PDA

View Full Version : Analysis: Throw out every single poll except for Iowa and NH, only these matter to us




FreedomLover
11-04-2007, 12:00 PM
1. Throw out every national poll that says Guiliani is in the lead, Thompson second, with Romney and McCain rounding out the top 4. These do not matter to us. Not because of any alleged innaccuracies in polling, but because there is no national primary. There are only state primaries.

Once we've done that, we can look at state polls.

2. Throw out all polls from states that have primaries on or after february 5. These are the states that determine about half of all delegates needed to win, but they come on the same day. The voters in these states base their vote heavily on what has happened in the past month. Before Super Tuesday, there are 4 or 5 early states giving the winner (s) national recognition and an infusion of popularity and aura of inevitability.

All polling data before these early primaries are useless because the distinction of winning or coming in the top 3 of these primaries changes the game permanently. Every single other poll from then on is dramatically changed.

We saw this phenomenom most recently with John Kerry.

In a CBS Poll taken January 15th, just 4 days before the Iowa Caucuses, John Kerry was in 4th place nationally, polling at 7%. he was behind Dead (24%) Clark(12) and Gephardt(11).

In Iowa and New Hampshire he was polling around 3rd place.

An NBC poll taken around the same time had him in 5th place nationally.

THEN, After his surprise victory in the Iowa Caucus, John Kerry shot up to 30% nationally in Newsweek, Quinnipac Poll, and Fox news (29%) Polls, doubling the percentage of his closest rival.

Many attribute his surprise 1st place finish to Dean and Gephardt squabbling for 1st place and too much negativity, but for whatever the reason, when John Kerry won Iowa, his fortune snowballed rapidly...

Then, with this bit of momentum, he won New Hampshire, the state that just a month ago, before the Iowa caucuses, had Howard Dean with a 25 point lead.

After his New Hampshire victory, John Kerry shot up to between 40-50% nationally in most polls, right before Super Tuesday, leading to his eventual domination.

As you can see, John Kerry went from being around where mike huckabee and ron paul are right now, polling 4th or 5th place nationally and 3rd or 4th in Iowa and New Hampshire, to winning over 90% of all delegates, all because of the Big Mo' Iowa and NH supplied him.

If I were to pick a winner now, it would be Romney. He seems to have recognized this strategy early on and rightfully put all his work and money into these two states.

If Ron Paul is to be elected, his only hope in getting the extra GOP primary voters necessary to outright win a plurality and thus the delegates needed to win the nomination on February 5th and beyond, is to either win or come in second in Iowa AND/OR New Hampshire. Anything else is failure. I believe we are on the right track in New Hampshire, but Iowa is looking pretty bad. If New Hampshire doesn't pan out like we hope, we should atleast have a buffer in Iowa in hopes that we can get a suprise third or second.


Comments, Concerns, Critiques, etc?

noxagol
11-04-2007, 12:05 PM
Huckabee could win Iowa, but I am wililng to bet Ron will take NH, dont forget SC though. If we get NH and SC, I think it would be the boost needed for the rest. Get all three and forget about it, we are in.

Alien11
11-04-2007, 12:09 PM
bump for 100 percent correctness. Everyone should read this!

me3
11-04-2007, 12:12 PM
Iowa and NH are huge. Edwards and Romney are playing to this.

But Nevada, South Carolina, Wyoming and Michigan could help make up any lost ground in the earliest states.

FSP-Rebel
11-04-2007, 01:04 PM
Iowa and NH are huge. Edwards and Romney are playing to this.

But Nevada, South Carolina, Wyoming and Michigan could help make up any lost ground in the earliest states.
Michigan should be an easy one since the Dem primary is virtually locked for Hillary, thus higher %s of dems will come out for Paul. + We have alot of indies as well. We placed 3rd @ Mackinac and we all paid for our own accomodations. We also just recently made good friends with the Arab-American Institute in Dearborn. They held a dinner the night before RP's (recent Dearborn) speech for about 50 RP supporters (+Lew and Kent)at a nice Lebenese restaurant. I doubt any other candidate's supporters were invited for a private party on the house. Anyway, we're definately strong here in Mich.

jgmaynard
11-04-2007, 01:07 PM
The way it is shaping up, we may be able to pull off a stunningly powerful 1-2-3 punch of NH, MI, NV. That would propel Ron to front-runner status almost right away. :)

JM

constitutional
11-04-2007, 01:09 PM
I like the way you think. It's convincing!

RP is the only anti-war republican. I think we can pull this one off! We need to continue this dedication. We can do it, I feel it. Keep pressing on!

FSP-Rebel
11-04-2007, 01:11 PM
If our money stays on par, we'll be in fine shape the next couple months.

ross11988
11-04-2007, 01:18 PM
Also keep in mind that 90% of Ron Paul supporters are actually going to the polls, where maybe 50% of Guliani are going to stay home and watch American Idol.

fourameuphoria
11-04-2007, 01:28 PM
I think SC is huge. McCain and Buchanan won New Hampshire, but it pretty much went back to Dole and Bush after they won SC.

Lord Xar
11-04-2007, 01:36 PM
Huckabee could win Iowa, but I am wililng to bet Ron will take NH, dont forget SC though. If we get NH and SC, I think it would be the boost needed for the rest. Get all three and forget about it, we are in.

I just read an article on yahoo about SC and they did not mention ron, they said the ghoul, the flipflopper and the sleeper were ahead... with McAmnesty in 4th..

so, I think we have a big road in SC -- but I'd love to focus on that.

Lord Xar
11-04-2007, 01:37 PM
The way it is shaping up, we may be able to pull off a stunningly powerful 1-2-3 punch of NH, MI, NV. That would propel Ron to front-runner status almost right away. :)

JM

Is that the order?

klamath
11-04-2007, 01:58 PM
100% correct!

jgmaynard
11-04-2007, 02:05 PM
Is that the order?

I have been reading today that the primary order is currently penciled in for Iowa, Michigan, Nevada as this week's lineup with NH not listed. NH is looking to me like it will be Jan 8th, which would place it in that order, yes. :)


JM

M.Bellmore
11-04-2007, 02:11 PM
Michigan should be an easy one since the Dem primary is virtually locked for Hillary, thus higher %s of dems will come out for Paul. + We have alot of indies as well. We placed 3rd @ Mackinac and we all paid for our own accomodations. We also just recently made good friends with the Arab-American Institute in Dearborn. They held a dinner the night before RP's (recent Dearborn) speech for about 50 RP supporters (+Lew and Kent)at a nice Lebenese restaurant. I doubt any other candidate's supporters were invited for a private party on the house. Anyway, we're definately strong here in Mich.

I am not sure I agree yet about Michigan. We have to de-rail Romney. He has a huge organization in Mi. What I believe we need to do in the early states is to 1) identify the frontrunners (e.g. Romney in MI) and the top concerns for that state (MI: big taxes, gun control, jobs). Now develop strategy (radio ads, newspaper ads, op-ed pieces). We need more of "Why is Ron Paul the greatest thing for state x, while the others are meatheads"

literatim
11-04-2007, 02:41 PM
We definitely need to start running ads that show the neocons for what they are.