PDA

View Full Version : Dear Naysayers: Please Refute This (Or: \$1 Million Guaranteed)

greves
11-03-2007, 06:45 AM
Ok, if you're here to refute my argument that we'll get an extremely bare minimum of \$1,000,000 on November 5th, there are a couple of suggestions:

1. Don't just say "I don't believe that."
2. Don't just say "You're wrong."
3. Don't just say "I feel it in my gut."
4. Come up with an actual, logical/mathematical argument.
5. Base your numbers on some sort of factual information.

Here is my argument as to why we will get, at the bare minimum, \$1,000,000.

Thisnovember5th.com will have approximately 18,000 subscribers on November 5th.
Thisnovember5th.com will have been seen by approximately 300,000 people on November 5th.

Even if half of all subscribers don't donate, that leaves 9,000 donations. The average donation size has not been under \$75 for the past 10 days. I think it is a VERY conservative estimate that for every two people signed up and donating, only one person who has not signed up will donate. This is the hard number to estimate, and personally I think the ratio is probably closer to 1:2 than 2:1. Even so, using this very conservative estimate, that is 4,500 more donations.

Total = (9,000 signed up + 4,500 other) * \$75 = \$1,012,500

This estimate does also not take into account the daily average donation total that will, to some extent, be contributed by people who've never heard of thisnovember5th.com.

And there you have it. A VERY conservative estimate showing that we will gain at least \$1,000,000 on November 5th. Personally I think the number is likely to be much much higher: \$5M+ at least.

uncloned21
11-03-2007, 06:52 AM
I agree that we will get at least 1 mil, but that was hardly a "factual" illustration. :D

argounova
11-03-2007, 08:25 AM
that whole part about non-signing "lurkers," imho, is total bull.

the only reason that there are so many visits are the signers who have ALREADY signed going back compulsively to check on how many people had signed up in the last day/hour/few minutes.

its pretty ridiculous to think that people who want to sign up for november 5th didnt maybe 2 dozen a most... at least 4.5k of them.

and all you 5Mil'ers out there: Lol. though i appreciate the positivity.

constituent
11-03-2007, 09:03 AM
say man, it's just details. nov. 5 will succeed or fail, that simple.

NewEnd
11-03-2007, 10:11 AM
say man, it's just details. nov. 5 will succeed or fail, that simple.

it will succeed, and I would bet money it will make more than \$1,000,000

5 million is a stretch. 2 million, however, is possible.

dt_
11-03-2007, 11:28 AM
one thing's for sure though, the site won't have 100,000 pledgers by nov. 5

NewEnd
11-03-2007, 11:34 AM
one thing's for sure though, the site won't have 100,000 pledgers by nov. 5

Thats true, but I wonder if its possible by Dec 16th.

Naraku
11-03-2007, 11:46 AM
I think anyone putting it under \$1 million is being very pessimistic. I doubt the growth in subscribers is half bots and people who won't donate. I think most people aren't going to subscribe more than one us or do so if they won't donate and I don't think bots would create that much difference.

Many regulars are going to donate on November 5th, which is certainly a strong number and many who haven't donated as well as people who haven't subscribed but plan to donate something, if not \$100.

I would agree \$1 million is a bare minimum and I think, when all is said and done, it will be closer to \$2 million.

11-03-2007, 02:12 PM

NinjaPirate
11-03-2007, 02:55 PM
Thats true, but I wonder if its possible by Dec 16th.

If we get it out as soon as possible we will definitely have a better turn out!

ItsTime
11-03-2007, 03:04 PM
Adam Curry = 300,000 US listeners: He says he is donating the max that day. He has been pushing the 5th for awhile. My guess his show will be all about Ron Paul on the 5th.

300,000 US listeners say only 2% donate on avg \$100.00 that is \$100x6000=\$600,000 right there.

Adam Curry said he would bring in some big money and this is a time he really could. :D

***listening to King Solomon: Ron Paul for the Long Haul****

James R
11-03-2007, 03:22 PM
Ok, if you're here to refute my argument that we'll get an extremely bare minimum of \$1,000,000 on November 5th, there are a couple of suggestions:

1. Don't just say "I don't believe that."
2. Don't just say "You're wrong."
3. Don't just say "I feel it in my gut."
4. Come up with an actual, logical/mathematical argument.
5. Base your numbers on some sort of factual information.

Here is my argument as to why we will get, at the bare minimum, \$1,000,000.

Thisnovember5th.com will have approximately 18,000 subscribers on November 5th.
Thisnovember5th.com will have been seen by approximately 300,000 people on November 5th.

Even if half of all subscribers don't donate, that leaves 9,000 donations. The average donation size has not been under \$75 for the past 10 days. I think it is a VERY conservative estimate that for every two people signed up and donating, only one person who has not signed up will donate. This is the hard number to estimate, and personally I think the ratio is probably closer to 1:2 than 2:1. Even so, using this very conservative estimate, that is 4,500 more donations.

Total = (9,000 signed up + 4,500 other) * \$75 = \$1,012,500

This estimate does also not take into account the daily average donation total that will, to some extent, be contributed by people who've never heard of thisnovember5th.com.

And there you have it. A VERY conservative estimate showing that we will gain at least \$1,000,000 on November 5th. Personally I think the number is likely to be much much higher: \$5M+ at least.

Greves, very few of us actually think that less than \$1 million will be raised on Nov 5, and you are never going to get a 100% agreement on anything, so my advice is just don't worry about it.