Will it soon be a Paul/Romney race?

[boneyard bill]

Rick Perry is getting a lot of publicity following his announcement. So did Herman Cain after the South Carolina debate and so did Michele Bachmann after the New Hampshire debate. But after the early sensation, Cain began to sink and is now in the low single digits. Bachmann failed to make a mark in the Iowa debate and performed well below expectations in the Iowa Straw Poll nearly losing it all to Ron Paul. Moreover, a recent Fox Poll shows Bachmann and Paul tied for third with 8% as Romney and Perry run away with it. But when Sarah Palin is included, Paul loses a point, but Bachmann falls to a mere 4%!

Even before the straw poll, Bachmann had fallen behind Paul in some national polls. Now she seems to either trail Paul or ties with him. But the key point is that she has been steadily losing ground in the polls.

So what about Rick Perry? Will he turn out to be another Cain or Bachmann or Donald Trump? There's a lot of stuff in his book alone that he will have to "clarify," and the opposition research on him has just begun. And he has yet to face the public in a debate. He's the new front runner and the pressure will be on him to hit it out of the park. With three debates coming up, the pressure on will intensify. If he has a lackluster performance in the first debate the pressure will really mount for the second one. If all he does is hold is own with the other candidates, the commentary on Perry will turn negative, and his poll numbers will begin to fall just as they did for Bachmann and Cain.

When the media hasn't ignored Ron Paul, they have dismissed him as irrelevant. The nice thing about this is that expectations for Ron Paul have remained uniformly low. It's one game he can't lose at thanks to all those political experts in DC and New York.

It's over four months before any votes will taken. What did the race look like four months ago? There was all that talk about whathisname from Minnesota and Mitch Daniels and then John Huntsman and, of course, the boomlets for Cain and Bachmann. And we mustn't forget Rick Santorum whose polling at about one percent in the polls and slightly leading Gary Johnson.

But my point is that Bachmann is sliding and Perry is unproven and could well wind up on the same slippery slope, and that would leave a two-man race between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney.

This assumes, of course, that Sarah Palin doesn't enter the race. If she announces then we can sure that the media will quickly pronounce her campaign to be the death knell for the Ron Paul campaign and insist that it's down to her and Romney. But, of course, she's been sliding in the polls too.

[CaptainAmerica]

Paul will win the next debates, and the next one and the next one.

[RonPaulCult]

Just a hunch but I think Rick Perry is top-tier for the long run, as will be Mitt Romney. But I would imagine Perry is getting a "fresh to the game" bump right now and it probably won't last much longer. Some people think Rick Perry is pure tea party and when they learn that he raised taxes throughout his career, when they learned that he once called for an open border between the US and Mexico, when they learned he supported Hillarycare, and all of the other stuff that makes him establishment - at least some of that support will go to Ron Paul - the true constitutionalist in the race.

[sorianofan]

As I have been saying for a couple years, Rick Perry is heir apparent. Sadly, it's because he's a perfect politician (an ex-Democrat internationalist.)

His strength is his rhetoric, which if you lie through your teeth people are so stupid they will go with it.


However, he has a glass-jaw. He is not well-spoken, and does come across very Bush like. This style-over-substance criticism will prove to be a bigger liability to him than his false politics and false Christianity. It's this main point we have to hit.


He probably entered the race too soon.

[TER]

He probably entered the race too soon.

Exactly my thoughts. And this ALL had to do with Ron Paul's strength in Iowa and the fear the establishment had that he was going to win the straw poll. Had RP been a nonfactor for Iowa, I don't believe Perry would have entered the race until well in the fall.

[BamaAla]

I'm thinking that it will be Romney vs. Paul. We have to weather these big bump candidates like Trump and Perry (Giuliani and Thompson anyone,) but I think it will come down to Romney and our guy.

[fearthereaperx]

As I have been saying for a couple years, Rick Perry is heir apparent. Sadly, it's because he's a perfect politician (an ex-Democrat internationalist.)

His strength is his rhetoric, which if you lie through your teeth people are so stupid they will go with it.


However, he has a glass-jaw. He is not well-spoken, and does come across very Bush like. This style-over-substance criticism will prove to be a bigger liability to him than his false politics and false Christianity. It's this main point we have to hit.


He probably entered the race too soon.

Excellent analysis.

[LibertyEagle]

His record is his weakness. Any traditional conservative worth their salt, or any Christian for that matter, will run from him when they are shown his record. It speaks volumes and shows a complete lack of character.

But, I seriously doubt the media is going to do this for us, because Perry is the anointed one.

[ProBlue33]

Yes I agree biased on the 2008 election cycle Romney is seen as Presidential, he has a solid GOP base too. Perry base is brand new, Bush neo-cons that long for the Bush days, but some pragmatic republicans know thay can't win putting up a Bush clone from Texas against Obama. Another variable is the blue republicans that want some say in the primary process, the Democratic side is decided, it's boring with no choice. But the GOP that is another matter, in states where it not open many will register GOP so they can have some input, and most will vote for Ron Paul. Where it is open who knows how many will come out.
Perry might be in for the long haul but in the end it will be between Mitt and Ron.

[specsaregood]

As I have been saying for a couple years, Rick Perry is heir apparent. Sadly, it's because he's a perfect politician (an ex-Democrat internationalist.)

He probably entered the race too soon.

Hell, If I was advising him, I might suggest he completely skip the debates. Why bother given his position in the polls and the fact that the "right-wing" media is more than prepared to provide cover for him.

[Brett85]

I don't think so. The difference between Rick Perry and someone like Cain or Bachmann is that Rick Perry has been the Governor of a large southern state. People tend to like Governors since they haven't been in Washington DC. That's part of the reason why Romney and Perry do so well in the polls.

[blakjak]

I hope it doesn't come down to Paul and just one other candidate. For Paul to have a realistic shot at the nomination he will need as many "status quo" candidates in the race as possible.

[peterv]

"Will it soon be a Paul/Romney race?"

As much as I'd like to see this happen I'm in great doubt. Think GOP and press "Gate Keepers."
Is there a solution? We'll need an idea exponentially greater than the 2008 money bomb.
Sorry, I can't come up with it but it's bound to be floating around out there some where. Hope it isn't lost in the noise.

One thing I'd suggest to the Paul campaign is that they strongly advise Ron to talk slower on TV and select his points be made with great care.

[Athan]

I'll be honest. I don't think Romney has a chance. This isn't the same environment as 2008 when no one cared about the herd of RINO neo-cons grazing like fat cows in the tent. America's financial problems have come home to roost destroying much of the neo-con establishment plans and the Fed is finally being shown for the idiots they are.

- Romney has a tea party problem which means he is another spendthrift liberal who had his own version of obama care.

- He has a "just like obama" problem since that means no democrat has any reason to vote for him since they already have Obama.

- He has a mormon problem since most religious conservatives in the bible belt think his religion is a nonsense religion.

- He has an independent problem because he has a huge record of saying one thing today, and another thing tomorrow.

- He has a media problem because while they promote him now, they obviously will turn on him like the fist of an angry god IF he ever had a real chance of getting the nomination.

The guy is a magnetic walking target. Paul, Bachmann, and Perry doesn't have their balls (or vag) tied down like Romney. The only reason Romney is still in this race is all that money buys some time before the execution happens.

[R3volutionJedi]

Rick Perry is backed by Bilderburg...so, he will go pretty far.

I predict it will come down to Ron Paul, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney.

I don't think Palin will enter, and if she does...idk.

[boneyard bill]

I hope it doesn't come down to Paul and just one other candidate. For Paul to have a realistic shot at the nomination he will need as many "status quo" candidates in the race as possible.

I didn't mean to suggest that the other candidates would necessarily drop out. Most of them would still be on the ballot at least through New Hampshire I would think. I was only suggesting that they wouldn't be the leading contenders. They would become underdogs. In 2008, Romney and Thompson didn't drop out until after the South Carolina primary and Giuliani stayed past Florida.

[boneyard bill]

I'll be honest. I don't think Romney has a chance. This isn't the same environment as 2008 when no one cared about the herd of RINO neo-cons grazing like fat cows in the tent. America's financial problems have come home to roost destroying much of the neo-con establishment plans and the Fed is finally being shown for the idiots they are.

- Romney has a tea party problem which means he is another spendthrift liberal who had his own version of obama care.

- He has a "just like obama" problem since that means no democrat has any reason to vote for him since they already have Obama.

- He has a mormon problem since most religious conservatives in the bible belt think his religion is a nonsense religion.

- He has an independent problem because he has a huge record of saying one thing today, and another thing tomorrow.

- He has a media problem because while they promote him now, they obviously will turn on him like the fist of an angry god IF he ever had a real chance of getting the nomination.

The guy is a magnetic walking target. Paul, Bachmann, and Perry doesn't have their balls (or vag) tied down like Romney. The only reason Romney is still in this race is all that money buys some time before the execution happens.

If it comes down to Romney and Paul, the establishment will rally around Romney.

[boneyard bill]

I think Perry will need to shine in the debates. If he looks just like all the other candidates, he will slide in the polls. He needs strong debate performances to keep his momentum going. That's going to be tough to do, but I'm not claiming he's not up to it. I just don't expect it.

[sofia]

I hope it doesn't come down to Paul and just one other candidate. For Paul to have a realistic shot at the nomination he will need as many "status quo" candidates in the race as possible.

The Establishment will not allow a fractured vote. After the first 3 or 4 primaries, they will all start throwing their support to Perry.....Romney will hang in a bit longer...but eventually stand down as he did with Mccain.


For whatever reason, The Establishment favors Perry over Romney. Im guessing its because Perry is blackmailable.

[RKoho]

I think Perry can be in it for the long haul if Paul or Romney give him a pass. Either one needs to expose his baggage or they'll lose. If Perry gets knocked out I think Cain will shoot up. People just seem to like him, and that sucks.

[boneyard bill]

After the initial boost from his announcement, Perry will slide. He is going to need to do something to stop that slide. Strong debate performances would do that. But there is no reason to expect Perry to stand out from the rest at this stage of the game. Perhaps he will and cement his position as the front runner. But in any case, he will have to do something somewhere along the way to stop his poll numbers from sinking. Being just like all the others won't do that. At this point, he does not have much of an identity with the voters. He must establish one to maintain momentum. Maybe he will succeed in doing that. I just don't see him doing that so far.

I suppose there's also a chance that Bachmann can come up with a new theme that will resonate with the voters and get her back in the race, but I don't know what it is and, I suspect, neither does Bachmann.

Ron Paul, on the other hand, stands out from the others from the very git-go. So the only thing he needs to do is keep adding converts. He is doing that slowly but surely. It wouldn't surprise me if he's in the top two by December. I'm not making any predictions. I'm just saying that I think it's a realistic possibility. He's gaining ground in the race, and he's improving the presentation of his message. As he gains ground, more and more people will begin to look at where he stands.

[wgadget]

After the initial boost from his announcement, Perry will slide. He is going to need to do something to stop that slide. Strong debate performances would do that. But there is no reason to expect Perry to stand out from the rest at this stage of the game. Perhaps he will and cement his position as the front runner. But in any case, he will have to do something somewhere along the way to stop his poll numbers from sinking. Being just like all the others won't do that. At this point, he does not have much of an identity with the voters. He must establish one to maintain momentum. Maybe he will succeed in doing that. I just don't see him doing that so far.

I suppose there's also a chance that Bachmann can come up with a new theme that will resonate with the voters and get her back in the race, but I don't know what it is and, I suspect, neither does Bachmann.

Ron Paul, on the other hand, stands out from the others from the very git-go. So the only thing he needs to do is keep adding converts. He is doing that slowly but surely. It wouldn't surprise me if he's in the top two by December. I'm not making any predictions. I'm just saying that I think it's a realistic possibility. He's gaining ground in the race, and he's improving the presentation of his message. As he gains ground, more and more people will begin to look at where he stands.

But I thought the election was about who would LOOK best as President...Perry has the best hair by far. And he's got that SWAGGER. :D

[wgadget]

But seriously, when you think about each GOP candidate, they each have their fatal flaws:

1. Perry - All skeletons and no closet.
2. Bachmann - The weird factor.
3. Romney - Obamneycare
4. Huntsman - WHO?
5. Cain - no money
6. Gingrich - "right-wing social engineering"
7. Santorum - whiny loser syndrome

WHICH LEAVES the Original and Best most sensible Patriot of all...RON PAUL.

[jason43]

I'm thinking at this point it would be much easier for the establishment to just have the supreme court declare perry the winner and save us all the trouble:rolleyes:

[wgadget]

I'm thinking at this point it would be much easier for the establishment to just have the supreme court declare perry the winner and save us all the trouble:rolleyes:

Not to mention the expense, both financial and mental.


We think we ELECT our politicians...pfft.