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View Full Version : Ron Paul hits another new high on Intrade -- 9.5% chance to win the Rep. nomination




Zydeco
11-03-2007, 07:48 PM
Ron Paul is now at 9.5% chance to win the Republican nomination on Intrade, putting him comfortably in third place behind Giuliani and Romney.

Meanwhile, Soledad O'Brien, who probably can't name either of her two senators, asks him on CNN: "If you don't start getting the numbers soon, when do you decide to drop out?"

Fred Thompson continues his McCain-esque slide, now at 7.7% chance to get the nomination. Check out Freddy's chart for the past month, since he appeared in his first debate:

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=462622&tradeURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.intrade.com&sent=&dataType=on&timePeriodType=LastMonth&recentlyDays=14&chartSize=L&volume=on&chartType=CP&priceBand=None&movingAv1Type=None&movingAv1Slices=10&movingAv2Type=None&movingAv2Slices=25&indicator1=None&indicator2=None&indicator3=None&indicator4=None&Button1=Update+Chart

Totals:

Giuliani 38.1%
Romney 28.7%
Paul 9.5%
Thompson 7.7%
McCain 7.0%
Huckabee 5.6%

OptionsTrader
11-03-2007, 08:19 PM
That's a pretty illiquid spread, with a bid/ask of 8.1/9.4. Looks like someone was willing to pay up at the ask, that's an encouraging sign. The thing is, if anyone sells even a single contract, the trade will probably be closer to 8.1 than 9.5. Definately shows there is demand. It will be really cool when both the bid/ask both start popping above 10%.

Zydeco
11-03-2007, 08:21 PM
That's a pretty illiquid spread, with a bid/ask of 8.1/9.4. Looks like someone was willing to pay up at the ask, that's an encouraging sign. The thing is, if anyone sells even a single contract, the trade will probably be closer to 8.1 than 9.5. Definately shows there is demand. It will be really cool when both the bid/ask both start popping above 10%.

I'm guessing Nov. 6th, for obvious reasons :cool:

terlinguatx
11-03-2007, 08:22 PM
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aspiringconstitutionalist
11-04-2007, 04:59 PM
Wow, third place on Intrade. And RealClearPolitics.com's Republican nomination graph still includes Fred's, McCain's, and Huckabee's Intrade numbers and not Paul's. Hmm.

Avalon
11-04-2007, 05:08 PM
Wow, third place on Intrade. And RealClearPolitics.com's Republican nomination graph still includes Fred's, McCain's, and Huckabee's Intrade numbers and not Paul's. Hmm.

big surprise.

but the NH primary numbers at intrade look very depressing.

aspiringconstitutionalist
11-04-2007, 05:34 PM
big surprise.

but the NH primary numbers at intrade look very depressing.

Patience. "He's catching on, I'm tellin' ya," but if you know anything about the futures market, it takes a wee bit longer for traders to catch on.

OptionsTrader
11-04-2007, 06:02 PM
Intrade has been a leading indicator of the USA Today Gallup poll. The numbers show up on intrade before a move up in real poll numbers. Sort of like unusual stock options market activity before an earnings release or FDA apporval.

Avalon
11-04-2007, 07:19 PM
Patience. "He's catching on, I'm tellin' ya," but if you know anything about the futures market, it takes a wee bit longer for traders to catch on.

Well, since him winning the nomination pretty much depends on a good showing in NH (his strongest state and the first primary), his odds in NH should be better than than those for him winning the nomination, and much better than they are.

STA654
11-04-2007, 07:24 PM
People should be buying Ron Paul winning New Hampshire stocks ASAP.

I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but it's a good bargain.

johngr
11-05-2007, 08:09 AM
Well, since him winning the nomination pretty much depends on a good showing in NH (his strongest state and the first primary), his odds in NH should be better than than those for him winning the nomination, and much better than they are.

An arbitrage possibly, perhaps?

terlinguatx
11-05-2007, 06:05 PM
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