PPP - National GOP Presidential Primary Poll

[tsai3904]

National (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/perry-leads-nationally.html)
8/18 - 8/21
663 usual Republican primary voters
+/-3.8%

With Palin:

Perry 27%
Romney 17%
Palin 13%
Bachmann 10%
Cain 7%
Gingrich 7%
Paul 6%
Santorum 3%
Huntsman 2%


Without Palin:

Perry 33%
Romney 20%
Bachmann 16%
Gingrich 8%
Paul 6%
Cain 6%
Santorum 4%
Huntsman 3%


Ron Paul Crosstabs With Palin (Without Palin):

18 to 29 - 4% (4%)
30 to 45 - 12% (10%)
46 to 65 - 5% (5%)
Older than 65 - 4% (2%)


Man 7% (7%)
Woman 6% (4%)


Results from last National poll:

National (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/07/bachmann-continues-to-surge.html)
7/15 - 7/17
730
+/-3.6%

With Palin:

Romney 20%
Bachmann 16%
Palin 12%
Perry 11%
Cain 10%
Paul 9%
Gingrich 6%
Pawlenty 5%
Huntsman 2%


Without Palin:

Bachmann 21%
Romney 20%
Perry 12%
Cain 11%
Paul 9%
Gingrich 7%
Pawlenty 5%
Huntsman 3%


Ron Paul Crosstabs With Palin (Without Palin):

18 to 29 - 19% (14%)
30 to 45 - 16% (17%)
46 to 65 - 7% (7%)
Older than 65 - 4% (4%)


Man 11% (10%)
Woman 6% (8%)

[Tunink]

I'm having a hard time believing those numbers.

[LibertyPhanatic]

Hmmm, yeah...I'll take the Gallup results over these...

[teacherone]

I'm having a hard time believing those numbers.

those sound about right actually.

[trey4sports]

What really matters is how things are going in Iowa. We are a front-runner and we CAN translate an Iowa win into national victory.

[IndianaPolitico]

Hmmm, 6%? The new Gallup poll shows Ron Paul in 3rd place with 13%.

[RP Supporter]

Meh. The only numbers that matter now are the first three or four contests. And Paul's doing great in those.

Also, PPP's behavior is crazy here. I never believed they had an ulterior motive, but I'm starting too. Hell, after their Iowa pll there was no reason not to include him in the general match ups, considering he always polls reliability poorly in their polls.

[teacherone]

Hmmm, 6%? The new Gallup poll shows Ron Paul in 3rd place with 13%.

gallup included indies.

this one is usual repubs. sounds right.

[ProfNo]

Hmmm, 6%? The new Gallup poll shows Ron Paul in 3rd place with 13%.

This; something is wrong here; well beyond the margin of error.

[Aliangel]

This is clearly a BS poll

[Epic]

Gallup's poll is more reputable. Larger sample size. And better reputation.

I think PPP is lowballing him here.

[teacherone]

Gallup's poll is more reputable. Larger sample size. And better reputation.

I think PPP is lowballing him here.

but they're polls of two entirely different populations!

Gallup:
Republicans and Republican-leaning independents

PPP:
Usual Republican primary voters

[Aliangel]

but they're polls of two entirely different populations!

Dude there's no way cain leads Ron amongst republicans

[LibertyEsq]

I noticed PPP asked about Ron Paul's favorability LAST out of all the candidates. I'm sure they weren't trying to imply anything there to the voters?

[tsai3904]

Dude there's no way cain leads Ron amongst republicans

There is a margin of error of 3.8%.

[Agorism]

Did you mean "without Palin"

I still think PPP does something weird like not including his name as an actual choice, and the people need to do a write in type thing to choose him.

[StilesBC]

Gotta love the cognitive dissonance on these boards.

[jonhowe]

How are these numbers the exact OPPOSITE of the Gallup numbers? Ron WINS in 18-29 there, loses big here?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/149180/Perry-Zooms-Front-Pack-2012-GOP-Nomination.aspx

[teacherone]

Gotta love the cognitive dissonance on these boards.

meaning what exactly?

[tsai3904]

I still think PPP does something weird like not including his name as an actual choice, and the people need to do a write in type thing to choose him.

Since they do national polls every month, I wonder how many respondents are repeat responders in their polls. If there are a lot of repeats, then technically they could have chosen to call certain people from previous months polls and know who they will more likely vote for.

[Agorism]

Something is seriously wrong with PPP's national polling.

I just don't what it is..

[NYgs23]

If Gallup was polling independents along with Republicans while PPP was polling only "likely Republican primary voters," that makes PPP a more accurate gauge, I think, unfortunately.

On the other hand, that also applies to the 16% in Iowa number, which is more important. The national polls are more important perception-wise and in that regard, the one is as good as the other.

[PaulConventionWV]

Gotta love the cognitive dissonance on these boards.

It's not cognitive dissonance. Every poll is at odds with this one. Why should we trust this one? It is way outside of what others have him at. There has to be a reason for that. Ron Paul doesn't just lose half his votes in a couple of weeks.

[parocks]

those sound about right actually.

4% - 18-29 - I don't buy it.

[Billay]

Something is seriously wrong with PPP's national polling.

I just don't what it is..

Maybe it's supporters telling them they hope they get hit by a hurricane?

[JohnGalt23g]

Guys, try to keep in mind that even in a perfect polling world, 1 out of 20 of those polls is going to produce results outside the margin of error. That's why RCP aggregates them, to smooth any errors out over time. The key is to look at the trends over time, and right now, the good Doctor is trending the right way. This poll notwithstanding.

[Brett85]

gallup included indies.

this one is usual repubs. sounds right.

That's true, but simply adding independents to the poll shouldn't make it jump from 6% to 13%. At most adding independents might make a 2% difference. PPP has always had some erratic polls.