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View Full Version : This November 5th Projection - \$4+ mil

Taco John
11-03-2007, 04:32 PM
I just thought I'd share my projection for This November 5th. I'm very excited about this, and can't wait to see how it turns out.

I've come up with a formula to project how much money might be raised on this day. Of course there's no telling how accurate the formula really is until the money comes in, but if MSM polling is "scientific," then this might as well be... :D

My projection is as such:

First, I take the official number of subscribers (as of 11/3 at 3:08pm PST):
16,896

These are people who went through the trouble to sign up. You can figure that a very healthy percentage of them will follow through. I'll run some calculations on this number down the line.

There are a number of folks who have seen the site, and plan to donate, but did not subscribe. Having been a webmaster for a long time, I can estimate a conversion rate of a conservative 3% (I think it could be as high as 5%, but since we're conservatives here...) So to get this 3% here's what I do:

Total number of visitors (223,371) - Total subscribers (16,896) = 206,475

I then take 3% of this 206,475 number to get 6,194 donors who have not signed up but plan to donate. (at the 5% high end, we have 10,323)

I now add the numbers together:
16,896 subscribers plus 6,194 non-subscribing donators = 23,090 donors

Now this is where it gets really tricky and I am making some guesses here... Some people are going to donate more, and some are going to donate less. Here's what I thinK:

I think 1% will donate the maximum amount on that day of \$2300 for \$531,075.

I think 5% will donate \$1000 for the total amount of \$1,154,512.

I think that another 5% will donate \$500 for the total amount of \$577,256.

I think that roughtly 79% of the people will stick to their \$100 pledges for \$1,824,129.

And I think that roughly 10% of the people wont donate at all that day (\$0).

This would bring in an estimated \$4,086,975.

If I were to use the higher-end 5% estimate from the non-subscribed donors, I come up with \$4,817,895.

Not a bad day's haul for Paul... :p

schmeisser
11-03-2007, 04:35 PM
I hope you are wrong and it comes in over 5 million :p

I'd like to see the campaign send out an email and tap all of their resources on the 5th also - I am hoping they have been holding back the offline money to dump in as well.

nullvalu
11-03-2007, 04:37 PM
I don't want to get crazy here, I'll be very happy if it exceeds 2 million.

Taco John
11-03-2007, 04:39 PM
Oh by the way, that would average a total donation amount of \$177.00 per donor.

terlinguatx
11-03-2007, 04:41 PM
We don't know whether those page visits are unique or just total. I've visited the site about 20 times and I'm sure all the core supporters have as well. Also, who knows what percent of those that signed up are serious. I haven't seen the email addresses but I'm guessing most are legit and plan on donating SOMETHING that day. Whether it be, \$5, \$50, \$100, or \$2300.
When it's all said and done I think it'll be a success if we bring in \$1 million or more -- blows away any previous single day take.

nullvalu
11-03-2007, 04:42 PM
I'm thinking the 16,000 are those who put in their email addresses, right?

Jaykzo
11-03-2007, 04:51 PM
Me and my roommate don't have \$100 to donate so we didn't sign up, however we're both donating \$25

I'm sure theres a lot of people who didn't sign up who plan on donating smaller amounts

0zzy
11-03-2007, 04:52 PM
Me and my roommate don't have \$100 to donate so we didn't sign up, however we're both donating \$25

I'm sure theres a lot of people who didn't sign up who plan on donating smaller amounts

ya, I can't donate that much so I didn't sign up either.

Hook
11-03-2007, 04:53 PM
I'm thinking the 16,000 are those who put in their email addresses, right?

Yes.
I am guessing an average of \$110/donor with about 20,000 donors. So about 2.2 million is probably more likely.

Taco John
11-03-2007, 04:53 PM
Me and my roommate don't have \$100 to donate so we didn't sign up, however we're both donating \$25

I'm sure theres a lot of people who didn't sign up who plan on donating smaller amounts

These numbers are factored in as span averages. There are several people donating \$200-\$300 who will bring up those donating \$25.

I'll be suprised if we don't break at least \$3 million.

dircha
11-03-2007, 04:54 PM
We don't know whether those page visits are unique or just total. I've visited the site about 20 times and I'm sure all the core supporters have as well. Also, who knows what percent of those that signed up are serious. I haven't seen the email addresses but I'm guessing most are legit and plan on donating SOMETHING that day. Whether it be, \$5, \$50, \$100, or \$2300.
When it's all said and done I think it'll be a success if we bring in \$1 million or more -- blows away any previous single day take.

I agree.

I think it is a success if we break \$1 million.

And I think \$1 million is maybe fairly optimistic.

If we had had more funding behind the grassroots campaign and had been able to make some professional quality marketing materials, and if we hadn't backed down at the first sign of criticism, I think it would have been much more successful than it will be.

Taco John
11-03-2007, 04:56 PM
I personally think we'll easily break \$1 million... Probably very early in the day.

Hook
11-03-2007, 04:57 PM
I agree.

I think it is a success if we break \$1 million.

And I think \$1 million is maybe fairly optimistic.

If we had had more funding behind the grassroots campaign and had been able to make some professional quality marketing materials, and if we hadn't backed down at the first sign of criticism, I think it would have been much more successful than it will be.

This is probably correct. I'll bet some fraction of the official 17,000 people have dropped out because of all the naysayers on the board.

Ron Paul Fan
11-03-2007, 04:59 PM
I agree.

I think it is a success if we break \$1 million.

And I think \$1 million is maybe fairly optimistic.

If we had had more funding behind the grassroots campaign and had been able to make some professional quality marketing materials, and if we hadn't backed down at the first sign of criticism, I think it would have been much more successful than it will be.

I agree with you. We're currently at \$2.7 million so I just hope we can get up to \$4 million overall on Monday. The campaign hasn't pumped in the offline donations for a couple weeks so that will boost us as well! Anything over \$4 million for the quarter total is gravy to me. Remember, remember the 5th of November!

Austin
11-03-2007, 05:02 PM
I think about 1/2 of the people won't donate at all. Then about a 1/4 won't donate a full 100. Then, the other 1/4 will donate between 200-2300.

I predict just over a million.

Jaykzo
11-03-2007, 05:06 PM
What is everyone's honest estimation of how the media will react to this?

I personally think it'll be just as "big" as when they found out he had \$5M. I don't feel that any news channels are really going to be emphasizing how incredible of a grassroots effort this really is.

terlinguatx
11-03-2007, 05:06 PM
ya, I can't donate that much so I didn't sign up either.

Ahh come on it's only \$100 what else do you have to do on sunday. Sign up for a shift at mcdonalds or some bar or walk around and mow some people's yard, hell, setup a lemonade stand for the day.

kylejack
11-03-2007, 05:11 PM
I'm predicting 600K. The bogus subscriber rate is going to be high, both people trying to sabotage us and people who think they're helping by lying, like that Canadian. Overdonations will not compensate for all of those. Hopefully I'm wrong, but even 600K would be good.

slantedview
11-03-2007, 05:14 PM
I don't want to get crazy here, I'll be very happy if it exceeds 2 million.

seriously

MsDoodahs
11-03-2007, 05:18 PM
I'm predicting 600K. The bogus subscriber rate is going to be high, both people trying to sabotage us and people who think they're helping by lying, like that Canadian. Overdonations will not compensate for all of those. Hopefully I'm wrong, but even 600K would be good.

Agreed.

But everything that is made is that much made, and is good.

T206
11-03-2007, 05:18 PM
I think 1% will donate the maximum amount on that day of \$2300 for \$531,075.

I think 5% will donate \$1000 for the total amount of \$1,154,512.

I think that another 5% will donate \$500 for the total amount of \$577,256.

I think that roughtly 79% of the people will stick to their \$100 pledges for \$1,824,129.

And I think that roughly 10% of the people wont donate at all that day (\$0).

This would bring in an estimated \$4,086,975.

If I were to use the higher-end 5% estimate from the non-subscribed donors, I come up with \$4,817,895.

Not a bad day's haul for Paul... :p
Come on, there is absolutely NO way that 100% of the people who signed up donate.

jgmaynard
11-03-2007, 05:22 PM
I've been saying about \$2.5M all along... Just wanted to repeat it one more time cause I know you were all missing me... ;) :D

JM

Akus
11-03-2007, 05:29 PM
I wonder if the alphabet channels and Faux News completely ignores this? Even in the face that not another living soul collects this much in this little time window....

Akus
11-03-2007, 05:31 PM
First, I take the official number of subscribers (as of 11/3 at 3:08pm PST

16,947 subscribers at 6:01 pm EST 11/3/07

porcupine
11-03-2007, 05:35 PM
I'm worried the servers won't be able to handle it. I think people should try to donate at 1:00-3:00 in the morning...off-peak hours so everyone's not trying to donate at once.

Naraku
11-03-2007, 05:36 PM
I decided to calculate what this would amount to with the most conservative estimates of real subscribers (presuming the rest to be spam bots or ineligible):

So, if we go by this estimate we're talking about \$2 million minimum and \$3.5 million max. Here's any idea for a very minimum estimate of real suscribers:

Though, I honestly think that's where you start having problems with the formula. :D

11-03-2007, 05:39 PM
I will be happy with 1 million.

Taco John
11-03-2007, 05:40 PM
Come on, there is absolutely NO way that 100% of the people who signed up donate.

Of course not. Clearly you didn't even read what I wrote. You might try that first before commenting.

Taco John
11-03-2007, 05:43 PM
I'll tell you this much:

If we can't bring in over \$1 million here, we might as well pack up and go home. We wont even make a dent in the primaries if we can't do it here.

I think the nay-sayers on this will be once again proven wrong.

TruckinMike
11-03-2007, 05:43 PM
it'll take 3 million plus to make the Main Stream news... the kind that makes it on the ABC's 6 oclock kind of news... If we dont make 3 mil... but over 1mil... political media will talk about it. The only way MSM will report it is that every other Tom, Dick and Harry and their blogger friends have reported on it first. Then they will report on it, but only so they don't look like fools. But never the less... they will report on it.:) Thats the way I see it..

Note:we need to break the Obamma/Oprah drive of 3 million.

My prediction 2 million +/- 200,000...

But I decided to up my anti to \$200 instead.

Truckinmike

Taco John
11-03-2007, 05:45 PM
Lame... Moved over to the sub forum to die.

stevedasbach
11-03-2007, 05:45 PM
it'll take 3 million plus to make the Main Stream news... the kind that makes it on the ABC's 6 oclock kind of news... If we dont make 3 mil... but over 1mil... political media will talk about it. Thats the way I see it..

My prediction 2 million +/- 200,000

I hope I'm wrong and its 3+

Truckinmike

FYI: \$2 million would put us back on track for \$12 million this quarter.

Eric21ND
11-03-2007, 05:49 PM
I say 1.7 but I'm hoping it will be a cash cow.

Karrl
11-03-2007, 06:38 PM
Yes I am hoping that Nov 5th puts the donations back on track for \$12 million. Its impossible to know how many subscribers signed up just to inflate expectations. I recently talked to two friends and just told them to donate on the 5th. They will be donating \$100 or more and are not subscribed. Maybe those who havent subscribed will make up for those phony's and.....then some!

Chester Copperpot
11-03-2007, 06:58 PM
These numbers are factored in as span averages. There are several people donating \$200-\$300 who will bring up those donating \$25.

I'll be suprised if we don't break at least \$3 million.

If we break \$3 million we'll blow the lid off the news.. THats the most anybody has raised in one day. Obama did \$3 million but he needed all the help of Oprah Winfrey and like 1,500 of her rich friends donating \$2,300.

Johnnybags
11-03-2007, 07:02 PM
1,014,250 max, my guess.

drednot
11-03-2007, 07:49 PM
Anything over \$500k is gravy.

That's 10% of all of Q3 in one day.

LBT
11-03-2007, 08:36 PM
Even 1 million in one day will become talking point with the media.

They were impressed with 5 million in 3 months.

Remember, this is just a supporter rallied money bomb, not a campaign idea to impress the media. I can't see the media trying to jump on this money bomb as a failure in anyway, unless it pulls under 500k. But I can't see that happening.

I tend to think 2 million looks realistic, and if we hit that, the media will take a lot of notice. And that would put us on track to 12 million for the quarter, which puts Ron Paul undeniably in the top tier.

jgmaynard
11-03-2007, 08:42 PM
Anything with seven digits is news. 3M+, topping Oprabama will be HUGE news.

JM

Buzz
11-03-2007, 08:50 PM
I think the nay-sayers on this will be once again proven wrong.

I hope so. I've been a silent nay-sayer on this one, just going by my gut instinct. Then again, I'm a cynic. I'll be extremely happy if it breaks a mil, which is 10,000 x \$100. I predict less.

LibertyEagle
11-03-2007, 09:08 PM
I think there has been more advertisement about this than we realize. The Meetups know about it, Ron's MySpace friends are still being notified, Ron has mentioned it and Adam Curry has been promoting the heck out of it.

I think we may all be surprised. At least I hope so.

James R
11-03-2007, 09:48 PM
I have some love of guessing the numbers, since I invest in stocks every now and then.

18,500 pledges
+15% who didn't bother signing up
21,275 donors who intend to donate
65% of those will actually donate
13,800 actual donors

From this forum, a survey of 273 donors:
\$5-\$25 36 13.19%
\$30-\$49 7 2.56%
\$50-\$99 13 4.76%
\$100!!!!!!! 134 49.08%
\$101-\$200 22 8.06%
\$201-\$400 15 5.49%
\$401-\$600 1 0.37%
\$601-\$1000 3 1.10%
\$2300!!!!! 5 1.83%

I believe that people not on the Forums will donate only half as much as on the forums. Average on the forums = 137. Off the forums = \$68.5

I believe the vast majority of people are off the forums so won't bother including them in the total.

13,800 donations @ \$70 Average = \$966,000

To make it a nice round number my official estimate is that \$1,000,000 will be donated on Nov 5.

If everyone donates as promised then the figure would be:
21,275 intended donors * 137 = about \$3,000,000
Therefore, it is realistically possible that \$3,000,000 will be donated on Nov 5, but I would be truly surprised if that happens.

Also, I seriously doubt any candidate has ever gotten donations from 10,000 people in one day. So, it will be a record day, if not in dollar signs then certainly in number of donors.

Taco John
11-04-2007, 01:12 PM
Plugging the updated numbers into my equation, my new estimate is \$4,301,749

aroberso
11-04-2007, 01:32 PM
How/where will we be able to track progress throughout the day? Is the official site going to do a splash about it?

Also, thinking ahead, I presume there will need to be a press release about the results.

I'm thinking that, in addition to the amount of funds raised, one of the biggest pieces of news should be the NUMBER OF INDIVIDUAL DONORS, which hopefully will be in the 10's of thousands!!

Woohoo!

ItsTime
11-04-2007, 01:34 PM
agreed. I bump into Ron Paul people here and there and they mention the 5th and I ask did they hear about it on the internet and some of them say "no, a friend told me"

This could be hugggggggge

I think there has been more advertisement about this than we realize. The Meetups know about it, Ron's MySpace friends are still being notified, Ron has mentioned it and Adam Curry has been promoting the heck out of it.

I think we may all be surprised. At least I hope so.

jpa
11-04-2007, 03:03 PM
I say \$1.2m

Karsten
11-04-2007, 03:33 PM
I say 1.2 BILLION!

fightfortruth
11-04-2007, 07:16 PM
I just wanted to let everyone know that in case the official website goes down, here is the number to call to make your donation:

There is a chance that the servers will be overwhelmed by the
tremendous amount of online traffic. In that instance you can also donate by
calling:

1-877-RON-2008 or 1-877-766-2008

Taco John
11-05-2007, 09:32 AM
We're right on pace...

TheEvilDetector
11-05-2007, 09:38 AM
wake up and smell the coffee guys, absolute minimum will be 4mil raised.

http://paulcash.slact.net/

Taco John
11-05-2007, 02:08 PM
This is awesome

Taco John
11-05-2007, 10:08 PM
Called it... :)

Seanmc30
11-05-2007, 10:22 PM
RP was talking the other day outside the new office and said something like: "If it is anything like we are projecting............"

I'm wondering what was being projected back then, and how it compares to what the total is now.

Taco John
11-05-2007, 10:29 PM