New NH Poll, RP in 3rd with 13%

[limequat]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_republican_primary

[michaelkellenger]

Odd....everyone's numbers BUT perry's are in line with the suffolk poll released yesterday.

Romney's is within 3 I believe, Paul 1, Huntsman 3....Yet Perry has a difference in 9 in this poll....very strange. That's off the top of my head.

[limequat]

Yeah, but Perry's numbers are identical to the poll prior from suffolk. I think it's just noise.

[michaelkellenger]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html

Look literally everyone's numbers are the same or within 1, 2 or 3 points, except Perry. He has nine more points in this poll. I know the Suffolk poll included Palin (6%) and the Rasmussen one didn't, but....I doubt all her support would go to him + some.

[michaelkellenger]

Yeah, but Perry's numbers are identical to the poll prior from suffolk. I think it's just noise.

True. I just haven't seen that before where everyone's numbers are the exact same, except one is well beyond margin of error difference.

[limequat]

These paragraphs are encouraging:

"Unaffiliated voters can vote in the state’s GOP Primary, and among those voters Romney earns 34% support with Paul in second place at 19%. Huntsman gets 15% support from unaffiliateds, followed by Perry at 12%.
But just 34% of all likely GOP primary voters in the state are certain how they will vote at this time, and Romney leads Perry 43% to 17% among these voters. Paul also has 17% support within this group."

Is NH winner take all?

[michaelkellenger]

These paragraphs are encouraging:

"Unaffiliated voters can vote in the state’s GOP Primary, and among those voters Romney earns 34% support with Paul in second place at 19%. Huntsman gets 15% support from unaffiliateds, followed by Perry at 12%.
But just 34% of all likely GOP primary voters in the state are certain how they will vote at this time, and Romney leads Perry 43% to 17% among these voters. Paul also has 17% support within this group."

Is NH winner take all?

NH is not winner take all, in 2008

McCain got 7 delegates
Romney 4
Huckabee 1

[1836]

NH delegates are insignificant in number; what we should aim for is a top-2 finish here, or more than 20%. I mean to say, being runner up to Romney or a strong third. Nobody will beat Romney in NH this time around. Not us, not Huntsman, not anyone. There is no comeback McCain in this field who can beat Romney there.

If we could apply the pressure in that way, a strong second place, after a top 2 or 3 in Iowa, that is well within where we need to be at that point in the race to be in the mix.

As someone who was in New Hampshire primary night in 08, I remember the palpable disappointment with our finish... but this time, we are already consistently matching our very highest polling outliers from 07-08. Recall that we finished with only 8%.

[libertybrewcity]

Is this the first time Rasmussen has ever done a primary poll for a specific state? Notice how it came out a day after Rick Perry was polled in fourth.

[BSU kid]

Funny how their national poll gave him only 6%

[D.A.S.]

Unaffiliated voters can vote in the state’s GOP Primary, and among those voters Romney earns 34% support with Paul in second place at 19%. Huntsman gets 15% support from unaffiliateds, followed by Perry at 12%.

But just 34% of all likely GOP primary voters in the state are certain how they will vote at this time, and Romney leads Perry 43% to 17% among these voters. Paul also has 17% support within this group.

These indicate our real strengths. And only 34% of the likely voters are decided on their vote. So we have a lot of room for improvement there! Good news.