What states will Ron win?

[mlee45]

Predictions for the republican primary of the easiest 5 states for Ron to Win....?

[iamse7en]

O'Reilly says (http://www.mediaite.com/tv/bill-oreilly-bets-john-stossel-that-ron-paul-cannot-win-one-presidential-primary/) none.

[low preference guy]

iowa, nh, south carolina, nevada, florida

[Warrior_of_Freedom]

iowa, nh, south carolina, nevada, florida

Nevada? Oh please, they will change the rules last minute so anyone with a name that starts with Ron and ends in Paul can't win.

[iamse7en]

http://i.imm.io/8pia.png

[djruden]

If he keeps campaigning as he did before the Straw Poll and does more visits, especially to the rural parts of Iowa and more of the small towns, not just the few bigger cities we have, I think he could be a contender in the caucus.

[Ronpauljones]

I think he has a strong chance at winning the Iowa caucus as long as Katherine Harris isn't involved.

[LibertyEsq]

we need to go all out in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada imo. We are polling very strongly in Iowa and NH especially, but for some reason our national polls have weakened. If we can win either Iowa or NH, we should get a huge boost to the campaign (not to mention fundraising)

[Alternative 336]

I think he has a good shot at winning Texas. Rick Perry supporters don't pull away from Ron Paul supporters. All of the educated people here in Texas know that Perry is a crook, so they won't vote for him.

[Fredom101]

iowa, nh, south carolina, nevada, florida

He will NOT win NH or FL.

LA is the best chance then maybe NV.

[Buchananite]

I think he has a good shot at winning Texas. Rick Perry supporters don't pull away from Ron Paul supporters. All of the educated people here in Texas know that Perry is a crook, so they won't vote for him.

Yeah I have heard Texans don't really like Perry. Maybe Nolan Ryan could campaign for Paul again?

[Ronpauljones]

Ron Paul will win Texas.

[Havax]

1) Montana (this was his best state in 2008 with 25%)
2) Louisiana
3) Idaho
4) South Dakota
5) Nevada

[AmberH]

Iowa, Texas, Nevada, Montana, Louisiana

[CaptainAmerica]

Nevada? Oh please, they will change the rules last minute so anyone with a name that starts with Ron and ends in Paul can't win.

Arizona GOP will have shills printing off 5 updated blacklists of delegates that support Ron Paul during the actual convention vote.

[Uriah]

Nevada? Yes. Ron Paul supporters are in leadership roles within the Nevada GOP. Things will go much better for Dr. Paul in Nevada.

As for my thoughts on the 7 easiest wins for Paul;

Nevada, Montana, Iowa, Idaho, Maine

I think New Hampshire and Oregon can be easy as well.

These are the states/territories Ron Paul got 2nd and 3rd respectively:

(Nevada, Montana, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, Nebraska, Oregon, Idaho, South Dakota, New Mexico, Northern Mariana Islands)

(North Dakota, Utah, Alaska, Maine, Kansas, Washington, Virginia, Wisconsin, Vermont, Rhode Island, Ohio, Texas, Mississippi, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, North Carolina, Washington DC, Puerto Rico)

[JamesButabi]

Im not ready to concede NH. I think now that the campaign HQ is open we could push a media blitz there that would dramatically alter the atmosphere.

[Buchananite]

Romney and possibly Huntsman are the only things stopping RP from winning Nevada.

[CaptainAmerica]

He will NOT win NH or FL.

LA is the best chance then maybe NV.
He will win NH if election fraud doesn't occur like 2008.

[Jingles]

He will win PA.

[Jingles]

Actually, I predict that he will win most of the northeast rather easily.

[LibertyEsq]

I will personally see to it that he wins NJ!

[thomas-in-ky]

I would hope he has a real chance at winning KY. His son won a US Senate seat here last year. (It was a landslide victory in what was essentially a three-way primary.) The presidential primary here is one of the late ones... he will need to come into this primary with momentum from some early wins in other states. I think he could possibly win WV as well... he had a decent showing there in '08.

[Steve-in-NY]

http://www.google.com/trends?q=Ron+Paul%2C+Rick+Perry%2C+Romney%2C+Bachm ann&ctab=0&geo=us&date=mtd&sort=0

Check out where he is being searched from. Interesting data that could be used to our advantage.

[realtonygoodwin]

Maybe Alasa?

[orenbus]

He will win NH if election fraud doesn't occur like 2008.

Election fraud had nothing to do with it, I was there the months leading up to the NH primary and it was painfully obvious as it was to others that we had a serious problem with the amount of supporters in NH to do the GOTV work needed to win. For more information and if you guys seriously want to win NH this time around it's going to require a lot more than speculation and playing arm chair general, check out the link in my signature.

[KingRobbStark]

I think he has a good shot at winning Texas. Rick Perry supporters don't pull away from Ron Paul supporters. All of the educated people here in Texas know that Perry is a crook, so they won't vote for him.

Let's hope they convince those who are less fortunate.

[orenbus]

Actually, I predict that he will win most of the northeast rather easily.

Your are expecting too much as things stand right now without some serious hard work.

We had the same expectation in 2007 and it turned out to be false, assumptions will only carry you part of the way the rest of the way will come from having people wake up in the morning put there comfortable sneakers on and go out to do the hard work of going door to door in the blistering winter cold to ensure victory. For example in NH we can't assume we have the hundreds and thousands of activists that are needed to do this work right now even if 1000 free staters are up there or not. Having been up there in 2007 I would estimate in order to ensure victory we would need at least 5000 people that have committed to going door to door a number of weeks and more than likely even months prior to the primary. Only then would I feel somewhat comfortable that we did everything we could to win.

I almost think the campaign should really set aside some money to hire people to go door to door to supplement what the volunteers will be doing. I hope we will have more volunteers canvasing this time around but hope only goes so far. If we had paid political operatives like for example the other campaigns had in 2007 I think it would move us closer to ensuring victory in NH and IA. And I'm not talking about coordinators that sit in the office to do administrative work. I'm talking about paid political workers that are going to go out and do the leg work that will be needed.

Let's face it seriously ask yourselves everyone that is reading this thread right now, how many of you are ready to travel hundreds of miles to go to NH and IA to pitch in? I'm guessing not that many since we all thought that would happen last go around and some people did come from around the country to the early states to help out but it was no where near the scale we needed. It's one thing to make predictions while sitting comfortably behind the keyboard without having to do much work all the while enjoying the news reports and watching the videos come in and assuming everything is fine. It's quite another to go out and do the work of spending hours upon hours knocking on thousands of doors to do what is needed. People need to start doing instead of just typing if they are serious about this campaign.

I know this will probably offend those that think the volunteers will be enough to win this thing, but if our numbers in NH of activists are even close to around the same as in 2007 I have a feeling it won't. We will need the official campaign to take lead on this and to ensure that buses and housing is there for those that want to help and hire locals that are looking for a job to go door to door and hand out materials and take names of those committed to vote for Ron Paul. GOTV isn't just an abbrevation for something that is on television lol, there are some tried and tested strategies that have been used for decades to win elections. Unless we wake up to the fact that someone (meaning you, the person reading this thread) is going to have to do some work around here to get Ron Paul in the white house... ...well I'll just leave it at that.

[mello]

Nevada? Oh please, they will change the rules last minute so anyone with a name that starts with Ron and ends in Paul can't win.

He should release an ad in Nevada about the legislation in repeatedly introduced for online gambling & no taxing of tips.

[pacu44]

He will NOT win NH or FL.

LA is the best chance then maybe NV.

I will do my part to get that LA win =}~

[No Free Beer]

Iowa

[AgentOrange]

Which states have pure electronic voting with no paper record? It's pretty unlikely he will win any of those states.

[Paul4Prez]

For the 2008 results, scroll over the map here:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?f=0&year=2008&elect=2

Ron Paul's best states in 2008 were:

Idaho 23% (primary)
Montana 21% (primary), 24% (caucus part)
North Dakota 21% (caucus)
Washington 21% (caucus part, 7% primary part)
Alaska 17% (caucus)

In 2012, he will do the best in the Western states once again, but should also do better in Iowa and New Hampshire. He will also do much better in Kentucky (thanks to Rand) and Pennsylvania, where he earned 15% last time.

[libertybrewcity]

every state is up for grabs. with the right mixture of door to door and tv ads, we can take it all.

[Paul4Prez]

What states will Ron Paul win? These:

http://www.mapstoreonline.com/emapstore/usa_map2.jpg

[SDMF]

I agree!
What states will Ron Paul win? These:

http://www.mapstoreonline.com/emapstore/usa_map2.jpg

[Canderson]

He does't poll near the top in LA or Nevada, how can it be that those are states he'll probably win?

[Paul4Prez]

He does't poll near the top in LA or Nevada, how can it be that those are states he'll probably win?

He did very well in Louisiana and Nevada last time, not in the primaries but in the conventions and caucuses where many of the delegates are actually picked. We are more a part of the power structure now than a completely alien force like we were last time.

[orenbus]

Only way we can win NH and I'm going to assume most other preliminary states is if we have this x1000:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8R8CGUa8Ak


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGTwHvehP50

Some quotes from a dedicated member Operation Live Free or Die back in early December 2007:


we do not have near enough people yet, we do need A LOT MORE boots on the ground, please if u know someone that can take a week or two off work SEND THEM TO ME so i can get them up here.


right now we have about 40 people canvassing door to door SEVEN DAYS A WEEK not just on weekends... thats what OFLD is all about, getting people up here to help us... 40 people can not cover this state in the next month, we do have more coming, a lot more, i think 100 or so for sure are coming for the entire month and another 100 are coming for at least 2 weeks but thats not enough we need 1,000 people here canvassing 7 days a week

A thousand people was an estimate that I agreed with back then, but thinking now that most people can only really make it up there on weekends it's probably closer to at least 2000 or 3000. Without some strong and serious organization by either the official campaign to do this like starting now or from some major donor willing to sponsor activists to come from different parts of the country now sure how this is possible but it is serious work that needs to start happening soon. Grassroots needs to take this on if the official campaign can't or won't so someone will need to step up to the plate to keep NH in play, rest of you guys need to do something as well to help the early states out now. Don't get me wrong funding for commercials and media coverage is important but so is the physical boots on the ground work.

You would be surprised (or maybe not) at how many Americans are out of touch with primaries/caucuses even in states like New Hampshire and Iowa which are states with citizens that supposedly take elections more seriously. Most Americans just live there lives and unless someone literally knocks on their door to let them know what is going on they won't know what is possible and how we can change the country for the better. Don't let us repeat 2007 we need lots of people in the early states to combat Romney's money which you know he will be using to hire people, other candidates may go to the churches to look for volunteers like Huckabee did. We need to come up with actionable ideas to this challenge now instead of just assuming we will win states.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9X5yWWlb2U
(Just showing this as an example of what needs to happen, this was a project in 2007-2008 and currently inactive, although I would like to see the official campaign lead an operation like this since it is so closely tied to canvassing, calls, etc. which the official campaign will be leading anyway in those states they can also hire people to help supplement the volunteers so that the numbers are there to make a difference. Otherwise someone in the grassroots needs to take this on to get the volunteers to where they need to be, 40 or 100 people per state is not enough.)

[BUSHLIED]

1) Montana (this was his best state in 2008 with 25%)
2) Louisiana
3) Idaho
4) South Dakota
5) Nevada

Not enough to win the nomination or even make a dent in other candidates...He must win one or two of the following: TEXAS, CALIFORNIA, OHIO, PENN, or Georgia...

[ForLibertyFight]

iowa, nh, south carolina, nevada, florida

I was going to say the same thing!

[Restore-America-NOW]

Iowa, Montana, Louisiana, Washington, Nevada are nearly definite wins. Pennsylvania, Indiana, South Carolina, Idaho, Maine and Texas are all within our grasps as well.

[Elwar]

The lower 48 as well as Hawaii and Alaska.

[JamesButabi]

I got Rhode Island on lock! Ive identified 143 people. Only about 31,000 more to beat the theoretical John McCain from 2008 assuming our support has not grown one inkling! :p

[Uriah]

Very interesting.

1. Iowa, United States
2. New Hampshire, United States
3. Arkansas, United States
4. Oklahoma, United States
5. Nebraska, United States
6. Kansas, United States
7. Mississippi, United States
8. Nevada, United States
9. Louisiana, United States
10. Tennessee, United States

http://www.google.com/trends?q=Ron+Paul%2C+Rick+Perry%2C+Romney%2C+Bachm ann&ctab=0&geo=us&date=mtd&sort=0

Check out where he is being searched from. Interesting data that could be used to our advantage.

[Shane Harris]

i will help contribute to the ron paul vote in PA. and ive convinced my family and girlfriend and some others to do the same. So i know we will get at least 6 or 7 votes lol

[Shane Harris]

and btw, even if we grab say 14 percent of the national vote in the primary, how can the republican establishment continue to ignore us? they will fall every time if they choose to saw off 15 percent of their party.

[MarcNY]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnIJAa4xtAM

[Paul4Prez]

iowa, nh, south carolina, nevada, florida

Iowa yes, New Hampshire yes, Nevada certainly.
South Carolina and Florida will be very tough -- loads of neocons and older voters.

Pennsylvania and Maine are more up our alley.

[Paul4Prez]

Not enough to win the nomination or even make a dent in other candidates...He must win one or two of the following: TEXAS, CALIFORNIA, OHIO, PENN, or Georgia...

It depends on whether they are winner-take-all or proportional. Does anyone know?

[Paul4Prez]

Here's a good site with the preliminary schedule and cumulative delegate counts:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/ccad.phtml

[eleganz]

Ron Paul will win TEXAS.

I hope think he'll win Iowa and probably wont win NH, I'm hoping for second!

[Revolution0918]

I lived in texas for 2 years recently, its true that most R's down there hate Perry for some reason. Iowa, NH for sure should b a good bet, SC and FL are going to go to PErry, cuz their all idiots that love war and chanting USA USA. ......also see South Park's view on conservatives...."THEY TOOK R JOBS!!!!"

[Napoleon's Shadow]

http://i185.photobucket.com/albums/x93/sonicspikesalbum/Campaign%20VI/800px-2008primarycounties.png

[Napoleon's Shadow]

We win the other states by winning in the top 3 in Iowa, and by winning Nevada and NH. These 3 victories will be done by the Phone from Home program.

[KingNothing]

For the 2008 results, scroll over the map here:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?f=0&year=2008&elect=2

Ron Paul's best states in 2008 were:

Idaho 23% (primary)
Montana 21% (primary), 24% (caucus part)
North Dakota 21% (caucus)
Washington 21% (caucus part, 7% primary part)
Alaska 17% (caucus)

In 2012, he will do the best in the Western states once again, but should also do better in Iowa and New Hampshire. He will also do much better in Kentucky (thanks to Rand) and Pennsylvania, where he earned 15% last time.

My guess is that he will win the five states that you listed above. I also suspect that he can Iowa, Kentucky, Oregon and Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Nebraska, Washington.... and possibly Texas.

I don't think he's got a shot in Nevada or NH though.


All of that said, if Perry, Romney, Paul and Bachmann all stay in for the long haul this will be a VERY interesting election cycle.

An important thing to remember is that many young, independent voters cast ballots for Obama last time around. I suspect that they will break almost entirely for Paul this time around if they decide to vote.