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View Full Version : Rick Perry Latest Zogby Poll, Perry Plummets to 18%, Bachmann Continues Slide to 4%; Cain Now Leads




HOLLYWOOD
09-27-2011, 10:55 AM
http://zogby.com/news/2011/09/26/ibope-zogby-poll-perry-plummets-18-trails-cain-lead-among-gop-primary-voters/

IBOPE Zogby Poll: Perry Plummets to 18%; Trails Cain For Lead Among GOP Primary Voters


UTICA, NY--Rick Perry has tumbled by more than 20 percentage points over the past month among Republican presidential primary voters and is now second to Herman Cain, who leads the field with 28%.
Mitt Romney received little benefit from Perrys fall, garnering 17% of the vote for third place.
As for President Barack Obama, both his job approval (42%) and the percentage who believe he deserves re-election (37%) are little changed from recent polls, but he does seem to be winning back some supporters who have been disappointed in his job performance.
These results are from an IBOPE Zogby interactive poll conducted Sept. 23-26 of all likely voters and of likely Republican primary voters.
Announced GOP Candidates (GOP primary voters)
If the Republican primary for President were held today, for whom would you vote?

http://i15.photobucket.com/albums/a361/mzcmdr/CAIN_ZOGBY.png

Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding

This poll was conducted after Perry's most recent subpar debate performance last Thursday, but the survey was still in the field when Cain won a Florida straw poll on Sunday. Cain was the top choice of only 8% a month ago.
Michele Bachmann continues her drop in our polling, falling from a first-place 34% on June 30 to just 4% now. While some other announced GOP candidates have had large fluctuations in their standing with party voters, since June 21 Romney has remained steadily between 12% and 17%.

bolidew
09-27-2011, 12:35 PM
So the fall-back choice of Perry's supporters is Cain...

Chester Copperpot
09-27-2011, 12:44 PM
well it looks like ron paul is right.. theyre diluting each others' votes

HOLLYWOOD
09-27-2011, 01:34 PM
Like watching a pendulum swinging back and forth. Unfortunately, with all the turmoil between Romney, Perry, Cain, Bachmann, and Mr Frothy... still RP's numbers decreased slightly in the beginning and then evened-out to a flat 11%. No pickups for Ron, even though the other candidates are falling over one another with debate blunders and controversies surfacing.

Michael Landon
09-27-2011, 03:52 PM
well it looks like ron paul is right.. theyre diluting each others' votes

Here's where the problem lies....

When Johnson drops out and endorses Ron, Ron will get his 1% and move him to 12%.
When Santorum drops out and endorses Cain, Cain will get his 2% and move him up to 30%.
When Bachmann drops out and endorses Cain, Cain will get her 4% and move him up to 34%
When Huntsman drops out and endorses Romney, Romney will get his 5% and move him up to 22%.
When Gingrich drops out and endorses Cain, Cain will get his 6% and move him up to 40%.

So we'll be looking at a four man race that looks like this:
Cain - 40%
Romney - 22%
Perry - 18%
Paul - 12%

From there we'll see Perry drop out and endorse Romney, bringing his numbers to equal that of Cain at 40%.

Cain - 40%
Romney - 40%
Paul - 12%

The media will run with the 2-man race and Paul will be irrelevant to everyone. Eventually Romney or Cain will drop out and endorse the other thus bringing their total to 80% of the votes. This is what happened in 2008 and it looks like that is what will happen in 2012 unless we can get someone like Palin or Bachmann to come out and actually endorse Paul before the others start dropping out and endorsing one of the other Big 3 (Cain, Romney, Perry).

I hope I'm wrong.

- ML

Bruno
09-27-2011, 03:56 PM
Has any candidate in recent history slid 20% in the same poll from one debate? Wow

Sunstruck-Eden
09-27-2011, 04:00 PM
"When Bachmann drops out and endorses Cain, Cain will get her 4% and move him up to 34%"

Why the hell would she endorse Cain? Unless she really is a manipulative s.o.b and used Ron's friendship for her own advantage, she should go out and endorse Paul, (who has been her friend since she became a congresswoman). Seeing her a few years back, I can't believe how much she has changed to cater to the media. She just seemed so intelligent...

gls
09-27-2011, 04:08 PM
Here's where the problem lies....

When Johnson drops out and endorses Ron, Ron will get his 1% and move him to 12%.
When Santorum drops out and endorses Cain, Cain will get his 2% and move him up to 30%.
When Bachmann drops out and endorses Cain, Cain will get her 4% and move him up to 34%
When Huntsman drops out and endorses Romney, Romney will get his 5% and move him up to 22%.
When Gingrich drops out and endorses Cain, Cain will get his 6% and move him up to 40%.

So we'll be looking at a four man race that looks like this:
Cain - 40%
Romney - 22%
Perry - 18%
Paul - 12%

From there we'll see Perry drop out and endorse Romney, bringing his numbers to equal that of Cain at 40%.

Cain - 40%
Romney - 40%
Paul - 12%

The media will run with the 2-man race and Paul will be irrelevant to everyone. Eventually Romney or Cain will drop out and endorse the other thus bringing their total to 80% of the votes. This is what happened in 2008 and it looks like that is what will happen in 2012 unless we can get someone like Palin or Bachmann to come out and actually endorse Paul before the others start dropping out and endorsing one of the other Big 3 (Cain, Romney, Perry).

I hope I'm wrong.
D
- ML

I think you're giving Cain way too much credit. He is just the flavor of the month. Kind of like how Bachmann was. Wasn't Donald Trump leading the polls at one point?

69360
09-27-2011, 04:10 PM
This isn't a reputable poll. It's an online poll, meaningless as is obvious by the results.

Michael Landon
09-27-2011, 04:54 PM
I think you're giving Cain way too much credit. He is just the flavor of the month. Kind of like how Bachmann was. Wasn't Donald Trump leading the polls at one point?


"When Bachmann drops out and endorses Cain, Cain will get her 4% and move him up to 34%"

Why the hell would she endorse Cain? Unless she really is a manipulative s.o.b and used Ron's friendship for her own advantage, she should go out and endorse Paul, (who has been her friend since she became a congresswoman). Seeing her a few years back, I can't believe how much she has changed to cater to the media. She just seemed so intelligent...

Please note that I said we need her endorsement BEFORE others start dropping out and endorsing Cain or Romney or Perry. I used Cain because, to everyone not supporting Ron Paul, he's considered the "outsider". And I think she's more likely to throw her support towards him over Romney or Perry.

Regardless, it'll end up being a close 40/40 split between two of the establishment candidates with Paul around 12%, unless we get a big profile endorsement soon. The smaller endorsements are nice but when you see some bigger names like Norm Coleman and Tim Pawlenty joining up with Romney it hurts our chances. At some point you'll see Christie, Rubio, Boehner, Paul Ryan, and the likes come out and endorse Romney or Perry or Cain and at that point we can probably forget ever getting the neo-con voters to look at Ron Paul. They are blind sheep who'll jump to whoever they are told to support. I see it all the time at work. I have had better luck getting Democrats to support Ron Paul then I have had with the Republicans. So, while it is a nice thought that the bigger crowd of establishment candidates are splitting each other's votes, once they start dropping out, I'm willing to bet any amount of money that they'll throw their support at the other establishment candidates until there are two left with around 40% support each with Ron looking at about 12-15% of support.

I hope I'm wrong, I really do but it's the same thing that happened in 2008 only this time we are at 12% instead of 6%.

- ML

kylejack
09-27-2011, 05:10 PM
I think it's a crap poll. No way Cain got that big of a bump. Wait for more polls.

hellsingfan
09-27-2011, 10:23 PM
This isn't a reputable poll. It's an online poll, meaningless as is obvious by the results.

And when we vote bomb- and the media leaves out the poll or restarts it- its because those are representative?