PPP - South Carolina GOP Presidential Primary Poll

[tsai3904]

South Carolina (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/perry-up-big-in-south-carolina.html)
8/25 - 8/28
750 usual Republican primary voters
+/-3.6%

With Palin:

Perry 36%
Romney 13%
Palin 10%
Cain 9%
Bachmann 7%
Gingrich 7%
Paul 5%
Santorum 4%
Huntsman 2%


Without Palin:

Perry 36%
Romney 16%
Bachmann 13%
Cain 9%
Gingrich 8%
Paul 5%
Santorum 4%
Huntsman 2%


Ron Paul Crosstabs With Palin (Without Palin):

18 to 29 - 4% (4%)
30 to 45 - 2% (2%)
46 to 65 - 6% (7%)
Older than 65 - 5% (5%)


Man 6% (6%)
Woman 4% (5%)


Results from last South Carolina poll:

South Carolina (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/06/romney-ahead-in-sc.html)
6/2 - 6/5
1,000
+/-3.1%

With Palin:

Romney 27%
Palin 18%
Cain 12%
Gingrich 12%
Bachmann 9%
Paul 7%
Pawlenty 4%
Huntsman 2%


Without Palin:

Romney 30%
Cain 15%
Gingrich 15%
Bachmann 13%
Paul 10%
Pawlenty 5%
Huntsman 2%


Ron Paul Crosstabs With Palin (Without Palin):

18 to 29 - 4% (12%)
30 to 45 - 10% (14%)
46 to 65 - 7% (9%)
Older than 65 - 4% (6%)


Man 7% (11%)
Woman 6% (8%)

[malkusm]

Ugh

[Havax]

poop poop poop polling

[Agorism]

uggg. I knew the S.C. one would suck.

[erowe1]

Looks like Perry hurts everybody about the same right now. That in itself isn't a bad thing. We definitely have our work cut out. But making Romney not be the presumed nominee throws everything wide open.

[limequat]

Ouch.

[Agorism]

what was last time.



ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Perry effect: Romney down 14 pts in SC, Newt down 7, Cain down 6, Paul down 5. Only Bachmann/Huntsman steady

PPPpolls twitter

[Kregisen]

wtf...did fema comments hurt him??? what happened? 5%??

[erowe1]

wtf...did fema comments hurt him??? what happened? 5%??

Looks to me like it's because of Perry.

[HOLLYWOOD]

How many times/dates/towns has Ron Paul campaigned in South Carolina?

Perry and Bachmann have been pretty aggressive across the palmetto state. Today's Headline... it pays to physically campaign hard and often. According to RP2012 schedule, RP has one campaign stop/townhall over the next week and that is in NH.

It also doesn't help when MSM UPI doesn't even mention Ron Paul in their article with the exception of the BS CNN poll... but 1% Huntsman is mentioned a top tier.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2011/08/30/Perry-Bachmann-are-SC-primary-favorites/UPI-20061314715495/?spt=hs&or=tn

U.S. News (http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/) Perry, Bachmann are S.C. primary favorites
Published: Aug. 30, 2011 at 10:44 AM

Slideshow
1 of 2

http://ph.cdn.photos.upi.com/sv/emb/UPI-20061314715495/3f9270eaaded13b27d541cbdafd816bb/Perry-Bachmann-are-SC-primary-favorites.jpg (http://www.upi.com/enl-win/3f9270eaaded13b27d541cbdafd816bb/UPI-20061314715495/)
Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-MN, speaks during a news conference regarding the debt ceiling
on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on July 13, 2011. UPI/Roger L. Wollenberg

COLUMBIA, S.C., Aug. 30 (UPI) -- Texas Gov. Rick Perry (http://www.upi.com/topic/Rick_Perry/) and U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota are early favorites heading into the wide-open South Carolina primary, state Republicans say.
GOP leaders say former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (http://www.upi.com/topic/Mitt_Romney/) and former Utah Go. Jon Huntsman shouldn't be counted out, The Hill reported Tuesday.
"I think South Carolina is very, very wide open," said Van Hipp, a former state Republican Party chairman. "Perhaps more than I've ever seen before."
Since its inception in 1980, the South Carolina primary has decided the eventual Republican presidential nominee. The 2012 contest is scheduled for Feb. 28, a week before Super Tuesday.
Rep. Tim Scott is hosting a series of town hall meetings in his district for the presidential hopefuls.
"I think the field is indeed full of talented people, and ultimately they haven't spent enough time engaging the voter to make a decision," Scott said. "I think it's now time to begin focusing as much energy in South Carolina as they do any other place."
Scott said candidates must build a "home-field advantage" in the state, which other Republicans said Perry did when he launched his campaign in South Carolina and Bachmann has developed by her frequent visits to the state.
Several other events before the primary could determine the winner, including U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint's Labor Day forum and Gov. Nikki Haley's planned endorsement before the primary, The Hill said.
A CNN-ORC poll released Monday reinforced Perry's standing as the front-runner in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.
Thirty-two percent of Republicans named Perry as the candidate they'd most like to see win the nomination, results indicated. Eighteen percent of Republicans said they would like to see Romney win and 12 percent cited Bachmann as their choice. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was favored by 7 percent and Rep. Ron Paul by 6 percent.
The CNN poll is the second to place Perry atop the field, following a Gallup poll released last week.
The results are based on nationwide telephone surveys of 930 adults conducted Wednesday and Thursday. The margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

[dirtfarmerz]

Looks to me like it's because of Perry.

Perry could have resulted in Paul's downtick in the polls. Another thing that could have affected Ron Paul's standing was his answer on Iran in the last debate. I can't believe just how many Christians I know were stunned at Paul being okay with Iran having nuclear weapons. I understand where Congressman Paul was coming from but I think his answer on Iran may have hurt him in South Carolina.

[wilcox71]

Did they take the poll right after Perry announced? I don't think he is that high anymore.

[realtonygoodwin]

We NEED to put a focus on South Carolina, and soon.

[bluesc]

These numbers are awful. Poll after poll showing him at 5%. I never expectected Ron to win South Carolina but I was expecting top 4.

[RileyE104]

These numbers are awful. Poll after poll showing him at 5%. I never expectected Ron to win South Carolina but I was expecting top 4.

I'm starting to think that we're not going to do good in SC unless Palin and/or DeMint endorse Paul.

Of course, has the campaign even campaigned down there much yet? Is there even a campaign office in SC yet? I don't remember hearing so.

[blakjak]

I understand where Congressman Paul was coming from but I think his answer on Iran may have hurt him in South Carolina.

Not just in South Carolina, but the damage was done nationally as well. People took it as an endorsement of Iran having a nuke. He was killed on the conservative talk shows.

[RonPaul101.com]

Not just in South Carolina, but the damage was done nationally as well. People took it as an endorsement of Iran having a nuke. He was killed on the conservative talk shows.

Yeah he should have deflected instead of such a direct answer. Instead of, I don't see why not, or they need clout among their neighbors... he just should have kept it at, I don't think its worth sanctions which will only lead us to war. And I assume Fox would insist on an answer, "Dr. Paul does that mean you would let Iran have a nuke?" the answer, 'not if it means sanctions and more costly wars that are fleecing America.'

[bluesc]

I'm starting to think that we're not going to do good in SC unless Palin and/or DeMint endorse Paul.

Of course, has the campaign even campaigned down there much yet? Is there even a campaign office in SC yet? I don't remember hearing so.

After a Palin endorsement, I want a DeMint endorsement most. Then again, I want him as VP. If we can win Iowa, top 2 in NH and top 3 in South Carolina, we will be in a really good position.

I hope DeMint announces his endorsement after the forum. I did read that he apparently wants to be a kingmaker.

[puppetmaster]

I lived in SC.......many are brain dead.....

and Southern Baptist....do what the preacher man says.

[Maximus]

"Huntsman steady"? Yeah I guess 2% is steady.

[South Park Fan]

I wouldn't fret too much about any state polls after IA and NH. Last time Romney and Giuliani were leading SC in the month before IA caucuses, after which McCain and Huckabee had momentum and thus won SC while the former frontrunners faltered. Perry's position in SC will crumble, especially if he loses IA first (which is a four-way race at this point). Our most important objective should be winning IA so that Paul can build momentum into the other primaries.

[miyavi]

wow

[mwkaufman]

I wouldn't fret too much about any state polls after IA and NH. Last time Romney and Giuliani were leading SC in the month before IA caucuses, after which McCain and Huckabee had momentum and thus won SC while the former frontrunners faltered. Perry's position in SC will crumble, especially if he loses IA first (which is a four-way race at this point). Our most important objective should be winning IA so that Paul can build momentum into the other primaries.

For comparison, the August 2007 figures:

PPP - South Carolina GOP Presidential Primary Poll (http://race42012.com/2007/08/15/poll-watch-ppp-sc-gop-primary/)

Thompson – 22%
Giuliani – 18%
Romney – 17%
McCain – 11%
Huckabee – 7%
Brownback – 3%
Paul – 2%

And of course the actual results:

McCain - 33%
Huckabee - 30%
Thompson - 16%
Romney - 15%
Paul - 4%
Giuliani - 2%

So last time around, only about half of voters stuck with who they had in mind at this time in the process.

[libertybrewcity]

Perry will likely have his "polling high" for some time. he'll come down eventually.

[James Madison]

Perry will likely have his "polling high" for some time. he'll come down eventually.

For the majority of candidates I would agree with you. But, I've got a really bad feeling about Perry. It just seems like the establishment is going to make sure he wins the GOP nomination.

[TheSecretBillionaire]

Perry will likely have his "polling high" for some time. he'll come down eventually.

I think the next few debates in September are going to be key in his poll numbers going down the tubes a bit. He's the front runner no one has ever heard of.
People follow him like he's the savior of the republicans because they are repeating what MSM tells them... wait till he speaks.

[MarcNY]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HXfTkyXprg&feature=related

[GunnyFreedom]

SC is very pro-military. the message that needs to be articulated is that Ron Paul will re-open Charleston SC for business, and that a Constitutional foreign policy is actually STRONGER for defense than our current policy. Economic prosperity + stronger national defense = win for SC

Returning troops from Germany, Japan, etc will restore Charleston SC Naval base and fix SC economy. Troops back home will be in a better position to defend the US than troops in Norway. And Ron Paul is the only wholehearted Christian in the race. Push those three points and SC will start to come around.

[Brett85]

I think the next few debates in September are going to be key in his poll numbers going down the tubes a bit. He's the front runner no one has ever heard of.
People follow him like he's the savior of the republicans because they are repeating what MSM tells them... wait till he speaks.

Unfortunately, I imagine that he's probably a decent debater.

[Brett85]

SC is very pro-military. the message that needs to be articulated is that Ron Paul will re-open Charleston SC for business, and that a Constitutional foreign policy is actually STRONGER for defense than our current policy. Economic prosperity + stronger national defense = win for SC.

Yes, I wish that Ron would make his argument the way that you just did. Unfortunately, he never seems to do that.

[Lucille]

Unfortunately, I imagine that he's probably a decent debater.

I heard he's terrible, and that Medina wiped up the floor with him (and then came Beck...).

[Brett85]

I heard he's terrible, and that Medina wiped up the floor with him (and then came Beck...).

I guess we'll find out next Wednesday.

[Ronpauljones]

Has Paul been campaigning in SC and does he have an office there yet?

[Lucille]

I guess we'll find out next Wednesday.

They talk about his lack of skills here: http://www.kxan.com/dpp/news/politics/looking-back-at-perrys-debating-past


“Perry is not the best debater that we've seen,” Burka added. “That's one reason why he wouldn't debate Bill White. He clearly would have been chewed up on state issues."

"His handlers appear uncomfortable about allowing him to appear unscripted,” former Houston Mayor Bill White said in 2010.

In last year's gubernatorial election, Perry refused to debate Democrat White, because White would not release some of his tax returns.

Before that, many insiders said one of his GOP opponents in the primary, Debra Medina, won that debate, which was 19 months ago - the last time Perry has been on such a stage.
[...]
"I'm very pleased that he's coming in, because he represents the status quo,” said opponent Congressman Ron Paul, R-Texas.