Taco John

11-03-2007, 04:32 PM

I just thought I'd share my projection for This November 5th. I'm very excited about this, and can't wait to see how it turns out.

I've come up with a formula to project how much money might be raised on this day. Of course there's no telling how accurate the formula really is until the money comes in, but if MSM polling is "scientific," then this might as well be... :D

My projection is as such:

First, I take the official number of subscribers (as of 11/3 at 3:08pm PST):

16,896

These are people who went through the trouble to sign up. You can figure that a very healthy percentage of them will follow through. I'll run some calculations on this number down the line.

There are a number of folks who have seen the site, and plan to donate, but did not subscribe. Having been a webmaster for a long time, I can estimate a conversion rate of a conservative 3% (I think it could be as high as 5%, but since we're conservatives here...) So to get this 3% here's what I do:

Total number of visitors (223,371) - Total subscribers (16,896) = 206,475

I then take 3% of this 206,475 number to get 6,194 donors who have not signed up but plan to donate. (at the 5% high end, we have 10,323)

I now add the numbers together:

16,896 subscribers plus 6,194 non-subscribing donators = 23,090 donors

Now this is where it gets really tricky and I am making some guesses here... Some people are going to donate more, and some are going to donate less. Here's what I thinK:

I think 1% will donate the maximum amount on that day of $2300 for $531,075.

I think 5% will donate $1000 for the total amount of $1,154,512.

I think that another 5% will donate $500 for the total amount of $577,256.

I think that roughtly 79% of the people will stick to their $100 pledges for $1,824,129.

And I think that roughly 10% of the people wont donate at all that day ($0).

This would bring in an estimated $4,086,975.

If I were to use the higher-end 5% estimate from the non-subscribed donors, I come up with $4,817,895.

Not a bad day's haul for Paul... :p

I've come up with a formula to project how much money might be raised on this day. Of course there's no telling how accurate the formula really is until the money comes in, but if MSM polling is "scientific," then this might as well be... :D

My projection is as such:

First, I take the official number of subscribers (as of 11/3 at 3:08pm PST):

16,896

These are people who went through the trouble to sign up. You can figure that a very healthy percentage of them will follow through. I'll run some calculations on this number down the line.

There are a number of folks who have seen the site, and plan to donate, but did not subscribe. Having been a webmaster for a long time, I can estimate a conversion rate of a conservative 3% (I think it could be as high as 5%, but since we're conservatives here...) So to get this 3% here's what I do:

Total number of visitors (223,371) - Total subscribers (16,896) = 206,475

I then take 3% of this 206,475 number to get 6,194 donors who have not signed up but plan to donate. (at the 5% high end, we have 10,323)

I now add the numbers together:

16,896 subscribers plus 6,194 non-subscribing donators = 23,090 donors

Now this is where it gets really tricky and I am making some guesses here... Some people are going to donate more, and some are going to donate less. Here's what I thinK:

I think 1% will donate the maximum amount on that day of $2300 for $531,075.

I think 5% will donate $1000 for the total amount of $1,154,512.

I think that another 5% will donate $500 for the total amount of $577,256.

I think that roughtly 79% of the people will stick to their $100 pledges for $1,824,129.

And I think that roughly 10% of the people wont donate at all that day ($0).

This would bring in an estimated $4,086,975.

If I were to use the higher-end 5% estimate from the non-subscribed donors, I come up with $4,817,895.

Not a bad day's haul for Paul... :p