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View Full Version : What do you think about us paying for our own national poll? Let's talk about this...




Cleaner44
08-24-2011, 12:30 AM
I have a fairly high opinion of Rasmussen Reports but we can not hire them.

Does Rasmussen Reports Do Paid Polling?
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/faqs
Rasmussen Reports does not do commissioned surveys. When we get requests to do so, which happens frequently, we refer people to Pulse Opinion Research, a separate company that licenses polling methodology developed by Scott Rasmussen. POR does all of the fieldwork for Rasmussen Reports. Over the years, that company and its predecessors have provided services to an array of businesses, special interest groups and political parties. In the political arena, Pulse has rendered its services to campaigns for all parties, with slightly more revenue coming from Democrats than Republicans. For more information about Pulse, log on to www.pulseopinionresearch.com.

We could hire Pulse Opinion Research. Check out their rates:
https://www.pulseopinionresearch.com/Surveys

I want to know about a race between just Romney, Perry Paul and Bachmann.

What do you guys think?

bluesc
08-24-2011, 05:17 AM
I was thinking about that for a while. It's a good idea. If enough people supported it, someone could start a chipin.

ETA: You'd probably have to add Cain and Newt, just to compare to other polls, especially the latest PPP one.

sailingaway
08-24-2011, 07:04 AM
I think Fox News is a big client of Pulse and that I'm not sure whose side they'd be on.... To the extend polling paramaters permit a side, which the do to some extent.

LinuxJedi
08-24-2011, 07:36 AM
I think polling can be biased by the design of the experiment and the sample. I think an independent poll is a good idea, but I would highly suggest that the community looks to university faculty to design it... I don't trust the people who say "oh, you want Ron Paul in here... okay, give us $4k and we'll do it..."... it allows them make money off of us for bad behavior, and gives them the ability to manipulate results in the report.

So far as I know, polling is going to require design of the experiment and questions... figuring out what a "random sample" really is, contacting these people and then the final analysis... most of which can be done by volunteers here in collaboration with a knowledgeable statistician, but it would lack the "credibility" of these firms in the eyes of the media.

Perhaps the best option to deal with these polls that omit Ron Paul is to really scrutinize their methods... and hit them where it hurts. Find a credible statistician from a university to go over their results and share their thoughts. If a professional statistician finds flaws in their methods... it will hurt them in the marketplace to get that criticism. If that professional finds everything was sound, then it might have just been a bad sample. If you want a truly objective opinion, get a statistician from outside the US who has nothing to gain or lose from personal bias... and if they have evidence of bad statistics pay for a press release?

sailingaway
08-24-2011, 07:40 AM
I think polling can be biased by the design of the experiment and the sample. I think an independent poll is a good idea, but I would highly suggest that the community looks to university faculty to design it... I don't trust the people who say "oh, you want Ron Paul in here... okay, give us $4k and we'll do it..."... it allows them make money off of us for bad behavior, and gives them the ability to manipulate results in the report.

So far as I know, polling is going to require design of the experiment and questions... figuring out what a "random sample" really is, contacting these people and then the final analysis... most of which can be done by volunteers here in collaboration with a knowledgeable statistician, but it would lack the "credibility" of these firms in the eyes of the media.

Perhaps the best option to deal with these polls that omit Ron Paul is to really scrutinize their methods... and hit them where it hurts. Find a credible statistician from a university to go over their results and share their thoughts. If a professional statistician finds flaws in their methods... it will hurt them in the marketplace to get that criticism. If that professional finds everything was sound, then it might have just been a bad sample. If you want a truly objective opinion, get a statistician from outside the US who has nothing to gain or lose from personal bias... and if they have evidence of bad statistics pay for a press release?

This is precisely what I proposed regarding PPP and I think we should look at their polling over all. Clearly they aren't unbiased, the are a declared Dem polling company. However, within that, I literally think they have targetted Ron as a 'particular problem' in the GOP field because of the way he could pull activists from supporting the dem side, on top of raw polling numbers. We all know a bunch of voters simply don't show up, and that is not going it be the activists, particularly impacting caucus states, as Obama proved to Hillary.

As to US v foreign, the name needs to be very reputable. Query whether a foreign statistician would command that support, or would be open to a 'what do they know about our polls, they are British' type comment (regardless of how unfounded.) If it is a name that is sufficiently reputable in the field that it couldn't be brushed off, that wouldl be fine.

Cleaner44
08-24-2011, 09:13 AM
I think Fox News is a big client of Pulse and that I'm not sure whose side they'd be on.... To the extend polling paramaters permit a side, which the do to some extent.

Well the cool thing about paying for our own poll is that we should get unbiased results. I am not worried about the Pulse being employed by Fox. If you or I hire them as an independant person, they have no idea who our favorite candidate is. They should return honest results. They use Rasmussen methods so I think they would deliver a quality product.

harikaried
08-24-2011, 09:28 AM
Other groups like Rasmussen and Gallup are running national polls anyway.

What would we gain from running our own polls? Sure, you might be able to answer some question now, but the answer will change as time goes on. And what can't you answer with existing data?

Why not spend the money towards local activism and promoting Ron Paul at events like farmers markets?

sailingaway
08-24-2011, 09:31 AM
Well the cool thing about paying for our own poll is that we should get unbiased results. I am not worried about the Pulse being employed by Fox. If you or I hire them as an independant person, they have no idea who our favorite candidate is. They should return honest results. They use Rasmussen methods so I think they would deliver a quality product.

I think if they've massaged a poll base for Fox's regular polls and they do those monthly, they aren't going to create a contrary poll base for a one time pollster. I'd suspect they'd use the same one.

sailingaway
08-24-2011, 09:34 AM
Other groups like Rasmussen and Gallup are running national polls anyway.

What would we gain from running our own polls? Sure, you might be able to answer some question now, but the answer will change as time goes on. And what can't you answer with existing data?

Why not spend the money towards local activism and promoting Ron Paul at events like farmers markets?

I think addressing the polls is important, but I'd do it with a statistical analysis of why the national pollster's vary (particularly PPP), then have a press release incluiding the findings of a respected statistician, as suggested in another thread. a poll commissioned by supporters might well be discounted. Ron does have a very good internal pollling company.

V3n
08-24-2011, 09:40 AM
I don't think MSM would report on a privately sponsored poll, there's enough Nationally recognized polls to go around.
I'd put our time & treasure towards something else.
IMO

Cleaner44
08-24-2011, 09:41 AM
I think if they've massaged a poll base for Fox's regular polls and they do those monthly, they aren't going to create a contrary poll base for a one time pollster. I'd suspect they'd use the same one.

What you are suggesting is that Pulse does dishonest work because Fox hires them. Do you have any credible reason for this suggestion?

bluesc
08-24-2011, 09:47 AM
I don't think MSM would report on a privately sponsored poll, there's enough Nationally recognized polls to go around.
I'd put our time & treasure towards something else.
IMO

I don't think that's the reason to do it. The campaign hired their own polling company, I don't think it will hurt for the grassroots to see some honest numbers, especially after how bad these numbers from PPP are looking to be.

I do absolutely agree though that we should find someone credible to take a look at the detailed info from the PPP national poll.

RonPaul101.com
08-24-2011, 10:45 AM
I think you could get an affordable, unbaised poll out of robopolling.

V3n
08-24-2011, 10:57 AM
I don't think that's the reason to do it. The campaign hired their own polling company, I don't think it will hurt for the grassroots to see some honest numbers, especially after how bad these numbers from PPP are looking to be.

I do absolutely agree though that we should find someone credible to take a look at the detailed info from the PPP national poll.

Thanks - I got caught up in the mindset "MUST CREATE NEWS" without thinking about how the numbers could be used for other purposes. +1

tsai3904
08-24-2011, 11:02 AM
I do absolutely agree though that we should find someone credible to take a look at the detailed info from the PPP national poll.

PPP is not going to tell anyone how they conduct their polls other than this statement that they include in every poll:


PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

bluesc
08-24-2011, 11:08 AM
PPP is not going to tell anyone how they conduct their polls other than this statement that they include in every poll:

They release a PDF at the bottom of each post when they announce poll results.

As sailingaway has pointed out, that had enough info the discount the Texas poll.

hueylong
08-24-2011, 11:15 AM
If the campaign wants / needs a national poll -- they can definitely afford the $10 - $15K. At this point, they're likely focused on the early states - IA, NH, SC & NV. We should stay out of it.

ninepointfive
08-24-2011, 11:23 AM
off topic: cleaner, delete some of your old pm's to free up your inbox!

PastaRocket848
08-24-2011, 11:39 AM
what is the intended benefit of running our own poll? just to know for sure what our support level is? it certainly wouldn't get us any positive media if Ron came out on top, the media would just say it was biased because we paid for it.

Eric21ND
08-24-2011, 11:41 AM
Screw funding a national poll. I'd rather see republican primary voter focus groups in Iowa, NH, SC, etc. I'd love to pick their brains and find out how they are viewing the race at this point in time.

And no, not a Frank Lunz style focus group. A C-SPAN type focus group that is much more in depth, and real.

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/HartRe

LinuxJedi
08-24-2011, 10:11 PM
Just remember with statistics that there is the truth, and the "truth". I'm not a statistician myself, but some of my friends (who can endure it more than I) are always complaining about how most experiments are just plain wrong. Do polling results really influence voters, however? If we believe we can accomplish something, then let's go all out... get the A-Team of statisticians to kick their arse and pay for a press release to show bias. But if that something we accomplish will not help get Ron Paul the nomination, forget about it :-)

Interestingly enough, I think that people like to report on statistical studies because it makes them feel smart. Perhaps this would get some media attention, but it certainly would not benefit Ron Paul... it would be a curiosity to a few people who like to read articles about such things to feel smart.

parocks
08-24-2011, 11:11 PM
I think you could get an affordable, unbaised poll out of robopolling.

hire rp08orbust

Cleaner44
08-24-2011, 11:32 PM
off topic: cleaner, delete some of your old pm's to free up your inbox!

Space created!

Paul4Prez
08-25-2011, 12:29 AM
I recall the Libertarian Party commissioning Rasmussen polls in 2004, so the LP candidate would be included. They targeted states that other firms weren't yet polling, which resulted in media coverage of the results when Rasmussen released them.

Go for it, and yes, drop Newt, Cain, and Santorum -- they are not viable, and will drop out early.

Maybe poll Kentucky, or Pennsylvania, or Maine...

AdamT
08-25-2011, 12:33 AM
You could include some interesting questions in the poll that you would never see otherwise.

Q: Which of the following Republican presidential candidates best represent the status quo?

Q: Which of the following Republican presidential candidates is best known as a candidate of the people?

You get the idea.

Crickett
08-25-2011, 12:29 PM
Well the cool thing about paying for our own poll is that we should get unbiased results. I am not worried about the Pulse being employed by Fox. If you or I hire them as an independant person, they have no idea who our favorite candidate is. They should return honest results. They use Rasmussen methods so I think they would deliver a quality product.

Huh? If we are paying for a poll, we should get biased results like everyone else does. Pick our own demographic to place in small print at the bottom..like (poll conducted on 100 people who frequent political websites, or people who expressed interest in ending the fed) or somesuch like that..LOL

Carole
08-25-2011, 01:22 PM
Seems a waste to pay for a poll.

Lots of information here:

national election poll
http://nationalpolls.com/