low on time.

Some Paul "leaners" become Hardcores but more has gone to other candidates....

[TheTyke]

Not to mention we are within the margin of error for 2nd.

Our turnout at caucuses is usually higher than the polling %s. Romney is the only one who hasn't been thoroughly vetted. Once he's taken apart, we'll definitely have a chance.

[bluesc]

Not to mention we are within the margin of error for 2nd.

Our turnout at caucuses is usually higher than the polling %s. Romney is the only one who hasn't been thoroughly vetted. Once he's taken apart, we'll definitely have a chance.

We have been within the margin of error for 2nd for a while now. We need to gain traction there. I hope the huge ad buy coming up puts us within striking distance of 1st.

[specsaregood]

I don't want to be wearing rose colored glasses; however.
Dr. Paul is leading in the independent category in 23% range.
Unfortunately that was group only made up 14% of the survey.
Republicans (86%) Independents (14%)

A really strong, organized GOTV among independents to the caucus could turn this poll on its head.

And following up on that ^. According to the Iowa SOS, as of Sept 2011 there were more Independents (both active and nonactive) than either of the 2 parties. Source: http://www.sos.state.ia.us/pdfs/VRStatsArchive/2011/CongSept11.pdf
That is a big ass pool of voters that Dr. Paul is leading amongst.

[somename043]

we are dedicated.

Preference by Likely to Vote:
Iowa
Likely Republican
Caucus Goers Definite - 10 (71%) Probably 7-9 (29%)

Bachmann 15% 14%
Cain 5% 8%
Gingrich 9% 6%
Huntsman 1% 1%
Johnson - -
Palin 3% 6%
Paul 14% 6%
Perry 15% 13%
Roemer 1% 1%
Romney 19% 25%
Santorum 3% 2%
Other 1% 1%
Undecided 14% 17%

[KingNothing]

we are dedicated.

Preference by Likely to Vote:
Iowa
Likely Republican
Caucus Goers Definite - 10 (71%) Probably 7-9 (29%)

Bachmann 15% 14%
Cain 5% 8%
Gingrich 9% 6%
Huntsman 1% 1%
Johnson - -
Palin 3% 6%
Paul 14% 6%
Perry 15% 13%
Roemer 1% 1%
Romney 19% 25%
Santorum 3% 2%
Other 1% 1%
Undecided 14% 17%

That is VERY heartening.

I think it's important to remember that the narrative surrounding Paul has been decidedly negative throughout most of the second half of September. It will take a few weeks for the storm to pass. I think, though, that with the positive press garnered from the Daily Show appearance, the Rockstar performance at Webster Hall, the third-place finish in donations raised this quarter, and the successful BTO MoneyBomb, the narrative will be decidedly different three weeks from now.

[parocks]

I don't want to be wearing rose colored glasses; however.
Dr. Paul is leading in the independent category in 23% range.
Unfortunately that was group only made up 14% of the survey.
Republicans (86%) Independents (14%)

A really strong, organized GOTV among independents to the caucus could turn this poll on its head.

Interesting Iowa Data.

Huckabee won in 2008 with 41K votes.

There are 30K students at the University of Iowa.

There are 30K students at Iowa State University.

[Merk]

Sadly the media blackout is really the thing hurting us. The cartel will not give up its power easily. Face to face mixed with ad/infomercial buys is where the numbers have to come from.

[rp08orbust]

That is VERY heartening.

I think it's important to remember that the narrative surrounding Paul has been decidedly negative throughout most of the second half of September. It will take a few weeks for the storm to pass. I think, though, that with the positive press garnered from the Daily Show appearance, the Rockstar performance at Webster Hall, the third-place finish in donations raised this quarter, and the successful BTO MoneyBomb, the narrative will be decidedly different three weeks from now.

Hopefully add a Values Voter Summit straw poll win to that as well.

[sailingaway]

And following up on that ^. According to the Iowa SOS, as of Sept 2011 there were more Independents (both active and nonactive) than either of the 2 parties. Source: http://www.sos.state.ia.us/pdfs/VRStatsArchive/2011/CongSept11.pdf
That is a big ass pool of voters that Dr. Paul is leading amongst.

and the independents went to Obama which they won't this time, so if they are selecting the number of independents for the poll based on the percentage that voted in the GOP caucuses last presidential election, that number will be way off.

[sailingaway]

Interesting Iowa Data.

Huckabee won in 2008 with 41K votes.

There are 30K students at the University of Iowa.

There are 30K students at Iowa State University.

All your students are belong to us!!!

[JohnGalt23g]

this is getting upsettting. we need to be in the high teens or 20's by now. without help from the media, we're running out of time if we think we're going to double our support in a few months. why are paul's numbers stagnating? what else can we do to get past 15% and into the range we will need to be in to last beyond the early primary states? i hate to be negative but we need to deal in reality. we all wore rose-colored glasses all the way to super tuesday last time and it didn't get us anywhere. we need to identify the problem and address it. we're running low on time.

Relax.

There is still a lot of football to play here.

[Carole]

Link, http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/ia/

Also has comparison to past polls. It doesn't look as bad as I first thought.

RP 1st with independents. Bachmann is sliding, but Perry doesn't seem too strong.

Edit, just realized I shouldnt have put "Rom" in title, looks like Ron

So does it mean anything that this polling group is out of New Hampshire?

American Research Group, Incorporated is a U.S. opinion polling and marketing research company based in Manchester, New Hampshire.

[bluesc]

All your students are belong to us!!!

Have you seen the possible new date for Iowa? Early January if Florida moves back. I'm not sure if that will hurt us.

[Agorism]

Keep advertising in Iowa. We need to shoot for at least second there although..first would be nice lol.

[Carole]

I think, and I'm new to this, that when/if Bachman drops out, it will only help RP's numbers. We would probably take a lot of her supporters.

Not an expert here, but IMHO Bachmann will not drop out of her "home" state before that primary vote occurs.

[specsaregood]

Not an expert here, but IMHO Bachmann will not drop out of her "home" state before that primary vote occurs.

Unless of course, the situation can be turned into where her staying in the race hurts her congressional reelection campaign. :)

[sailingaway]

Have you seen the possible new date for Iowa? Early January if Florida moves back. I'm not sure if that will hurt us.

Is college in session? THAT could be huge.

[KingNothing]

Hopefully add a Values Voter Summit straw poll win to that as well.

Indeed. It is not a stretch to think we'll take that one.

[GopBlackList]

Indeed. It is not a stretch to think we'll take that one.

How well did he do last time?

[Esoteric]

I think, and I'm new to this, that when/if Bachman drops out, it will only help RP's numbers. We would probably take a lot of her supporters.

I wouldn't bank on it. Maresco and I went to a Bachmann event in Iowa, and tried to plug our "for liberty" event. The reaction was mostly snarls and "oh, not that guy". The evangelicals want to legislate morality, and will only vote for someone who wears it on their sleeve.

[sailingaway]

How well did he do last time?

um....

we didn't go. I wouldn't count on 'taking' it, because the others who would do well there are also very organized. However, Ron needs to get good numbers.

[bluesc]

Is college in session? THAT could be huge.

The states submit their dates by Saturday. It all depends on how early it is.

[specsaregood]

How well did he do last time?

Would that be the time they booed him for saying, "we must remember that jesus was the prince of peace"?

[KingNothing]

um....

we didn't go. I wouldn't count on 'taking' it, because the others who would do well there are also very organized. However, Ron needs to get good numbers.

Ron seems like he's pushing to win this one. And the cost for a ticket is prohibitive, so I'm sure we'll have a strong showing.

[JamesButabi]

Would that be the time they booed him for saying, "we must remember that jesus was the prince of peace"?

Did this really happen? I need a tube.

[Esoteric]

Did this really happen? I need a tube.

wow, no way. That's Ron's bread and butter with the dogmatic crowd! If that one doesn't work, he might as well come out as an agnostic lol

[HOLLYWOOD]

17% undecided is a huge pool

But the Boule Shitzer results printed on the TEA PARTY stats are ridiculous

http://i15.photobucket.com/albums/a361/mzcmdr/TEA_PARTY_IOWA.png

[D.A.S.]

These poll numbers are very encouraging, actually. We're very much in the game, and Romney isn't in a huge lead there. It's very much an open race, and I believe Ron is starting an upswing. Last 30-40 days have been BRUTAL for us - lackluster debate performances, terrible curveball questions, strong media spin, and these polls show to me that we've weathered that storm. As Ron is working to hone in the message and refine it for the general voting public, I believe we can only move up.

[ItsTime]

Anyone can win this.

[sailingaway]

The states submit their dates by Saturday. It all depends on how early it is.

And then NH will move back 7 days before that. Sigh.... When does school start in NH?

[specsaregood]

Did this really happen? I need a tube.

Yes, it did. It was quite disheartening.

[Esoteric]

Yes, it did. It was quite disheartening.

when? where?

[sailingaway]

I think it was 2007 or 2008, not this go round, but even so.....

[specsaregood]

when? where?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChS7X9OETvk
This video doesn't make as clear, as teh person filming cheers loudly, but the cheers were in response to the booing that began. I remember it clearly.

[bluesc]

And then NH will move back 7 days before that. Sigh.... When does school start in NH?

According to their academic calender, UNH starts on Jan 24th.

[jkob]

This is good. I'd like to see Ron higher but I doubt Romney, Perry, and Bachmann's numbers will increase from where they're at and the latter two are only going to bleed more support.

[D.A.S.]

According to their academic calender, UNH starts on Jan 24th.

HA! Is Florida trying to force the early primary states to move their dates up so the colleges aren't in session during the Iowa and NH contests? I can certainly see why...

[MRoCkEd]

Statistically tied for second. This race is wide open.

[BUSHLIED]

Ron has yet to come out and deliver an economics speech, he is not giving the media anything to report about. All he has to do is select a place in IA or NH to deliver a strictly an economics speech, have a speech writer write it out, and deliver it, and to make sure Ron hammers Obama in it...

[MomsBasement]

Lol at romney leading in an evangelical state where he skipped their straw poll

[mwkaufman]

Romney did get 25% of the vote and 30,000 voters in 2008 against a tougher field of Huckabee, Thompson, McCain, Paul and Giuliani. He might be the favorite, but his support is probably softer than ever at this point.

For perspective the ARG Sept poll with their actual results and placement.

ARG Sept 2007:

Romney 1st 22% (2nd 25%)
Giuliani 2nd 21% (6th 3%)
Thompson 3rd 16% (3rd 13%)
McCain 4th 11% (4th 13%)
Huckabee 5th 4% (1st 34%)
Paul 6th 1% (5th 10%)

So a guy in 2011 Romney's position got virtually no votes at all and a guy in 2011 Cain's position won the damn thing.

[LibertyEsq]

This is going to come down to how much we raise with BTO. anything over $5 million and I would imagine Paul will be able to trounce whatever Bachmann spends. If we can absorb most of Bachmann's support we can win Iowa

[Steve-in-NY]

Its up to us to get more supporters. Seriously. Just because there is a lot of football to be played doesnt mean we shouldnt be doing 2 minute drill offense.

[RP Supporter]

These numbers are pretty good. Look at the three candidates ahead of us.

Romney's more or less written off the state. He won't win it, because he'll lack the ground game in the final days that the other candidates have.

Bachmann is irrelevant everywhere outside of Iowa. If her fundraising dries up she won't be able to support remaining a presence in Iowa, seeing her numbers shrink further.

Perry's cratering. I imagine next month he'll be even lower.

Paul has a very good chance of winning Iowa. He's right where Huckabee was in 2008. Being in the lead now would be bad, since the other candidates will either start to slam him or use the media to write the results off. We want to have a steady showing in the polls combined with a late surge that allows us to win the caucus. IMO.

[KEEF]

Have you seen the possible new date for Iowa? Early January if Florida moves back. I'm not sure if that will hurt us.

The more snow and ice for Ron Paul supporters, the better. We vote like the Post Office's motto, but unlike the US Post Office, we are more fiscally responsible.:)

[sailingaway]

These numbers are pretty good. Look at the three candidates ahead of us.

Romney's more or less written off the state. He won't win it, because he'll lack the ground game in the final days that the other candidates have.

Bachmann is irrelevant everywhere outside of Iowa. If her fundraising dries up she won't be able to support remaining a presence in Iowa, seeing her numbers shrink further.

Perry's cratering. I imagine next month he'll be even lower.

Paul has a very good chance of winning Iowa. He's right where Huckabee was in 2008. Being in the lead now would be bad, since the other candidates will either start to slam him or use the media to write the results off. We want to have a steady showing in the polls combined with a late surge that allows us to win the caucus. IMO.

Romney bought Pawlenty's ground game, don't forget. But I like your thinking.

[KEEF]

HA! Is Florida trying to force the early primary states to move their dates up so the colleges aren't in session during the Iowa and NH contests? I can certainly see why...

So for all of you college kids out there, get your paper work all together for absentee ballots.

[sailingaway]

So for all of you college kids out there, get your paper work all together for absentee ballots.

Yeah, that is a huge concern for me. They are enthusiastic, but when they aren't there, they aren't there. And it is a caucus state so absentee ballot doesn't cut it.

[D.A.S.]

Yeah, that is a huge concern for me. They are enthusiastic, but when they aren't there, they aren't there. And it is a caucus state so absentee ballot doesn't cut it.

Absentee ballots don't count at all in Iowa?

[rich34]

Absentee ballots don't count at all in Iowa?

It's a caucus folks, you have to show up and be there, or no our peeps won't count. And FL moving up their primary could hurt us if it pushes Iowa back so far that school isn't in session. Maybe that's their goal?

[specsaregood]

It's a caucus folks, you have to show up and be there, or no our peeps won't count. And FL moving up their primary could hurt us if it pushes Iowa back so far that school isn't in session. Maybe that's their goal?

Uhm, wouldn't school not being in session help us? Since you caucus in your home district (most likely their parents house).

[wgadget]

Didnt this same thing happen in 2008? I heard that the caucus in Iowa will be held close to New Years Day.

[trey4sports]

Uhm, wouldn't school not being in session help us? Since you caucus in your home district (most likely their parents house).


Good point.

[sailingaway]

Uhm, wouldn't school not being in session help us? Since you caucus in your home district (most likely their parents house).

I'm pretty sure Ron Paul supporters who were Iowa students would have, many of them, registered to vote in Iowa, if that is where they would be. They are allowed to, and if they were active in the Ames straw poll....

but the point is, kids aren't as active when they are home from school, politically.

[specsaregood]

I'm pretty sure Ron Paul supporters who were Iowa students would have, many of them, registered to vote in Iowa, if that is where they would be. They are allowed to, and if they were active in the Ames straw poll....
but the point is, kids aren't as active when they are home from school, politically.

I could be wrong, but I just don't see IA universities drawing lots of out of state students. Which means the majority of IA students are residents and probably registered to their home address. Since it also is the address they probably have on their drivers license.

[sailingaway]

I could be wrong, but I just don't see IA universities drawing lots of out of state students. Which means the majority of IA students are residents and probably registered to their home address. Since it also is the address they probably have on their drivers license.

I could be totally wrong, but I'm remembering Rand's campaign where it was like day and night with the size of crowds he would get depending on whether the colleges were there or not. Kids motivate eachother, imho. But nvm, there is nothing we can do about it one way or the other

[specsaregood]

I could be totally wrong, but I'm remembering Rand's campaign where it was like day and night with the size of crowds he would get depending on whether the colleges were there or not. Kids motivate eachother, imho.

I hear ya, but my point is: if I'm correct then when they are in school they could be less likely to caucus as it could be quite a drive to get to their home district.
But your point is valid as well: if they are not in school they might be less likely to caucus as there is less peer pressure.


But nvm, there is nothing we can do about it one way or the other
I totally disagree, how we tackle the above obstacle depends greatly on which situation we are in.

eg: not in school: need to work on social media to get peer pressure in place
in school: might need to work on travel logistics to get them home to caucus.

[tsai3904]

if I'm correct then when they are in school they could be less likely to caucus as it could be quite a drive to get to their home district.

Another thing to consider is that students can change their registration address to their university address and attend the nearby caucus.

http://www.sos.state.ia.us/elections/voterinformation/collegestudents.html


As a college student, you have the option of registering to vote in your hometown or in your college town. You can only register in one location. You CANNOT register to vote in both your hometown and in your college town.

[specsaregood]

Another thing to consider is that students can change their registration address to their university address and attend the nearby caucus.
http://www.sos.state.ia.us/elections/voterinformation/collegestudents.html

Good info!

[wgadget]

Found this article about it. This issue is very important, imo.

http://www.radioiowa.com/2011/09/28/iowa-caucus-date-likely-to-move-to-early-january/

[sailingaway]

We really have to focus on Iowa and New Hampshire.

[rich34]

Another thing to consider is that students can change their registration address to their university address and attend the nearby caucus.

http://www.sos.state.ia.us/elections/voterinformation/collegestudents.html

As long as school is in session.