Magellan Strategies state of Iowa poll

[Agorism]

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Magellan-Iowa-2012-Presidential-Republican-Caucus-Survey-Topline-Results-0825111.pdf


PRESIDENT – IOWA – GOP CAUCUS (Magellan)
Rick perry 24%
Michele Bachmann 22%
Mitt Romney 19%
Ron Paul 9%
Herman Cain 6%
Rick Santorum 4%
Newt Gingrich 4%
Jon Huntsman 1%



This poll was done August 22-23 among 676 likely voters.

[bluesc]

What's with all these awful polls lately? 40% of those polled are 65+? and only 19% of them were 18-35?

[JohnGalt23g]

What's with all these awful polls lately? 40% of those polled are 65+? and only 19% of them were 18-35?

I hate to be the one to tell you this, but that is a very likely caucus turnout picture.

[michaelkellenger]

This ups RP's Real Clear Politics average in Iowa to 10%. So that's good!

[Bender22]

What's with all these awful polls lately? 40% of those polled are 65+? and only 19% of them were 18-35?

It looks like only 9% 18-34 and 19% 18-44.

[orenbus]

This was the breakdown of the caucus in 2008:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Republican_caucuses,_2008

And scroll down on this page to see the polls preceding the caucus:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

We need more resources and boots on the ground in Iowa.

[bluesc]

It looks like only 9% 18-34 and 19% 18-44.

Yep, you're right. That's even worse.

[Cleaner44]

Magellan Strategies Poll: Ron Paul in 3rd place at 14% in NH Republican Presidential Primary
August 17, 2011

In the New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary, the NH Journal survey conducted by Magellan Strategies shows Ron Paul in 3rd place behind Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. Michele Bachmann is polling in 4th place, 4% behind Ron Paul.

Magellan Strategies Poll:

Romney – 36%
Perry – 18%
Paul – 14%
Bachmann – 10%
Cain – 3%
Huntsman – 3%
Gingrich – 2%
Santorum – 1%

Read more: NH Journal

Source: Magellan Strategies
http://thecaseforronpaul.wordpress.com/2011/08/17/magellan-strategies-poll-ron-paul-in-3rd-place-at-14/

[Cleaner44]

Rasmussen Reports: Iowa Caucus, Bachmann, Romney and Paul on Top
August 10, 2011

Rasmussen Reports latest poll on the Iowa Caucus has Ron Paul in 3rd Place!

Michele Bachmann 22%
Mitt Romney 21%
Ron Paul 16%
Rick Perry 12%

In the Iowa caucus race for the Republican presidential nomination, five candidates are in double digits, and many voters are open to changing their mind before caucus day arrives.

http://thecaseforronpaul.wordpress.com/2011/08/10/rasmussen-reports-iowa-caucus-bachmann-romney-and-paul-on-top/

[Agorism]

Magellan Strategies Poll: Ron Paul in 3rd place at 14% in NH Republican Presidential Primary
August 17, 2011

In the New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary, the NH Journal survey conducted by Magellan Strategies shows Ron Paul in 3rd place behind Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. Michele Bachmann is polling in 4th place, 4% behind Ron Paul.

Magellan Strategies Poll:

Romney – 36%
Perry – 18%
Paul – 14%
Bachmann – 10%
Cain – 3%
Huntsman – 3%
Gingrich – 2%
Santorum – 1%

Read more: NH Journal

Source: Magellan Strategies
http://thecaseforronpaul.wordpress.com/2011/08/17/magellan-strategies-poll-ron-paul-in-3rd-place-at-14/

That wasn't released today right?

[Cleaner44]

That wasn't released today right?

For your ease and convenience I bolded the date... August 17, 2011

[Agorism]

For your ease and convenience I bolded the date... August 17, 2011

I saw it. Lots of times the polls get conducted and released a week later.

I actually assumed it was old, but I wasn't sure.

[Cleaner44]

I saw it. Lots of times the polls get conducted and released a week later.

I actually assumed it was old, but I wasn't sure.

The interviews were conducted August 15-16. Released August 17.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/62505780/New-Hampshire-2012-Republican-Primary-Survey-Topline-Results-081711

[1836]

Survey is going to skew against us because it did not include independents, and likely underrepresented middle-aged voters.

[dunnemarogra]

That Poll is not right

[Brett85]

Survey is going to skew against us because it did not include independents, and likely underrepresented middle-aged voters.

I thought only Republicans could vote in the Iowa caucus?

[Brett85]

That Poll is not right

Welcome to the forums! What specifically about the poll doesn't look right?

[Johncjackson]

This was the breakdown of the caucus in 2008:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Republican_caucuses,_2008

And scroll down on this page to see the polls preceding the caucus:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

We need more resources and boots on the ground in Iowa.

THIS.

Guys, look at the polls/results from 2008. Except for a 4% mini-surge by Fred Thompson, the polls were pretty accurate, mostly within 1%, and places 1-6 were exactly right except fro Thompson edging out McCain for 3rd.

It's 4 years past the time to stop blaming the polls and start trying to win.

[BUSHLIED]

What's with all these awful polls lately? 40% of those polled are 65+? and only 19% of them were 18-35?

This is what I have been arguing since day one...the youth vote is relatively small...65+ individuals are the money makers...Ron has got to reach this group of people...break their resistance...or he can kiss the large primary state good-bye.

[sailingaway]

Survey is going to skew against us because it did not include independents, and likely underrepresented middle-aged voters.

this, and I'm putting on my tin foil hat and wondering if that were intentional since everyone knows independents slant towards Ron, and against Perry (the GOP's new establishment love) and that registration can be changed right at the caucus itself....(but don't count on it, what if they don't bring enough forms or something?) But Magellan is the pollster for the GOP, isn't it? So maybe they specifically wanted to know what current GOP - not conservative independents who might vote GOP - were saying.

Also the caucus breakdown in 2008 that we should be looking at is the one on the Dem side where the supposed anti=war civil liberties candidate was, at that time.

[mosquitobite]

I hate to be the one to tell you this, but that is a very likely caucus turnout picture.

People do not understand that the old folks are the ones who have been doing this [caucuses] for DECADES. They know HOW to do it. If we want to win in Iowa Ron has got to work harder at appealing to the old folks. ;)

[Agorism]

I've noticed it's hard to find old posts about polls. Do we need a polling section of the website?

[cero]

well around this time back in 07 we were at 1% and we ended with 10x the support
hxxp://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html#polls
ya I'm not saying we are going to end up with 90%, but our support did grow by at least 10%, last go around, and we are gaining ground fast this election.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNtDomyAjc0

[mtmedlin]

We need top 3 in Iowa or its over. I really want the grassroots to focus on Iowa. Renting buses or cars to get people to the caucus. Flying people up there that can work. The caucus is rigged and its very hard for RP to win or even get in top three but its critical. Its going to be a five way race by the time it comes around. I fully expect Huntsman, Gingrich and Santorum to drop before hand. My gut tells me Perry might win it. Iowa has a history of choosing the "hot" looney at the time, last time it was Gomer Pyle from Arkansas. We need to beat out bachman and Cain. Herman might give Paul an endorsement but I am afraid that he may go with Perry if he wins. Bachman will drop if she is in fourth, especially if its a distant fourth, which i suspect.

Its going to be REALLY hard to overcome Mitts spending. 3rd place and where still in this, 2nd and were a serious force to be reckoned with and we will get non stop national coverage....fourth and its all over but the crying. We need to hit this like there are no other states but Iowa and NH.

[mtmedlin]

well around this time back in 07 we were at 1% and we ended with 10x the support
hxxp://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html#polls
ya I'm not saying we are going to end up with 90%, but our support did grow by at least 10%, last go around, and we are gaining ground fast this election.

If were at 20% or more, then I am happy...notice that there is 13% undecided. We have alot of room to pick up more and when the field narrows RP will have more time to talk during debates.

[cero]

^^ we are at 16% in Iowa it is a 4 way tie at this point