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View Full Version : I feel that we are reaching a watershed moment - my analysis & suggestions here




ibaghdadi
09-14-2011, 10:47 PM
I've been a Ron Paul fan for better than half a decade now, and was there to watch the 2008 campaign. Recently, with the Arab Spring, there's been an explosion in my follower count on Twitter (http://twitter.com/iyad_elbaghdadi) (pushing 8000 now), and importantly, many of my followers are influential accounts (both in politics and in media) and come from all over the world.

I have to tell you that I haven't seen as much interest in Ron Paul - and as many attacks & cheap shots against Ron Paul - over the past week than I have seen ever since I started on Twitter. Previously, Ron Paul to most was interesting but eccentric - someone to listen to for the occasional epic truth he'd say, but not someone to take seriously.

This is changing guys, very fast. I don't know if others can corroborate my sentiment. We are making some people very, very nervous. I feel a shift here from totally ignoring Ron Paul (and his fans) to taking cheap shots, to try to "knock us down a notch". There are a few things I want to talk about and discuss.


Cheap Shots Revisited

Last night someone ranted about how Ron Paul's a "racist". Someone else asked how many baby's he has delivered for free (a shot at his position on health care). Someone made a remark about his age and how frail he looks standing next to Perry and Romney and others.

Any long-term Ron Paul fan will know how to immediately and resoundly answer these, but perhaps there should be an FAQ-type "cheat sheet" for new comers. (Maybe it exists but I don't know about it, in which case it should become more public and more widely disseminated).


Ron's Foreign Policy

This is where we lose the conservatives, esp. the Israel-firsters. Ron Paul's foreign policy positions are very mature, but sometimes I feel he's out of touch with current events. The shift taking place in the Arab world is of cataclysmic, tectonic proportion, and if the movement takes a look here it'll find immensely helpful arguments for bringing the troops home and stopping the wars and defunding Israel.

To touch on this very quickly: Alqaeda is no longer relevant in the Arab world; easing pressure on Iran will probably allow its people to follow with their own popular revolution (hopefully more successful than 2009); defunding Israel will finally allow for a real peace process, instead of arm-bending dictators into signing with no real consent or support from their people.

It's important that Ron Paul sounds current, indeed forward-looking, in these matters.


Ron's Position on Health Care & Entitlements

This is where Ron Paul loses the liberals & some of the seniors. We know about unintended consequences and how the government ends up raising the price of everything when it gets involved in supposedly "humanitarian objectives" - but the average person doesn't and isn't bothered to learn a lot about it.

At the heart of this is an assumption that the government is the only agent of influence within society - that if the government doesn't do something, it just won't get done at all. This is the assumption that must be attacked. This is the heart & soul of statism.

How's this for a health care/entitlements position: "A society that allows the poor to starve to death, or the uninsured sick to die of disease, is an immoral and callous society. Someone should take care of the poor, sick, and hungry. But it shouldn't be the government - this is beyond its mandate. Americans are a charitable and humanitarian people, and there are many institutions that will gladly cover the shortfall when government rolls back."


How Fast should Change Happen?

We lose our audience on many questions because we fail to distinguish between "ideal solution" and "practical solution". Confusing the two would be disastrous. Accepting a convenient solution as a final one, or implementing the ideal solution immediately, would both result in disaster. This should be made clear so we don't sound like crazy radicals.

It must be made clear that when we talk about how the ideal situation should look like, we aren't saying that we want to do it tomorrow, but we want to move towards it so we can achieve it within say a generation. And we must have the practical, convenient, immediately actionable alternative on hand as a response.


Would it be better for the movement if Ron is NOT elected?

I keep wondering about this, in light of the very, very bad shape the US economy (indeed the world economy) finds itself in. Just yesterday I attended a live web seminar in which Doug Casey and Lew Rockwell (and others) spoke; the general mood is that this is very nearly beyond fixing. Someone (can't remember who) said that when he talks to politicians on either side, they get it, they really do, but can't get to stomach the solution.

Which means that, for the most part, Obama & co. will try to stabilize the patient so that it crashes & dies on the next President's watch. I keep thinking that the movement as a whole will benefit a lot more if Ron Paul is remembered as the voice of reason who called the great catastrophe and suggested solutions that no one heeded to, rather than being remembered as the President on whose watch the catastrophe occurred.


Anyway, that's my two-pence. Follow me on Twitter (http://twitter.com/iyad_elbaghdadi) for more discussions on this and other points.

sailingaway
09-14-2011, 10:51 PM
Thanks for the post! There was another post here with a study about how right about 10% is the amount needed to effectuate cascading intellectual change, if the time is right. Ron is right about 10% in the RealClearPolitics average now, and in third place. That is a good place to be, but you are right, they are trying to decapitate his movement. Ain't gonna happen.

Fermli
09-14-2011, 11:03 PM
good write-up. I did watch the first half of the live seminar you mentioned. I have my hero Doug as my avatar =)

I vehemently disagree with your last suggestion that it would be better if RP were not elected. If elected, he would have a huge microphone to spread libertarianism to the remaining unconvinced americans, as well as people around the world.

RP and the larger small govt movement will get blamed regardless. For evidence, see the debt ceiling debate and the 'tea party downgrade.' Also, the next economic crisis won't be an off/on switch. It will occur over several years. The more libertarians we have in society, the better capable we are of fixing the problems.

Ron Paul supporters won't blame him if he gets elected and the crisis happens. They understand the truth. Only non-RP supporters would blame him. If you agree with this, then why are you afraid of converting more people to RP supporters?

A libertarian president isn't just going to be a one time shot. Once you convert a plurality of the voting public by getting RP elected president, they won't go back to voting for criminals.


Which means that, for the most part, Obama & co. will try to stabilize the patient so that it crashes & dies on the next President's watch.

The president can't control this. Sure, the politicians are doing what is best for them in the short-term, but the market will largely dictate when the crash happens and how severe it is. It may happen before the election, the politicians can't prevent it (or else they would).

low preference guy
09-14-2011, 11:13 PM
i feel this way too. RP should keep doing what he is doing and it might just happen. but a breakout moment needs to happen, something like winning iowa.

boneyard bill
09-14-2011, 11:37 PM
There are two issues where I think Ron Paul should move aggressively. I think he should put forward a plan to save social security and medicare, similar to Rand Paul's plan. That would reassure seniors, but it wouldn't turn off young people because they don't expect to get it anyway. I would back this plan up with advertising. Then he should propose to turn medicaid over to the states with federal funding that would be phased out as taxes were cut and federal mandates were eliminated. I wouldn't stress charitable support completely. I'd stress that it isn't a federal responsibility. If states want to do such things, it's their constitutional right to do so.

On foreign policy I'd support non-intervention, but I'd challenge interventionists to show how their policy has been successful. What do we have to show for it? Iraq is now an ally of Iran. We supported the "democratic" revolution in Iran against the Shah and we got the regime of the mullahs instead. We now have jihadists fighting for power in Libya. That's not even counting prolonged wars and much blood and treasure in Iraq and Afghanistan. Wounded soldiers in Vietnam would also make a persuasive image in a commercial. I'd also try to sneak a section where Ron Paul predicted a terrorist attack and point out that he warned the CLINTON ADMINISTRATION of where its policies were leading us. Don't blame the US for 9/11, blame Clinton. And point out that Ron Paul predicted it.

Your third point does bother me. If Ron Paul got in could he prevent a collapse? Probably not. The situation is too far gone. If he pulled our troops home it would boost the economy and so would rescinding executive orders that are hampering the economy. Spending cuts due to his vetoes would increase unemployment because lots of government employees would get laid off. Could this save the situation? I don't think so. Interest rates would still have to rise. That will tank the bond market and produce another 2008 at best. But critics would blame the Paul administration for causing the collapse. Could the economy recover in four years? Hard to say. It depends on how severe the collapse is. We could see a collapse of the dollar.

But we still have to make the effort. Ron Paul is still a long shot to be elected, and the message still has to get out. And the organizing has to be done. We want libertarians and libertarian consevatives to pick up the pieces. We don't want statists using the catastrophe they caused as an excuse to grab still more power.

eleganz
09-14-2011, 11:42 PM
^^When you challenge the neocons on what has our foreign policy done to help us they just say, "haven't we been safe since 9/11? there have been no attacks on our soil". Silly neocons...

I agree that it is imperative we all get out there and do as much to help the grassroots as possible, even just being apart of the meetups, holding signs and doing administrative work, while the more experienced grassroots supporters go out there and talk.

dusman
09-15-2011, 12:09 AM
^^When you challenge the neocons on what has our foreign policy done to help us they just say, "haven't we been safe since 9/11? there have been no attacks on our soil". Silly neocons...

I agree that it is imperative we all get out there and do as much to help the grassroots as possible, even just being apart of the meetups, holding signs and doing administrative work, while the more experienced grassroots supporters go out there and talk.

For those I come across that are all for the war on terrorism.. I have a few videos that I like to show:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-XIeb879SY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PQTuoCcutk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMAONc7GeIc

LibertasPraesidium
09-15-2011, 12:36 AM
Spreading the truth in the sea of lies is vastly more important. but him not getting elected will not do us any bit of good. There would only be worse, no candidate at this point has any potential to even consider bringing the troops home, ending the fed, or restoring our Nation in any way.

Great ideas. Stick with it, we are 14 months out and its about to get real. once Oct/Nov roll around people will be gearing up for Feb 7th. SUPERTueSDAY as it was called last time. we need to dig our heels in, take the good with the bad, and really focus on exposure and educating people on how to become delegates. Postulating on how he can change his message one way or the other won't really do much.

plus if he changes in even the smallest amount we will notice, and so will the media, and they cannot wait to have him flipflop on an issue or be able to skew it in any way. his consistency is one of our greatest assets.

Staying current is all this man has ever done, wait, thats wrong, he is ahead of the curve. I am very happy to see more supporters giving their two-pence this time around it is always welcome, from newcomers and those who have been with the idea from the beginning. We need to come together and really raise the ante, this time we will win, and nothing will stop us.

** as a side note, given the horrific potential that he doesnt get elected because of sheep; we can being planning for secondary educational events. But that wont happen, so its only a hypothetical at this point.