50 Dem seats that are more competitive than NY-9

[Agorism]

50 Dem seats that are more competitive than NY-9

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/277316/after-ny-9-50-democrat-held-house-seats-could-be-competitive


This is not to say Republicans will pick up 50 House seats in 2012. But if, indeed, we are in a national political environment where a D+5 district like New York’s 9th congressional district is “in play,” then it means we will see a whole lot of vulnerable House Democrats in the coming cycle, even after a year in which one might think that the Republicans had picked all of the “low-hanging fruit” in the nation’s House races.

Courtesy the good folks at the NRCC, a list of the districts comparable to or more favorable than NY-9:
NY-9:

NY-9 PVI = D+5

DISTRICT PVI OLD PVI DEMOCRAT
AR-3 (10) R+8 R+7 OPEN (ROSS)
CA-9 (11) D+1 D+11 JOHN GARAMENDI
CA-16 (18) D+2 D+4 DENNIS CARDOZA
CA-21 (20) R+4 D+5 OPEN (COSTA)
CA-24 (23) D+3 D+12 LOIS CAPPS
CA-46 (47) D+3 D+4 LORETTA SANCHEZ
CO-7 D+4 ED PERLMUTTER
CT-4 D+5 JIM HIMES
CT-5 D+2 OPEN (MURPHY)
GA-2 D+5 D+1 SANFORD BISHOP
GA-12 R+9 D+1 JOHN BARROW
IA-1 D+5 D+5 BRUCE BRALEY
IA-2 D+3 D+7 DAVE LOEBSACK
IL-3 D+5 D+11 DAN LIPINSKY
IL-12 D+3 D+2 JERRY COSTELLO
IN-2 R+7 R+2 OPEN (DONNELLY)
KY-3 D+2 JOHN YARMUTH
KY-6 R+9 BEN CHANDLER
MA-10 D+5 BILL KEATING
ME-2 D+3 MIKE MICHAUD
MN-1 R+1 TIM WALZ
MN-7 R+5 COLLIN PETERSON
NC-7 R+11 R+5 MIKE MCINTYRE
NC-8 R+12 R+2 LARRY KISSELL
NC-11 R+13 R+6 HEATH SHULER
NC-13 R+10 D+5 BRAD MILLER
NJ-12 D+5 RUSH HOLT
NM-1 D+5 OPEN (HEINRICH)
NY-1 EVEN TIM BISHOP
NY-2 D+4 STEVE ISRAEL
NY-23 R+1 BILL OWENS
NY-26 R+6 KATHY HOCHUL
NY-27 D+4 BRIAN HIGGINS
OK-2 R+14 R+14 OPEN (BOREN)
OR-4 D+3 D+2 PETER DEFAZIO
OR-5 D+1 D+1 KURT SCHRADER
PA-4 R+6 JASON ALTMIRE
PA-12 R+1 MARK CRITZ
PA-17 R+6 TIM HOLDEN
TN-5 D+3 JIM COOPER
TX-15 D+1 D+3 RUBEN HINOJOSA
TX-20 D+4 D+8 CHARLIE GONZALEZ
TX-28 D+3 EVEN HENRY CUELLAR
UT-2 R+15 JIM MATHESON
VA-11 D+2 GERRY CONNOLLY
WA-2 D+3 RICK LARSEN
WA-9 D+5 ADAM SMITH
WV-3 R+6 R+6 NICK RAHALL
WA-6 D+5 NORM DICKS

OPEN Seats
IL-8 D+5 OPEN
CA-41 D+3 OPEN
CA-47 D+5 OPEN
TX-34 D+3 OPEN

Think about it, if Republicans win just 10 percent of these seats, they’ve offset the worst-case scenario of the new district lines in Illinois.

[FSP-Rebel]

Most seem like liberal zones. Email that to Hannity, he might mention u on air.

[libertybrewcity]

I sense an even larger Republican majority in the house and a majority in the senate after the 2012 elections.

That being said, I don't know whether that is a good thing or bad thing.

[AuH20]

I sense an even larger Republican majority in the house and a majority in the senate after the 2012 elections.

That being said, I don't know whether that is a good thing or bad thing.

The leadership needs to be replaced. Once the leadership is replaced, everything else will fall in line.

[COpatriot]

I sense an even larger Republican majority in the house and a majority in the senate after the 2012 elections.

That being said, I don't know whether that is a good thing or bad thing.
Really not any better than it was when the Dems took control in '06 and '08. Within 4-8 years, the ignorati electorate will grow tired of them and "replace" them again.

[MJU1983]

I bet lots of Senate races go Republican too...I know in Missouri, where I am, I can't imagine Claire McCaskill being reelected.

I wish Gary Johnson would go for the retiring Jeff Bingaman's seat in NM.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2012

[eduardo89]

I bet lots of Senate races go Republican too...I know in Missouri, where I am, I can't imagine Claire McCaskill being reelected.

I wish Gary Johnson would go for the retiring Jeff Bingaman's seat in NM.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2012

Yeah Gary would easily win the GOP primary and has a really good shot at winning the general election there. He's seen as a very good governor and people really like him in New Mexico. He'd make an excellent senator.

[Austrian Econ Disciple]

Boy, it's like the American people forgot what happened the last 10-15 years of GOP leadership...Gee, I wonder what will be different this time. Do we have any liberty folks running in these? I wonder how much the pendulum will swing before it breaks. Any guesses folks?

[Peace&Freedom]

Many of those districts may be vulnerable, but unless they all have an embarrassing Weiner-like Democratic incumbent, it will likely be an uphill battle. And how does a Republican keep a strongly Dem-leaning seat if you gain it? The LP of Queens county endorsed Turner in NY-9, but we are under no illusions about how difficult it may be to hold that seat (if it continues to exist, after redistricting).

[Agorism]

The problem is the R's sellout on debt ceiling and TARP, and then they pass bad legislation as well.

They are kind of useless.